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Posted at 2:00 PM ET. Odds are subject to change

Edmonton +110 over Dallas

Western Conference Final – Game 1

American Airlines Center – Dallas, TX

8:30 PM ET. OT included. You’re going to hear a lot this week about revenge. About how Dallas is still bitter over last spring’s exit at the hands of the Oilers. You’ll hear quotes from Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen, and even new blood like Mikko Rantanen about “changing the script” and “unfinished business.” You’ll be reminded — ad nauseam — that this is Dallas’ third straight trip to the conference finals and that this time, they’re ready. That narrative is out there, and the market has bought it wholesale.

The Stars are a rock-solid team. They’re deep, defensively sound, and battle-tested. No argument there. They’ve earned their way through Colorado and Winnipeg, and they’ve done it with strong special teams and balanced scoring. But we’re not here to throw flowers at the Stars’ feet. We’re here to find value, and that value lies squarely with the Oil.

Let’s rewind the tape. Edmonton’s opening round started ugly — down 0-2 to L.A. with Stuart Skinner stapled to the bench. It looked bleak. But since then? The Oilers have won eight of their last nine, finished the Vegas series with back-to-back shutouts, and allowed just 1.67 goals per game in that span. Say that out loud. This is an Edmonton team — long mocked for being allergic to defense — and they’re clamping down.

The Oilers’ evolution has been dramatic but under-discussed. Skinner found form. Bouchard is playing like a top-five defenseman in the league. The depth scoring is real — not just filler around McDavid and Draisaitl. Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, Corey Perry, and Dylan Holloway have all chipped in meaningful minutes and moments. Edmonton is no longer a “top-heavy” side. They are layered, balanced, and — most importantly — defending.

We don’t disagree that this is a tight matchup. What we dispute is the assumption that Dallas holds a real edge. Edmonton just shut down a team (Vegas) with more weapons than Dallas. They did it with discipline, structure, and a killer instinct that’s been missing in years past. The last time the Oilers were in this building, they beat the Stars 4–1. That game was barely discussed — because when Edmonton dominates, people act surprised. When Dallas wins methodically, they act like it’s confirmation. We’re not going to fall for it.

This is a true coin flip. Maybe 51/49 one way or the other. In those spots, we trust our eyes and the value. Right now, the Oilers are every bit as good — if not better — than Dallas. They’re hotter, healthier (Ekholm’s return looms), and more dynamic. The revenge narrative is just noise. What matters is the price. Let the Stars stew on last year. Let the Oilers go back to work.

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