Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +15 -109 BET365 +15 -110 Sportsinteraction +15 -110 88Sport +15 -110

Oklahoma State +15 over Texas

Big 12 Conference Championship

AT&T Stadium – Arlington, TX

Streaming: ABC

12:00 PM EST. As the talking heads hypothesize and forecast potential College Football Playoff (CFP) scenarios, few if any teams have been talked about more than Texas. That’s because the Longhorns find themselves in a very unique position: they own one of, if not the best win this season but may not qualify for the CFP. In early September the ‘Horns ventured out to Tuscaloosa, Alabama and handed the Crimson Tide a double-digit loss, which has to be classed as a benchmark victory. Since then, Texas has all but one game against arch-rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry but the Longhorns were seconds away from a winning that one too. Should Texas win the Big 12 and finish 12-1, the prevailing question is whether or not the Longhorns will be “boxed out” of the College Football Playoff despite such an illustrious résumé? That type of rhetoric and language sets the stage for said team to suffer a scare or even get tripped up, therefore, this is not good a place to be spotting this type of wood.

Oklahoma State very quietly has had one of its most remarkable campaigns under Mike Gundy, as the turnaround has been transformative. The Cowboys looked dead in the water when they were getting roasted in Stillwater by the visiting South Alabama Jaguars in a 33-7 trampling. That result did not age well either, as South Alabama barely qualified for a bowl game by going 6-6 on the year in the Sun Belt Conference. However, the Pokes would not give up on their season but instead ran through a plethora of ranked Big 12 opponents and dispatched them all. The list includes: Kansas State (now ranked in the Top 25), Kansas (ranked 23 at the time of game), and Oklahoma who was ranked in the top-10 when Bedlam was played.

Since starting the season 2-2, the Cowboys have gone 7-1 but their still not getting the respect they deserve because said loss was so hideous. The 45-3 trampling at the hands of a 5-5 UCF in the week after an emotional win against Oklahoma also lowers their market credibility. Most recently, Oklahoma State had to survive double overtime to get past a BYU team who will not be going bowling in 2023. By contrast, Texas comes into this game on the heels of a 57-7 blowout win against Texas Tech. When we factor recency bias, brand prestige (Texas being College Football Royalty), and some of the thought material surrounding the Longhorns lofty possibilities, the curb appeal of Texas is extraordinary and also renders one to buy high on the Longhorns.

Oklahoma State opened at +13½ but the inefficient market very quickly jumped all over the Longhorns and drove the figure to what you see here. A bet on the Longhorns now is not only buying high but also playing them at a bad number, none of which are “rolling with the best of it”. We also have to wonder how the Cowboys feel about being a 15-point underdog. It’s highly insulting and massively motivating and we can almost promise you that a big piece of bristol board will be hanging in the locker room with the number 15 on it. Adding in inflated points on top of everything else makes Okie State an underdog that ticks all the boxes.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -2½ -108 BET365 -2½ -110 Sportsinteraction -2½ -110 88Sport -2½ -110

Boise State -2½ over UNLV

Mountain West Conference Championship

Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV

Streaming: FOX

3:00 PM EST. Spotting a tag on the road is not usually in our wheelhouse, but nothing is in stone when it comes to sports betting and this is one of those occasions where we’ll make an exception.

Last week, we targeted UNLV, as their stock was through the ceiling after going 10-1 against the spread (ATS) on the year. San Jose State went onto defeat the Rebels 37-31 in The Desert as a 2½-point underdog but we’re confident that despite UNLV’s loss last week, their stock remains elevated.

Recency bias truly influences market perception. In the not too long and distant past, the name Boise State would be one that would send shivers down the spine of any Group of Five outfit and the Broncos were an institution that regularly garnered massive public appeal. Though an atypical iteration of themselves in 2023, the Broncos are historically esteemed as one of the blue bloods of mid-major football. However, teams with Alabama, Ohio State, and Notre Dame-esque pedigrees can also bode value in certain instances just like any other squad. This appears to be the case, as Boise State’s 7-5 mark is quite deceptive but far more qualitative than UNLV’s 9-3 record.

Last week, we suggested things would come full circle for UNLV who enjoyed one of the easiest schedules in the country, as its Strength of Schedule ranked 120th according to Power Rankings Guru Strength of Schedule Index. Meanwhile, San Jose State endured a gauntlet in out-of-conference play and the proof was in the pudding, as those difficult contests paid dividends for the Spartans who finished their season 7-5 at UNLV’s expense, rattling off six straight wins despite starting off 1-5.

Similarly, Boise State has lost four of their five defeats by a touchdown or less against the following (at UCF, at Fresno State, at Memphis, and at Colorado State); two of those games were decided by Boise State losing via a Hail Mary by Colorado State and a walk-off field goal at UCF. Boise State could easily have the same record as UNLV here had they not lost on the literal last play of the game. Boise State also elected to schedule games versus now #3 Washington in Seattle to kick off their season, UCF in Orlando (A Power Five school who wrecked Oklahoma State in Orlando), North Dakota (A decent FCS school), and Group of Five power Memphis in Music City who are 9-3 and also tough to beat at home. Despite that, the Washington game was the only contest Boise State was not competitive in.

There is a confluence of factors here as to why Boise State is getting so much respect by oddsmakers, which supersedes UNLV’s heightened market presence, they include a stronger out of conference schedule and how competitive the Broncos were against said opposition.

Despite sitting at 4-5 at one point this season Boise State steamrolled its way into this championship game by rattling off three wins to get here. UNLV, meanwhile, has feasted on celery sticks and now the empty calories are catching up to them. The Broncos are a bargain here and we’re on it.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -7½ +104 BET365 -7 -110 Sportsinteraction -7 -110 88Sport -7 -110

Toledo -7½ over Miami Ohio

Mid-American Conference Championship

Ford Field – Detroit, MI

Streaming: ESPN

12:00 PM EST. As a 2½-point choice, Toledo won by 4 in the regular season meeting at Miami Ohio and now they’re spotting five points more. The oddsmakers also hung a hook (half point) on a key number like 7 and that, too, raises some red flags in terms of getting behind the underdog. To make Miami even more appealing, it went 9-3 against the spread this season, including outright upset wins over Ohio as a 7½-point underdog (same price as this one) and Cincinnati as a 14-point underdog. Meanwhile, Toledo went just 6-6 against the spread this year. There are just so many appetizing nuggets in Miami’s favor that the market is going to eat up if they haven’t already and we’re strongly suggesting that all of it is nothing more than bullshit fodder. Toledo is a vastly superior team than the Bobcats and oddsmakers know it. Since that head-to-head matchup between these two on Oct 21st in a game that Toledo led 21-3 at the half, both teams are undefeated but one is legit and one is not.

You see, the RedHawks have been involved in some shaky performances with new QB Aveon Smith at the helm. Miami beat Akron 19-0, but the Zips got deep into Miami territory four times in that game and somehow didn't score a single point. Miami beat Buffalo 23-10, but the Bulls fumbled on the goal line in the second half on a game-changing play. Miami was out-gained by 149 yards in last week's win over Ball State.

Oddsmakers are counting on the Rockets’ high-powered offense (they boast multiple valuable assets) to eventually wear out a Bobcats’ defense that figures to be on the field far too often in this game for far too long. Miami’s offense is painful to watch and if you bet the Bobcats here, you’re very likely going to be sorry you did.

Sherwood

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +183 BET365 +180 Sportsinteraction +180 888Sport +180

Appalachian State +183 over Troy

Sun Belt Conference Championship

Veterans Memorial Stadium – Troy, AL

3:30 PM EST. There are a couple different intangibles in play here and we’ll dive right into it. First, there is “brand recognition”. Troy State has very quietly emerged as the “It Girl” of the Sun Belt Conference as they step into this tilt as the reigning and defending conference champions who once again put together an impressive 10-win season. Their two losses? At Kansas State (who was ranked #15 at the time of play and defending Big 12 Champion) and James Madison University who had a storied run into the Top 25 and got to 10-0 before Appalachian State would upend the Dukes incredible run.

Though 8-4 on the year, the Mountaineers did something no one else could do, which was end JMU’s undefeated season in overtime and in doing so capsized the bigger narrative behind the Dukes’ story: The NCAA’s archaic and inflexible directives that, due to JMU being in a second year of transition, could not participate in a bowl game or conference championship. This story took center-stage when App State visited Harrisonburg two weeks ago and handed James Madison it’s first loss with much of the nation watching with College Gameday in attendance. Had App State not upset the apple cart, James Madison would have been successful in running the table, as one play in overtime served as the separation factor. Had the Dukes done the unthinkable, they may have forced the NCAA’s hand in the appeal process with respect to the rigidity of the transition period. With James Madison losing, it was far easier for the NCAA to stick to its guns with the transition period provision and by virtue of everything in play, Appalachian State got the invitation to square off with Troy instead. When we couple that with the revenge angle in play from Appalachian State defeating Troy by way of a Hail Mary last year in Boone, the Mountaineers are a fade target by virtue of market disdain and betting malpractices, which is the wrong side to be on.

Market perception is that Appalachian State doesn’t deserve to be here. However, the Mountaineers will be coming to Troy with a chip on their shoulder because of the storylines surrounding their participation in this venue. The pricing in this game would suggest that they are by no means a placeholder. In what is a 50/50 proposition, the 5 points offer some very decent value but we’re going for the kill and taking dog to win outright.

Sherwood

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