Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +14 -110  BET365 +14 -110  Sportsinteraction +14 -110  888Sport +14 -110

Cincinnati +14 -110 over Oklahoma

Nippert Stadium – Cincinnati, OH

Streaming: FOX

12:00 PM EST. Oklahoma’s stock is high, as they have won and covered in their first three games this season. The Sooners beat Arkansas State 73-0 (-37), SMU 28-11 (as a 16½-point favorite), and 66-17 at Tulsa (28-point favorite). Oklahoma pulverized a bunch of nobodies of which Cincinnati is not. There is almost always a price to pay for scheduling games against weak competition and now, because of a bunch of skewed results and statistics, Oklahoma is spotting more points than they should be.

Cincinnati lost 31-24 at home last week to Miami Ohio in the Battle for the Victory Bell. The Bearcats were a 14-point favorite. It’s very likely that the Bearcats were looking ahead to this game, as a showdown with Oklahoma is like another trip to the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six Bowl even if it’s now a Big 12 Conference Game. By contrast, to Miami Ohio, beating Cincinnati was huge. The Redhawks had not defeated their arch rival in 18 years (16-game losing streak to Cinci). Essentially, Miami OH brought their A-game and Cincinnati brought their C-game. It happens but the Bearcats could still have won, but fell victim to red zone miscues in that upset loss. 

This week Cincinnati is a 14-point dog at the time of this writing, which is a 28-point swing/overreaction to last weeks’ debacle. This Cincinnati team is clearly capable of transitioning into Power 5 play as a new member of Big 12. They traveled to Pittsburgh (ACC) two weeks ago and won outright 27-21 as a 6½-point dog. The Bearcats also destroyed Eastern Kentucky (66-13) in their opener before beating Pitt. They are certainly more battle tested under new head coach Scott Satterfield, who returns six starters from a defense last year that was ranked 27th in **EPA in the nation. Satterfield comes to Cincinnati from Louisville, where he also took with him his defensive coordinator, Bryan Brown, whose Cardinals' unit finished 17th in EPA and ninth in EPA in defending the pass last season. That Bearcats defense is loaded with NFL-quality talent, and you will hear the names of Dontay "The Godfather" Corleone, Jowon Briggs, and Deshawn Pace called come April when the NFL Draft hits downtown Kansas City. The Bearcats still have a massively disruptive defensive front. 

It is worth noting that #16 Oklahoma opened as a 13½-point favorite on the road at unranked Cincinnati. When you play a ranked team v an unranked team, there is almost always a premium to pay. The Bearcats are a difficult out, they’re talented and they cannot be receiving this amount of points in their own barn against a team that hasn’t broken or sweat or that has even been remotely challenged. 

***Expected Points Added Definition (EPA)

The statistic is used to try and define how many points a player or play is worth to a team. Every play is considered with context in mind, meaning down distance and field position are used to evaluate the amount of EPA compared to the actual result of the play

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -21½ -104 BET365 -21 -110 Sportsinteraction -21 -110  888Sport -21 -105

Oregon -21 -110 over Colorado

Autzen Stadium – Eugene, OR

Streaming: ABC

3:30 PM EST. It seems like every week Colorado is in our crosshairs but we are certain that the chalk in this tilt is working with depleted points, although it may not appear that way. 

Betting with the heart is a known bankroll killer and that is what the market is doing this week, as it doubles down on Coach Prime and company. One can scour the internet and read all sorts of think-pieces about how the story of Coach Deion Sanders and Colorado is one that is unprecedented and one that is good for college football. The market simply cannot get enough of this stuff and making wagers based on sentimentality, and media influence and not reason. After all, how does the #18 team in country get three touchdowns from the #10 team in the country? To the naked eye, this makes Colorado look too easy and when we combine it with the emotional fuel that has been driving Prime-mania, this has all the makings of a sucker bet.

Last week, Colorado rallied from 11 points down in the fourth quarter to force overtime against arch-rival Colorado State: a team that was a 24-point underdog. Frankly, the Buffalos should have lost but a theatrical 98-yard drive by quarterback Shedeur Sanders followed by a series of Rams miscues allowed CU to escape with a 43-35 victory and once again there was bedlam in Boulder. 

Everybody wants a piece of this Colorado pie. We’re actually surprised that ABC didn’t move this game to 8:00 PM to further cash in on one of the biggest Cinderella stories to come out of college football in a very long time. ABC, ESPN, CBS, you name it and Colorado is the top story. America wants to see Colorado take down Oregon and add another chapter to the storied run of Coach Prime and now the betting market is willing to play into the house edge to do so. That’s not a place we want to be.

From a distance this perhaps looks like Week One all over again. After all, while Colorado was unranked then, they were priced in a similar range against a then-ranked TCU team that was a national finalist in the 2022-23 season. The betting masses created a huge liability for bookmakers; said losses were amplified in their follow up against Nebraska when Colorado obliterated the number. Though the Buffs failed to produce a cashed ticket last week, they are without question still being played, as their market credibility remains elevated. Make no mistake this is by far the best team that Colorado has faced so far this season and they also have to do so in the most hostile environment that they will venture into, season-to-date. We promise you that last week’s win over Colorado State has emotionally charged and took at least a bit of a toll. Do you really think the oddsmakers were asleep at the wheel when they made Oregon a near three TD favorite? They also have all the data that shows that Colorado took a massive amount of wagers the first three weeks and it’s not about to stop now. This has all the makings of a blowout written all over it and a pivot that will bring the Buff-a-maniacs back to earth. America loves a hero and the media is trying to make Prime and the Buffs exactly that while we’ll be the dude sitting very quietly with his head down at the end of the craps table playing the “don’t” and cashing in.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -3 -112 BET365 -3-110 Sportsinteraction -3-110 888Sport -3-110

Ohio State -3 -110 over Notre Dame

Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, IN

Streaming: NBC

7:30 PM EST. Spotting points on the road is not typically in our wheelhouse, but there is an occasion to do so and this is one of those moments.

Notre Dame has been making a name for itself since Week 0. The Irish ventured off to Ireland and steamrolled Navy 42-3. The Irish would then follow that up with a 56-3 drubbing of FCS Tennessee State, a 45-25 beatdown of N.C. State in Raleigh, and a most recent 41-17 dismantling of Central Michigan in South Bend last Saturday. Over that span, the Irish rose up the rankings from #13 to #9 and they have been cashing tickets at a clip while doing so, going 3-1 against the number in those four games. Additionally, the Irish look like a bona-fide College Football Playoff contender. The Irish are getting it done on both sides of the ball, led by a transfer quarterback in Sam Hartman that looks like a Heisman hopeful. Hartman has lived up to the acclaim and then some, while Notre Dame’s defense has played physical and stout complimentary football that have left the talking heads revelling. 

By contrast, there have been many adjectives that have been tossed around to describe the Buckeyes in the early going this season from a variety of media sources, they include: sluggish, lackluster, uninspiring, and not Ohio State-like. The Buckeyes, though ranked as high as #3 in the preseason AP poll, have slid down to #6 after putting together a portfolio of results that brought the Buckeyes under a lot of scrutiny, which include a 23-3 victory at Indiana where OSU was nowhere near close to covering as a 30-point favorite, a 35-7 win against FCS Youngstown State as a 44.5-point choice, and a 63-10 win over Western Kentucky as a 30-point choice, which the market has placed no clout in because of the results that precede them. 

To put in another light, Ohio State is one of few programs in America that always has immense expectations placed upon its shoulders. If the Buckeyes don’t demolish teams that they are supposed to put up a boatload of style points on, the prophets of doom hold council in Columbus. Given the fact that Ohio State struggled early against Indiana and Youngstown State, the Buckeyes were characterized as taking a step back though they actually won by considerable margins. This speaks into the lofty expectations and superfluous standards that this program is held to. To reframe this in another way: Ohio State is trending down while Notre Dame’s trajectory is trending upward. We now get to take advantage.

Sam Hartman has 49 career starts combined between his time at Wake Forest and Notre Dame. However, despite Hartman’s litany of experience and the Sea of Gold behind him, the Buckeyes once again opened at a “favorite” number against OSU and quarterback Kyle McCord who is still green behind the ears after making his first official start against Western Kentucky last Saturday. Makes you wonder why, no? Despite all that we have mentioned, oddsmakers still installed Ohio State as high as a 3½-point choice. This resonates with us as the figure is a “favorite” number. The number posted is designed to attract action on the underdog under the guise of a win should the Irish lose by a field goal. Seldom is the margin ever close to the actual number, as anecdotally, the favorite often covers by a much larger margin in this range. Nevertheless, the market has responded overwhelmingly. This is not a bargain giveaway on the Irish; it is a show of respect that the bookmakers have for Ohio State. We're paying attention.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +17 -103  BET365 +17 -110  Sportsinteraction +17 -110  888Sport +17 -110

Nevada +17 over Texas State

Bobcat Stadium (TX), San Marcos, TX

Streaming: ESPN+

7:00 EST. The Wolfpack are getting extremely undervalued in this spot and it's due to an overcorrection in the market. Texas State has become an Against the Spread (ATS) darling, covering all three of their contests by a national best 23 points per game. That's right - they've averaged 23 points of line disparity in each of their three games. No doubt that's pretty incredible, but here's the clincher - they haven't faced a team in a Power-5 conference yet, and that popular ATS mark is a bit overstated.

Nevada is far from the Pac-12's best but last week they proved they could be formidable in a good spot. The Wolfpack gave Kansas all they could handle, including 145 yards on the ground and a clean all-around game following two very sloppy performances to start the season (4 turnovers and 99 points allowed in Weeks 1 and 2). They lost versus Kansas, but they probably gained confidence by simply hanging around as a big underdog against an SEC squad.

Texas State has looked legit on offense, averaging 455 yards per game in a well-balanced attack, but most of that aforementioned ATS margin came last week in a 77-34 romp of Jackson State, a team crumbling without Coach Prime. In the other two contests, Texas State lost straight up to UTSA, an AAC bottom-feeder who hasn't won since, and they opened the season shocking Baylor by an 11-point margin. The latter was an impressive victory, but Baylor doesn't exactly look like a world-beater this season. Two late turnovers stunted Baylor's chances of beating the Bobcats in their opener, and so far the Bears’ only win of the season came against Long Island (yawn). We can’t take too much from Texas State based on just one upset, nor can we find assurance in a beatdown of Deion Sanders’ ex-program that lost a ton of talent.

Nevada has a decent rushing attack and they lean on it, averaging 37.5 rushes per game. While the underdog only averages 2.9 yards per rush, the Bobcats permit 133 yards per game. Against their best opponent this season, UTSA controlled the clock (37:23 to 22:37 in time of possession) with their run-game, accruing 158 yards on the ground. Nevada's front isn't comparable to CFB elites but they're absolutely comparable to the defensive front of Texas State. Nevada also has more desperation heading into this battle since they have yet to win a game this season. 

For Texas State to cover this inflated price, it would take a near-perfect performance from a team that's probably thinking a little too highly of themselves right now. Sports media and bettors are trashing Nevada, while Texas State is getting a ton of love by high-profile handicappers like Brad Powers, who released their ATS performance in a tweet on September 18th. We'll sell very high on the Bobcats and buy low on a valuable pooch getting a ton of points. 

Farley

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +106  BET365 +110  Sportsinteraction +110  888Sport +110

Clemson +110 over Florida St

Clemson Memorial Stadium – Clemson, SC

Streaming: ABC

12:00 PM EST. This business is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of enterprise. Once upon a time, Clemson was characterized as the gold standard of the ACC and the team to beat. However, this past Labor Day weekend changed all of that. We’ll dive deeper.

Heading into the 2023 season, Clemson was widely-regarded as a heavy favorite to win the Atlantic Coast Conference and named by many analysts to return to the College Football Playoff after going missing for a couple of years. However, the Tigers would take to the road on Labor Day night against Duke as a double-digit point favorite and the unranked Blue Devils would go on to make a spectacle of the Tigers in a 28-7 victory. Though this result was in Week One it could easily be inferred as one of the biggest surprises so far this year and the market has reacted accordingly. Since then, Clemson has fallen from elite status, a team that is no longer a national power, and an outfit whose dynastic run within the conference is now at an end. All eyes have now turned to the Seminoles who have essentially become the new sheriff in town.

By contrast, Florida State has one of the most impressive victories season-to-date and it occurred within 24 hours of the Tigers’ demise. Florida State rolled a then #5 LSU 45-24 in the Camping World Classic and such an outcome sent shockwaves across the college football landscape. LSU was named by some analysts to go undefeated and perhaps win the SEC, but it was FSU who literally stole the show. Moreover, a victory of this magnitude is one that is not exhibited all too often. You see, LSU gave up more points than any other team ranked in the AP Top Five in a season opener in poll history. As a result, Florida State was catapulted to as high as #3 in the polls after achieving such a distinction. In the buildup to this contest, the market is reacting to these two results even though each side has played two more games of football since then. 

Against Duke, Clemson beat themselves. The Tigers’ committed three special team blunders which included two/tipped blocked field goals and a missed attempt inside the 20. Clemson also committed three turnovers, two of which occurred inside Duke’s 10-yard line. The amount of points left on the table were copious and yet Duke did not pull away until the fourth quarter. In a nutshell every in-game variance that could go against Clemson did and everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Had it not, we may very well be talking about Clemson sitting inside the Top-10. Nevertheless, since Labor Day the Tigers have looked more like themselves and obliterated opponents (albeit cupcakes) 112-31 in their last two wins but the market is fixated on one result.

Indeed, FSU has one of the most impressive wins of the season so far and they followed it up with a 66-13 dismantling of Southern Miss in Week Two, covering as a 31-point choice with ease. However, last week, Florida State was lucky to get out of Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts with a win as the ‘Noles escaped an upset-minded Boston College a 31-29 thriller. FSU came into the game as a 27½-point favorite and led by as much as 21 before the Eagles would soar back into the contest. In-game variances perhaps prevented BC from completing an upset, as the Eagles missed a PAT and committed a program record 18 penalties which cost the Eagles 132 yards in total. One of these fouls allowed Florida State to get the first down it needed to run out the clock and escape with the win. Had Boston College played a clean game, perhaps the conversation surrounding this contest would be far different. After all, Boston College generated more total offense than Florida State did (457 total yards by BC to 350 yards of offense by FSU) and could have potentially won the game. Had the Eagles done so, FSU’s ranking may be lower than Clemson’s. Now, we get to take advantage.

Clemson will be insulted by the fact that they are an underdog in Death Valley. After all, it is not a thing that happens frequently; this is the third time in the last decade that Clemson is priced as a home pup at Memorial Stadium. When we combine this narrative with the aforementioned hot takes on this program over the last few weeks, the Tigers will have many emotional intangibles and motivation to come out swinging. Florida State has also lost the last seven against the Tigers and that once again gives Clemson an emotional edge, as well. FSU is heading into uncharted waters while Clemson will have confidence. When you factor this in with over 90,000 steamed up Tigers’ fans getting in FSU’s face, there are so many things that go wrong for the Seminoles here with all the ingredients considered. Clemson outright it is.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +123  BET365 +125  Sportsinteraction +125  888Sport +125

Appalachian State +125 over Wyoming

Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium – Laramie, WY

Streaming: CBS Sports Network (CBSSN)

7:00 PM EST. This business is one of impressions and our task is to determine when these impressions are influencing market perception. This contest serves as a prime case study.

Wyoming and App State both step into this game at 2-1 both straight up and against the number. However, Wyoming’s body of work season-to-date has generated a lot of buzz. Wyoming kicked off the season in Laramie as a 13½-point underdog and not only covered against Texas Tech, but won outright 35-33 in overtime. Given the hype that surrounded Texas Tech in the preseason, the market faded Wyoming vehemently on that fateful eve. In a quintessential “sandwich game” hosting FCS Portland State in Week Two, the market zig-zagged back on the Cowboys as a 28-point choice. There were two factors driving this scenario. First, the aforementioned upset staged by the Cowboys and secondly the fact Portland State gave up 81 points to Oregon the week before which made targeting the Vikings an easy choice. However, Wyoming would only win by a score of 31-17 and Portland State would actually compile more first downs than the Cowboys (20-19) and nearly match them in total yardage (371-344). That result diminished Wyoming’s stock but it would quickly be forgotten when Wyoming would venture off to Austin and face off with the Texas Longhorns who were coming in off the heels of their signature upset win in Tuscaloosa against Alabama the week prior. 

Texas/Wyoming would be deadlocked at 10 in the fourth quarter before Texas would pull away in a 31-10 win. The Cowboys controlled the ball for 17 more minutes compared to Texas and they were never in danger of not covering as a 30½-point pup. The media has been quick to highlight the fight that the Cowboys brought to the Longhorns and now the market is reacting to this narrative.

Sure, Wyoming has looked good against Big 12 opponents thus far but one could easily infer that the Cowboys took advantage of the Red Raiders and Longhorns playing down to their level of opposition. Texas was guilty of such offenses against Rice earlier this season while the Red Raiders led by 17 after the first quarter against Wyoming before they started thinking about Oregon in Lubbock prematurely and allowed the Cowboys back into the game. 

Appalachian State is no stranger to playing the role of the upset-artist nor are they timid of anyone that they face. This is a program that has cultivated a legacy in upsetting the blue bloods and giving their Power Five brethren a scare; you can ask North Carolina about that one. Now, the Mountaineers come into this contest just where they want to be: off the radar and overlooked. Should Wyoming take its eye off the ball here and play down to App State’s level like they did Portland State, this could be a long afternoon for the ‘Boys. The line would suggest such an event may happen and presents a perfect opportunity to sell high on Wyoming.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +169  BET365 +170  Sportsinteraction +166  888Sport +170

Utah St +170 over James Madison

Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium – Logan, UT

8:00 PM EST. “Sticking with it” is a philosophy we endorse and this game is a prime example of that. We backed Utah State last week against Air Force as a 9½-point pup and knew we had a dead ticket after Utah State was down 22-0 after one quarter. That awful start and result makes it harder to come back on USU this week but not for us. 

Utah State’s loss to Air Force in a game they also trailed 39-7 at one point was a Friday night nationally-televised game that left an impression with the market. Air Force made Utah State look like a high school football team. Anyone that faded Utah State likely can’t wait to fade them again.

Meanwhile, James Madison is 3-0 on the year with a win over an ACC school on the road (Virginia) and at defending Sun Belt Champion Troy. Two noteworthy wins compared to Utah State’s only win which came against FCS Idaho State.

When comparing JMU’s résumé to Air Force’s résumé, JMU’s is more impressive and Utah State’s stock is lower now than it was a week ago. The Aggies left a seriously negative lasting impression last week. 

Incidentally, Utah State made a change at quarterback in freshman McCae Hillstead and he was responsible for helping generate all 21 points against the Falcons. He will be under center here and the Aggie faithful will be doing a “white-out”.

If each team brings its best, it would be hard to lay points in this matchup of two squads that are not that far apart. We’re not convinced for a second that JMU has more talent than the Aggies. If we dig a little deeper, though, James Madison not only has to travel 2000 miles to Utah, but they have to make sure they don't overlook this opponent after last week’s massive game and next week’s massive showdown against South Alabama. This is also JMU’s third straight road game. JMU is now asked to play the role of a significant road favorite after being a 2½-point underdog at Troy and squeaking out a hard-fought 16-14 win. An upset here is highly probable, which is precisely the way we’re going to play it.

Sherwood

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