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Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

GEORGIA STATE +7½  over Marshall

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

2:00 PM ET.  There are several moving parts that make this matchup far more intriguing than it appears on the surface. Let’s begin with Georgia State, a team sitting at 1–8 both straight up and against the spread. By default, most bettors will look to fade the Panthers immediately. They have not shown consistency, they have not shown reliability, and naturally, teams with records like this tend to take back inflated numbers because the market has no interest in giving them respect otherwise.

However, the opening line bears a warning. Georgia State opened as just a 6.5-point underdog — a classically underdog-conducive number that signals the dog is alive. Despite that, the reaction has been one-way traffic toward Marshall. That’s understandable, as Georgia State has covered only one game all season and has been uncompetitive in most of the others. But the number itself demands a closer look.

Marshall enters fresh off a game in which they were heavily faded against undefeated James Madison — and yet the Herd managed to stay inside the number, losing by just 12 as a 13.5-point underdog. Now, in typical zig-zag fashion, the market may be overreacting to that outcome. The perception is that Marshall “played with” one of the Group of Five’s darlings. But here is the thing no one is telling you about, Georgia State engaged the Dukes in a 14-7 rock fight back in September where they could have won.

Put it all together — the opening line, the zig-zag dynamic, and the enhanced price — and Georgia State becomes the right side. An outright upset is possible, but we’ll gladly take the inflated points and let the chips fall where they may, as we say.

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