Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -4½ -111 BET365 -4½ -115 Sportsinteraction -3½ -115 888Sport -4½ -110

Philadelphia 1H -4½ over New York

Best Odds: -110 at 888Sport

7:40 PM EST. We're not big Kool-Aid drinkers here at SportsWagers but sometimes swallowing what the world wants you to doesn't always mean it's the wrong thing to do. Everyone and their brother knows that when a team is down 0-2 and back at home in a playoff series, that's a dangerous spot for their opponent. Many of the current series are facing that situation, and bettors will predictably march to the window and put down wagers on the 0-2 outfits, if nothing else because their motivation and "sense of desperation" are no-doubt at an all-time high. This psychology of these wagers not only makes sense, but in many cases it comes to fruition. In some cases, it doesn't. In today's game between the Knicks and 76ers, the home team isn't just desperate and motivated, they're pissed.

League officials admitted that they missed two foul-calls on Tyrese Maxey at the end of game two, gaffes that could've changed the fortune of the 76ers. Philly had a 101-96 lead with just 47 seconds left, a scenario which (obviously) typically favors the squad with the five-point lead. But New York found a way. Jalen Brunson nailed a three and then Josh Hart forced a steal and then another former Villanova star Donte DiVincenzo followed up with another three. One Maxey-missed shot later and that's all she wrote; in the blink of an eye the 76ers went down 0-2.

Joel Embiid was visibly upset in the locker room after the loss, understandably emotional and negative after what transpired. In his next interaction with the media, he showed his leadership and vowed the 76ers would still win the series; a bold statement from the reigning MVP, who missed over two months of action before the playoffs.

One proclamation from the big-man isn't enough to grind our gears, but there's plenty of evidence that Philly has been the better team anyway, despite losing two straight. For starters, they've shut down New York's best scorer, holding Jalen Brunson to just 16-55 (29%) and 46 total points in two contests. They've been doing that all season, too. In 6 games versus Philly, Brunson only averaged 22.5 ppg. Meanwhile, Tyrese Maxey has been unstoppable, scoring 68 points in two games, and at home he averages a higher per game point total with Joel Embiid in the lineup, a giant distraction for opposing defenses. We don't see Maxey slowing down tonight. The 76ers have also shot better than New York in both affairs so far, and it was only the Knicks' melee of three-pointers that enabled them to create margin in game one. We know the story of game two.

Even on the road in one of the most hostile arenas, the 76ers could easily be 2-0 in their series. Back at home, behind a crowd that should be as loud as we've heard all season, markets are expecting the Sixers to get off to a fast start. Although the full-game spread is -5, the home team is up to -4 or even -4½ at most books in the first half. Oddsmakers expect the Sixers to blitz the Knicks in front of their fans, as do we, and while the spread might seem inflated it also speaks to a very likely scenario that the visitors will find extremely difficult to prevent. If New York can survive and keep the game within a reasonable distance, they might have a shot to cover or even will the game, but there's only one way we can look in the first two quarters. 

Farley

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Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle O28½ -101 BET365 028½ -115 Sportsinteraction O28½ -110

L.A. Lakers 1Q TT over 28½ 

Best Odds: -101 at Pinnacle

10:10 PM EST. The Lakers would be 2-0 right now if the first two games of their series against the Nuggets ended after two quarters, but that's not how this basketball thing works. We could say it was the elevation in Denver or the lack of youth on LAL's roster, but they fade away and have been outright dominated in the second half of their first two matchups. Anthony Davis was visibly lethargic at the end of game two after an exceptional first three quarters, entering the final period with 32 points and 10 rebounds. He finished with 32 points and 11 rebounds. LeBron James, despite being the oldest current player in the NBA, looked like he had more energy than anyone at the end of their last affair, but it wasn't enough. On top of that, Taurean Prince is the only Lakers' bench player to score a single point so far through two games. Coach Darvin Ham knows something must change.

But in the first two quarters, nothing really has to change. The Lakers have been very proficient in the first half, scoring 60 in the first game and 59 in the second, winning in both occasions. Now down 0-2 and worried that Denver could sweep them 4-0 for the second season in a row, this is the ultimate motivational spot for the home team, an angle that every sports bettor in the world is looking at tonight. That's why we're avoiding it, at least full-game and in the first half. Oddsmakers know that bettors expect the Lakers to win early, thus the inflated lines on LeBron's squad in the first half (-2½ at most books) and first quarter (-1½ at most books). So, we'll go with a different angle instead.

The Lakers run at their fastest tempo (103.76), their offense is more efficient, and their true shooting percentages skyrocket in the first quarter at home. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have been slow starters, and they seem content to go at the pace and output of their opponent in the first 12 minutes. LAL has produced 62 points in the first two opening quarters so far, a mark they accomplished in hostile territory and over 6,000 feet above sea level. With a better game plan and one of the best players to ever compete in the NBA in a bad mood, what do you think will happen tonight?

We're willing to bet that they'll keep putting up plenty of points. The Denver Nuggets are the better team, we have little doubt about that, and we want nothing to do with any spreads in tonight's contest because of it. But the Lakers can score at will in front of their home fans, using their big bodied starters to barrel down the floor for easy buckets to take their enemy off their game. They've already done it exceptionally well on the road. Perhaps the only angle we can really trust on a team as volatile as the Lakers, we'll go with a productive first quarter above all other options.

Farley

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