Pinnacle  -3½ -105  BET365  -3½ -105   Sportsinteraction  -3½ -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Cincinnati -3½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. This line opened with Cincinnati -5½ before being bet down to -3½, and that’s where the value reveals itself. The market saw the Bengals nearly cough one up against Cleveland and it saw Jacksonville cruise past Carolina. That’s enough for the number to get shaved, but it’s a knee-jerk adjustment that ignores context.

The Bengals almost laid another Week 1 egg, something this team has made a bad habit of under Zac Taylor, going 2-9 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 since Joe Burrow arrived. The Bengals have historically started slow, so a one-point win over Cleveland isn’t exactly shocking. The key, though, is that Cincinnati’s defense slammed the door after halftime, forcing two picks and shutting out the Browns over their final six drives. That’s a wake-up call performance, not a red flag.

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is getting too much credit for beating up a Carolina team that might be the league’s softest touch. The Jags forced three turnovers but only found the end zone twice, committed 11 penalties, and Trevor Lawrence still gave the ball away. You can get away with sloppy execution against the Panthers. You don’t get away with it in Cincinnati against a defense that creates pressure and capitalizes on mistakes.

Joe Burrow didn’t look sharp last week — 113 yards through the air is his lowest full-game output in years. But Burrow doesn’t stay in neutral for long, especially with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins ready to torch a Jacksonville secondary that wasn’t exactly tested by Bryce Young. The Jags looked dominant on paper, but that was against a rookie QB behind one of the league’s worst O-lines. That isn’t a barometer for success on the road in this spot.

This is less about falling in love with Cincinnati and more about fading the inflation around Jacksonville. The Jags are being priced as if they’ve “arrived” after beating Carolina. We’ll wait until Trevor Lawrence strings together a clean game before we buy that stock.

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