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Posted at 12:00 AM EST (Friday). Odds subject to change.

UFC 304

PPV on ESPN+

Wager: Nathaniel Wood by TKO/KO (+145 at SportsInteraction)

9:30 PM EST. Nathaniel Wood had a very unfortunate loss nine months ago, for more reasons than one. The 30-year-old was climbing the ranks of featherweight, coming off three impressive wins against Charles Rosa, Charles Jourdain and Andre Fili. Looking to build even more momentum, Wood battled Muhammadjon Naimov last October and almost everything that could go wrong did. At the start of the fight, Naimov landed a fierce hook, dropping Wood to the canvas almost immediately in the first minute of the bout. Wood is known for his resilience and wasn’t on the ground for long, grappling and ultimately regaining control of the octagon. Then, in each of the first 2 rounds, Wood got hit with not one but two low-blows, crippling the Brit for long pauses and stifling any rhythm he had gained. It was an uphill climb for “the Prospect” for the entire fight, and eventually Naimov won by unanimous decision. It should be noted that Wood was seconds away from knocking out Naimov in the final minute of the fight; he just ran out of time.

On Saturday, Wood will get the opportunity to exact vengeance and regain the momentum he had going into last October, and he’ll do it against an opponent that might not see many more days in the octagon. Daniel Pineda is a stalwart of MMA, joining Dana White’s company back in 2012 and switching back-and-forth between different promotions along a 43-fight career. The Texan has seen it all, there’s no doubt about that, but his form has been anything but stellar for a long time. Multiple no contests in the Professional Fighters League and in the UFC in 2019 became a stain on his reputation, the result of the now 38-year-old testing positive for increased levels of testosterone. Upon returning to the promotion in 2020, Pineda got a nice win against Herbert Burns but then followed it up with a loss to Cub Swanson. Most recently he lost to Alex Caceres.

The reality is, Pineda has been a happy customer just being a part of the UFC, as he’s clearly communicated on many occasions. "The Pit" Pineda just loves to fight, and he certainly knows that any shots at a title or supreme popularity are beyond his reach at this point. The same cannot be said for Nathaniel Wood. He calls himself ”The Prospect” for a reason, and at 30 years old he still believes he can become one of the best. His last loss was a kink in the armor, but it was also an outlier. We like Wood to engage with Pineda early and often, something we know his opponent will gladly reciprocate. The quicker and more powerful Wood should end the battle decisively. 

Farley

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