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Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Michigan -10 over Northwestern (This is a neutral site game)

Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

12:00 PM ET. Michigan’s résumé on paper reads like it would command respect: 7–2 overall, slotted inside the CFP Top 20, and armed with a roster loaded with blue-chip talent. Yet the Wolverines enter this week at just 3–6 ATS — a record that’s turned bettors cold and left the market unwilling to give them a full vote of confidence here in a spot against an archetypal pesky underdog in a neutral site spectacle like Wrigley Field.

That hesitation is driven largely by Northwestern, who has spent most of this season punching above its perceived weight class. The Wildcats have lost two straight, but the broader body of work is hard to dismiss. They stole wins from Penn State and UCLA, dragged Oregon into deep water, and went toe-to-toe with Nebraska in Lincoln. They have played with grit and structure, and that kind of profile tends to earn public affection — especially when catching points like this one.

Michigan, on the other hand, hasn’t provided much in the way of style points. They grazed by Purdue (a 2-8 team) most recently and when challenged by elite competition, they were handled by both USC and Oklahoma. Put all that together, and it’s easy to understand why bettors are reluctant to lay a sizable number with the Wolverines here. They don’t win pretty and it appears they are being asked to here. But this is exactly where the market gives us an opening.

What remains is a discounted tag on the superior team — one with more talent, more depth, and a significantly higher ceiling. Michigan’s offensive line should control the trenches, their defense can suffocate Northwestern’s limited attack, and when the Wolverines have been forced to raise their level, they’ve shown they still can. Underlay.

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