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Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

ECU -3 over Memphis

Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – Greenville, NC

4:00 PM ET. Memphis enters the week licking its wounds after what can only be described as a season-ending collapse against Tulane last Thursday night. That wasn’t just a loss — it was all but the death of their playoff dream, the implosion of their Top-25 ranking, and the moment their grip on the AAC race effectively disappeared. One defeat, and the entire trajectory of the Tigers’ season changed. That’s not something teams typically bounce back from overnight, especially on the road.

That’s where we step in. Memphis is still 8–2 against the spread, meaning bettors have grown accustomed to profiting off them every week. That creates inflated pricing. That creates overvaluation. And that creates opportunity — on the other side. East Carolina, despite being just 5–4 ATS and carrying far less public shine, opened as the favorite here. That alone raises eyebrows. How often do you see a team that was a fringe CFP contender seven days ago suddenly taking points from a mid-tier AAC opponent? That’s not an error. That’s the oddsmakers telling you which side is actually equipped to deliver.

The Pirates enter in a completely different emotional state. They’ve won three straight. They’ve topped 40 points in each of those victories. Their offense is humming. Their confidence is rising. And they’re catching a Memphis defense that has been bleeding yards and explosive plays for weeks. Nothing about that Tigers unit suggests it’s ready to slow down a hot ECU attack.

Then there’s the motivation angle — ECU actually controls its own destiny in the AAC race. A win here and negotiable tilts at UTSA and FAU give the Pirates an inside path to the American championship game. If they win there, they may get into the playoff. Crazy, right? East Carolina is surging. Memphis is reeling. Which locker room do you want your money behind? Our answer is simple – the team with the Jolly Roger flag. Lay the points.

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