Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 10

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 2

NFL Week 10

 

Atlanta +6½ over Indianapolis

 

9:30 AM ET. You’ll hear all week about the Colts’ shiny new toy in Sauce Gardner, their “league-best offense,” and their return to Europe, where they beat New England two years ago. What’s not being discussed enough is that this number is off by a couple of points, and the market’s reaction to Indy’s hot start is overcooked.

 

This will be the first-ever NFL game played in Berlin, which matters only because these international games almost always turn into slogs. The four games in Germany over the last three years have averaged 31 points total, with none cracking 37. These fields are slower, the travel is brutal, and the rhythm of a normal NFL week disappears. Every single one of those factors benefits the underdog.

 

The Colts are being priced like they’re playing at Lucas Oil, but this isn’t a dome. Seven of Indy’s first eight games were indoors, and when they went outdoors in Pittsburgh last week, they coughed up six turnovers and their running game fell flat (3.1 yards per carry). Now they travel across the Atlantic on a short turnaround, while trying to integrate a new defensive star into a complex scheme.

 

Atlanta’s recent skid looks bad on paper, but they’ve been in every game. They outplayed New England between the 20s before a missed extra point cost them. Michael Penix and Drake London are starting to find rhythm, and if Bijan Robinson gets even a modest bounce-back, this is a team built to chew clock and shorten games — a perfect recipe for catching points in a low-total setting. Recommendation: Atlanta +6½

 

New York Jets +2½ over Cleveland

 

1:00 PM ET. The Browns opened as a small road underdog but were quickly bet into the favorite’s role, which says plenty about how the market perceives the post-trade Jets. We’re not buying it.

 

Cleveland hasn’t covered a road game since last October — 0-10 ATS in its last ten away from home — losing those by an average of 16 points. The Browns have looked like world-beaters at home, where their defense can pin its ears back, but on the road, that same unit loses its edge. The energy drops, the turnovers pile up, and they’ve been outscored 180-91 away from Cleveland since the start of last season.

 

The narrative is that the Jets “sold the farm” and gutted their defense at the deadline. Reality: they cashed in on two players at peak value during a lost season, and now they’ve got a free shot in a winnable game with zero pressure. The market sees a stripped-down roster; we see a loose team that just won a shootout in Cincinnati and found some life behind Breece Hall and a revitalized offensive line.

 

The Browns’ rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel has looked fine when the run game works, but Cleveland’s offense has been an anchor. They haven’t hit a pass play longer than 35 yards all season, and Gabriel’s 59% completion rate doesn’t inspire confidence behind a banged-up O-line. This is a team that’s now being asked to win and cover on the road after being favored just once away all year.

 

Meanwhile, Aaron Glenn’s Jets finally have a reason to show up. They’re healthy, they’re playing hard, and Hall gives them the ability to control tempo. The Browns can’t score quickly enough to build margin, and everything about this game script points to a grinder decided late — one that the home dog is absolutely live to win outright. The market has moved the wrong way. The value is now on the Jets.

 

New Orleans +5½ over Carolina

 

The market is telling us Carolina is suddenly trustworthy — a team with a winning record laying its biggest number in four years. That’s a dangerous assumption to make. Carolina has been playing with effort, sure, but this isn’t a team built to spot more than a field goal to anyone.

 

The Panthers are catching attention after an upset win in Green Bay, but that was more about the Packers’ incompetence than Carolina’s excellence. Now they return home in the rare role of favorite, something they’ve handled poorly for years. Since 2021, Carolina has been favored by four points or more just twice — they lost both outright. The Panthers have gone 7-2 ATS at home since last November, but most of those were in the underdog role, which is a much different psychological ask than protecting a number.

 

Meanwhile, New Orleans is getting buried by perception. The Saints have lost three straight by double digits, and their stock can’t be any lower. That’s typically where value hides. They outgained Carolina by 180+ yards in both meetings last season, yet only managed a split. The Saints still play hard under Kellen Moore, and rookie QB Tyler Shough should be more comfortable in his second start after being thrown to the wolves against a rested Rams defense off a bye.

 

The Saints traded away some familiar names, but they didn’t trade away effort. Carolina’s offensive line is banged up, their lead back might not go, and Bryce Young remains a game manager in an offense that rarely stretches the field. The Panthers have been living off turnovers and short fields; that’s not sustainable as a significant chalk. Recommendation: New Orleans +5½

Miami +9½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. Buffalo’s dominance over Miami spans seven straight wins and almost a decade of control, but every streak has its expiration date. The market is hanging a near double-digit tag on the Bills here, and that’s too big for a team that rarely covers these inflated prices. Since October 2023, Buffalo is just 6-10 ATS when favored by more than a touchdown. They’re often the right side to win but the wrong side to cover.

The Dolphins are in disarray — fired their GM, dealing with a shredded receiving corps, and down to spare parts on both sides of the ball. That’s all baked into this number, maybe even exaggerated. Tua’s best receiver last week was running back De’Von Achane, and while that paints a bleak picture, it also creates a low-expectation environment where any spark looks better than it is.

Buffalo has bigger fish to fry after this — a home date with Tampa Bay followed by a short-week trip to Houston. That makes this a classic “get in, get out” spot for the Bills. They can jump out early, drain the clock, and preserve bodies for what’s ahead. Their last four games have averaged under 45 points combined, all trending toward slower-paced, lower-risk wins.

Miami hung inside the number as a double-digit road dog in Buffalo earlier this season, tied in the fourth quarter before fading late. That was with more talent than they have now, but the point here isn’t about the Dolphins being good — it’s about Buffalo being overvalued. The Bills’ defense remains solid, though not dominant, and their injury report is piling up. If James Cook sits or is limited, that offense loses its rhythm.

This number assumes a clean, no-sweat win for a Bills team that’s been anything but consistent. The Dolphins are likely to look more competent here than they did in last week’s 28-6 loss to Baltimore, mostly because regression toward effort and pride is inevitable. Ugly underdogs are often the most profitable ones, and this is as ugly as they come. Recommendation: Miami +9½

Jacksonville -1 over Houston

1:00 PM ET. This AFC South rivalry has been a grinder for years, and everything about the number reflects that. Six of the last seven meetings have stayed under the total, and four straight have been decided by one score. That’s a lot of tight, mistake-filled football — and the market is once again expecting more of the same. The thing is, the Jags are built to handle that style better right now.

Houston’s in a tricky spot. This is their third straight home game, and after splitting a win over San Francisco with a loss to Denver, the offense still looks disjointed. More importantly, C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion, which forces Davis Mills into his first start in nearly two years. Mills knows the playbook, sure, but this is not a soft landing spot. Jacksonville has quietly become one of the league’s most disruptive defenses away from home, forcing turnovers in bunches and holding opponents to 18 points or fewer in four of five road games.

The Texans’ issues go deeper than quarterback. Their injury report is a war zone — multiple starters across the offensive line, defensive front, and secondary all banged up or missing time. That’s not the kind of attrition a thin roster survives easily. Houston has also been one of the league’s least efficient red-zone offenses, and losing Stroud’s poise there could be glaring.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, showed guts last week in Vegas. They rallied from two scores down to win in overtime, leaning on a physical run game and Trevor Lawrence’s mobility. Despite missing key receivers, they found production from depth pieces and just added Jakobi Meyers to stabilize the passing attack. The Jags’ locker room is buying back in, and a win here gives them control of the division again. Recommendation: Jacksonville -1

Minnesota +4 over Baltimore

1:00 PM ET. The market’s overreacting to Baltimore’s blowout win in Miami, a game that says more about the Dolphins’ dysfunction than it does about the Ravens’ resurgence. Lamar Jackson looked sharp, sure, but that was on extended rest and against a defense that lost its shape midway through the second quarter. Now the Ravens head indoors to a loud, unfamiliar stadium to face a team that’s quietly trending up. Minnesota’s played just one home game since mid-September, and the fan base will be in full throat.

Minnesota’s win last week in Detroit was no fluke. The Vikings went into Ford Field as a 9½-point underdog and left with a 27-24 victory. That’s the kind of result that flips a locker room’s belief. J.J. McCarthy is settling in quickly — poised, mobile, and unafraid to push the ball downfield. He’s not perfect, but the kid competes, and he’s operating behind a line that should handle Baltimore’s front. The Ravens rank near the bottom of the league in sack rate, which means McCarthy will have time to find Justin Jefferson and work the short game with motion and play-action.

Baltimore’s defense lives off chaos, not consistency. When they’re not generating pressure, they get leaky in coverage and vulnerable against the run. The Vikings’ offensive balance will test that, especially with Jefferson healthy and Andrew Van Ginkel back hunting on defense. Minnesota’s front seven doesn’t have to contain Jackson entirely — just limit his explosive runs and force him to sustain drives through the air.

This game sets up as a perfect storm for the home dog. Baltimore’s riding high after two straight wins, while Minnesota’s still being priced like the team that stumbled early without its quarterback. The Ravens have to fly north into a noise pit against a team that’s covered four straight at home versus AFC opponents. Recommendation: Baltimore +4

New England +2½ over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. There’s a quiet arrogance creeping into Tampa’s market price, and that’s usually the first crack in the dam. The Bucs have been a good story at 6-2, but they’ve built that record by feasting on bad teams and catching the rest at the right time. Now they come off a bye, laying points against a battle-tested New England team that hasn’t blinked once on the road.

The Patriots are 4-0 straight-up and against the number away from home this season, and all they do is punch the clock, defend, and out-coach the opposition. Mike Vrabel has his team playing mistake-free, opportunistic football, and the market still hasn’t caught up. Drake Maye has been nothing short of steady in his first full year under center — 74% completions, 17 TDs, four picks — all behind an offensive line that’s been reshuffled a dozen times. The kid never panics, and his situational awareness improves weekly.

Tampa’s defense has numbers that look impressive until you realize how many bad offensive lines they’ve faced. They’re elite against the run, but that’s fine — New England doesn’t want to run anyway. This is a game tailor-made for Maye to throw 40 times and pick apart Tampa’s soft zones with motion, pace, and short-area accuracy. Vrabel isn’t going to run his head into a wall. He’ll adjust, as always.

Meanwhile, Tampa’s offense continues to be held together by duct tape. Baker Mayfield is gutting through knee and oblique issues, the run game remains non-existent, and now Chris Godwin Jr. may miss another week. Without Bucky Irving, the Bucs are 24th in rushing, meaning every drive depends on Baker’s arm — and that’s not a formula you want when your quarterback is banged up and facing a defense that disguises blitzes as well as anyone in the league.

The Patriots have been on the field for ten straight weeks, and the market wants to frame that as fatigue. We see it as rhythm. They’re playing with purpose, chemistry, and growing confidence. Tampa, on the other hand, is the team that could come out flat after a week of back-patting and press clippings about how “healthy” they are. Recommendation: New England +2½

N.Y. Giants +4½ over Chicago

The market is getting way too cozy with Chicago. The Bears have been a nice story — they’ve played some energetic football and Caleb Williams has made plenty of “wow” throws — but laying more than a field goal here feels inflated. The market is pricing Chicago as if all their flaws are behind them. They’re not.

The Bears have been living dangerously. They’ve allowed 25+ points in four of their last five, they commit more penalties than almost anyone in the league, and they continue to stall in the red zone. Those are issues that don’t vanish just because you’re winning. Chicago has gone over its team total in seven of eight games, but much of that came against soft defenses that don’t blitz or disguise coverages. The Giants aren’t one of those teams.

New York’s 2-7 record doesn’t scare us. The results have been ugly, but the effort remains honest, and Brian Daboll still has his guys playing hard. Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart is improving by the week — he’s taking hits, learning to read pressure, and starting to look comfortable in rhythm throws. The Giants’ pass rush, led by Brian Burns, is built to disrupt rhythm-based passing offenses like Chicago’s. Burns has been a terror, and if he gets any help from the secondary, this game can stay tight throughout.

Chicago is a team with a lot of “fixable” problems — penalties, red-zone inefficiency, QB accuracy — but “fixable” doesn’t mean “fixed.” They’re 5-1 in their last six, yet those wins came with plenty of turbulence. Now they’re priced as if consistency has arrived. It hasn’t. This line is over-adjusted based on recent form, and that’s where we want to fade the hype.

New York has dropped three straight, but each loss has come with teachable moments. They’re growing through mistakes, not quitting because of them. Jaxson Dart’s mobility gives the Giants’ offense a dimension Chicago’s defense hasn’t had to deal with lately, and with the Bears’ pass rush still inconsistent, New York should hang around all afternoon. Recommendation: NY Giants +4½ 

Arizona +6½ over Seattle

1:00 PM ET. Seattle has been winning games, but the market keeps pricing them like they’re some kind of NFC powerhouse. They’re not. The Seahawks have been flirting with regression for weeks, escaping tight games with late scores, turnovers, or favorable bounces. Now they’re spotting nearly a full touchdown in a divisional matchup against a Cardinals team that’s quietly been one of the better underdog bets in football.

Seattle’s run of nine wins in ten tries over Arizona looks dominant on paper, but dig deeper and the cracks show. The Seahawks haven’t covered consistently at home — in fact, they’re 7-18-1 ATS at Lumen Field since November 2022. That’s a massive sample that tells you what the market refuses to acknowledge: Seattle is consistently overpriced in their own building.

Arizona has covered three straight, and the effort level remains outstanding despite a losing record. Jacoby Brissett has stepped in for Kyler Murray and stabilized everything. He doesn’t force throws, protects the football, and keeps drives alive. The Cardinals play hard, stay within the game script, and continue to reward bettors willing to hold their nose and take points with them.

Seattle’s addition of Rashid Shaheed gives them another weapon, but this offense still has stretches of inconsistency. They’ll look dominant for a quarter, then go quiet for two. It’s the same up-and-down profile we’ve seen for months. The Seahawks are winning, but they’re not dominating — and that matters when you’re being asked to cover a number this big against a team that refuses to go away.

The Cardinals’ defense has been opportunistic and tougher than expected against the run. Combine that with Brissett’s veteran calm and the fact that Arizona’s locker room clearly hasn’t quit, and we’re getting significant value here. Seattle may well win again, but they haven’t earned this kind of price tag. Recommendation: Arizona +6½

Washington +8 over Detroit

4:25 PM ET. The Lions are a fun story when things are rolling, but they’re also one of those teams that needs everything to go right to cover a big number on the road. When they get out of rhythm, Jared Goff starts hearing footsteps and Dan Campbell starts making decisions based on emotion instead of probability. They’re coming off a humbling home loss to Minnesota where Goff was sacked five times and the vaunted run game produced next to nothing. Now they’re being asked to go into Landover and spot more than a converted touchdown to a desperate opponent.

Washington’s stock couldn’t be lower after four straight losses and a primetime embarrassment in Seattle. The market is reacting to injuries and noise, not value. Jayden Daniels, Luke McCaffrey, and Marshon Lattimore are out, and that’s the kind of info the oddsmakers know the public will chase. The Commanders’ quarterback situation is less than ideal with Marcus Mariota taking over, but this is still an NFL team with a strong offensive line, a pair of capable backs, and a locker room that doesn’t quit. Teams with nothing to lose can be dangerous when getting this many points.

Detroit is 12-0 straight-up and against the spread following a loss since late 2022, but that trend has more to do with timing and scheduling than magic. The Lions are banged up on the offensive line again (Sewell and Decker both missed practice), and their depth on defense is starting to crack. The Commanders’ defense has been shredded lately, yet that unit is due for some positive regression—Seattle scored on everything last week, and that’s not sustainable.

The Lions will be looking for revenge after Washington stunned them in the playoffs last season, but revenge doesn’t cover numbers—performance does. Detroit’s offense is built on rhythm and balance, and both elements have been missing for weeks. Washington may not win outright, but this is the perfect buy-low spot against a Lions team that’s overvalued and overconfident. Recommendation: Washington +8

San Francisco +4½ over L.A. Rams

4:25 PM ET. The Rams have been one of the better stories in the NFC so far — rejuvenated quarterback, explosive offense, and a confident head coach in rhythm again. Yet when you strip away the headlines and look at the actual market context, this line makes no sense. The Rams are being priced like a top-three NFC team, while the 49ers — still loaded with talent, healthier than they’ve been in weeks, and playing with confidence — are catching over a field goal in a divisional game. That’s value.

This is a familiar dance between these two. San Francisco’s 26-23 overtime win earlier this season broke a string of Rams covers, but the game script showed how evenly matched these rosters remain. The 49ers went up 14-0 early, got dragged into a trench war, then found the answers late. That’s exactly what Kyle Shanahan’s teams do — they grind, adjust, and play situationally smart football.

The Rams, meanwhile, have been walking a tightrope. Both of their losses came on drives that stalled deep in enemy territory, and that’s a red flag when you’re being asked to lay more than a field goal. Matthew Stafford’s been excellent, but he’s also been forced to play nearly perfect to mask issues with protection and short-yardage execution. Even with Puka Nacua expected to play, the Rams’ offense is heavily dependent on Stafford’s precision, and that’s tough to sustain every week — especially against a divisional opponent that knows his tells. Recommendation: San Francisco 

Pittsburgh +2½ over L.A. Chargers

8:15 PM ER. This number doesn’t make sense on paper, and that’s exactly why we’re interested. The Chargers are riding a two-game win streak and playing at home, while the Steelers are a flawed 5-3 team with an aging quarterback and an inconsistent offense. Yet L.A. laying points here assumes their offensive efficiency hasn’t fallen off a cliff — and it has.

Losing Joe Alt is a massive deal. You can’t overstate it. Since last season, the Chargers’ passing DVOA drops twenty spots when he’s off the field, and their EPA per dropback freefalls from elite to near-bottom tier. Justin Herbert is still capable of brilliance, but when he’s under pressure — which he will be here — he starts to short-arm throws and check down early. Pittsburgh’s defensive front thrives on that exact scenario. The Steelers forced six turnovers last week against Indianapolis, and while that’s unsustainable, the pressure they bring off the edge is very real.

Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been steady — and that’s all Pittsburgh really needs with this defense. They can control tempo, shorten the game, and give themselves a chance late. The market narrative has flipped too far: the Steelers’ offense looked pedestrian despite all those turnovers last week, so now bettors are rushing to fade them. That’s when you buy low. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +2½

  

 

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