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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis +6 over Cleveland State

Corteva Coliseum – Indianapolis, IN

2:00 PM ET. The Vikings enter this matchup as the Horizon League’s darlings, riding a nine-game winning streak and boasting a 13-6 overall record. Meanwhile, Indiana-Purdue Indianapolis (IUPUI) trudges in at 6-13 and has dropped eight of its last ten. Throw in Cleveland State’s 12 straight wins over the Jaguars, and you have the perfect storm for an overinflated number that’s primed for the taking.

Cleveland State’s success on the surface looks convincing, but a closer inspection reveals a heavy dose of good fortune. The Vikings rank 38th nationally in KenPom’s “Luck” category, while IUPUI sits near the basement at 360th. The Jags have endured more bad beats than almost anyone, including five losses by six points or fewer in their last ten outings. This includes a January 4th matchup with these very Vikings in Cleveland, where IUPUI was tied late before eventually falling by six.

Despite their poor record, the Jaguars are a team better than their résumé suggests. KenPom’s Pythagorean Wins metric indicates they “should” have about 12 wins based on their performance, but misfortune has left them far below that mark. The market, as always, reacts to surface-level results, creating a golden opportunity for contrarian bettors to capitalize on this undervaluation.

In their last meeting, IUPUI played the Vikings tough despite being plagued by uncharacteristic issues. The Jags outrebounded Cleveland State, but 14 turnovers (above their season average of 11) and a cold shooting night (35.6%, well below their usual 42.8%) proved costly. Meanwhile, Cleveland State committed just six turnovers—less than half their average—highlighting the statistical anomaly that worked in their favor. If IUPUI can clean up those minor issues, there’s no reason they can’t compete wire-to-wire again.

The Corteva Coliseum—affectionately known as “The Jungle”—provides IUPUI with a distinct home-court edge. The Jaguars are 5-3 in their building this season, with two of those losses decided by a single possession. The energy of the crowd will be amplified by the presence of the conference’s top team, setting the stage for a highly motivated effort from the underdog.

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