Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Boston +142 over Dallas  

8:00 PM EST. This is Dallas's ninth straight game in a different city. The run has carried the Stars through St. Louis, Nashville, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Denver twice and Chicago, with a couple of one-night stops at home mixed in that did nothing but add laundry, and it finally ends tonight at the American Airlines Center. The market's answer is to make Dallas a -164 favorite, as if sleeping in their own beds makes the previous nine games disappear.

It also ignores what Dallas actually is right now. The Stars have allowed seven goals at 5-on-5 all season, which is remarkable — but they've scored only 14, their expected goals share is 50.62%, and not one of their eight games has produced more than five total goals. This is a team winning low-event coin flips behind Jake Oettinger (1.00 goals against, .952 save percentage), and coin flips don't deserve -164. Boston, meanwhile, is 7-2, has won five straight, is 4-1 on the road, and its own goaltending gives nothing away in this matchup: Jeremy Swayman is 6-1-0 with a 1.85 goals against and a .934 save percentage.

In fairness, Boston's 66.67% goals share is running ahead of its process too, so this is two teams due a correction playing each other. The difference is that one of them just finished a nine-city odyssey and the other is rested, rolling, and getting +142. When the spot and the price point the same way, we don't overthink it. 

Sportsinteraction