Pinnacle +105    BET365  +105 Sportsinteraction  +105 888port  +105

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Miami +105 over Washington

Nationals Park – Washington, D.C.

6:45 PM ET. Let’s get one thing straight: the Nationals have no business being favored here. None. This is a bad baseball team with a terrible bullpen, a negative run differential, and a starter on the bump whose peripherals are crying out for regression. And yet, they’re favored. Why? Because they didn’t get embarrassed by the Mets this week? Because they “fought hard”? Please.

Washington got swept. They blew a gem from MacKenzie Gore. They coughed up leads. They ran out of arms. And now they’re supposed to be chalk because they “looked competitive”? That’s a narrative, not a number. And narratives don’t pay.

Miami’s no juggernaut either — let’s not pretend otherwise — but the Fish have been in games. They’ve dropped six of eight, but all six losses were by two runs or fewer. That’s not flailing — that’s coin-flip variance. They just hung 11 runs on Tampa. They’ve been right there. And nobody cares. We do.

Edward Cabrera gets the nod for Miami. His ERA (4.04) looks pedestrian, but the supporting cast is sharp: 3.45 xERA, 11.1 K/9, and a bloated .336 BABIP that’s bound to normalize. This is a guy who misses bats and doesn’t get the breaks — perfect buy-low candidate. His counterpart, Mitchell Parker, is the inverse. ERA over 4.40, but a .255 BABIP and just 6.1 K/9? That’s not pitching well, that’s pitching lucky. And it won’t last.

Behind Parker? The worst bullpen in the National League — dead last in ERA (5.70), WHIP (1.58), and strikeout rate. That’s a landmine waiting to explode. Miami has the edge on the mound, a push at the plate, and the superior bullpen — yet they’re the underdog. That’s our cue. This is a mispriced game, plain and simple.

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Pinnacle -1½ +145    BET365  -1½ +145 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +145  888port  -1½ +145

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Boston -1½ +145 over New York Yankees

Fenway Park – Boston, MA

7:10 PM ET. We backed the Yankees yesterday because the number was off and the matchup tilted in their favor. They won, didn’t cover, and now we flip the script because that’s what value demands. This market doesn’t hand out rewards for loyalty — just opportunities. And tonight, the value lies with the Red Sox.

Boston isn’t getting a lot of love. They’re two games under .500 and up against a team with a shiny 42-25 record. But this line has nothing to do with standings or reputation. It’s about pitching — and Garrett Crochet is an absolute menace right now. His surface stats (2.35 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) only scratch the surface. The deeper you dig, the sharper the fangs: 11+ K/9, 2.65 FIP, 2.93 SIERA, and a ground-ball rate near 47%. The kid is painting corners, changing eye levels, and carving hitters like a surgeon. Yeah, the Yankees touched him up last time out — but it was smoke and mirrors. One bad inning, a couple flared singles, and that’s baseball. The metrics say it wasn’t real.

On the other side? Ryan Yarbrough. A soft-tossing lefty with a profile that doesn't play in Fenway. He’s sporting a 4.47 FIP, he doesn’t miss bats, and he gives up loud contact. Boston already torched him for eight runs in four innings less than a week ago. Nothing about his stuff suggests he’ll fare any better this time around — especially against a Sox lineup that crushes southpaws (.272 average, second in MLB). That’s not a one-off.

This number is soft because the perception is skewed. The public sees “Yankees +1.5” and salivates. But the books didn’t miss. They’re daring you to take the team with the better record, the bigger brand, and the more casual money behind them. We won’t bite. Boston is the right side, the right pitcher, and the right matchup.

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Pinnacle -1½ +190    BET365  -1½ +190 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +190  888port  -1½ +190

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

L.A. Angels -1½ +190 over Baltimore

Camden Yards – Baltimore, MD

7:05 PM ET. The first thing that jumps off the board here is the total: 10. Not 8.5, not 9 — ten flat. That’s a loud number. It screams volatility, crooked innings, and bullpen meltdowns. And when totals hit double digits, you want the underdog. You want the chaos. You want the team that can hit a three-run bomb and flip the script in a hurry. That team, tonight, is the Angels.

Let’s cut straight to the power. In games where offense is expected to drive the outcome, you lean on home run potential. L.A. ranks fourth in the majors with 96 bombs, 23 more than Baltimore. That’s not noise — that’s thunder. Even if Baltimore is a strong club on paper, they’re not built to trade haymakers if this turns into a shootout. The Angels are.

Offensively, this is an even fight. OPS? Angels at .698, Orioles at .693 — virtually identical. The Angels have a slight edge, and in a game where every run matters, that’s enough to tilt the scales — especially when you’re getting +135.

As for the pitching? Pure sludge. Jack Kochanowicz vs. Charlie Morton might be the least inspiring mound matchup on Friday’s board. Kochanowicz has a bloated 5.61 ERA, while Morton’s sitting at 6.59. FIPs over 5.00 for both, elevated WHIPs, and no suggestion from BABIP that either is due for some miraculous turnaround. This isn’t bad luck — it’s bad pitching. Add in two bullpens ranked near the bottom of the AL, and we’re likely looking at a game decided by whichever offense lands more punches. Enter the Angels. They’ve quietly won series against Seattle and Boston before brooming Oakland. That’s not nothing. This team has shown life, and they’re not being priced accordingly here. Baltimore’s a better team on paper, but baseball isn’t played on paper — it’s played on fields like Camden Yards where the wind can push a 345-foot fly ball into a two-run shot.

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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Francisco +145 over LA Dodgers

Dodger Stadium – Los Angeles, CA

10:10 PM ET. You can’t ask for a cleaner setup. The Dodgers are rolling out their shiny new toy, and the market is eating it up like it’s gospel. Meanwhile, Logan Webb just keeps showing up, punching the clock, and dealing — and nobody seems to care. That apathy is our edge.

Let’s start with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He’s got the pedigree, the ERA (2.78), and the highlight reel to match. But dig into the stat sheet and the shine starts to wear. His .250 BABIP is among the lowest in the league, meaning he’s benefitting from some serious good fortune. Soft liners are turning into outs. Missed spots are being fouled back. He’s walking more than 3 per nine, and eventually, the ball is going to find grass. This guy’s been great — but not as great as the market thinks.

Now cue Logan Webb. Same ERA (2.58), but a pedestrian 5-5 record because his offense ghosts him more often than not. Still, Webb’s command is elite — 1.75 BB/9 — and he’s keeping barrels to a minimum despite one of the worst BABIPs in baseball (.342). That’s not bad pitching, that’s bad luck. And yet, here he is, outperforming Yamamoto in FIP (2.13 vs. 2.90), SIERA (2.55 vs. 3.05), and WAR (2.8 to 1.9). Every advanced metric says Webb is better, period.

Then there’s consistency. Webb has more quality starts than almost anyone in the league. He gives you six, three or fewer, like clockwork. That’s a stabilizer, and it gives us a fighting chance in a game the books are pricing like it’s a mismatch.

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