Posted at 08:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle N/A BET365 -110 Sportsinteraction -105 888Sport N/A

No Runs in First Inning: CLE @ BOS

Best Odds: -105 at Sportsinteraction

1:36 PM EST. The market doesn't believe in the Red Sox or Guardians' starters today. Most sportsbooks are anticipating a high-scoring game early, perhaps expecting regression since only one of the three games in their current series produced a healthy amount of scoring in the first 5 innings. Game one yielded no early points, while game three saw only 2 points in total as Boston's Tanner Houck allowed just 3 hits in a sterling performance at Fenway last night. Just 15 short hours later, Boston and Cleveland will conclude the first of two inter-league series in the early afternoon on Thursday, as two throwers who hope to become mainstays battle it out in the finale.

Carlos Carrasco has seen plenty in his 15-year pro career, one that's been riddled by injury and inconsistency, but the 37-year old undoubtedly had his best years with Cleveland (2014-2020, to be exact). After a rocky three seasons with the New York Mets, where he served mostly as a clean-up guy, Carrasco gets another shot at relevance in "The Land," where he hopes to finish his career on a high note. In a short sample size; so far, so good. Carrasco hasn't been perfect, but his current form is promising.

After a rough opener against the Athletics Carrasco has settled down, showing poise against the Twins and Yankees in two recent starts. He allowed just 1 run in each affair, and except for a double by Aaron Judge he held the high-powered Yankees' lineup to just 5 hits in just under 5 innings. It's early, but some of his early marks are noteworthy. He owns a 77.3% LOB (left-on-base) rate, which would be the third-highest average of his career if he could sustain it all season, and he's permitted 0 home runs. Carrasco's fast-ball, although not thrown with the same velocity as his hayday, is steady at 91.3 mph, and he still has one of the best change-ups in baseball, a style that few hitters have figured out.

It helps that the Red Sox are an average to poor offense. Boston has managed 23 home runs in 19 games, a top-5 data-point, but they're a very average slugging team (15th overall), their batting average is a pedestrian .229 (23rd), and their weighted on-base average (wOBA) is just .308, good for 21st among 30 programs. It's no surprise that Boston's bats have cooled down against a top-tier pitching squad, and we have little doubt that Carrasco can't handle their lineup early.

We won't spend as much time on Brennan Bernardino, mostly because his true form is still a giant question mark, but what you should know is that he basically forced Boston's hand into giving him a bigger role. Initially relegated to triple A in March, despite a perfect 0.00 ERA in 7 Grapefruit League appearances in spring training, Bernardino has since been called up from the bullpen to assist in four games over the past week. He's made the most of those 5 innings, allowing just 2 hits and 1 run, although that 1 run came on Monday against the same foe he'll pitch against today. In any case, Bernardino may feel "new" but he's been throwing in the minor leagues for 10 years. The 6'4" leftie's biggest professional sample size was last season, when he pitched 50 innings at a formidable 3.20 ERA and 80% LOB rate. The seasoned triple-A thrower has shown poise for his team, and we imagine he'll take full advantage of today's opportunity.

Markets must put a 0-run first inning at high-value, but that doesn't mean it's unlikely. Carrasco and Bernardino are both better than advertised, each with their own reasons to show out for their roster this afternoon. And while the ever-elusive concept of regression is at play, neither lineup has managed a first inning run yet in this series and we see little evidence that this pattern will suddenly change in this battle. Expect another quiet first inning before the bats get hot.

Farley

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------