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Posted at 1:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NAVY +10 over South Florida

Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, MD

12:00 PM ET. South Florida suddenly finds itself back in the national conversation. With Memphis collapsing last week against Tulane, the Bulls have re-emerged as the presumed heir to the American Athletic Conference title and the affixed Group of Six playoff bid. They’re ranked again at #24, they’ve been profitable at 7-2 on the year against the spread, and the sentiment has once more swung in their favor. But that’s the surface narrative. The matchup tells a different story.

USF is being asked to play the role of the road favorite, a role they’ve handled poorly. In fact, the Bulls have only been road chalk once this season—at Memphis as a three-point favorite in October—and they lost outright. Yet here they are again, laying double digits against a Navy team whose metrics and recent scores disguise how live they actually are.

Navy has looked rough the last two weeks, no question. They were steamrolled by Notre Dame 49–10, a game in which they took plenty of betting support as a massive dog and never remotely threatened. Before that, the Midshipmen were beaten soundly at North Texas. Those losses—and their overall 2–7 record against the spread—bury the fact that prior to this slump, Navy had ripped off eight straight wins dating back to last year’s bowl victory over Oklahoma. Their AAC hopes are still intact with only one conference loss, meaning motivation is absolutely not an issue. In fact, if the Mids win here, they have all but punched their ticket to December to play for a CFP bid.

These two teams have the same strong straight-up but the Bulls have a bullish ATS profile. But we must annotate that USF consistently performs better when doubted than when expected to dominate or hold their end of their deal. When catching points at Florida, the Bulls embraced the underdog role. When they were doing the same at North Texas, they were passed on by many, and thrived. At Miami when they were a public dog? They floundered. That supports the dissertation of a squad struggling when the lights burn bright. We go back to their lone game as road favorites? A loss as a three-point choice. Now they’re laying even more against a Navy team that is comparable that the market has completely soured on, which creates the exact kind of inflation we look to attack.

This is November—college football’s month of volatility. Navy is a live home dog, emotionally invested, taking back an inflated number against an opponent unreliable as road chalk. The Midshipmen not only can cover this game—they have every tool to win it outright. Perfect setup. Navy plus the points.

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