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Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change.

Tampa Bay +100 over Vegas

T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, NV

8:00 PM ET. OT included. Let’s talk about perception. If you’re only glancing at the standings, the recent results, or the hype surrounding Vegas’ home dominance, you might see Tampa Bay as a dicey play here. The Golden Knights have won seven of their last eight at home, just pumped six goals past Detroit, and look every bit like the Pacific Division powerhouse they’re supposed to be. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just coughed up a golden opportunity against Utah, lost ground in the Atlantic Division race, and, by their own coach’s admission, have been the NHL’s version of a yo-yo and that’s exactly why we’re stepping in.

The market sees Vegas as the more trustworthy side here, and why wouldn’t they? The Knights are rolling. The Lightning? Well, “inconsistent” would be putting it kindly. But look a little deeper, and you’ll see that this number isn’t about Tampa’s inconsistency—it’s about market perception over reality.

Consider this: Tampa just beat a much better team than Vegas in Dallas. They did it in a playoff-style game, on the road, against a Stars squad that doesn’t give much away. Meanwhile, that game against Utah? A schedule loss with a third-string goalie making his first NHL start. It was never going to be a good spot for them, and we’re not going to hold that result against them.

Now it’s back to Vasilevskiy in net, and if you think Tampa isn’t capable of flipping the switch when needed, you haven’t been paying attention. This is still a battle-tested core with deep playoff experience, and in a true 50/50 game, getting them at even money is a bet we’ll make every time.

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