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Colorado +206 over St. Louis
1:15 PM EST. How the f**k is Colorado going to pull this one out? Almost impossible, right? Adam Wainwright (RHP - St. L) wins games while...
Oakland +168 over Texas
2:05 PM EST. Right back on the Aís here after they belted out nine hits and scored seven runs as a significant underdog yesterday. While...
Toronto +131 over N.Y. Yankees
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays head to New York after a big win last night over Baltimore to salvage a game in the three-game series. We...

       

 

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Aug 17, 2022 13:16:37
Hi Sherwood, thanks as always for the work involved in your write ups. I have a questions regarding MLB and your lean to pitchers high xERA such as Cal Quantrill. I have to admit I need to do more research into this stat but does xERA take into account a teamís defensive ratings? I understand BABIP and less swing and miss rate can result in more danger chances/ balls in play. I also believe Cleveland has one of the better defensive groups which may impact the amount of balls in play? Stephen Kwan leads all left fielders this year in total fielding runs saved and has become the frontrunner for his first Gold Glove award. Is this because he is fielding behind pitchers like Quantrill or an above average defensive left fielder. In addition, Cleveland let go of Franmil Reyes to allow for more defensive outfielders. Would Detroit have a better chance if Cal Quantrill played for another team with a weaker defensive outfield rating? Again I donít know if all this matters, just adding my thoughts to always help improve strategy. Appreciate the dedication you spend on your craft and I enjoy reading all of your write ups.
Scott
Hi Scott. Thanks for taking the time to send a positive message. Your question is a good one. xERA is not flawless. It does not take into account defensive ratings, nor does it take into account park factors. For instance, if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, xERA would not recognize it. There are hitters parks and pitcher parks so one has to incorporate that into their research. Baseball has a plethora of possible variances. Analytics helps break it down better but it doesn't account for everything. A base hit for example in the 8th inning with your team down 8-1 means nothing compared to a base-hit with the score tied 2-2 and a man on second in the eighth innings. Your point is 100% valid but it would not deter me from attacking a pitcher that is favored like Quantrill was last night. Keep grinding my friend.
Aug 13, 2022 05:43:28
Hey, curious about your thoughts on Fernando Tatis Jr. suspension and san diegos odds to win it all. Let me preface this by saying before the trade deadline, they were roughly +1600-1800 ( I think?) to win the world series. I picked them up after the soto trade +1100 (late, but I still liked the value and it was an extremely small wager.) They're back up to +1800. About Tatis - guys of this value in any pro sport are routinely rushed back into service by Dr.s on the payroll of the team. Not to mention he's taking a banned substance that's extremely well known. Really makes you wonder if Tatis disagreed with docs and guys at the top that he was ready to go and this was his way of saying, "I'm not ready. Disagree? Fuck you - I got my contract - see ya in 10 months!" Curious if you'd still make that futures bet - and if you think my thoughts of Tatis' treatment have any truth? And can we get anything on mlb futures late season? Or do you just not see as much value in that? Thanks as usual. Miss the live betting segments. Do a fuckin podcast about mlb or football. nba. idc. something every month. Come on now. Ask Matt to set you up.
bjfan101/@cottonblond
There certainly could be some truth to Tatis' situation. He had to of known he was taking a big risk but like you say, he may have wanted a long break. I would still make that bet. The Dodgers almost look inpossible to beat but in a 7-game series, anything is possible. Padres are still loaded. BJ, we are 100% getting back to live betting, as soon as the summer is over at least once a week. Looking forward to seeing you!
Aug 10, 2022 21:00:44
Long time listener, not first time caller. MLB betting is so much harder then in the old days. Back in the day, starters would go go 7to 8 innings, mangers played the odds, not computer front office print outs. Personally, I only bet the AL EAST and only games live, because following all teams, too much. I read this site daily and take note if AL EAST teams are written up. Thanks Sherwood
TOM