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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago -4½ vs. Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. If you looked only at Minnesota's 39 points last week, you'd think the Vikings put on an offensive clinic. They didn't. Minnesota was outgained 419-239, was trailing 22-10 late in the third quarter and received five first downs via Green Bay penalties. Turnovers, penalties and some favorable calls completely changed the complexion of the game and helped turn what looked like a dead Vikings team into one that suddenly appears dangerous on paper.

We're not taking anything away from Minnesota's defense, which played well, but offensively the final score was considerably prettier than the actual performance. We're not interested in paying for 39 points that were largely created by circumstances Minnesota can't count on repeating. There is also uncertainty at quarterback, with Kyler Murray questionable after leaving last week's game with a concussion and Carson Wentz replacing him. We generally don't build wagers around injury reports because we're not doctors and don't have information the market doesn't already possess, but quarterback is obviously an exception when the starter's status is uncertain. Wentz helped ignite last week's comeback, but we're also talking about Carson Wentz, a veteran backup who entered the game after Minnesota had done very little offensively. Whether it's Murray or Wentz, Chicago gets a much different challenge than the 39-point headline suggests, and we're comfortable laying the points with the Bears against either one

Meanwhile, Chicago gave us something much more sustainable in its opener. The Bears established the aggressive offensive identity they spent the offseason building, and now they get to bring that approach home against a division opponent whose Week 1 result is begging to be overvalued. Chicago has enough speed and weaponry to stretch Minnesota horizontally and vertically, and if the Bears can play from in front, the Vikings aren't likely to receive another parade of turnovers, penalties and short fields to rescue them. This is where the difference between results and performance matters. Minnesota scored 39 and won; Chicago's underlying performance was more convincing. We'll side with the team whose success appears more repeatable.

You'll also hear plenty about Minnesota's recent success in Chicago and Kevin O'Connell's record there. The market loves those little nuggets because they make for convenient narratives, but a Vikings victory at Soldier Field two or three years ago has absolutely nothing to do with what happens Sunday. Different players, different circumstances and, in Chicago's case, a different coaching staff make those results meaningless to this handicap. We're laying 5½ because we believe Minnesota's Week 1 explosion was largely fool's gold and Chicago is positioned to expose it. If the Vikings need another collection of turnovers, penalties and gifts to manufacture offense, they're going to have a difficult time staying inside this number.

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