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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

Streaming:ESPN

Florida St.+2½ +105 over SMU

7:30 PM EST.Monday night, isolated game, national audience, and we doubt there will be many people rushing to the window to bet Florida State. Why would they? The Seminoles have been awful for two years, their stock has cratered, and even last week's win over New Mexico State did little to inspire confidence. SMU is the complete opposite. The Mustangs have become a legitimate ACC contender, return veteran quarterback Kevin Jennings and plenty of surrounding talent, and appear to be a program still ascending. Put these two teams beside each other right now and SMU is unquestionably the easier sell. That's precisely where our interest in Florida State begins.

Now consider the number. If SMU is the superior team—and that's certainly how the market perceives it—why are the Mustangs only -2½? Oddsmakers could have hung -3 here and we seriously doubt it would have discouraged a single SMU bettor. In fact, -2½ makes the Mustangs almost irresistible. Just win the game by a field goal and you cash. In an isolated Monday night game with tons of money coming through the windows, that half-point is one hell of a carrot to dangle in front of anyone looking to back the fashionable side. We're not biting.

Florida State's opener wasn't pretty. New Mexico State moved the football, converted far too many third downs and remained within striking distance much longer than anyone in Tallahassee would have liked. That's all baked into this number and then some. What gets lost amid all the negativity is that Florida State still has plenty of talent, Mike Norvell rebuilt extensively through the portal, and Ashton Daniels gives this offense another experienced quarterback to work with. The Seminoles were productive offensively last season despite everything that went wrong around them, and this is a completely different assignment emotionally. Nobody was circling New Mexico State. SMU under the lights on Monday night has their full attention.

This is precisely the type of game in which we want to buy a program when almost nobody else does. Florida State's reputation is in the gutter, Norvell is under enormous pressure, and SMU arrives looking like the cleaner, safer and more obvious choice. We don't want obvious. We want the side whose flaws have been advertised relentlessly and whose price reflects maximum pessimism. Do not be surprised if Florida State wins this game outright, but we'll gladly take the +2½ in what we expect to be a four-quarter fight. The market is inviting everyone to spot less than a field goal with SMU. 

Don't bite. 

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