Pinnacle   +19½ -110    BET365  +19½ -110  Sportsinteraction  +19½ -110  888port  +19½ -110

Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

OKLAHOMA STATE +19½ over Kansas State

Boone-Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, OK

12:00 PM ET. Every once in a while, a point spread pops off the board not because the favorite is some unstoppable juggernaut, but because the market has totally abandoned the other side. That’s exactly what’s happening here. This number isn’t really about Kansas State at all—it’s about how far the Cowboys have been dragged into the basement.

Kansas State is benefiting from that perception. They’ve strung together a handful of impressive wins—big margins against Kansas, TCU, and UCF—and even in the games they didn’t win, like Texas Tech, they still looked competent. That cluster of strong performances has kept the Wildcats’ reputation buoyant. They’re being priced here as if the Pokes are hopeless. That’s a big mistake for a team taking back an inflated number in their own stead with nothing to lose.

Oklahoma State, nevertheless, has been an eyesore. They haven’t cashed a ticket since the weather was hot, and their résumé of FBS opposition is riddled with infamy. But that’s precisely where value is found. Teams that the market has completely given up on often become the most dangerous underdogs—especially at home, especially in November, and especially against a conference opponent. Look past the optics: Kansas State is being asked to walk into a hostile venue and win by three possessions. That’s a tall order for anyone.

This is the classic “hold your nose and take the value” kind of play. The number is oversized, the perception gap is enormous, and the home dog is sitting right in the sweet spot for a contrarian strike. Pokes plus the points.

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