Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Jacksonville +130 vs. Denver

4:05 PM EST. We might be the last outfit on earth willing to make a judgment based on one football game. Week 1 produces more bullshit conclusions than an election-year focus group. Somebody wins by 20 and they're going to the Super Bowl. Somebody loses by 20 and they're drafting first overall. We want no part of that nonsense. But Denver's 31-10 loss at Kansas City bothered us for reasons that go well beyond the final score. The Broncos produced 176 yards, nine first downs and went 2-for-12 on third down. Bo Nix threw for 131 yards, turned it over twice and looked exactly like the quarterback we've never understood the fascination with. Bo Nix is rat shit. We said it last week and we're saying it again.

Then there's Sean Payton. Denver was down multiple scores with time becoming increasingly valuable, and Payton's offense was operating as though it had dinner reservations and wanted to make sure the game didn't end too early. The Broncos were bleeding the play clock before snapping the football while trailing. Apparently nobody informed Sean and Bo that when you're losing by two touchdowns, the clock is not your friend. Payton called the loss a "slap in the face." Fine. We watched it too. The problem wasn't that Kansas City delivered the slap. The problem was Denver standing there for three hours asking for another one. Maybe we're missing something, but we haven't seen a reason to suddenly start trusting either Sean Payton or Bo Nix. 

And here comes everybody's favorite Week 2 narrative: Denver will bounce back. Of course they will. They're home, they're angry, Sean Payton probably yelled at somebody during practice, and every television expert can spend five minutes explaining how embarrassed football teams magically become better seven days later. Fuck all that. The market is already forgiving Denver. We're not. Kansas City didn't even look particularly sharp and still beat the Broncos by three touchdowns. Meanwhile, Jacksonville beat Cleveland 34-10. Big fucking deal. We're not taking Jacksonville because it beat Cleveland. Beating Cleveland isn't going on anybody's Hall of Fame résumé. We're taking Jacksonville because its a rock-solid football team being priced beneath a Denver team carrying far more reputation than substance.

Frankly, we've never been card-carrying members of the Trevor Lawrence fan club. But this number isn't asking us to crown him. It's asking us whether Jacksonville deserves to be an underdog against this Denver team. We don't trust it does. Forget Sean Payton's revenge angles. Forget Denver's record after playing Kansas City. Forget Jacksonville's record in whatever ridiculous situation somebody excavated from a database at three in the morning. That's all noise. Denver came into the season with plenty of hype, and apparently one ass-kicking wasn't enough to remove it from the price. We'll take the better football team and let everyone else wait for the great Denver bounce-back.

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