Pinnacle +159 BET365 +160 Sportsinteraction +150 888Sport +160

Posted at 1:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Cleveland over Philadelphia

6:40 PM EST. Ben Lively (RHP - CLE) has a wide variety of pitches, as he brings five offerings over 10% of the time against lefties, including his four-seam (36.1%), sinker (20.4%), sweeper (15.4%), changeup (15.1%), and curveball (10.9%). Versus the Phillies' big lefty bats (which include Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper), Lively’s sweeper (.226 wOBA) is his most interesting pitch, but his changeup (.238 wOBA) and curveball (.142 wOBA) are also effective tools in his toolbox. Lively might lack the strikeout upside, but he's an unexciting pitcher who holds value as an underdog in this spot.

The Phils are the only team in the majors that has a win percentage over .600 (64-38), and that has them overvalued in the market. Perhaps Philadelphia ends the season in first place overall and with that high winning percentage, but if they don’t, which is far more likely, there is going to be great value in fading them here in the second half of the season.

Today, the Phils will send Cristopher Sánchez (LHP - PHI) out for his 20th start of the season, after he took the loss last Saturday vs. the Pirates where he gave up just two runs, but also only struck out two in 5.2 IP. On the year, Sánchez has an ERA of 2.97, but his xERA is higher at 3.59. Like the Phils, Sánchez is incredibly overvalued and we are going to attack them today. Last we checked, the Guardians are a pretty damn good ball club and getting them at this inflated price is too good to pass up.

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

Detroit      +125

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Arizona       -145

Detroit    +134

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