Pinnacle    +13.5 -110   BET365   +13.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  +13.5 -110 888port  +13.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City +13.5 over Denver

8:15 PM ET. This number is pure market emotion. Denver is being priced like a juggernaut with everything to play for, while Kansas City is being treated like a bye-week opponent simply showing up to fulfill a schedule obligation. That gap — nearly two touchdowns — has far less to do with on-field separation and far more to do with narrative. The Broncos are chasing the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs are “playing out the string,” and the market has taken that storyline and stretched it too far.

Yes, Kansas City is depleted. Patrick Mahomes is done, Gardner Minshew is done, and Chris Oladokun is making his first career start. That sounds terrifying — until you remember this is the NFL, divisional familiarity matters, and Denver already struggled to put distance between these teams when Mahomes was healthy. The first meeting was a 22-19 game decided on the final kick. Now we’re being asked to believe the same matchup suddenly warrants laying 13½ on the road, on a short week, after Denver just had an 11-game win streak snapped at home by Jacksonville. That’s a massive leap.

This also isn’t the spot for Denver to be stylish. Sean Payton has already said the quiet part out loud — “whatever it takes to win.” That usually means conservative, risk-averse football, not margin hunting. Meanwhile, Kansas City has nothing to lose, which is often when teams play loose, simplify the offense, and lean on pride. Add in the emotional layer of what could be Travis Kelce’s final home game, and you’ve got a Chiefs team that will be fully engaged even if the ceiling is limited. Oladokun doesn’t need to be good — he just needs to avoid disaster.

Denver can absolutely win this game. That’s not the question. The question is whether they can justify a number that implies a blowout against a divisional opponent that already proved capable of dragging them into the mud. With the Broncos’ motivation fully baked into the line and then some, the value lives with the ugly side. We’ll take the points and let the market’s overconfidence do the rest.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

Play:

Pinnacle    +7.5 -110   BET365   +7.5 -110  Sportsinteraction  +7.5 -110 888port  +7.5 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +7.5 over Detroit

4:30 PM ET. This number is built on urgency and optics — not on separation. Detroit is being priced like a team that has to win big because its playoff life depends on it, while Minnesota is being treated like a team that has already packed it in. That’s how you end up with more than a touchdown in a divisional matchup that already went down to the final possession once this season. The market is overvaluing desperation and undervaluing familiarity, which is a mistake we’re happy to exploit.

Yes, the Vikings are banged up and out of the playoff picture, and yes, Max Brosmer is making just his second start. That’s all baked into the number — and then some. What isn’t being priced properly is how narrow Detroit’s margin really is. The Lions are coming off a brutal home loss, are short on rest, and are dealing with their own injury concerns, including Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery. Jared Goff has had a strong season, but when these teams met in early November, Detroit still lost outright despite moving the ball, and Goff was sacked five times. Minnesota’s defensive structure clearly gave him problems, and that doesn’t just disappear because the calendar flipped to December.

This also isn’t a spot where Minnesota needs to do much offensively to stay inside the number. Justin Jefferson is chasing another 1,000-yard season, and divisional games at home have a way of staying ugly and compressed, especially on short weeks. Detroit needs style points; Minnesota just needs to hang around — and divisional dogs with nothing to lose tend to do exactly that. The Lions can win this game and still fail to cover, and that’s the most likely outcome. We’ll take the points and let the market’s overreaction do the rest.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

Play: