Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Indianapolis +6½ -110 over Kansas City
8:20 PM EST. Welcome to the NFL zigzag, one of the easiest ways to donate money to bookmakers while convincing yourself you're making an adjustment. Last week everybody loved Denver. The Broncos had offseason hype, Kansas City had spent months being questioned, and Patrick Mahomes and company weren't exactly entering the season surrounded by their usual aura of invincibility. Then Monday night happened. Kansas City beat Denver 31-10 in front of the entire country, and now everyone who lost money betting against the Chiefs has learned his lesson. Never bet against Mahomes. Kansas City is back. Where do I sign? That's the zigzag, my friends. Lose with Denver against Kansas City on Monday and come right back Sunday night betting Kansas City against Indianapolis. Except Kansas City wasn't nearly as dominant offensively as that final score suggests.
Mahomes threw for only 172 yards. The Chiefs didn't suddenly rediscover some unstoppable passing attack. They ran for 220 yards, played excellent defense and benefited from Denver being absolutely fucking dreadful. That's an important distinction. Kansas City deserves credit for taking care of business, but we're not upgrading the Chiefs into an offensive juggernaut because Sean Payton and Bo Nix showed up looking like they had met each other in the parking lot before kickoff. The final score was spectacular. The performance underneath it was considerably less frightening.
Now flip the television to Indianapolis. If you bet the Colts last week, congratulations—you probably don't want to hear the word Indianapolis again until basketball season. Baltimore destroyed them 41-23, and that's exactly what makes this number so appealing. Nobody gets his ass handed to him, tears up the ticket and immediately says, "You know what I need next Sunday? More Colts." Human nature says the opposite. Fade the team that just burned you and bet the team that just made somebody else look stupid.
Kansas City looked great on the scoreboard. Indianapolis looked terrible. Put them together in prime time and the betting public doesn't need a handicapper. The decision practically makes itself. Chiefs. We'll take the other side, and we'll gladly take +6½, one of our favorite numbers when backing an NFL underdog.
Kansas City can win by three, four, five or six and we'll still be standing there with a winning ticket. We're not asking Indianapolis to erase last week, "establish the run," "control the clock" or perform any of that handicapping Mad Libs bullshit. We're betting the market. One nationally televised result has restored everyone's faith in Kansas City, while one blowout has made Indianapolis radioactive. Now the two meet under the lights, where that perception gets magnified even further. Let everyone else zigzag from last week's loser to last week's winner. We'll grab the ugly Colts and 6½ and see if Indianapolis can knock the barbecue sauce off Kansas City..
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Our Pick
Indianapolis +6½ (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
