Pinnacle   +7 -105    BET365  -2½ -105  Sportsinteraction  -2½ -105  888port  -2½ -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MICHIGAN STATE +7 over Penn State

Spartan Stadium – East Lansing, MI

3:30 PM ET. The emotional fallout from last week’s loss could linger for a while in Happy Valley. Penn State had the chance to hand second-ranked Indiana its first defeat, and late in the fourth quarter, it looked like they would. Then, in a sequence that will live on highlight reels for years, Indiana marched down the field and capped it with a jaw-dropping touchdown grab from Omar Cooper to steal a 27–24 win. For Penn State, a game that was supposed to restore faith instead ripped it away.

Losses like that don’t fade quickly. They drain teams mentally and physically, and now the Nittany Lions must regroup, hit the road, and lay points in a rivalry environment that’s anything but forgiving. Michigan State, on the other hand, gets to play the hunter. The Spartans have endured their share of growing pains this season, but none of that matters this week. The Land Grant Trophy brings out a different level of focus, and with Penn State reeling, this is Michigan State’s chance to flip the script.

Sure, recent history doesn’t flatter the Spartans—Penn State has dominated the last two meetings by absurd margins—but that’s exactly why the market expects another rout, even if the pricing says otherwise. The reality is that this setup favors the underdog. For Michigan State, this isn’t just another game—it’s their chance to change the story of their season. For Penn State, it is a dangerous spot, with motivation and focus both in question.

Add it up, and that seven-point cushion at home looks more like a live opportunity than a safety net. The situation screams “flat spot” for Penn State and “circle game” for Michigan State. That combination rarely ends well for the favorite. Sparty can win this outright but we’ll go ahead and take the points, trusting Michigan State to handle business and come in under the number.

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