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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New England -5½ vs. Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. If you bet Pittsburgh last week and cashed your ticket, congratulations. Take the money, put it in your pocket, lower your head and don't make eye contact with anybody on the way out. You got away with one. The Steelers beat Atlanta 20-13, but Pittsburgh was god-awful offensively, was outgained, lost the time-of-possession battle and benefited from 96 yards of Atlanta penalties. The Steelers' biggest offensive weapon wasn't Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf or Jaylen Warren. It was a yellow flag. Rodgers threw for barely more than 200 yards despite dropping back more than 40 times, couldn't complete a single deep ball and spent the afternoon operating an offense with all the explosiveness of a shopping cart with one bad wheel. Then T.J. Watt returned a fumble for a touchdown and Pittsburgh somehow walked away looking like a competent football team. We've seen this movie before.

Now Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers are reunited, because apparently Pittsburgh's plan for the future was to recreate Green Bay circa 2014 without any of the 2014 parts. Rodgers is 42, McCarthy is 62, and somewhere Brett Favre is probably waiting for his phone to ring. Pittsburgh's defense remains legitimate and Watt can wreck a game by himself, but the offense produced just 264 yards against an Atlanta team playing its third-string quarterback. We're supposed to be impressed because the Steelers escaped with a seven-point victory? Pittsburgh has made an art form out of winning games it seemingly has no business winning. A tipped pass here, a fumble there, a defensive touchdown, a missed kick, somebody getting struck by lightning in the opposing huddle—they've been pulling rabbits out of their ass for years. Eventually you have to actually play well.

New England lost its opener 13-10 to Seattle, but we're much more interested in backing that loser than Pittsburgh's fortunate winner. The Patriots led 10-0 for a long stretch and were in position to win before turnovers, poor decisions by Drake Maye and a fourth-quarter collapse flipped the game. Those mistakes were costly, but they're also fixable. More importantly, New England played Wednesday night, which gives the Patriots 10 days to prepare for this matchup. That's a significant advantage for a coaching staff that now has a full game of Pittsburgh's new McCarthy offense on film. And what exactly requires 10 days to decipher? Rodgers throwing five-yard passes and hoping T.J. Watt scores? New England doesn't need to reinvent defensive football here. Protect the ball, make Pittsburgh's offense drive the field and force Rodgers to consistently beat you.

We're not buying Pittsburgh's 1-0 record and we're certainly not selling New England because it blew one football game. The Patriots' mistakes against Seattle turned a game they controlled into a loss, while Pittsburgh's opponent made enough mistakes to turn an unimpressive Steelers performance into a victory. That's precisely the type of Week 1 result that creates value in Week 2. Pittsburgh has the prettier record, New England has the extra preparation, and we're betting that what actually happened on the field matters more than the final scores. If the Steelers want to beat us, make Grandpa Aaron and Uncle Mike do it without a defensive touchdown, 96 penalty yards and a gift basket from the opposition. New England exposes these impostors big time.

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