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+200  +195   +200

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with Colorado +206.

Colorado +206 over St. Louis

1:15 PM EST. How the f**k is Colorado going to pull this one out? Almost impossible, right? Adam Wainwright (RHP - St. L) wins games while Anotonio Senzatela (RHP - COL) wins stuffed animals at the local carnival in the ball-tossing games. Wainwright has a 3.27 ERA after 23 starts while Senzatela has a 4.67 ERA after 18 starts. However, Wainwright pitches half his games in pitcher-friendly St. Louis while Senzatela pitches half his at the most hitter-friendly venue in the history of MLB. Furthermore, Wainwright has a 4.67 xERA. His swing and miss rate last game was 3%. His fastball velocity and his swing and miss rate is trending downward. His sinker (29.2% usage) does not miss many bats, as he has a 2.6% swing and miss rate with the pitch. At age 40, the veteran Wainwright continues to deliver helpful results for his team’s quest, but his below-average skills aren't buying his 2022 ERA. He is always at the mercy of Batting Average on Balls in Play and his defense, so why wouldn’t he be priced like he’s Bob Gibson?

Colorado activated Antonio Senzatela from the injured list on July 22 when he started against the Brewers. Prior to the injury he had regressed from what was a palatable profile for a Colorado starting pitcher the last couple of years. More walks, less groundballs, less swinging strikes and some worse hit/strand rate luck had him with a 4.95 ERA (4.86 xERA) and a 1.80 WHIP over innings. In 31 innings since returning, he’s been a whole lot better but one wouldn’t see it unless one delved deep under the hood. It’s also worth noting that Senzatela has eight pure quality starts in 18 attempts. That’s an impressive number.

Pure Quality Starts is the next step in following pitching lines. The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

In Pure Quality Starts, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "Pure Quality Start Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

1. The pitcher must have gone more than 6 innings. This measures stamina.

2. He must have allowed fewer hits than the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. He must have struck out at least five batters. This measures dominance.

4. He must have a 3.0 K/BB ratio, or at least 3 Ks if he had zero walks. This measures command.

5. He must not allow any home runs. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

A perfect Pure Quality Start score would be 5 (5 categories) Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about Pure Quality Start is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event. Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

In any case, Senzatela’s groundball rate since his return is 60% and his xERA is 3.47. This starter for the Rockies is pitching better right now than a lot of pitchers in MLB. He pitches mostly to contact but he’s becoming more difficult to hit with each passing start and is absolutely worth a bet here against the Cardinals with Wainwright starting.

One last thing….yesterday we suggested that Cal Quantrill was an absurd price (-220) against Detroit. Well, Detroit had a 4-2 lead going to the eighth inning where Cleveland would score six times. On paper, we lost that game, however, if one has access to LIVE Betting, one should never lose money in a game like that. Cleveland was +475 LIVE going to the 8th inning. A small wager to buy out of your liability and barely hurt your bottom line is always a prudent move and is also the reason we do not play games in the first five innings. After five innings, Detroit had a 3-1 lead and after six innings, Detroit had a 4-1 lead. After six, one could have bought back some Cleveland at +340. Anyway, the point is that you have options should your team be leading after five innings or anytime at all. When you’re taking back big prices and your team is leading, you should not lose anything if you have access to LIVE BETTING. One could have even guaranteed themselves a significant profit buying more than your liability.

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+165  +160   +160

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with Oakland +168.

Oakland +168 over Texas

2:05 PM EST. Right back on the A’s here after they belted out nine hits and scored seven runs as a significant underdog yesterday. While we like the Rangers as a live underdog, they cannot be favored in this range over an Oakland team that has been winning frequently since the All-Star break.

Who the f**k is Dane Dunning (RHP - TEX) to be favored in this range? He has a 4.12 ERA which is almost right in line with his 4.21 xERA, which suggests he’s about as average as it gets. Not that there's anything wrong with average, especially when said pitcher is taking back a price, in which this average starter is spotting a price like he’s Justin Verlander pitching for the Astronauts.

Dunning throws 89 MPH. His swing and miss rate is a very average 10.4%. He still owns a plus groundball rate but his velocity, K%, BB% look average at best. Stagnancy might be the word if not for 2019 Tommy John surgery. Has time to develop, but his upside looks limited and we’ll repeat that this is a big overlay.

The Athletics promoted Zach Logue (LHP - OAK) to the majors for the first time in his career back in mid-April. Acquired from the Blue Jays in March 2022, Logue has spent the majority of his career as a starter. He is a short, control-oriented pitcher who led the Blue Jays organization in strikeouts in his breakout season in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A. He increased his strikeout rate by upping his velocity to the 90-95 mph range and adding a hard cutter/slider to his mix. All of his pitches are difficult to elevate and he keeps the ball in the yard. Logue has proven difficult for right-handed hitters to make hard contact against. He isn’t overpowering by any means, but he can command his fastball extremely well. He is savvy enough to adequately sequence his fastball, slider and improved changeup. He has been up and down this year but A’s management is also savvy enough to know when to demote and promote.

Logue has thrown 41 innings at this level this year. A solid outing against the Astros in early July is just one feather in his cap but it wasn’t enough to secure Logue a spot on the pitching staff. That was Oakland allowing him to thrive and savior a sweet start for some time before being asked to start again. Logue is certainly a risk but he’s a superior risk taking back this price than Texas is spotting this absurd price in a game Oakland can absolutely win.

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+125  +120   +125

Posted at 10:45 AM EST and are subject to change.

Pinnacle has the best price here with Toronto +131.

Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees

7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays head to New York after a big win last night over Baltimore to salvage a game in the three-game series. We say big win because the Blue Jays were taking a lot of heat in the media the past few days. The entire country was coming down hard on them and there is no chance that they were not feeling the heat. At the very least, the talented Blue Jays will go into Yankee Stadium feeling much better than they would have if they had lost again last night.

As for the Yanks, well, they, too, were in a big funk before pulling out a miracle win last night when they scored three runs in the bottom of the 10th to beat Tampa 8-7. The Yanks celebrated like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. The only thing missing was Liza Minneli singing New York, New York on top of the Yankees dugout during the celebration.

Speaking of taking some heat, Jose Berrios (RHP - TOR) is taking far, far more than he deserves because his surface stats are so poor. Dude has a 5.61 ERA after 23 starts. His poor contributions was magnified even more when the Blue Jays were in the midst of a big funk and Berrios was tagged for eight runs in four innings in his last start v Cleveland. That’s not a good look and it’s not easily forgettable for a fickle market, especially in Canada where the Jays are under immense scrutiny right now. However, we can easily ignore Berrios’ last start and also ignore his surface stats. You see, José Berríos started the season slow, but check out his monthly xERA trend: 5.11, 4.64, 3.81, 3.11. His stats rebounded in a big way during July (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 36 IP). Few pitchers got strike one (69%) or threw more overall strikes (30% Ball%) than Berríos. His stuff and fastball velocity are both on an uptick, too.

Frankie Montas (RHP - NYY) is not enjoying the bright lights of New York. In just 16 innings covering four starts since arriving here, he has walked nine batters while posting an ERA/xERA split of 5.63/5.00. Prior to his arriving here, he was amazing, which was why the Yanks gave up quite a bit to get him. We’re certainly not counting Montas out but pitching in New York can have a negative effect on some. He’s not the first pitcher to flame out in New York after posting great skills elsewhere. Some pitchers/players cannot stand the pressure so we’ll see how this one plays out. Montas’ sample size in New York is much too small to establish anything just yet but at the very least, it’s there and the Blue Jays are a great underdog almost every time they are priced as such.