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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Columbus -1½ +163 over Toronto

7:00 PM EST. Toronto is playing its fourth game in six nights and the second half of a back-to-back — it beat San Jose 3-1 at home last night — and it shows up in Columbus short-handed and tired. The Leafs are missing John Tavares, Chris Tanev and Max Domi, William Nylander is battling an illness, and after Sergei Bobrovsky faced 31 shots last night, the net tonight figures to belong to the backup. Columbus last played Sunday, a tight 2-1 loss in Minnesota where Cam Talbot stopped 32 shots.

Columbus's own numbers are nothing special — a 45.00% expected goals share at 5-on-5 — and we're not going to pretend otherwise. This play is about the other bench. Toronto's 5-on-5 goals share is 40.91%, its high-danger save percentage is 79.03%, and that was with its regulars in the lineup and its starter in net. Strip out Tavares, Tanev and Domi, add the fourth game in six nights, a road back-to-back and a backup goaltender, and this starts to look like a price built on the name on the front of the jersey rather than the team that will actually dress.

The market knows some of it — Columbus wouldn't be favored otherwise — but it still leaves the puck line at a number that pays properly for the spot. Home, rested, healthy, against a depleted team on a back-to-back tail: Columbus checks every box, and +163 for a two-goal win is the right way to play it. 

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