Pinnacle  +6½ -110  BET365  +6½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +6½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago +6½ over Detroit

1:00 PM ET. The entire football world just watched Chicago implode on Monday night. Up double digits in the fourth quarter, the Bears managed to turn what looked like a statement road win into a choke job of the highest order. That collapse wasn’t just bad; it was embarrassing, and the market has pounced on it. Which is exactly why we’re interested.

Detroit, meanwhile, gets priced like they’re still the darlings of last year’s hype machine. The Lions are being treated as if they’re automatic at home — as if Ford Field is Arrowhead or Lambeau. It’s not and now the Lions are spotting nearly a major against a Bears squad that outplayed Minnesota for 45 minutes? That’s not value. That’s a market inefficiency.

Caleb Williams looked like a rookie in crunch time, but there were flashes in that game where he looked like he could be the guy. Chicago moved the ball with ease, converted on third downs, and dictated tempo before the roof caved in. Those positives get buried under the narrative of “Bears blow it again,” but in this market, perception always outweighs reality. We’ll gladly scoop up the inflated points that come with it.

The reaction in Chicago was predictable. Bears fans and the Twitter-verse turned on Williams within minutes of the meltdown. The pitchforks were out for the sophomore QB, the head coach, and the offensive coordinator as if one brutal fourth quarter defines the season. That’s the beauty of recency bias: the public sees dysfunction, we see overreaction and opportunity. 

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