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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

N.Y. Mets over Philadelphia

5:08 PM EST. Two teams radiating dangerous levels of unfiltered chaos magic threaten to rip New Jersey apart along Route 195. This series is what you get when you pit two clubs against each other who are utterly incapable of playing a normal baseball game.

The Phillies made a calculated choice in saving Aaron Nola (RHP - PHI) for the third contest. CitiField is a more pitcher-friendly environment than Citizens Bank Park, and the one knock on Nola is the gopher ball; he surrendered 30 of them this year, leading the National League. The fact that he was 12% better than average by DRA- despite his home run proclivity tells you how great he is when he’s not hanging his knuckle curve. His big breaker is his best putaway pitch, generating a 37.1% whiff rate.

Sean Manaea (LHP - NYM) is the best Mets starter… probably? He and Luis Severino tied for the team lead with 2.8 WARP. His 95 DRA- was second among starting pitchers to Tylor Megill’s 91, and Megill is being used as a reliever in the playoffs. His season pivoted on July 30 when he faced the Twins when he dropped the sinker and cutter out of his arsenal completely, opting for a four-seamer/sweeper/changeup mix. The results spoke for themselves: seven innings, two hits, one walk, 11 strikeouts, and no runs allowed. In his next outing on August 5, he threw seven more shutout innings, and the sinker and cutter were never seen again for the rest of the year. He faced the Phillies in his penultimate start of the regular season, allowing only three baserunners over seven innings, but two of them were home runs by Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.

Then there’s the bullpens. The best way to summarize the performance of both bullpens is as follows: the winning pitcher of Game Two was Jeff Hoffman, who retired the only batter he faced in the top of the ninth. That brought his NLDS ERA down to 81.00 from ∞. The Phillies bullpen has allowed 10 runs in six innings. Of the six relievers they’ve deployed, only Carlos Estévez is unblemished. That’s through two games.

The Mets have been only marginally better, allowing five runs in 9.2 frames. Three of those runs reside on Edwin Díaz’s ledger when he failed to protect a 4-3 lead in the eighth inning on Sunday. Megill took the loss in the ninth when he gave up the walk-off hit to Castellanos.

Both bullpens are rested following the travel day—that two-hour drive from South Philly to Queens is arduous—but is there anyone out there worth trusting? Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Orion Kerkering all appeared in both games for the Phillies, and you know how that turned out. The Mets have thrust José Buttó into a high-leverage role. José. Buttó.

Philadelphia will face a left-hander for the first time this postseason—granted, it has only been three games. That will make things tougher on their big lefty bats such as Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Brandon Marsh, and possibly Stott if he makes it into the lineup. They have an even 100 DRC+ (Deserved Runs Created) against left-handed pitching this season, down from their 106 DRC+ against righties.

The Mets should be up 2-0 in the series. They’re not getting outplayed, out-hit or out-anythinged and therefore should probably not be an underdog at home with their best starter going.

Sherwood

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