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Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Oklahoma City -6 over Indiana

Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, IN

8:30 PM ET. Don’t buy the scoreline. Don’t buy the hype. And definitely don’t buy the idea that the Indiana Pacers are in control of this series. They aren’t — not by a long shot.

The Pacers are up 2-1, and you’d think they just wrapped up the Finals based on the postgame soundbites. But it took a near-flawless shooting night, a flu-ridden Myles Turner playing on fumes, and a collective sleepwalk from the best defense in the NBA for Indiana to scrape out a win. You want to bet on that happening again? Be our guest. We're not buying it.

Indiana shot 52% from the field in Game 3 — absurd efficiency against a Thunder team that held opponents to 44.7% during the regular season. Oklahoma City didn’t suddenly forget how to defend. What happened was a perfect storm: Indy hit tough shots, OKC lost focus on switches, and the officiating let the Pacers’ cutters carve the lane like a parade float. It’s not sustainable.

What’s getting lost here is just how rare a flat outing from the Thunder really is. This team lost back-to-back games twice all season. That’s not noise. That’s culture, coaching, and consistency. And now, with the backs pressed just enough against the wall, we expect a measured, focused, and violent response.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the MVP and heartbeat of this group, wasn’t bad in Game 3 — but he wasn’t himself either. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren were far too quiet. And don’t expect that to continue. The Thunder have repeatedly bounced back from adversity with overwhelming runs. They’re not about to let Indiana hang around much longer, especially not with the stakes climbing by the minute.

Indiana’s bench can’t keep masking the top-heavy imbalance. Haliburton has been excellent, but how much more can he physically give? Turner’s battling illness, and Pascal Siakam can’t be the only adult in the room when things tighten. Oklahoma City’s depth, their defensive ceiling, and their resilience are all pointing toward a recalibration. Swallow the points.

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