John Deere Classic
PGA Wagers

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Posted June 29 at 12:30 PM EST prior to tee-off and are subject to change. 

John Deere Classic

There’s an unlikely trio of favorites at the top of the betting market this week, with Sahith Theegala joined by Webb Simpson and Adam Hadwin. Defending champion Lucas Glover will attempt to regain his crown, and he will be joined in Illinois by fellow former JDC winners Zach Johnson and Ryan Moore. This is a good week to bet because the field is soft and perhaps we can find a real sleeper to be on the leaderboard come Sunday.

Course Preview

One of the reasons that the John Deere Classic struggles to attract a quality field is because of the generic nature of TPC Deere Run. D.A. Weibring’s design looks gorgeous, make no mistake, but it’s a fairly characterless 7,268 yard Par 71 that is as easy as it gets on the PGA TOUR – Michael Kim won here with a score of -27 back in 2018. The fairways are as expansive as they come, and the Bentgrass greens – which run at around 12 on the stimpmeter – are nice and receptive. So where do the demons lie? Well, water is in play on five holes and there are around 80 bunkers on the property, but really the peril of TPC Deere Run is only a factor if the wind blows. Generally speaking, around 12 of the holes tend to average under par, with the three Par 5s leading the way alongside the 361-yard Par 4 14th, which leaves most in the field with a flick wedge in if not a putt for eagle.

What We’re Looking For

This is the part where we have to come up with a profile of a player that we trust will thrive. It virtually could be anyone because the course is known for not being difficult. Truth be told, this is an event which has been won in its last three renewals by Lucas Glover, Dylan Frittelli and Michael Kim – make of that what you will.

There’s no specific modus operandi off the tee – Ryan Moore, in T2, averaged 282 yards off the peg last year and Adam Schenk, in T4, some 317 yards, and the differences in their accuracies (91% vs 64%) shows that there’s nothing cohesive to be learned. Unusually, just three of the top-10 players home last year ranked inside the best 10 for the SG: Approach stat – another factor that makes TPC Deere Run so idiosyncratic. But here’s the ranking for the top-10 on the leaderboard for SG: Putting – 19-11-4-1-46-2-24-3-40-6. In short, a win at the John Deere Classic can be earned on the greens from a mediocre ball-striking display – that’s what makes this event so difficult to handicap.

Again, there is nothing particularly unique or interesting about TPC Deere Run, and that also manifests itself in there being no clear prerogative as to how to win the John Deere Classic. Normally in these situations, we try to find correlating courses to act as a guide, but in truth, TPC Deere Run is just a generic golf course. It is now time to throw some darts.

Chesson Hadley 125-1

There were seven rounds of 63 here last year? One of those belonged to Chesson Hadley, and he warmed up for a return to TPC Deere Run with a fine effort at the Travelers Championship. He ranked inside the top-25 for SG: Tee-to-Green there, and perhaps most pertinently, Hadley ranked sixth for SG: Putting on his way to a solo fifth finish in Connecticut. It’s slim pickings this week, and we have to take these positives where we can find them (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Sam Ryder 125-1

By ranking in eighth place for SG: Approach at the Travelers, Sam Ryder picked up some noteworthy form at an opportune time. It’s particularly relevant because he finished T2 at TPC Deere Run in 2018 and T18 a year later, so this is a venue he clearly enjoys. Bringing with him quality with irons and wedges in hand from last week does him no harm whatsoever. While haplessly inconsistent, Ryder does have a handful of top-10 finishes to his name on the PGA TOUR this term, and that shows that he can pop when the conditions are right. He ranks 20th ON TOUR in Approaches from 125-150 yards and 24th in Approaches from 150-175. At this price in this field, he’s worth a bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).

Brandon Hagy 300-1

Read expert picks for the John Deere Classic just about anywhere and you’ll see the same thing from everyone. Guys like J.T. Poston at 45-1, C.T. Pan at 50-1, Patrick Rodgers at 30-1. Sahith Theegala at 22-1, Nick Hardy at 33-1 and Denny McCarthy at 25-1 for instance are some of the more popular picks this week. These so-called experts wouldn’t go near Poston, Pan or Hardy if they were 150-1 but at 25-1, they can’t pull the trigger fast enough. Of course, any of those popular pick pros can win but there are 25 or more golfers at 80-1 or better that have just as good a shot and one of those guys is Brandon Hagy.

Californian born and raised, the switch to Bentgrass greens won't faze Brandon Hagy in the slightest, and consequently, he will be looking to get back on track after some difficulties this year. Wildly inconsistent, Hagy is capable of producing excellent golf when the going is good – as he has shown with solo second at the Honda Classic earlier last year and also a T8 in Detroit. Room off the tee is always welcome with this bomber, who can send his drives a long, long way in pretty much every direction off the tee. But as a decent scrambler, who has delivered a putting improvement of late, Hagy is someone who can put it together and compete in these weak-field events Dude was 90-1 at this event last year and finished T18. At 300-1, he must be bet (Risking 0.2 units to win 60 and 0-2 units to finish Top-7 at 28-1 to win 5.6 units).

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Total units wagered = 0.6 We will update after this event.



Our Pick

PGA Wagers (Risking 0.6 units - To Win: 0.00)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days120.00-1.41
Season to Date320.00-0.31