Boston @ Atlanta
Atlanta +17½ +102 over Boston

Posted at 8:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +17½ +102 BET365 +17 -110 Sportsinteraction +17½ -115 888Sport +17½ -117

Atlanta +17½ over Boston

Best Odds: +102 at Pinnacle

7:40 PM EST. Only two games grace the NBA schedule tonight with the Sweet 16 and opening day of MLB on deck, and of course we're attracted to the ugliest affair of the two. We just can't help ourselves, apparently. In all seriousness, at this point in the season, with motivation fueling every team that has a chance at the postseason, should any program own a spread this commanding? Even if two teams showed polar opposite production all year, both rosters are composed of professionals who are at the pinnacle of their trade, each with their own individual reasons to perform at the highest level each night. We realize how shaky and volatile wagering on NBA players/teams can be at certain points in the schedule, but there's no denying the urgency of early Spring, just over two weeks away from the start of the play-in tournament. And after all, tonight's underdog has been very competitive against their elite opponent all season. 

Will the Hawks beat the Celtics again? Probably not, but the reality is Atlanta has played some of their best basketball in three games against Boston. Every game's been close, and if you look back at all three of their battles, 11/12 quarters are relatively small margins (some 10-11 point margins are in there but it's not like the whole quarter was disparate). Boston only blew out Atlanta in the first quarter of their last contest two days ago, and we all know how that story ended.

Either way, Boston is fully capable of shitting the bed again, especially on the road, especially with New Orleans on deck Saturday, and especially considering that they don't really need to win much of anything anymore. The Celtics already clinched the Eastern Conference as the #1 seed, so how much do they truly care about tonight's contest or any contest before the playoffs? The playoffs are where Boston has failed themselves the last few seasons, and we see no reason why they wouldn't want to start preserving their guys tonight. 

And it's not like Atlanta's a bad team in their current form. They rank top 6 offensively the last 2 weeks, Dejounte Murray is their workhorse leader who plays damn-near 40+ minutes a night and has been deadly in big games, and their depth is better than you think. They also have true size with guys like Clint Capela, Onyeka Okongwu (questionable tonight), and DeAndre Hunter, who can roam the paint and get as physical as any front court in the NBA. They still miss Jalen Johnson at the 4-spot (he should return soon), but the Hawks learned how to play much better defense since Trae Young left to have surgery on his finger. Even though lately they've let their offense do the winning, the current group has been tested enough to hang around in a game like this. Quin Snyder is also a pretty damn good coach, plenty better than Mazzulla from our vantage point, and he has his guys fighting very hard during this final stretch.

The Hawks have a "commanding" 5 game-lead on the 10th and final play-in spot, a pre-playoff tournament that will grant them a chance to win two straight contests and officially enter the postseason. So, on the one hand, we might assume they also don't need to win tonight either. But with only 10 games remaining, Atlanta has plenty of tough teams left on their schedule, including Milwaukee, Denver, Dallas, Miami, Minnesota, and Indiana. And of course they square off against the mighty Celtics tonight. They can't afford to simply lay down and lose in any contest. At home all week and after finding a way to scomeback from a 30-point deficit for a victory three nights ago against the very same team, we expect the Hawks to compete hard and show little intimidation in the fourth and final battle between these two outfits. Atlanta has covered in each of their last two games against Boston, and at this outrageous number, we're willing to risk some coin that it'll happen again.

Farley

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Our Pick

Atlanta +17½ +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days20130.00+12.82
Season to Date70610.00+17.34