Pinnacle  -3½ -105  BET365  -3½ -105 Sportsinteraction  -3½ -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota -3½ over Atlanta

8:20 PM ET. What we have here is a market reacting to what it saw Monday night. Minnesota looked like garbage for 45 minutes, with rookie J.J. McCarthy swimming in the deep end and the offense dead on arrival. Then the fourth quarter hit. The Vikings ripped off 21 points, flipped a loss into a win, and showed us the outline of why this staff was willing to ride with the kid. One ugly stretch doesn’t erase the ceiling.

The market, however, loves Atlanta’s “moral victory” over Tampa Bay. The Falcons outgained the Bucs, moved the chains, and Michael Penix looked polished. That’s fine. The problem is that Tampa Bay was every bit as disjointed as Minnesota was early Monday night, only the Bucs never found another gear. Atlanta took advantage, yet still couldn’t close. This is the same group that couldn’t generate a pass rush last year and is still leaning on a bunch of names that didn’t get home then and aren’t getting home now.

Minnesota’s defense is the differentiator here. Brian Flores dials up pressure like he’s allergic to vanilla, and that chaos is exactly what disrupts a rookie quarterback. Penix may have looked comfortable in Week 1, but the Buccaneers’ front is a different animal than what he’ll see here. McCarthy, meanwhile, is getting better reps by the day. His “breakout” came with some help from flags, yes, but there was also command, decisiveness, and a little swagger. He doesn’t have to be brilliant — he just has to play on schedule while the defense does the heavy lifting.

Atlanta is going to get hyped because they looked functional in a division that barely qualifies as professional football. Minnesota is going to get discounted because the cameras caught their worst three quarters of the year on primetime and most of the market went to bed before they Vikes woke up. That’s the recipe for deflated points.

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