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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Montreal -1½ +115 over San Jose

7:00 PM EST. San Jose is playing its fourth game in six nights and the second half of a back-to-back, having lost 3-1 in Toronto last night, with Alexander Wennberg leaving that game with an upper-body injury and his status unclear tonight. Montreal hasn't played since Saturday, when it beat Buffalo in overtime, and the Canadiens get this one at the Bell Centre against a team dragging itself into town on fumes.

The Sharks' record says 4-4-1, but the process says something much worse. San Jose's expected goals share at 5-on-5 is 39.95%, its high-danger chance share is 38.00%, and it has been outscored 19-12 at even strength. This is one of the thinnest rosters in the league being asked to play its fourth game in six days. Montreal, meanwhile, controls play like a real team: 55.37% of the shot attempts, 54.36% of the expected goals and 58.10% of the scoring chances at 5-on-5.

San Jose's only path here is its goaltender stealing the night or Montreal sleepwalking through a Tuesday home game, and the price accounts for neither. The Canadiens are -205 on the moneyline, a price we don't play, but the puck line at plus money is the same bet with a fair payout attached. A rested Montreal team that lives in the offensive zone against a gassed opponent carrying a 39.95% expected goals share should win this by two more often than +115 implies. 

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