NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
San Diego St +12 -106 over UConn

Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +12 -106 BET365 +12 -110 Sportsinteraction +12 -110   888Sport +12 -110

San Diego St +12 over UConn

TD Garden - Boston, MA

Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - Sweet 16

Streaming: TBS/truTV

7:30 PM EST. The Huskies of UConn are widely considered to be the best team in the country and we’re not here to argue otherwise. UConn is also the defending champs and wouldn’t you know it, they beat this same San Diego State squad in the Championship Game last year by a score of 76-59. That’s a 17-point win and the market is betting on a repeat. We’re not.

You see, UConn has barely broken a sweat thus far with easy wins over both Stetson and Northwestern. Stetson was ranked 223rd in the country while Northwestern was ranked 41st after playing the 353rd ranked Strength of Schedule out of 362 teams. Of course UConn blew both out but this isn’t Stetson or Northwestern. SDSU’s defense is incredibly good and they also have perhaps the best player on the floor in Jaedon LeDee. Dude is an absolute monster out there.

What also sticks out to us and is something you won’t read about in many other places is that San Diego State has virtually the same team this year as they did last year when they made it to the final. However, UConn was a -5½-point favorite in that championship game and now we get this same underdog with twice as many points.

There is no question that UConn is outstanding and are supposed to win this game. This is a team with great players throughout the lineup and its offense is poetry in motion. However, winning and covering are two different animals and once again, we turn our attention to value. UConn is a #1 seed spotting inflated points against a team that battled them closely last year (the score was 60-55 with 5:41 left) before UConn won by a misleading 17 points. We now get to take back double the points with a team a year older, wiser and prepped to keep it scary close. 

Sherwood

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Our Pick

San Diego St +12 -106 (Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Clemson +257 over Arizona

Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +257 BET365 +255 Sportsinteraction +255   888Sport +255

Clemson +257 over Arizona

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Men's Basketball Championship - West Region - Sweet 16

Streaming: CBS

7:09 PM EST. On paper, this is a mid-range Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) team against the best in the Pac-12 and a #1 seed in the NCAAs, but in practice, the Tigers of Clemson bring more bite than your usual #6 seed, as the ACC has produced thus far in this tournament with Duke, North Carolina, and N.C. State joining the Tigers in the Sweet 16. Clemson got here after whacking New Mexico 77-56 in the First Round and then disposing of a very good Baylor team in the Round of 32, 72-64.

The Tigers are a team that runs deep, which showed in their first two games, as Clemson had four double-digit scorers versus Baylor with Chase Hunter leading the way with 20 points (he had 21 versus New Mexico), Joseph Girard III scoring 13 while Ian Schieffelin and big man PJ Hall added 11 points. That was an “off” night for Hall, by the way, as he averaged 18½ points per game this season. While the Tigers play a defensive game that will grind a team down, they also bring the 25th-ranked offense to the table.

Clemson is ranked 257th in adjusted tempo, while the Wildcats of Arizona are 16th. Arizona beat both Long Beach State (85-65) and Dayton (78-68) by double digits, but the Wildcats also shot 37% from downtown versus Long Beach State and 44% versus Dayton and they still barely covered the -9 points they were favored over the Flyers. Arizona lives and dies by the three-point shot, and if they fall, they’ll likely cover this number, but if for one reason or another, the Wildcats' hot shooting goes cold, the Tigers are built to clean up those boards and make them pay. One could take back the inflated points being offered up here, but we’re going to go for the jugular of the Wildcats and take Clemson to win this game outright.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Clemson +257 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 5.14)

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Alabama +168 over North Carolina

Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +168 BET365 +165 Sportsinteraction +165   888Sport +165

IMen's Basketball Championship - West Region - Sweet 16

crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Alabama +168 over North Carolina

Streaming: CBS

9:39 PM EST. According to KenPom, North Carolina is ranked as the ninth best team in the country while Alabama comes in at 14. North Carolina’s offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) is good for 16th in the country. Alabama is almost five points better, as the Crimson Tide come into the matchup with a 125.1 offensive efficiency, ranked fourth in the country.

However, major separation between the two can be found on the defensive end of the floor. North Carolina ranks sixth in the country defensively with a 93.1 defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions) while Alabama’s defensive efficiency is ranked 101st in the country at 102.3 and that is what you are going to hear and read about the most. We also have a #1 seed v a #4 seed and the 1 seed is spotting what appears to be a beatable number. Furthermore, the Tar Heels are college basketball royalty and that, too, influences the betting public into spotting the points. Finally, North Carolina is coming off two blowout wins to get to the Sweet Sixteen, which included a blowout victory over Michigan State in the round of 32 while Alabama was tied with Grand Canyon, a team without market credibility, with three minutes left in their last game before they pulled away. In terms of recency bias, North Carolina has lots more appeal than the Tide.

We don’t break down X’s and O’s. You can read about the X’s and O’s and statistical analysis in 2 million different places and rarely does that information get you to the pay window. Indeed North Carolina can win and cover here but that’s out of our hands. What we seek is value, not predictions and in that sense, we must side with the Tide.

Oddsmakers made UNC a -3½-point choice against 9th seeded Michigan State last weekend. Forget the result because results happen and in one-game anything can happen. Truth be told, oddsmakers are not sold on the Tar Heels but now because of recency bias, oddsmakers were forced to make North Carolina a bigger favorite over #4 seed Alabama than #9 seed Michigan State. How can that be? It is rare to find such an occurrence but here we are. Oddsmakers also have the data to see where the market is leaning and we promise you that the market is not leaning Alabama here.

North Carolina is a -4½ point choice here. Take the points or swallow them if you like but we’re going with Alabama to win outright because the value on them is tremendous. This is a sharp shooting underdog that can put up 100 points on any given night against any given opponent. That makes Alabama a very dangerous pup and oddsmakers know it. Keep the points.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Alabama +168 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.36)

NCAA Tournament Sweet 16
Illinois +102 over Iowa State

Posted at 4:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +102 BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +100   888Sport +100

Illinois +102 over Iowa State

TD Garden - Boston, MA

Men's Basketball Championship - East Region - Sweet 16

Streaming: TBS/truTV

10:10 PM EST. The Big Ten (B1G) and Big 12 take center stage in this nightcap, as the nation's #1 offense in the Illini of Illinois will take on the country’s top defense in the Cyclones of Iowa State (ISU). Perhaps more specifically, the Cyclones will be taking on Terrence Shannon Jr., who has haunted them throughout his career, after posting a 6-0 record against ISU back when he played at Texas Tech, where he averaged double-digit scoring in those games. Since joining Illinois last season, Shannon Jr. has become one of the best players in America, as he averages a team-high 23.3 points per game and put up 30 in Illinois' 89-63 drubbing of Duquesne in the Round of 32 last Saturday. Illinois knocked off Morehead State in the First Round, and the Illini have taken some shots from the talking heads for the “weak” path they’ve had to the Sweet 16, but we’ll note these were the same talking heads that were pumping up Morehead State as a potential Cinderella.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones beat South Dakota State, 82-65 in Round 1, and then #7 seeded Washington State in the Round of 32, 67-56, which has the market and the media hyping them as “battle-tested” after they also ran through the Big 12 tournament, beating both #3 seed Baylor and #1 seed Houston, the latter by an eye-popping 69-41 score. That’s not to say the Cyclones aren’t capable of winning this game, too, and beating another quality outfit, but ISU’s stock is at a season-high, which means it’s not time to buy, it’s time to sell. To further that point, the Cyclones have won nine of their last 10 and they’ve covered five in a row.

They say “defense” wins championships, and that may be true, but the Cyclones have had problems scoring in this tournament in the past, getting sent home after awful shooting performances the last two years. We can’t predict if the Cyclones will be on their game again tonight, but we do know that if there is even a chill in the air, Illinois is well-equipped to make them pay in transition. If ISU comes out cold (1-for-13) as they did versus Washington State and scores just four points in nine minutes, Illinois is going to boat race them. Even if ISU is as hot as they possibly could be, they are still going to struggle to compete with a roster that man-for-man is vastly superior. We get the better team and the best player on the court and plus money. Yeah, that’s a wager we’re going to make every time.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Illinois +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days25310.00-12.56
Season to Date65750.00-24.20