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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Massachusetts +10 over AKRON InfoCision Stadium – Akron, OH

7:00 PM ET. Are the Zips a team that should be laying this kind of tag to anyone — including UMass? Akron has been priced in this range once already this season, but that was against FCS Duquesne, and yes, the Zips rolled 51-7. But that came against one of the weakest FCS programs out there. Are the Minutemen that bad? No — even if they haven't won a game yet.

There’s context. Akron shocked Buffalo two weeks ago, winning outright on the road as a 10-point underdog. That result created an overreaction. We are now seeing a 20-point swing in perception on a team that, we remind everyone, failed to score a touchdown for 120 straight minutes to start the season against Wyoming and Nebraska.

Akron has two FBS wins this year —but they were catching significant points in both contests. This is a different assignment entirely. The same program many circled as the worst team in FBS back in August is now being asked to lay double digits? If there's ever been a picture in the dictionary next to false favorite, this is it. So we’ll politely decline.

The Minutemen are not pretty, we get it. This is a plug-your-nose special in every sense of the term, but the value is present nonetheless. This is also exactly the type of setup our philosophy embraces: fade the team whose stock has inflated overnight on the back end of a zig-zag. The time to back Akron was at Buffalo as a +10 pup. If you're arriving now, you're a week too late.

UMass may very well steal this outright — we would not be shocked in the slightest — but the points provide more than enough cushion. Akron laying lumber is not a role we trust them in, and this is likely the last stop before reality returns. Take the Minutemen and let the chips fall where they may.

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