Cleveland @ Philadelphia
Cleveland +160 over Philadelphia

Pinnacle +159 BET365 +160 Sportsinteraction +150 888Sport +160

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cleveland over Philadelphia

6:40 PM EST. Ben Lively (RHP - CLE) has a wide variety of pitches, as he brings five offerings over 10% of the time against lefties, including his four-seam (36.1%), sinker (20.4%), sweeper (15.4%), changeup (15.1%), and curveball (10.9%). Versus the Phillies' big lefty bats (which include Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper), Lively’s sweeper (.226 wOBA) is his most interesting pitch, but his changeup (.238 wOBA) and curveball (.142 wOBA) are also effective tools in his toolbox. Lively might lack the strikeout upside, but he's an unexciting pitcher who holds value as an underdog in this spot.

The Phils are the only team in the majors that has a win percentage over .600 (64-38), and that has them overvalued in the market. Perhaps Philadelphia ends the season in first place overall and with that high winning percentage, but if they don’t, which is far more likely, there is going to be great value in fading them here in the second half of the season.

Today, the Phils will send Cristopher Sánchez (LHP - PHI) out for his 20th start of the season, after he took the loss last Saturday vs. the Pirates where he gave up just two runs, but also only struck out two in 5.2 IP. On the year, Sánchez has an ERA of 2.97, but his xERA is higher at 3.59. Like the Phils, Sánchez is incredibly overvalued and we are going to attack them today. Last we checked, the Guardians are a pretty damn good ball club and getting them at this inflated price is too good to pass up.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

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Play:


Our Pick

Cleveland +160 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)

Seattle @ Chicago
Chicago +149 over Seattle

Pinnacle +149 BET365 +145 Sportsinteraction +145 888Sport +145

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Chicago over Seattle

8:10 PM EST. Drew Thorpe (RHP - CHI) has been locked in over his last five starts by allowing five earned runs over 30 IP, with 20 strikeouts. Thorpe is doing a great job of limiting the damage, but he’s also having control issues with 10 BB in that stretch. He has a great matchup today versus a Mariners team that is striking out 31.1% of the time versus RHP over the past month with a .194 batting average and a 77 wRC+. Thorpe only has a 0.0 overall rating but a 1.2 strikeout rating, which should lead to plenty of strikeout success.

George Kirby (RHP - SEA) is a fine pitcher, and there is no denying his quality and the fact he has a chance to pitch a gem every time he goes to the mound, but we are not in the business of predicting whether or not that is going to happen. Kirby does have eight quality starts in a row, but he is just 2-2 in those games because the Mariners struggle to score runs. Despite being 53-51 and one game back of Houston in the AL West, the Mariners are ranked 28th in the bigs in runs scored at just 3.75 per game. Even with Kirby on the mound, the M’s are a weak, weak favorite. Overlay.

Sherwood

Pinnacle takes some of the lowest fees on all users’ bets, meaning it’s able to offer some of the best value odds on the market. Compared to other major, well-known sportsbooks, Pinnacle offers superior average odds pricing. Pinnacle’s low betting margins and high betting limits is the best in the biz and will save you thousands of dollars over your betting life.

For instance, a baseball game at most sportsbooks has 20 to 25 cent margins

Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

That’s a 25 cent margin but at Pinnacle, it’ll be an 9 cent margin (see example)

Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

If you bet on sports daily, Pinnacle is a must have because of their low margins.

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Play:


Our Pick

Chicago +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days22350.00-14.92
Season to Date1171590.00-16.06