NCAAB Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Southern Indiana +8½ -110 over Morehead
7:30 PM EST While Morehead State has been solid overall, it hasn’t consistently rewarded bettors in the favorite role, going just 1-1 against the spread when laying 8.5 points or more. Southern Indiana, on the other hand, has quietly been competitive in this underdog range, posting a 6-4 ATS mark when catching 8.5 or more. That tells us oddsmakers may be slightly overpricing the gap between these teams. Even though Morehead State owns a small positive scoring margin on the season, it’s only +1.1 per game — hardly the profile of a team that should be comfortably winning by double digits against comparable competition.
From a matchup standpoint, the tempo and efficiency numbers also suggest this spread may be inflated. The teams combine to average slightly more than the posted total, but opponents of both programs have scored well above this number, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on each side. Morehead State scores 76.2 points per game but allows 75.1, ranking outside the top 200 nationally in defensive scoring. Southern Indiana struggles offensively at 68.9 points per game, yet its defensive efficiency numbers are more respectable, particularly in points allowed per 100 possessions. If the Screaming Eagles can control pace and lean into a half-court game, they can shorten possessions and keep this within reach.
Rebounding and perimeter shooting further strengthen the underdog argument. Morehead State has only a modest rebounding edge on the season and actually gets outpaced from three-point range compared to its opponents. Southern Indiana, while not an elite shooting team, does generate nearly eight made threes per game — a factor that helps an underdog hang around or backdoor cover late. With Morehead State far more productive at home than on the road offensively, this number asks them to create separation against a team that has shown resilience in this role. Taking the points with Southern Indiana provides the stronger value angle, especially in what projects as a competitive, possession-based game rather than a runaway result.
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Our Pick
Southern Indiana +8½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Dayton +4½ -110 over Saint Louis
7:00 PM EST Dayton is the side tonight at home vs. Saint Louis because the setup screams “public trap.” Saint Louis is 25–2, they’re ranked (#23/#24 range), and that shiny number beside their name pulls in casual money automatically. Add in the fact they’re favored on the road against an unranked opponent, and that’s one of those classic spots where the market can get a little too comfortable backing the “better team” without asking if the price is inflated.
This is exactly why home underdogs are so attractive in college hoops — especially ones with a legitimate profile. Dayton isn’t some random team catching points; they’ve been tested and they’re at home in a tough environment. When you see a ranked road favorite laying points, it’s worth pausing and asking: is this number built for the matchup… or built for the betting public? With Saint Louis’ record and ranking, the answer often becomes “built for the public.”
The schedule gap adds fuel to it. Saint Louis’ non-conference strength of schedule is 314th, which is major red flag for a team carrying a flashy record. Dayton’s NCSOS is 153rd, and their overall SOS sits around 51st, meaning they’ve been through far more resistance. Put it all together — home dog, inflated perception on the ranked road favorite, and a massive schedule-quality discrepancy — and the play is clear: Dayton.
Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer
Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works
Straight Bets:
If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.
Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.
Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.
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Our Pick
Dayton +4½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Marquette +145 over Georgetown
7:00 PM EST There’s clear value backing Marquette in this rematch against Georgetown Hoyas, especially when you look beyond the final score of the first meeting. Georgetown’s 78-69 win came on the back of two extended runs that flipped what had been a tightly contested game. Outside of those momentum bursts, Marquette largely controlled tempo and created quality looks. That kind of game script is difficult to replicate, particularly against a team familiar with what went wrong. Revenge spots in conference play tend to carry added urgency, and with Marquette still trying to climb in the Big East standings, this sets up as a focused effort rather than a repeat letdown.
The underlying numbers also suggest the gap between these teams isn’t as wide as public perception may think. Marquette scores 75.7 points per game and shoots 43.6% from the field — slightly better than what Georgetown typically allows. Meanwhile, the Golden Eagles’ defensive issues are real, but Georgetown’s offense hasn’t consistently proven capable of capitalizing. The Hoyas average 74.7 points overall but have struggled for long stretches in conference play, going 4-11 in the league since that first win over Marquette. Their three-point production is modest, and while they rebound adequately, they don’t dominate the glass in a way that creates a clear matchup edge. If this becomes a possession-for-possession game late, Marquette’s perimeter shooting volume and playmaking give them the higher offensive ceiling.
Situationally, this is also a strong bounce-back opportunity for the Golden Eagles. After dropping their Big East opener and falling short against St. John's Red Storm despite a 25-point effort from Nigel James Jr., Marquette has every incentive to respond. Georgetown has been far more productive at home than on the road, but its recent form — 4-6 over the last 10 games with barely a positive scoring margin — shows vulnerability. Marquette’s ability to stretch the floor with over eight made threes per game and generate offense through multiple scorers creates more paths to victory. With motivation, offensive upside, and regression factors working in its favor, backing Marquette to win outright presents the stronger value angle in this conference matchup.
Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer
Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works
Straight Bets:
If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.
Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.
Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.
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Our Pick
Marquette +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
NCAAB Historical - Totals
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| Last 30 Days | 20 | 29 | 0.00 | -17.90 |
| Season to Date | 52 | 65 | 0.00 | -26.30 |