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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City +100 over Philadelphia

4:25 PM ET. The market has a short memory. Philadelphia survived Dallas at home last week in a weather-delayed rock fight, and the narrative is that they “handled business.” Meanwhile, Kansas City is being downgraded for losing a showcase game in Brazil against a division rival. Put that all in a blender, and somehow the Chiefs are a home underdog in September. That’s not just rare — it’s almost sacrilegious.

Kansas City didn’t look sharp against the Chargers. The pass rush was non-existent, the secondary got lit up, and Patrick Mahomes looked human behind a line that couldn’t hold. Still, this is Andy Reid, extra prep time, and Arrowhead at night. The market is quick to bury the Chiefs, but it’s not like Philly looked like world-beaters either. They coughed up 20 first-half points to Dak Prescott before a lightning delay froze both offenses. Strip away the optics, and their defense still has cracks.

That Philly stop unit is not the same one that won a Super Bowl ring. They lost key depth in the pass rush and their best playmaker in the secondary. Now Jalen Carter might miss time, which would leave a big hole in the middle. That matters when you’re trying to contain Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and whatever gadget Andy Reid draws up. KC’s receiving corps may lack a true WR1 right now, but Mahomes makes average guys look dangerous, and one week of struggles doesn’t erase seven years of proof.

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