BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona +130 over Boston

Mitch Bratt (LHP- Arizona) — 3.82 ERA

Alec Gamboa (LHP- Boston) — 1.59 ERA

7:10 PM EST. This is another spot where the market appears to be giving Boston too much credit based on a very small sample of work. Alec Gamboa has posted a 1.59 ERA, but that number comes from a limited body of work and needs to be viewed in the proper context. Mitch Bratt brings a 3.82 ERA into this matchup, and the gap between the two pitchers is simply not large enough to justify the type of price Boston is being asked to carry.

Bratt has shown enough in his current work to make Arizona an attractive side, particularly with the points available. The left-hander does not need to match Gamboa's ERA to make this a competitive game. What matters to us is his ability to limit damage, stay around the strike zone and give Arizona a chance to remain within striking distance. With both pitchers working from relatively small samples, we are not going to treat either ERA as a definitive representation of what we can expect today.

The value becomes even more appealing when we are taking the points rather than demanding an outright victory. Arizona has a much larger margin for error with the run line, and a close game throughout would be enough to put us in position to cash the ticket. Gamboa's early results have been excellent, but we are not willing to price Boston as though a 1.59 ERA automatically translates into a major pitching advantage.

We are taking Arizona on the road. Both pitchers are working with small samples, and that makes the current price on Boston far too aggressive for our liking. We will take the cushion, trust Bratt to keep this game close and back the Diamondbacks to stay within the number today.

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BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Miami +225 over Philadelphia

Janson Junk (RHP- Miami) — 4.45 ERA 

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP- Philadelphia) — 2.55 ERA

6:40 PM EST. Cristopher Sanchez owns the much better ERA in this matchup, but this is strictly a numbers play for us and the current price on Philadelphia is simply too high. Janson Junk brings a 4.45 ERA into today's start, but that number alone does not justify the size of the gap between these two clubs. We are looking deeper into the current pitching profiles and putting considerably more emphasis on the underlying metrics than the surface ERA.

Sanchez has been excellent from a run-prevention standpoint, but a 2.55 ERA has created a premium price that we believe has gone too far. Junk does not need to outpitch Sanchez for Miami to cash this ticket; he needs to keep the Marlins within striking distance while the lineup takes advantage of the inflated number. The value here comes from the relationship between the pitching numbers and the betting price rather than simply choosing the pitcher with the lower ERA.

That makes this a very straightforward betting decision for us. We are not trying to argue that Junk is the superior starter, and we are not ignoring what Sanchez has accomplished. We are saying the market has made Philadelphia far too expensive, and the numbers give us enough reason to take the other side. Miami is getting the type of price that deserves our attention, particularly in a matchup where one good offensive inning can completely change the complexion of the game.

We are taking Miami on the road to beat Philadelphia. This is a pure numbers play, and the line is outrageous in our opinion. We simply cannot overlook the value being offered on the Marlins, and this is worth a play regardless of the final score. We will gladly take the inflated price and back Miami to pull the upset today.

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If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

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If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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