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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Detroit -½ +140 over Seattle

Regulation only

9:40 PM EST. Seattle's five-game road trip ended Saturday night in an 8-3 humiliation in Florida, and tonight the Kraken play their first home game back — a spot that sounds like a relief and plays like a trap. Teams coming home off long trips routinely come out flat: the routine changes, the legs aren't quite there, and the building expects an energy the players don't have. Detroit, in town and rested since Saturday, is the wrong visitor for a flat first period.

The standings say Seattle (5-3-1) is the better team. The ice says otherwise. The Kraken's 5-on-5 shot attempt share is 42.02% and their expected goals share is 42.77% — bottom-five hockey — while they've scored 28 goals at even strength on the strength of a 30.00% high-danger shooting percentage, a number with nowhere to go but down. Detroit's process is genuinely better: a 52.53% expected goals share, a 59.12% high-danger chance share, and Alex DeBrincat driving the offense with five goals and nine points. Seattle's record and Seattle's play are two different things, and the record is what's being priced.

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