May 10, 2024 11:57:12
Your strategies and approcch are fresh, entertaining and educational. I have becomem a much better handicapper and I owe it all to you and your team. Keep up the great worlk Sherwood. You're a gem.
Greatly appreciate the kind words Aaron. You made our day! Thanks!
May 9, 2024 13:07:17
Todays San Fran you state they lost the first two games and are trying to get on the board. They won the first two games and are going for the sweep.Like seriously how do you miss that. Almost as bad when you had the Jay`s Yusei Kikuchi as a right hander and listed a bunch of stats pertaining to him being right handed. Very sloppy capping. Yes I know it`s free.
Do you have any idea how many stats, results and research we look up and write about every single day? Over the course of 365 days a year without a single day off, from time to time, we?re going to get something wrong. If this is what irks you, then fuck off. You think I care if you visit or read our stuff? I don?t. Yes, I know you?re an idiot.
May 3, 2024 06:40:51
Here's a helpful tip that I have found in this industry. Do not give a pick and have your first word "Hedging". "Hedging for OT might not be a bad idea tonight." Shows you lack confidence in your pick. Hope this helps.
Jan 31, 2024 05:28:47
Hey Guys, continued good work on the website and opinions. They are much appreciated. I believe your best asset is the transparency and keeping records of your plays. Anyone can spit out plays left and right and not be accountable to whether they come in or not?!?! You guys don't. It would be great though if you could update the "annual" or "calendar year" records by years for 2022 and now 2023 by sport, as you have a long track record of doing this and again it gives you the best of credibility for putting your money where your mouth is! (...good or bad!). Thanks, keep battling/grinding it out Guys!
Long time follower
Jan 8, 2024 17:18:18
RE: National Championship, :o) betting on kiddies is always, well, a gamble! They do the wildest things sometimes. Let?s hope the refereeing is decent tonight (that would go along ways) I don?t think Michigan wins by a landslide - either team may be in a position to have to pull a trick play to generate a change of momentum - I?m thinking we could see a ?field goal? difference in the final score - 31-28 seems possible - good luck to all
Jan 8, 2024 15:33:34
Just a little confused. On the site sherwood has Michigan But Farley had Washington on twiiter how do we know who To tail ? Is Finnie still involved? After 2 consecutive losing years Is there a consistent effort to change it up or to stick with it? Hope we Have a profitable year this year
Farley had two bets, one on each side, as he had a future @ +900 and then bet Washington PLUS the points.
Jan 7, 2024 09:36:15
Your Hockey plays especially the heavy underdogs. Your analysis and insight has been spot on. Last night was a perfect example with Buffalo and Pittsburgh. Thanks again as I continue to follow.
Thank you
Jan 6, 2024 18:36:22
The Law - Not sure if you misread their writeup or they corrected it before I got here, but the current writeup is accurate, as of 6:30pm EST. Go Texans!!!
We got it
Jan 6, 2024 12:22:08
Just reading your write up for the Texans/Colts game tonight. Not sure where you?re getting your information about playoff scenarios but the winner of the game is in the playoffs and neither team needs help unless the game ends in a tie. Only matter is if the Jags win on Sunday who wins the division and how the seeding will work.
The Law
Dec 28, 2023 15:09:02
One thing I have noticed is that Farley's sports betting endeavors provide a masterclass in pontificating on the unpredictable, where his Socratic wisdom navigates the turbulent seas of uncertainty. With an argo of hubris and a Braggadocious flair, his pontifications on odds exhibit a unique blend of confidence that leaves one marveling at the intricate dance between knowledge and chance.
Dec 28, 2023 14:37:12
Hey Sherwood, just wanted to thank you again for the picks. NFL has really been looking good recently. Also totally agree with your analyst philosophy that only bad handicappers actually sell picks (no offense Farley - I know you?re still trying to prove yourself out there). Keep up the great work!
Dec 25, 2023 04:20:28
loved the NE pick tonight. I keep betting low when I know it's worth more. gotta learn to have a little more fun now and then after being drilled about proper bankroll management. no thanks to you. but also thanks to you. :D @cottonblonde
Dec 20, 2023 23:55:12
Sherwood?s stats/. 18-24fg. 50pts 14reb 10 assists 4steals Dominant stuff. Great picks
Your stat line last night in nba terms
Oct 15, 2023 13:36:25
I love how you guys stick to your buy low position no matter what! Your New England +2.5 over Las Vegas pick is the best example of this in recent memory and I'm gonna climb on board and see what happens!
Oct 12, 2023 17:27:51
Phenomenal move to add Farley to the site. I too have close coworkers on the spectrum and it is so great to hear their insights and unique perspectives. Way to give back!
Sep 28, 2023 14:44:29
Listened to your podcast Farley. Some good stuff, but you do know that Jacksonville is not at home, unless they moved to England in the last few days?
Aug 31, 2023 14:41:26
Really appreciate your insight and your picks!
Jul 24, 2023 13:52:08
Really surprised you didn?t bet on the Tigers this afternoon with the Giants in one of those awful one night stop over spots for a makeup game on the way back to the west coast. I remember you talking about how great this is a spot for the home team, and with the money piling in on SF this morning, this seems like a slam dunk -1.5 plus money bet of yours
May 15, 2023 10:44:48
Gents, I?ve been on quite the roll lately on mlb. Admittedly, i know jack squat about baseball but have won o/s at an 80% clip the last week or so. All I?ve done is look at starting pitching ERA?s and WHIP numbers and have made my wagers. Please tell me that my approach is way too simplistic and my roll has been a complete fluke and I?m overlooking some obvious baseball metrics that I need to factor in. I need to be humbled and knocked off my perch but also want to keep riding my hot streak! Love your analysis as always and anxiously awaiting the start of the cfl season. Keep it up guys and thanks! Sarb British Columbia
Keep doing what you're doing. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Thanks for the positive message and keep 'er rolling! '
May 13, 2023 00:22:56
This is a simple shout out to Matt/Finnie - Ya nailed it bud (leafs panthers game 5). Wish I would have bet more. Hope the kids are doing well (and hopefully they're not leaf fans.) You guys practice what you preach, you play the odds, you play the money and I love it. Godspeed; Peace and Love!
Thanks BJ.
May 9, 2023 10:46:42
Curious now that both you and Finnie are putting your names behind your plays specifically if you?ll have an option on your site to track your plays individually?
Hi George. We will not track individually, as Finnie and I go over the games togther every day and we mutually agree on what we're posting.
May 1, 2023 22:49:59
I?m guessing Glenn ?Chico? Resch won?t be getting a Christmas Card from you this year. What an unexpected and spectacular collapse by the Broadway blue shirts. Not the first time they?ve fallen flat with a loaded roster and probably won?t be the last. Jeckyl and Hyde series for sure, nobody was backing the Devils after they threw up all over themselves in Games 1 & 2. Canes/Leafs rematch from 2002 looming.
Canes/Leafs rematch? Highly doubtful. More like Panthers/Devils in my always humble opinion.
Apr 21, 2023 21:58:11
Great series picks at great value, all will not come in but you will profit, as usual, good work. Like that Rangers Stanley Cup pick, great goaltender with all that firepower and Stud D, best of luck
Apr 17, 2023 17:17:09
I'll say this....Bruinssss are legit and are the deepest team talent wise from top to bottom! If you want to exchange goals with them go ahaed, of you want to play a defensive style game go ahead! They will beat you!
Apr 8, 2023 11:22:02
Florida Panthers -1.5 a great play today. Oshie & Ovechkin likely on the rack and the Caps are as dispirited a bunch of hockey players as you?ll find in the league as they aren?t used to playing out the string. And it doesn?t hurt that Alex Lyon is trending towards being this year?s Andrew Hammond or Jordan Binnington. Let?s eat!
Apr 4, 2023 00:33:32
Sherwood how does a night that looks so possibly sweet and a chance at going 5-0 end up at 2-3. Minny like are they for real. Arizona brings in a 33 year old reliever who?s been out of the league for 8 years and he gives up a back to back walk off which is unheard of trust me go check Sam Diego st. just packs it in the last 6 Minutes after cutting it to 7. Man so brutal.
Mar 28, 2023 07:08:22
Great call on Habs last night. I was in the building and the lower bowl was a sea of red. The Canadiens fed off the energy of the crowd and skated their butts off for three periods. You could tell they were really up for the game. Having said that, I'm thinking it's going to be quite a comedown playing in Philly tonight. They won't have the same fan support or spoiler motivation to get them past the inevitable fatigue of a back to back with travel. Flyers in regulation?
Thanks Joel. I wouldn't deter anyone from playing a game they like. Indeed, Philadelphia is in a good spot and will probably win. However, at -170, that looks steep to me for a team like the Flyers. The price is going to have to drop (good chance it will) for us to hop on board. Philadelphia has been fortunate with 3 straight wins in which they deserved none of them. They have also won 4 of 5, which also goes against our "too late top the party" mantra. Nonetheless, it does look like a good spot. We wish you the best of luck should you decide to play it.
Mar 19, 2023 12:24:53
I've been a Kansas State Wildcats fan since the late 1970s when Mike Evans and Rolando Blackman played for them and I lived in Leavenworth, Kansas. It's never been easy to be a KSU fan in a state that has the Kansas Jayhawks, but I've stuck with them for almost 50 years! I was pissed when third seeded KSU was put on the board as an underdog to Kentucky, so I loved your writeup on this game! KU was eliminated yesterday so it's time for the purple and white Wildcats to go on a long run in the tourney!!!
Mar 13, 2023 16:15:22
These season totals writeups are such a great read. I would like to echo the below comments ask for a Brewers deep dive, and maybe a ChiSox/ChiCubs to be added to the queue! Thank you for all your efforts Brian! There are better bettors within all of us.
Thanks man. White Sox/Cubs/Crew coming up.
Mar 9, 2023 11:05:10
Nice job on a daily basis. Very grateful for all your hard work. Interested in o/u MLB on Boston and Milwaukee. Thinking under will be the way to go. Thanks again. Bob L
Bob L
Thank you Bob. Will definitely do my best to post Boston and Milwaukee. You can expect it this week.
Mar 9, 2023 10:49:01
It was great to ride along with you on NC Central and the Clippers yesterday. Your analysis was spot on and made complete sense. This is great time to start heating up. Here's a side note: Last week sportsbooks started listing o/u lines of spring training games. They appear to be very lazy. Lots of Cactus League games are at flat O/U 11, just like today. I'm a baseball guy, and I did no handicapping, just playing them blind u11 and throwing them in round robins. Spring training games DO end after 9 innings. I've had a couple days where I've swept board. Just putting that out there as we are all looking for profitable wagers.
Thanks for writing Tax. Thanks also for sharing your observations on MLB totals during spring training. There's power in numbers and the more people looking out for profitable opportunities, the better. Continued success my friend.
Mar 8, 2023 10:34:29
I?ve messaged a handful of times over the years just to say thanks Sherwood, for all you do and for FREE! Here?s another one of those moments? thanks buddy, you?re a good man. P.S. Looking forward to cfl season and your picks? you helped me clean up on so many ?unders? last season!
Sarb - British Columbia
Thanks Sarb, it's always good to hear from you. We appreciayte the kind words. We're looking forward to CFL too.
Mar 2, 2023 08:44:55
Great call on Edmonton last night. The Leafs were still at the Springsteen concert.
Mike Baron
Mar 2, 2023 08:44:04
Great call on Edmonton last night. The Leafs were still at the Springsteen concert
Mike B
Mar 1, 2023 08:53:02
Hey Sherwood, amazing advice on the Arizona Coyotes last night. Chicago mailed it in after losing top players to trades. The Hawks looked like a deflated team with 8 shots per period and only 2/24 being legit scoring chances. My friend and I hit regulation and -1.5 large. We will raise a glass to you at the Keg this weekend. Cheers my friend - don't listen to the negative people that comment - you rock!
Thanks Larry. Glad you cashed. For every one idiot troll that lives in their mother's basement, there are 150 class individuals like yourself. I appreciate the time you took to write.
Feb 25, 2023 18:02:41
Just asking you the question for your thought process- chill out a bit Sherwood- why so on edge, bitter and mean for no reason?
You set the tone, not me.
Feb 24, 2023 19:55:34
Hey Sherwood, just a private note, I was with you on Flames vs Vegas, and like you got fucked. I live in Calgary and so follow them This team is second behind Carolina in shots allowed and 28th in goalie percentage. The Flames with decent goaltending would lead th Western Conference Frustrating when ur on them Your write up pregame was bang on Please Treliving, trade for Cam Talbott for this season. Or bring up Dustin Wolff, the sensation Otherwise when you bet this team, the Flames. expect 1 soft goal every game You were on the right side, but.....Sutter must be losing his mind, I am
Goaltending is a weak spot for a lot of teams but we cannot base our picks on something so unpredictable. Goalies run hot and cold but we absolutely hear what you're saying. Thanks for taking the time to write Tom.
Feb 24, 2023 19:02:09
Why would you wager money on a season long wager. Especially at a minus return?
If you have to worry about a small sum of money for seven months, maybe you shouldn?t be betting at all. What is the big deal about a seven month investment that has great value? Are you going to show 91% ROI in seven months on any of your investments, wise guy? Aside from that, we?ve been posting season win totals for over 20 years with great success. There are folks that like to bet them and we?re offering our opinion to help our readers make a decision. In a 162 game season, one can make one bet and have interest in a team for an entire year. That also applies to all other sports too. Tie up money for seven months. That?s funny. Here?s an idea, attend a quilt festival and don?t worry about anyone tying up a small amount of cash for a few months to enjoy a full season. Jesus.
Feb 24, 2023 15:51:44
Big fan. The only advice I can give to you Sherwood is to take a break from pre game picks for a while. Focus on your in play calls and out them on the site with a time stamp. Your last few calls on Calgary and Vancouver to come back were sick. You can do serious damage.
Duly noted Kev.
Feb 3, 2023 19:03:44
Big fan Sherwood. Win or lose, I always enjoy your writeups. Not sure I mentioned it before, sometimes even if the play you chose doesnt hit, yoiur writeups are still valueable because ill retain some of that info and look for upcoming matchups and match it with my own capping. Keep up the good work. You are one of the few honest cappers in this industry. Love the baseball writeups especially.
Rom Juan
Very much appreciate the kind words RJ. Thank you.
Feb 2, 2023 14:23:28
What a great morning nugget you posting the early IUPUI pick. I'm in the west so was a great way to enjoy over morning coffee this morning ...and pay for them for the next few months with the win! THANK YOU. Keep up the work on finding NCAAB gems even though it's been a tough start to your season with that.
Thank you.
Feb 1, 2023 16:12:49
It is the same as everyone coming home from Vegas talking about their winnings. Yup they just keep building bigger and nicer hotel casinos because the patrons keep on cleaning them out. True people win however they fail to remember those pesky losers. Keep up the solid work Sir.
Jan 31, 2023 14:15:58
Hahahaha your reply to Joel is a classic....just cracked me up for the day thanks! We all know these "after the fact" guys, they aren't hard to find! Keep up the good work on digging deep.
Big supporter
My biggest pet peeve in this business is people that email me after the gane has started or when it is over with some absurd comment, like "How could you? Or, I'm surprised you took _______________".
Jan 29, 2023 19:06:00
Funny how we all forgot about Cincy?s porous O-Line. Cincy was getting 5 points last week and only 2 today. Value play on home team. Surprised you went the other way.
No, what's funny is how you sent this about 45 minutes after the game started when Burrow was sacked twice and Cinci was having problems moving the ball. You're a fucking genius after the game started. I'll give you another 2 great plays today. Maple Leafs to beat Washington and Philadelphia to beat San Francisco. Jesus. Much like your other comments, re: Sabres going to back to the draft lottery after they lost 5 or 6 in a row. Stop playing results. Not a fucking word before that about Sabres not going anywhere. Not a fucking word about value on KC until after the game started. Stop already.
Jan 29, 2023 18:10:18
Woah, you nailed that Charlotte vs Miami pick today!...Pick on, mang!!!!
Thanks Sean
Jan 17, 2023 09:42:11
Name: Good Morning... Just wanted to shoot you an "ataboy" for your write up on the Tampa / Dallas game which was spot on....I did not know about Brady losing all that money n the FTX scandal which in turn made your analysis that much better. Thanks again and take care my friend
Thank you for saying so Jim. Brady is not going out in style.
Jan 16, 2023 13:55:42
Hi, I just wanted to say that I may have sent you an email a few years ago bemoaning the fact that your winners were losers. I did not understand the value proposition that you lay out everyday and the outstanding research that you do. You absolutely killed it during Bowl season and I profited off your FREE research and recommendations as I don't follow college football that much. I understand now the value you seek and I can build or follow my own bet or not bet off of my own research. Just wanted to say many thanks and sorry for railing prior when I did not understand.
Rodney B
Thanks Rodney. Appreciate you saying so. All the best!
Jan 16, 2023 12:19:17
I know I'm becoming a better sports bettor when I make my picks before yours come out and they're the exact same. I already bet on BUF and SEA this morning. It's all about learning about value and edges. Thanks for all that you do!
Big Fan
You're very welcome and I appreciate ytou taking teh time.
Jan 4, 2023 18:25:51
Hi Brian, Just came back from Vegas. Boy oh boy has sports betting changed? and not in our favour. All the casinos have in-play but only on SELECT games. I guess these are the games where they can better predict the outcome. And get this? you can only bet these few slect games during commercial breaks. In addition, you are not allowed to parlay in-play. Man oh man? does that suck or what? Every casino is the same. They?re were 7 NHL games one day last week and only 1 game was offered in-play. Also, parlays vary greatly in payouts. MGM casinos have the worse payouts. Venetian (William Hill) has the better payouts. Caesar?s, which used to be the worse, is not that bad either. At MGM if you bet a 4 team parlay with odds of -110, -110, -110 and -105 you only get 10.5 - 1 odds. This is pretty bad. If you bet Pickering casino you will get over 12.5 -1. AND you can parlay all in-play at Niagara Falls or on sports betting apps. I used to go to Vegas quite often but everyhting there is one big money trap. Thanks for all the sports tips
I haven't been in years but thanks for sharing. It could help some people who might have thought about going.
Dec 26, 2022 18:51:32
Thanks for the big, juicy New Mexico State Aggies over Bowling Green pick!!! I read 6 predictions that took the Falcons but made my bet after reading your very convincing writeup! $$$$$$$$$$$ Have a great Boxing Day!!!
Dec 22, 2022 08:23:04
Great example of in game variance?I took the Habs last night liking the value at +245. Colorado is a little banged up. Habs are up 1-0 for most of the game?Allen is looking like Price and the game goes into OT tied 1-1?drouin could have finished it off easily but back it goes the other way and Colorado wins. Colorado dominated the second and third periods and MTL was hanging on but they could have also walked out with the W.
I'll argue until I'm blue in the face that hockey is the most luck-driven sport of them all and that 70% of single game outcomes are nothing but luck-driven. Merry Christmas.
Dec 21, 2022 15:58:32
Love your write ups. I read it daily. Do you have a section where I can read the previous ones from begining of the season?
Rom Juan
Dec 16, 2022 14:08:28
Great call on Sabres last night. Analysis was on the nose.
Appreciate that Don.
Dec 9, 2022 14:11:56
Zona fresh off a 14 game, month-long road trip. Playing in just there 5th home game at the Mullett. Bruins have won 19 straight games vs Zona. Bs -1.5 only -130. Because hockey is wierd, Zona wins outright tonight. You heard it here first.
Beautiful call. Hope you made a bundle.
Dec 5, 2022 09:29:14
Brian, Random piece of advice. Sometimes you seem to bet teams simply because their stock is low (or the other teams' is high) and you feel like you are getting a point or two in CLV value. However, I would argue that it isn't enough of a reason. It would keep you off every single team whose stock is high, which includes very hot teams on a roll. Sometimes those teams are worth the extra point or two. You're a consistent winner but I feel like the ones that you have been losing lately fall into the category that I described.
Dec 1, 2022 07:36:51
Curious how you played out the Howard play? What a slaughter that was! I didn't see your Tweet until later but probably would have just bought out and cut the loss if I did? I just like to hear other strategies when I can. I assume you heard the 2 players being out news from the actual broadcast? Thanks.
Unfortunately I wasn't able to do anything. By the time I realized (about 4 mins into the game), that two players were out, I went to the live linesd and Yale was -18½. Because I got Howard at +12½, I could not put myself in a postion to be middled (lose both wagers). It had to get to -12½ or less and it never did. I was watching the beginning of the Maple Leafs game (wanted to see Borje tribute) so I missed the start of the Yale game. Had I watched taht pregame show, I would've gotten out of the wager immediately. Timing is everything.
Nov 22, 2022 12:58:17
The SF Ncaab game I like, but see Wichita favored everywhere and you have SF -2.5...was that a typo for your write-up or something up???
It's just line movement. The market is hammering the Shockers.
Nov 15, 2022 15:44:51
Brian, I know last night as a rough one and the NHL hasn't been good to you lately. Heck, I'm going through a brutal 3-15 slide in the NHL with my own picks. I would actually be pretty close to even if the OT games worked out in my favour but I know that 3-15 slide can also turn into a 15-3 run with value on my side. Keep plugging away! The kiss of death in the NHL will turn into the hand of winning soon!
Thanks RV, Appreciate the encouraging words.
Nov 15, 2022 02:30:08
About your Calgary wager last night...You can chalk it up to luck, officiating, whatever - at the end of the day the NHL has the most parity out of any pro sports and a reason why I believe it should be bet live based on momentum swings and other factors - similar to how you approach NBA. I don't study the analytics, I'm a very casual bettor, but. if you know a little bit of history, a bit about the coach, have a bit of a read on how certain players - well known or not - are doing, and have watched the game for the most part, you can sort of see some of the collapses or conquests coming - sometimes. Basically, you the patterns to spot are out there - live - and while there is more juice on the bets usually, books haven't yet correctly capitalized on these things. While some say the 'golden age' of gambling has just begun, in reality it has long passed. That said, with a new trillon dollar market emerging, there's an edge thats still there just based on the 'efficient market' as you like to call it. With AI helping prediction/models become more accurate in real time, I'm worried that at some point down the road, not too long from now, this may change. TBH, I haven't tailed a lot of your NHL plays for quite a while now (years) because as you say they seemingly end up as the kiss of death when everything appears to be in theit favour. But of course, I love the write-ups, I read em all, and I use em to make informed decisions. Thanks as always, and when the as usual I'll complain about not enough live betting segments. A once a month or bi-monthly thing would be neat. I know you guys do for fun, but it would be cool and might help grow things a little. Cheers, thanks again for this gem of a site.
Appreciate it that a lot BJ and we will absolutely so some live seminars soon. B
Nov 11, 2022 13:56:24
Love your insight regardless of whether or not I agree with the side chosen. Allows for a much broader 40K foot view whereby we can apply that same logic to different games. Real reason for my comment is that i wanted to say thank you for the Remembrance Day post. God Bless. Stay classy sir.
Really appreciate that my friend.
Nov 11, 2022 13:54:09
Love your insight regardless of whether or not i like your side. It's valuable insight every time, which allows for a much broader 40K ft view whereby we can apply said insight. Real reason for my comment is to say thank you for the Remembrance Day post. Stay classy sir.
Nov 10, 2022 10:40:04
almost as good as cashing on Bellarmine at +310 last night. Is watching it on the "stick" down here in Mazatlan, Mexico. Thanks Brian for all your hard work and "my stick"!!!
Mr Hallmark
Nov 10, 2022 06:51:22
Beauty call on Bellarmine last night. I noticed 365 took the game off the board so I had to bet it at Pinny. Is it just me or is it extra nice to cash in those +300 or more tickets? Thanks for all you do Brian!
Thanks RV. Actually, I don't think BET365 took it off the board. It was listed in "NCAAB extra games". For reference, if you don't see it on the main board, go to that section just under the NCAAB section.
Nov 4, 2022 18:03:49
Hey Sherwood. Long time reader and very much appreciate of your work. How is anyone gambling in Ontario? Been trying for 5 days to get reset up at Bet99. What a colossal sh*t storm.
Matthew Cronin
Hi Matt. Thanks for the kind words my friend. The better question, however, is why would you be opening an account at that shithole, Bet99???!! Use Bet365.
Nov 2, 2022 19:01:23
Loved your call on the Ohio Bobcats last night but it takes balls of steel to try and win on a MAC bet two nights in a row! Go Chippewas!!!
Oct 30, 2022 01:11:48
You should have your head examined for picking Stanford. Rarely have I seen a team so incompetent in every phase of the game. They can?t block, they can?t tackle. They?re slow, out of position on nearly every defensive play. They take bad angles and don?t wrap up runners when they finally get there. The end zone is alien territory. When I write this the game is in the 4th q and Stanford has barely 100 yards of total offense. This team would have to improve to be total crap.
Marvin G
Good call after the game is over. I could give you 45 winners a day after the final scores are in.
Oct 28, 2022 12:45:40
Bye bye Pinnacle ! Its been fun ! Wish you could have a more reliable Geolocator system as it looks to me like you will lose a good number of clients who should be allowed to remain client of yours.
Oct 27, 2022 09:21:39
Now pinnacle says they cannot fully read my identification. I sent a clear scan of my Passport, Drivers License and Bank Statement. I cannot make the scans any more clear. I tried using my SIA account but ran into the same GeoLocate issues. I guess this is the end of a 10+ year hobby of sports betting. And I ask myself again why I continue to live and pay taxes in Ontario.
Douglas Thompson
Email me directly at and I'll help you out.
Oct 26, 2022 17:50:56
This new verification procedure for Pinnacle is a pain in the ass. I live very close to the US border on the Niagara River (closest house to the river on the Niagara Pkwy). The Geolocator thinks I am in Buffalo sometimes. [I went through this with my cell phone 5 years ago]. Trying to keep my frustration from blowing over.
Douglas Thompson
Oct 25, 2022 12:41:42
MIN@MTL: MTL +184 @ Pinnacle. Somebody want to tell me how the Wild on the road with Fleury in net are such huge favourites in this game? Huge overreaction to MTL losing 5-2 to Dallas the other night. Look the Habs aren't anything special but they don't deserve to be such a massive dog at home to a team like the Wild. The craziest thing is the Wild are starting goalie who is 37 soon to be 38, who has a 5.25 GAA, and a .848 Save% through 4 starts...Absolutely ridiculous. Give me Jake Allen and the Habs at home any night over the Wild in this scenario.
Oct 10, 2022 14:40:47
" Sorry Canada, it's only business". Oakland Raiders. Lmao love reading your stuff. Cracks me up, I still call the Chargers San Diego. Besides being amused, good work
Oct 1, 2022 09:17:24
Sherwood, Been reading your write-ups for years and just simply wanted to say thanks for the time and dedication you put in to sharing your insights with everyone and without asking for any money in return. That says a lot about you as a person sir. Thanks again. And btw, great call on UCLA over the Huskies yesterday. A lot of my buddies were thinking at -2.5 that was a slam dunk for UWash except me of course who warned them about it being a sucker?s bet. You da man Sherwood!
Sarb Thanks for the support, kind words and taking the time to send a positive message. I truly appreciate it.
Sep 30, 2022 09:01:39
Have you considered adding soccer to your portfolio. I do well by it but would like a good handicapping site. Because it is a ball possession game - FAVs seem to have higher winning %. I dont have data to back this up but seems the way. Its hard to win when you dont have the ball. I would appreciate a good handicapping site though.
I do not follow soccer so therefore cannot write up about something I know nothing of. However, I am open to proividing soccer picks so if anyone is reading this that follows it and has good knowledge of handicapping theories and strategies, I am open to it.
Sep 17, 2022 11:07:46
Not sure if you will see this before the game kicks off this evening, but I am mystified how Iowa can be a 23.5 point favorite over Nevada. Iowa is dead last in FBS offense, and it isn't even close. They've scored exactly 14 points in two games, one of which was against an FCS school. I could easily see Iowa winning, but to cover 23.5 they have to score 24 and I can't see them doing that.
Sep 15, 2022 19:49:05
I check out as part of my daily routine and thank you for all your efforts. I still marvel at the content you?ve produced, on a daily basis, for so many years. I learn a lot from you. For example your Tampa Bay writeup today. After I read your analysis I checked out the numbers and you were spot on. I immediately took the Rays 1st five. Rocking chair win. Just the way we like it. Thank you sir. Regards and continued success, Mark
Sep 15, 2022 19:48:43
I check out as part of my daily routine and thank you for all your efforts. I still marvel at the content you?ve produced, on a daily basis, for so many years. I learn a lot from you. For example your Tampa Bay writeup today. After I read your analysis I checked out the numbers and you were spot on. I immediately took the Rays 1st five. Rocking chair win. Just the way we like it. Thank you sir. Regards and continued success, Mark
Sep 10, 2022 15:06:29
Name: Hey Sherwood, appreciate you are back with your delicious write-ups, and definitely appreciative of your introduction to week 1 - getting something to mull on over Friday morning coffee is definitely cool, and we understand that these are early leans ... cheers to another season
Thanks so much. Greatly appreciate the support
Sep 10, 2022 15:06:09
Name: Hey Sherwood, appreciate you are back with your delicious write-ups, and definitely appreciative of your introduction to week 1 - getting something to mull on over Friday morning coffee is definitely cool, and we understand that these are early leans ... cheers to another season
Thanks Wilco
Aug 17, 2022 13:16:37
Hi Sherwood, thanks as always for the work involved in your write ups. I have a questions regarding MLB and your lean to pitchers high xERA such as Cal Quantrill. I have to admit I need to do more research into this stat but does xERA take into account a team’s defensive ratings? I understand BABIP and less swing and miss rate can result in more danger chances/ balls in play. I also believe Cleveland has one of the better defensive groups which may impact the amount of balls in play? Stephen Kwan leads all left fielders this year in total fielding runs saved and has become the frontrunner for his first Gold Glove award. Is this because he is fielding behind pitchers like Quantrill or an above average defensive left fielder. In addition, Cleveland let go of Franmil Reyes to allow for more defensive outfielders. Would Detroit have a better chance if Cal Quantrill played for another team with a weaker defensive outfield rating? Again I don’t know if all this matters, just adding my thoughts to always help improve strategy. Appreciate the dedication you spend on your craft and I enjoy reading all of your write ups.
Hi Scott. Thanks for taking the time to send a positive message. Your question is a good one. xERA is not flawless. It does not take into account defensive ratings, nor does it take into account park factors. For instance, if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, xERA would not recognize it. There are hitters parks and pitcher parks so one has to incorporate that into their research. Baseball has a plethora of possible variances. Analytics helps break it down better but it doesn't account for everything. A base hit for example in the 8th inning with your team down 8-1 means nothing compared to a base-hit with the score tied 2-2 and a man on second in the eighth innings. Your point is 100% valid but it would not deter me from attacking a pitcher that is favored like Quantrill was last night. Keep grinding my friend.
Aug 13, 2022 05:43:28
Hey, curious about your thoughts on Fernando Tatis Jr. suspension and san diegos odds to win it all. Let me preface this by saying before the trade deadline, they were roughly +1600-1800 ( I think?) to win the world series. I picked them up after the soto trade +1100 (late, but I still liked the value and it was an extremely small wager.) They're back up to +1800. About Tatis - guys of this value in any pro sport are routinely rushed back into service by Dr.s on the payroll of the team. Not to mention he's taking a banned substance that's extremely well known. Really makes you wonder if Tatis disagreed with docs and guys at the top that he was ready to go and this was his way of saying, "I'm not ready. Disagree? Fuck you - I got my contract - see ya in 10 months!" Curious if you'd still make that futures bet - and if you think my thoughts of Tatis' treatment have any truth? And can we get anything on mlb futures late season? Or do you just not see as much value in that? Thanks as usual. Miss the live betting segments. Do a fuckin podcast about mlb or football. nba. idc. something every month. Come on now. Ask Matt to set you up.
There certainly could be some truth to Tatis' situation. He had to of known he was taking a big risk but like you say, he may have wanted a long break. I would still make that bet. The Dodgers almost look inpossible to beat but in a 7-game series, anything is possible. Padres are still loaded. BJ, we are 100% getting back to live betting, as soon as the summer is over at least once a week. Looking forward to seeing you!
Aug 10, 2022 21:00:44
Long time listener, not first time caller. MLB betting is so much harder then in the old days. Back in the day, starters would go go 7to 8 innings, mangers played the odds, not computer front office print outs. Personally, I only bet the AL EAST and only games live, because following all teams, too much. I read this site daily and take note if AL EAST teams are written up. Thanks Sherwood
Aug 10, 2022 16:45:22
Brian.. re…MJ s comments..I enjoyed & Agree with your reply to him period..To me MLB is the hardest sport to bet on . I do ok with positive results only in NHL & NBA full season betting & not the playoffs. Re how I do it !..Single money line bets & the odd 2 team maximum money line parlay…I never bet during the playoffs in NHL/NBA.. The odd time I just try and use my intuition..Brian keep up the good work. Best Wishes. Your Silent Follower..
Mr. Baxter
Mr. B! How the f**K are you!?!?!?! Always good to hear from you. Hope you're doing well my friend. Like always, you make good points. Stay well, stay safe and stay in touch.
Aug 10, 2022 16:13:06
You say feel free to comment so here goes thanks! Great dialogue MJ and Sherwood. You encourage transparency on this site, which is why you have so many followers I'm sure. Also it's why it gives you great credibility if this is real cash being played on these real games - and your record is public! On MLB in particular if your records are correct, which I trust they are, then as of yesterday's loss you are exactly dead even on Units from 2004 to end of yesterday!!! That just highlights what a grind it can be to put hours and hours of work in for net ZERO gain over 18 years sample size! Don't do this to make money better be entertainment for you since we all know Sportsbooks and now online sites weren't created to hand out cash! Keep up the efforts dig out some good nuggets now and then with your research - on varying sports. I also feel you're pushing it with MLB though...the game has changed so much, to win consistent you really have to pick your spots. No different than all the other sports really?!? Thanks for listening.
Thanks for adding more to the conversation sir. My records are indeed accurate but more important is strategies we are trying to convey, I am trying my best to give folks the right strategy, I just happen to be picking the wrong games but if you continue to use the strategies we employ, your chances of success are great. Peace and thanks again
Aug 10, 2022 14:40:33
As a long time follower I scratch my head trying to understand why you continue to pound your head against a wall betting on baseball with the same strategy? It’s clearly obvious that you are a losing bettor in baseball with the amount of data compiled over the past 5 years, and it’s no longer something you can chalk up to variance/bad bounces. So I’m struggling to figure out why? Other sports like NBA for example, you have realized this and meaningfully cut back on it, opting to rightfully focus on sports you are profitable in (NFL, NCAAF, etc.) and have had success. It’s ok to be specialized! Is it an addiction type thing where you constantly need to have action satisfy gambling urges with MLB basically the only game in town the majority of the year when it’s played?
MJ, with all due respect, I do not continue to pound my head. I find value and play it and sometimes it wins and sometimes it does not. Baseball is baseball and underdogs are the way to go so call me stubborn or call me whatever you like but I will continue to attack these overpriced starters and teams and hopefully it will turn around. Do I chalk it up to variance, bad luck, etc? Damn straight I do. Let's see what happens over the next 20 years. Thanks for writing my friend and for reading.
Aug 4, 2022 11:33:05
Just wanted to say, wow. What a beautiful write up of Vin Scully. Thank you for sharing.
Thanks Scott
Aug 3, 2022 22:43:32
I have been following and reading the write ups on This site since its inception. I don’t even know how long that is But what I do know is The write up On Vin Scully is the best Thing I have ever read on here . Its incredible and so well done. I first discovered baseball watching the 86 world series mets Red sox and it was Scully and Joe. Thank you again for all your Hard work and the beautiful tribute
I appreciate that CG. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Jul 24, 2022 11:45:29
I was all set to put down some cash on the Argos given the covid and injury situation of the Roughriders when I chuckled to myself and thought" I bet Sherman will go the other way on this one!". Clicked on and immediately saw SASKATCHEWAN over TORONTO!!! Now I don't know what the hell to do!!!
LOL, I hope you make the right call Sean! Cheers brother!
Jul 19, 2022 23:32:41
hello brian bet 2 units in british open on a player to make the cut. which he did. they called it a deadheat return 1.76 units lost money. they said 83 players made it instead of 70. never new this rule existed.
That's really odd. It's bullshit. He made the cut, you should be paid but I don't know what the rules are.
Jul 18, 2022 11:46:17
All I can say is "What have you done for me lately?" Great way to go into the all - star break. Always enjoy your picks and analysis!!!
Mr Hallmark are the best Mr. Hallmark! Enjoy the break. It's always great hearing from you! Thanks for the mkind words!
Jul 7, 2022 14:33:12
Loving your KC pick and analysis. If KC was priced +200, Ok fine but +290? Absolutely ridiculous. I thought I would add my pick of the day today. MIA@NYM: MIA +150 ML. These Marlins are a very underrated team IMO and have a good shot of winning here. Trevor Williams is nothing special and there’s value on the Marlins here at +150. Keep up the good work and thank you for all you do!
Jul 4, 2022 02:33:14
Outstanding MLB Trifecta you picked yesterday Woody!! I shadowed your banger plays along with the Astros -1.5 & Red Sox -1.5 for a hefty payout at the sportsbook. Thanks for all the research and work you put in each and every day Woody!! It's nice to see you get treated with some nice wins. :-)
Thanks my friend. Really appreciate the time you took to write and the kind words. It's a grind for sure and we're thrilled you cashed a big ticket.
Jul 2, 2022 10:19:05
NYY@CLE Game 1: Over 8.5 +100 @ Bet365. Talk about a pitching mismatch. Cole vs McCarty. McCarty will be lucky to last 3 innings against this potent NYY lineup. This is a bullpen game for the Tribe. I look for the Yankees to run up the board here today.
Jun 25, 2022 15:41:07
Hey Sherwood, hope you are well. I'm sad that you aren't doing your full card UFC writeups anymore. I'm sure you have a decent reason, but I wanted you to know that I miss them; otherwise keep up the great consistent work my friend.
Appreciate that Chris. It was a lot of work and we decided to put our time and effort elsewhere but we may pick it up again.
Jun 8, 2022 18:41:07
Hi Brian Nice no bet on the Rangers last game out. I thought you would have a bet on them but you laid off. Any chance you can explain why you didn’t come back on them, as I am trying to get a better understanding of the psychology of it all. Thanks, BTW, you do a great job on analyzing games. Keep it up.
Stuart Schulman
Hi Stu Great question. I was very tempted to come back on the Rangers but I didn’t like that they had TB down 2-0 in Game 3 and had the opportunity to put them away. The Rangers had their foot on their proverbial necks of the Bolts and let them slip away. Had the Rangers been trailing that game instead of being up 2-0 with a chance to bury them, then we probably would have come back on them in Game 5. Instead, they couldn’t put away a champion when they had the opportunity to. They gave the Bolts new life and it’s for that reason that we didn’t trust the Rags to shake it off and come back with a strong effort.
Jun 7, 2022 20:45:08
I bet games the way you do. But I notice younger players just prop betting, small wagers parlay style. I find this interesting, yet not sure about value. I have bet single player props on teams I follow. What is your opinion on propswpfz
Jun 7, 2022 09:34:32
Hey sherwood Tough break with the Reds last night. I had ‘em too at -1½ +160. Shame. Regardless, your info is top notch. Nowhere on the internet can one find the info and analysis that you provide for free. Keep up the great work. Your Colorado Cup win now holds great value. Peace out brother.
Thanks Fergie. Appreciate the time you took to send this message.
May 28, 2022 15:18:14
Hey Sherwood, quick question in terms of bankroll management. Im up in one of my books but the other one I'm down about 25%. I'm still betting 2 units per game but I round it to the closest 100. Would you suggest to just keep this going this or to top up the 25%?
Hi Joe You should top up the 25%
May 23, 2022 08:51:13
Hi Sherwood, been a loyal follower for over 12 years and have to say that I have never in my life seen anyone have more bad beats than you. From that $500,000 proline ticket you got robbed in to yesterday’s PGA championship to 1000’s of games being lost in the final inning or minute, it’s not believable. Your selections are so good that you have to be extremely unlucky to lose while most others have to be extremely lucky to win. If things ever change, you’re owed about 10,000 units over the years and that might be conservative. Anyway, thanks for making me a smarter gambler.
Steve Z
Thanks.....I guess.
May 22, 2022 20:38:26
Hello Brian, I wanted to say thanks for your daily picks and resources. You truly have made me a sharper bettor with your analysis. I was wondering what your views are about specific sports when it comes to betting. It seems the books are sharper with NFL than say NHL. Are the sports which are less popular by nature provide more value for the average bettor?
Big Fan
Thanks for the kind words. The best value is in college basketball and college football. There are so many teams that it is virtually inmpossible for the books to be sharp on all games. They are sharp with lines in college when Power-5 conferences are involved but once you get to these lower-tiered conferences, there's great value to be had. In summarizing, study teams (conferences) that get very little media exposure. Teams like Grambling, Norfolk St and dozens of others for example.
May 22, 2022 19:07:13
Absolute heart breaker for Mito. 71 good holes and he chokes it away on the 72nd. I feel sick.
I feel sick too.
May 22, 2022 11:40:58
Obviously a great job with Mito and Fitzpatrick in the PGA so far. I have $ on each with Bet365 to win outright so cash outs are available. You do a great job with ideas/education here so what are your thoughts for each of these plays? Fun stuff! Thanks for your digging deep, on Mito especially!!!
Big supporter
Since we are getting 175-1 and already have Fitz, we can hedge with Zalotoris (4-1) and Cameron Young (9-1). I bet 100 to win 900 on Young. I also bet 200 to win 800 on Zal. I don't think anyone else has much of a chance because the course plays so tough and they have to leapfrog too many to get there, plus they are 6 strokes back to begin. One can also monitor LIVE and should it get closer, you can always bet the dude in second to win even if it's even money. With 175-1 and leading by 3, we have to walk away with something today. Best of luck and thanks for the support. Let's do this!
May 20, 2022 18:57:26
Great call on Mito P! You are the best at finding diamonds in the rough. I follow the tour and hadn’t ever considered him as a possible wager. 36 holes down, 36 to go. Let’s do this!
Appreciate it Joel. Let's do this!
May 10, 2022 15:51:05
Hey Sherwood, I noticed you don’t have Pinnacle on your site anymore. Would you still say they’re a good book? I’m using them, SI & Bet365. I find that pinnacle has the fastest payouts. Thank You.
The licensed books in Canada requested I remove all unlicensed sportsbooks (in Onatario) from my site, as they do not want to "align" themselves with unlicensed sportsbooks. Pinnacle is still very good.
May 3, 2022 06:44:37
Well, I was wrong and you were correct Brian. That was a hell of a performance by the Maple Leafs last night. Kudos on your pick.
Leafs played very well or Bolts were flat but it's just one game sir. We'll see how it plays out. Best of luck the rest of the way SB
May 2, 2022 18:29:51
I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with your Leafs/Bolts pick. This Bolts team knows what it takes to win in the playoffs and turns it up come crunch time. The Maple Leafs are a regular season team. Period. Have we forgotten the collapse a mere year ago against the Habs? Where were Matthews and Marner? Have the Leafs improved on paper? I would agree with you that they have but to have them at -1.5 over the best goalie in the league? I don't see the value there. Tampa Bay Moneyline +110
May 1, 2022 17:27:02
How many times is that so far in this young MLB season that we have gotten screwed over in the 9th inning? Jesus Christ Angels...
Apr 30, 2022 03:32:39
Congrats on an awesome night on your NHL picks. Would have been very good regardless, but Arizona coming back from down 4-0 less than 10 minutes into the game to win 5-4 in regulation has to be one of the most impressive NHL comebacks in quite some time. Thanks for your hard work.
Thanks RS. Been a long time coming.
Apr 29, 2022 21:00:43
Just got home and although the nhl games have started, don't know the scores yet, lol, I love your picks! I am to late for the east games, but going in with you on west coast games. DAMN I just saw Habs score, way to go! DAMN I missed it
It was a profitable night.
Apr 27, 2022 15:17:39
Just thought I would add my two cents for NHL tonight. ARZ@DAL Over 6.0 goals. Harri Sateri in net for Arizona with a 5.88 GAA and .822 Sv%. Dallas can clinch tonight at home and eliminate Vegas. Bet365 has this for +100.
Apr 23, 2022 16:53:03
You were robbed on that Cleveland game, like your Celtics and Habs pick tonight, best of luck Think I will parlay the two. If St Louis cannot get them up for this game.....
I seem to get robbed a lot. Books got away with putting up that stupid line on Yanks. So sick.
Apr 23, 2022 16:10:49
Gotta love in game variance. I had the devils on the ML and the Indians against the yanks. Could have easily been 2-0 but turned out 0-2. Sure the favourites won but they didn’t win convincingly. Just another reason you’ll get killed betting sports if you’re laying juice. IN. GAME. VARIANCE.
Apr 19, 2022 18:10:39
I believe that this past weekend including Friday, the favourites went 22-0 in hockey so keeping away for now is a good thing. Keep up the good work Sherwood
Apr 9, 2022 10:31:01
Sherwood I took all your bets yesterday @ +1.5.... went 3/4 Why don’t you take +1.5 is that a losing strategy long term ? Worked last night
I wouldn't take +1.5 and spot juice if the game was final. It's horrible strategy and a big losing one. Abort my friend.
Mar 26, 2022 10:46:57
Was wondering if you would know once draftkings ontario and fanduel ontario take over on april 4th with their sportsbook. Will they still allow ontarians to do daily fantasy as im hearing that option will be fazed out? Keep up the great work. Lookijg forward to MLB season
No more Fantasy. Not sure why but it is rather absurd. Thanks Will.
Mar 20, 2022 12:20:58
Don't know if it changes anything for you, but the Isles will likely be using their top goaltender today. Varlamov played yesterday against Dallas, so likely Sorokin today. Regards, Brent
Mar 18, 2022 18:07:29
Hi Brian. Still an avid follower and continue to appreciate all that you do. I understand that your readers want as many plays as you can muster for March Madness. It is one of the premium sports betting events in the world. For over 20 years I approached the tournament with a lot of enthusiasm and would place a high volume of wagers on the opening weekend. And I would often lose. Very often. A few years back I decided to focus more on the Conference tournaments and have found much more success at that than I ever have had with the Madness. I have concluded that because of the nature of Conference play and the commonality of opponents throughout the season, the games played a week ahead of the NCAA tournament are much easier to handicap. Not as fun to bet on and watch of course, but at the end of the day it really should be all about winning. Good luck the rest of the way!
Mar 18, 2022 14:03:11
Yes thank you for all the info and picks, always a pleasure.....
Mar 18, 2022 10:21:53
Its refreshing to see someone whos so dedicated to giving us his best work daily and for free. In this day in age where everyone is charging money for picks to see you doing this without charging says something about your integrity. Keep up the great insight and picks. Your time/work is very much appreciated.
Will, I really sppreciate the kind words and support. Thanks for taking the time to send such a positive message. Best of luck, friend!
Mar 14, 2022 12:35:07
Sherwood Congratulations on your recent run of success. I used to spend time researching various games but over the last couple of years I just wager on your picks. I am just a $50 or $100 better but it has been profitable. I enjoy having action each day and it is nice not to have to spend time pondering a few picks. Just much easier to follow the Master. Thank you for your sage and thoughtful research.
I really appreciate the kind words and the support Bob. Continued success to you! It is positive messages like yours that keeps us motivated. Peace brother.
Mar 14, 2022 10:27:11
Hi Sherwood… I have an account at Coolbet and they suspended my account. They want me to send them documents showing where my income Is coming from. You ever heard of this? No way I’m sending them bank statements
Wow. That's interesting. I'm with you David. They either want the action or not. I wouldn't send them anything either. I don't know anything about how you are betting or if they suspect something odd is going on, like laundering, for example. I am not assuming anything but something alerted them to your account. I would be inteested to know how it turns out. I have not heard of something like this before. Best of luck my friend!
Mar 6, 2022 12:39:45
Longwood must have been looking past their previous opponents to this matchup. Those kinds of intangibles are difficult to account for, and I can see how you overlooked that possibility. They are bringing it today. Winners win. For the record, I did fully agree with your handicapping of that contest.
Chris G.
Last time I checked, although I'm not sure, is that there are two halves in college basketball, I may be wrong. Also, teams get hot and teams get cold. It happens. Samford was up 42-22 on Greensboro after the 1st half yesterday and hung on to win by 2. Winners win? What the fuck does that mean? I would really appreciate you sending me an email explaining what winners win mean.
Mar 5, 2022 19:31:21
Hey Sherwood, been using your amazing live wagering tips the last couple days, been having REALLY good days with free rolls and cheering on underdogs. Whats just wondering how do you decide when you take the live dog during live betting on the ML or take the pts. Do you take the ML only when the spread is +5 or less? Or is it more of an instinct thing? Thanks again and cant wait to join the next live wager stream.
It's more of an instinct thing and it's something we'll address at the next live event. Thanks for taking the time to send a message LB Continued success
Feb 28, 2022 09:43:00
Nice to see you back with NHL. Canucks pick worked out well. With no baseball this year be nice to see more on golf. Appreciate all your time. Thank you
Bob L.
Thanks Bob. No baseball means PGA events for sure will be covered. Thanks for tbe encouraging workds my friend.
Feb 25, 2022 21:48:33
Been a long time follower… are you against first half wagers? I haven’t double checked but it strongly feels that almost all of the recent losses in the past two weeks, were solid wins after the first half. What the hell is going on for all these dogs to be up on the first half and get buried the second half. If all first half bets, may be 90+ %.
Bill S
Feb 25, 2022 13:40:53 that you take the time to do write-ups for anything you see value on. I've been following and reading your posts for YEARS (I've even commented a time or two on your site) and have found your insight esp with NCAA (football and bball) to be extremely helpful so thank you and keep it up. My 2 cents on NCAA bball...while I don't have the numbers, it seems that home court is quite the advantage even with "underdogs." I find that home teams tend to win a fair bit more than away teams even in situations where the road team is ranked...there's a good chance for a home upset. Do you have numbers or stats on that? Cheers
Feb 21, 2022 12:27:34
Nice sweep yesterday! Best of luck this week. I know you've been reluctant to post NHL picks due to the terrible run of bad luck you had last year, and I don't at all blame you. Maybe I speak for myself on this but for the past 12 years you have been my main and really only reliable source of any kind of decent hockey insight when it comes to betting on hockey. Even if you retire from NHL betting, I still think you should post leans or at least make some sort of picks and state you no longer bet on it or whatever. I'm willing to bet you have a very strong NHL betting fan base because you were quite simply the best at it. The write ups were fantastic. And even despite the bad record last year, I and I'm sure others appreciated it very much. Cheers and best of luck in 2021
Eric. Thanks for the kind and encouraging words. NHL is 100% on our radar and we will be posting picks again this year starting again shortly. Appreciate it my friend.
Feb 5, 2022 19:04:23
I am wondering why you stay away from the NBA, I have noticed that when you do make a selection that your usually right on, just curious. Studying the NCAA seems so daunting, must take so much of your time. Its appreciated, like a lot of your followers, but dont know how you do it. Except dave, please share if that idiot sends messages, we need laughs in these times
Appreciate it Tom. NBA we like to play LIVE but moving forward, perhaps we'll try and focus on more games. As for the second part of your comment/question, trolls are not worth the time of day. Peace Brother!
Feb 5, 2022 16:02:25
I have been a loyal follower and advid reader of this site for close to a decade. I LOVE the UFC writeup of the full card. I know this isn't exactly the 'stick with the value' ideology when we are volume betting on every fight of a card, but let's be honest, you are allowed to have fun once in awhile, and what you have posted is an absolute blast. Great writeup, hope you hit at least the 35ish% required to turn a profit, and obviously anything after that is pure gravy.
Thanks so much sir. Appreciate the support greatly. We are going to try and make UFC full card selections a weekly feature until NFL starts up again in September.
Feb 2, 2022 11:27:49
Sherwood first off, I want to mention I LOVE your threads. Its a must read EVERY day for me. I dont always make your plays, but one thing that worked for me on the bets Ive laid off, Ill take a look at that teams matchup next game and see if it applies. Worked really well for me in MLB when you give out their xERAs. In any case, I wanted to give a little feedback and criticism. Please dont take it the wrong way as I mentioned love your content. My criticism is sometimes youll look to make a play bc its not what market perception is. Ive seen you do it in the past and you KIND of did it last night with Riverside. What you do is you mention the public perception would like XXX team bc they have a better record and getting points against the better team with the worse record. Basically fading the public. Problem is you are typically doing it with mid major teams. Oddsmakers arent typically bating the public on a Monday thru Thursday, non televised mid market team. On the contrary, you have done this on weekends (despite it being on tv) and it works out. I use to work in a sports book (very small one in reno) and because many go to the sportsbooks on weekends oddsmakers will do that bc we use to supply ATS spreadsheets which show onesided teams. Weekdays arent typically fade public plays unless televised. Just wanted to point this out bc I love your writeups and hopefully it helps weed out weaker plays and focus on stronger plays. Keep up the good work. APpreciate the time you put into this.
Rom Juan
Rom, thanks so much for taking the time to send this. I truly appreciate the insight. You make some great points, which I will incorporate into our handicapping process. Appreciate the kind words and also appreciate the wisdom and experience you shared. Stay in touch and thanks very much.
Feb 1, 2022 18:14:14
I'm surprised that you seem to be taking a position contrary to Pinnacle which has both contests listed at -5 tonight. Not sure whether that is an indication that you feel extra confident in these games that you are willing to fade Pinnacle or if you are making an unforced error this evening by wagering on what appears to be a bad line. Or am I making too much of a fuss about a half-point?
Cal Riverside opened at -6½ at some places and -6 at others. Same with NW. Pinnacle included. The money coming forced the price down on both games. Thanks for writing before the game starts Joel and best of luck!
Jan 30, 2022 08:41:11
Hey Sherwood - love the content man, thanks for all you do! Have you all thought about bringing the podcast back? I may have missed a posting about it, but really enjoyed listening back in the day. Thanks again for the write ups fellas!
Thanks Aaron. We appreciate trhe inquiry into bringing back the podcasts and will definitely consider doing so. We;ll keep you posted. Thanks for taking the time to send a message!!
Jan 29, 2022 11:14:42
Your site graded Nebraska +7.5 as a W, but it was a L.
Jan 23, 2022 16:23:49
Sherwood, don't hold back, tell dave what you really feel! Sorry but I enjoyed that, LOL
Tom, you would enjoy it even more if you knew what a fucking idiot we're dealing with here. A brainless fucking idiot of the highest order. It's amusing.
Jan 23, 2022 10:13:37
trust me SAN FRAN was NOT +333 ,please BRIAN. jerk
Let me explain something to you, you fucking idiot. The bet was 1 unit on San Francisco +233 and one unit on San Francisco +5½. So instead of living in your mother's basement, maybe you should learn to do some math. 233 + 1 unit is 3.33 units. The only loser here is you. Fucking idiot. Fucking troll. Only a fucking idiot, low life, piece of shit, coachroach would spend as much time as you do trolling and wishing ill will on so many people. Fucking idiot. Truly, the biggest moron I have ever encountered and it's not even close.
Jan 20, 2022 09:03:33
Incredible picks on Bradley, Boston U & Rutgers last night Sherwood. Rider was just as good but we all got robbed in that one. It is precisely because of picks like last night that thousands read you daily. You are a must read for all bettors.
Thanks Lee. Appreciate the time you took to write. Best of luck, always.
Jan 19, 2022 16:19:23
Hey Sherwood: Just wanted to send you a note to thank you for all the hard work over the years. I won my NFL handicapping pool this year because of your great selections. In fact, I utilize your strategies and philosophies in all sports and it has been pure gold for well over a decade. I owe you a debt of gratitude for not only the education on sports betting but for keeping it free so we can all learn from a true expert. Thanks a million pal. Appreciate you more than you know.
Jake, thanks so much for taking the time to send such a postiive message. I appreciate it greatly. It's people like you that keeps us motivated. Thanks again and continued success!
Jan 18, 2022 17:50:19
Love your NW vs Wisconsin NCAAB pick. Whatever happens; your analysis is correct! Keep up the great work as always Sherwood!
Chris Donnelly
Thanks Chris. Let's get it!
Jan 1, 2022 19:04:10
Happy New Years Long time follower thanks for all your insight are you gonna go back to nhl picks sometime soon always liked your writeups and your approach for seeking out value
Jan 1, 2022 09:18:48
A modest losing season is a small price to pay for wisdom and knowledge gained from your analysis of the games. Thank you for all of it and God bless. James Hanna
James Hanna
Appreciate the kind words very much James.
Dec 31, 2021 19:00:25
Best Wishes for a healthy & profitable new year in 2022 Your Silent Follower
Mr Baxter
Thanks Mr. B. Always good to hear from you!
Dec 26, 2021 15:18:26
That writeup about the Bears/Seachickens is fucking hilarous, omfg. Quit wasting time on sports shit and start writing comedy for tv
Thanks Tom
Dec 25, 2021 12:40:53
Brian just wanted to take a minute to wish you and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas!!Thank you for all your hard work and good information...blessings
Ed v
Appreciate that very much Ed.
Dec 25, 2021 12:18:46
Is it wrong that I was more excited to Sherwoods pics today than what my wife bought me for Christmas!? Thanks Always !
LOL, thanks so much my friend. Happy holidays!
Dec 23, 2021 16:06:07
Game has already started and Miami of Ohio is up 10-7, but i gotta say I loved your breakdown of this game! Nice 4-0 yesterday, I just KNOW yer gonna make back in the black by December 31!!!! Merry Xmas Sherwood!!!
Dec 23, 2021 12:10:15
Boys nice clean sweep last night. I cashed on all of them. Continued great success into the new year! Happy holidays. Thanks for all the hard work.
Dec 14, 2021 17:04:05
Sherwood You continue to crush it! Monday night Rams and Cleveland St picks were rock solid picks and Cleveland St almost pulled off the upset for the ML cash. I will never pay for picks again....ever
Dec 13, 2021 19:54:08
$$$$$$$$$$$$...19 days to win more than 30.24 units to finish in the black got this!!!....let's make some money over the holidays!!!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$
Dec 13, 2021 15:10:11
Congratulations Woody!! You had an outstanding selection of NFL picks this Week 14. In fact, other than the Jets & Bears games you almost ran the table. Incredible!! Myself, I tailed a few of of your picks and am now awaiting the result of tonight's Cards/Rams game to cash in my various parlay outcomes. GO CARDINALS -2.5 !!!
Thanks man
Dec 11, 2021 08:35:36
Took your advice on Fri with the Milwaukee/Colorado game .Great analysis plus I got Mil at 15.5 Thank you sir!
Bob Hand
Great to hear Bob
Dec 7, 2021 12:25:36
Sherwood, great job on Monday night write-ups and analysis. You were spot ON with each. Get out the broom. I really appreciate the in depth analysis and your approach.
Jay S
Nov 27, 2021 11:50:49
Always enjoy your well thought out picks and detailed analysis, but an Iowa loss would not have guaranteed a Wisconsin trip to the Big 10 Championship. According to a a USA today article that I assume is correct, if Wisconsin and Iowa both lose, the Badgers would still need IU to beat Purdue to go to the Big 10 title game. If Purdue wins vs IU, Minnesota would have gone to the Championship had Iowa lost. Since Purdue is a 2 TD favorite at home, it's likely Iowa's win turned this game from a must win game for both teams into a must win game for Wisconsin only. I have two girls at Wisconsin and follow the team closely. I'm very surprised at their turnaround after a 1-3 start, but Minnesota has a solid run defense, and if they can hold the Badgers in check in the running game, I don't think Mertz and the offense will put up many points. Last weeks defensive performance from the Badgers was their worst all year as Nebraska moved the ball with ease on them all game. Badgers are a good defense, but their stats are enhanced by having played a lot of weak offensive teams. Wouldn't be surprised to see Minnesota put up points and yards if Morgan can make some throws. I'm rooting hard for a Badgers win, but think Minnesota keeps it within the number and had a solid chance to win the game. Badgers had covered every game on their win streak until last week against Nebraska, but without a kickoff return TD and to interceptions, Badgers likely would have lost to Nebraska. Good luck today, and thanks for all your hard work analyzing these games.
Nov 22, 2021 15:04:25
I like many of your writeups (especially the BC Lions one last week was maybe the easiest in months). That being said.. Pens to win in regulation looking at the Jets 4 games you mentioned against the Oilers, Wild and Blues they won or went to OT/shootouts. Just think the Pens straight up giving SId and company if it goes to OT a better chance to cash. We shall see, thanks for your free writeups!
R Law
Nov 20, 2021 08:58:52
Hey Sherwood I read your page everyday and must say your BC Lions pick -5 which jumped to -6.5 overnight was a genius pick and made total sense. I placed several bets at -6, -6.5 and -7 and once the game started you could tell BC came to play and Edmonton mailed it in so that was worth several live bets. Nathan Rourke had a ton of family members in the stands and was determined to put on a show and that he did. Two CFL teams not making the playoffs would have slipped past me if not for your write up so I do thank you for being so detailed and making it a 5k night for me. Best capper out there!!!
Larry Smart
Nov 18, 2021 08:13:58
Why is the CFL even allowing this game to be played given the Elks schedule? If I was a player I would be completely pissed and mail it in, which is what you are predicting. Any thoughts on the total? BC in a rout or an ugly low scoring affair possibly a shut out? Too risky to guess the mindset on a total, side is easy.
Raptors Devotee
Let's hope side is easy.
Nov 14, 2021 19:52:21
And D.G. while our friend Sherwood may preach value, any capper will step in and take a win. This site is fantastic and free, I must say again FREE When people come on and rip the man, I find that offensive You can go to and pay a tout 25 dollars for garbage. I dont always agree with Sherwood but I find his analysis deep and thought out. He has saved me a bundle over the last 15 years. Again, this site is free, no charge, no tax, no tip. I guess people like to complain...
Appreciate that Tom
Nov 13, 2021 06:55:24
Hey Sherwood, not sure if you realized, but OVI was looking to break a record taking brett hulls position for 4th in NHL goals. That's a huge fucking milestone, and while I totally back your reasoning for going against washington (getting outplayed at almost every opportunity) perhaps this is something that may have been overlooked? I don't see how considering that it's basically been broadcasted constantly for almost 2 weeks. Considering the value, the score and stats, jackets seem like the obvious pick. Washington was out-performed once again (Fenwick, Corsi, scoring chances, high danger chances, expected goals) but the angle of winning for OVI on a historical night maybe is worth something and a big reason for perhaps passing on the game? Not to mention the jackets were off for almost a week and washington played the night before. Curious what your thoughts are. Additionally, with the leafs game, Calgary suited up a guy with little experience in goal last night, who just happened to steal the show. That doesn't happen often and its about time calgary caught a break in that department. That said, watching the game it seemed as if the leafs were bound to score. And that power play? Their set plays seem so second nature I have a hard time wrapping my head around their power play being just luck. They regularly manage to bait teams into specific positions opening up their set plays which, quite honestly, are mesmerizing to watch, when they work. While the leafs are continually over-valued, and always will be, again, this is another game I feel like maybe deserved a pass? The best value bet was in the live play, with calgary up a goal and leafs hit +240 on the ML which is what i was very happy to take. I guess, bottom line, take the value (and yes, puck luck played a big fucking deal here with both games being very close) but I just have to wonder if sometimes that, maybe the grass isn't always greener on the other side. By no means am I saying they're bad plays - they're not considering its the NHL. I guess what I'm saying is, sometimes, rather than polishing up a turd, its better to just flush it. Hah. Cheers. PS: I took your LA pick thursday btw. :D Thanks.
I will address this at some point but what if Columbus won and I picked Washington? Would your narrative be, Columbus wasn't going to allow OVI to reach a milestone on their watch? Playing results is easy.
Nov 11, 2021 13:48:53
Ok, I need to call you on this one. You preach value and yet, your logic to take Miami tonight is that the books could/should have put double digits on Baltimore and not swayed a bet? Yes, Baltimore stock up and Miami stock down. I just can't wrap my mind around how it is "value" because they are only getting 7. No opinion on the game so I'm not touting the Ravens. Just the betting of a bad team because the linesmakers are coaxing you to go the other way.
Value is not the only criteria we use. It's one of many strategies with recognizing a fishy line being another one.
Nov 10, 2021 12:12:01
Can you share your opinion on early NFL betting. You preach value, which is great - but surely there is value in looking at the initial lines that come out - which can often be based on knee-jerk reactions from the week...and make some plays then...instead of waiting till Sunday as the lines adjust accordingly. Sure there can be some major mid-week injuries or COVID-affected players, and even weather problems that can alter a line, but I'd still think some lines stick out more than others that represent good value.
If there are games you like early in the week that you believe are going to "move" in your favor, then by all means bet them. Many people do but it's not in our wheelhouse unless the plan was to buy it back the other way and go for a middle. I'm aware of which way lines will move. The efficient market will bet those games early and move it. Frankly, I am not, nor do I want to be a part of the efficient market. That's known as CLV or closing line value and it's a position or strategy we do not endorse. Houston was another good example of that last week when Miami opened at -7 and closed at +4. If you took Houston, you got tremedous CLV at +7 and ripped up your ticket. Our postion is that the market is not efficient and it's a side we don't want to be on, which is why we do not bet early in the week.
Nov 7, 2021 11:05:45
All your write ups are pure Gold. Thanks. All nfl plays except your minnows over Baltimore.
Thanks man. Minnows are tough to bet sometimes.
Oct 30, 2021 12:51:57
I dont know if the NY Jets cover or not, but I have to say your writeup on this game is fucking hilarious, I literally laughed my ass off, great writeup!
Thank you Tom. We try. Go (gulp) Jets!
Oct 29, 2021 01:02:04
You know me by now. Yes I am playing results with this message. But eh guess what we WON. Solid run the last few days including live. Everything. You're as solid as they come bro. The way you just stick with it. Good things happening these final 2 months of the year. Thanks for everything you do buddy. And yes this was a drunken celebratory message. Huge win also thanks to you. Keep it up.
Haha...Thanks Eric!
Oct 27, 2021 11:17:03
Your analysis in the NHL is top notch. It seems that your readers (and yes they’re still reading) believe that YOU have tomorrow morning’s “sports page”. Tough business, but keep up the hard work and analysis. If you ever run across tomorrow morning Sports section, let me know and I’ll meet you in Vegas. My treat.
Jay S
Oct 26, 2021 23:41:44
Absolute great call on the Flames.Very pragmatic. Your one step ahead of the books right now.They need to reajust their lines . NHL maybe the best place too make some $$ right now
Oct 26, 2021 13:05:36
Hi Woody!! Had an enjoyable & profitable evening watching your in-game live Betting Broadcast last night. I learned a lot of new strats from you fellas and look forward to joining you again on your next broadcast. Cheers!!
Appreciate it and glad you were able to join! See ya next time.
Oct 24, 2021 18:19:31
Just because you are getting a few extra points of perceived value with a dog isn't working as dogs are getting killed in this new age of high scoring NFL. Jets and Bears today don't belong on same field so if a case can't be made that they can win then it's just a matter of time before they trail huge!
Hey genius, how about sending over a screen shot of the bets you made before the game starts. Telling me afterward gives you no credibility. You could have bet as much as you wanted to on the Patriots to beat Jets and Bucs to beat Bears but I don't see any wagers. All I see is someone playing results. Geniuses like yourself, that message me after the games are over are 4000-0 since I started this site. Nice picks.
Oct 21, 2021 17:16:00
Love the counterintuitive NFL writeup you have going on for Brown's vs Broncos: I think it's spot on!
Thanks Chris
Oct 21, 2021 14:00:11
Have always loved your logic. Doesn't mean i blindly tail your picks, that would be dumb. But everyday i narrow my wagers down, I then come here to see what you have to say. More often than not i generally agree with the reasoning, the picks, to me, are secondary. You've taught me a lot over the years, especially about value. Much appreciated. Will continue to check in here everyday that i do place a wager. Bad run or not, and we've all been there, your long track record is a rich tapestry of long term success. Thanks for what you do.
Greg, thanks so much for the kind words and for taking the time to send them. Greatly appreciated. Your message is the exactly the type of message that keeps me motivated. It made my day knowing that people are learning different concepts. Thanks again, friend.
Oct 20, 2021 11:22:44
I'm a long-time fan of yours. If I may, I feel like you are using "Double Reverse" Psychology on some and perceiving market overreaction to make a play when that overreaction is only very mild, if at all. I also think you give too much credit to oddsmaker when a line looks "fishy" or Pinnacle leans a certain way. Your fundamental analysis of a game is so solid, I feel like your winning percentage would soar if you didn't overthink it with that other stuff. This is just my random observation. As somebody who is 50/50 win percentage myself, I could just as likely be wrong as right!
Thanks DG
Oct 17, 2021 11:00:45
A tough run for sure, and looking at your results one thing stands out and it is that you have been backing a lot of bad teams the past month or so and/or fading a lot of good ones. Sometimes I find this simple statement helpful. Winners win, and losers lose. Be patient. Wait for opportunities to back winning programs in favourable spots and don't try and force the issue and fall into the trap of being seduced by what appears to be a generous amount of points by backing losers like New Mexico or fading winners like Alabama. To borrow a couple lines from the legendary songwriting duo of Walter Becker and Donald Fagan. They got a name for the winners in the world...they call Alabama the Crimson Tide.
Chris G.
Meanwhile Chris, you can walk into a sportsbook in Vegas and bet all you want against any of said "bad teams" for as much as you want. You could have bet 100K on Colorado State to beat New Mexico. Six weeks is a small sample size. 20 years of long term winning is a bigger sample size.
Oct 14, 2021 18:11:32
Not loving the early zig-zag on the Rangers especially when I see Shesterkin v Holtby. I'm on board with your other selections.
Oct 3, 2021 11:39:53
Our Cleveland under for the season bet turns on today’s game in Texas. I hedged off at +104 at Pinny. What are you doing?
Your calculations are wrong. The bet is a winner, as Cleveland is 79-82 going into today. Its best possible outcome is 80-82, which is two games under .500. The over/under was 50.5%. Thus, the bet is a winner my friend.
Sep 27, 2021 18:33:38
Hey Sherwood Just wondering if Matt and yourself will be back on twitch TV anytime soon. Miss your live betting insights.
Thanks very much Gp. We are most certainly planning on more LIVE betting on TWITCH in the future. During the NBA season, we will be on frequently and are looking forward to it. Please stay tuned and thanks for inquiring.
Sep 27, 2021 17:53:36
Any thoughts on MLB pennant winners? Thank you. Win ,lose, or draw you are the best!!
Bob L.
Hi Bob, thanks for the kind words. No thought right now but if something pops up that looks good, we'll be sure to post it.
Sep 27, 2021 16:04:24
Sherwood long time follower truly respect your work and I think there’s no one else that does it better out there but for the love of God for the love of humanity stop betting on the Jets stop recommending the Jets stop being the Jets no more complete failure of a franchise. Take Care
Duly noted!
Sep 26, 2021 11:12:03
Hey sherwood all your readers know that your all about "value" what's the value in a losing play? Go back to Japanese baseball. Football just ain't your thing. Also know your a big fan of before kickoff. For the sake of saving your readers take raiders minus 3.5 browns minus 7.
Duly noted.
Sep 25, 2021 10:26:29
You need to add the As as a win
Sep 9, 2021 13:59:43
Good stuff as always Brian! Any chance of reviving the podcast? Always good stuff on those discussions! All the best!
Thanbks Asi, we'll be posting some live recordings on Twitch while going over strategies so stay tuned. Appreciate you inquiring!
Sep 6, 2021 09:26:58 completely nailed the Blue Bombers vs Roughriders game!!!
We try Sean. We really do and we appreciate you acknowledging it. Let's try again today!
Sep 4, 2021 07:28:12
Pure wizardry last night on the gridiron. Outstanding work, as per usual.
Thanks Joel
Aug 31, 2021 16:07:05
Here is what your today’s predictions will read tomorrow With all do respect Sherwoody Detroit X wrong St.Louis X wrong Minnows - correct 1/3 isn’t bad
Aug 28, 2021 15:01:37
Sherwood, Nebraska an all round embarrasement in 1first haft I think 2nd haft they will be better. may the force be with you.
Aug 27, 2021 12:31:12
Hey Brian, followed your advice yesterday and came up 3 for 3 all for a great write up and free. Keep up the good work man ,wish there were more like you . JA
Thanks JA. Happy you cashed man!
Aug 21, 2021 13:57:38
I cannot believe you took Calgary over Montreal. Stamps have so many rookies, its almost an expansion team. And you nailed it, you are having a field day with the CFL this season, way to go. Why didnt I listen, lol....
Aug 21, 2021 10:50:03
Hi Sherwood, do you use betting exchanges? Betfair won't let me join. Do you any any other good ones in Canada?
There are no betting exchanges in this region (Canada). Betfair pulled out about 4 or 5 years ago. Hoping to see one pop up sometime soon
Aug 16, 2021 01:02:30
Hey sherwood as a loyal follower over the years I know you you have a hate on for proline. Terrible odds. How do you feel about the single betting they will be offering and will you be making an account with them. I'm assuming the odds will be just as bad as with proline if you were to pick a single game over under for example at 1.65 and 1.75.
Big fan
I will 100% not be wagering into unfavorable lines. If the lines are fair, which I highly doubt, then I would open an account but we all know when the government is the house, the player has no shot.
Aug 9, 2021 21:15:36
Your Cleveland selection was brain surgery. The equivalent of a hole in one in golf terms.. We who follow your advice are most fortunate. Thank you. James Hanna
James Hanna
I appreciate that James. Thank you
Aug 7, 2021 13:17:16
Nice work on the Friday CFL game!
Thanks Tom
Aug 6, 2021 14:36:04
Any ideas on why it takes so long for CFL odds to come out so far this season?
Because they're just not sure. Next week's lines will be posted much earlier.
Aug 3, 2021 15:31:51
On Pinny, from the main MLB odds screen you can now see arrows beside the handicap odds for each game which will bring up the various different prices for different spreads, making it much easier to enter multiple bets from the one screen.
Thanks Peet
Aug 3, 2021 14:46:19
Do you think you'll have any season win totals in the NFL and CFB? Looking forward to seeing them.
Probably not Bob. With Covid protocols in place, there are too many things that could go wrong. For instance, we bet a team under, one game gets cancelled, and the books will grade the wager as void. It is so much work that goes into posting season win totals that could all be for not.
Aug 1, 2021 12:24:29
For Pinny and alternate run lines, click on the baseball game of interest, then on "Handicap - Game" and then on "See More", it will give you a range of +/- 2 or 2.5.
Got it. Thanks
Aug 1, 2021 12:12:06
Pinnacle's Alternate Run Lines can be found by expanding the Handicap - Game section within the betting line for any game. I wouldn't say it's intuitive, but it is at least still there.
I still can't find it Peet. I see the fav -1½ but still cannot find the ALT. Can you please email me a screen shot....Thanks
Jul 10, 2021 08:11:55
I love your style and willingness to go against the grain but even us most experienced gamblers get caught in ruts of bad runs. After the bad beats you recently had, if yesterday writing up 8 games wasn't an example of "forcing it" I don't know what was?!?! Yes hindsight is 20/20 after the 0-fer night, but says to me once again that even the best can get caught chasing value when it maybe isn't there? Great job on taking a break from MLB....watching from the bench and "catching your breath" is also a great sports gambling strategy, required sometimes and in my opinion THE MOST difficult thing to learn for us sports nuts/gamblers! I know...I've been doing it for 35+ years! Enjoy, and keep up the fabulous work!!! We all really appreciate your picks and especially the commentaries with them.
Thanks man. Appreciate the support
Jul 7, 2021 05:45:59
Another day using your nba betting strat on the bucks. When they went down 20, line hit +15/16 for -105 to -120 in the 3rd. I managed to grab them at +16.5 and while it was close, it payed off once again. The books simply haven't (or can't?) get their live lines right late in games (and when the stars are on the bench) and this is without a doubt a flaw I can't wait to exploit more. I have a feeling though this may not last much longer as more data becomes available. The books can't seem to factor in momentum - let alone the fact that stars are sitting on the fuckin bench. You would have to imagine they have some of the best (and well paid) stats/analytical-gurus looking to improve this. Also - I'm guessing you probably took a live line something similar to what I did - can't see you passing up a line like that if you practice what you preach! Tweet that shit out! And hey, how about these overs? Let's see more shit like that. Fuck Manfred and fuck the books.:D
BJ - Nice work man. I had the Bucks at +14½ and luckily that paid off too. That said, don't kid yourself about the books making adjustments.....This will continue because as we pointed out in our broadcasts, most people play it the wrong way. When they Suns were up 18, most people would lay -14½ because they're making a bet on a favorite that they're already winning.....It ain't going anywhere! Next NBA season, we'll be broadcasting almost the meantime, apply the same strategies for football.
Jul 6, 2021 17:04:04
Drinking the Adam Wainwright kool-aid today?
Jul 4, 2021 14:08:36
The habs were never more than +2000 when they were down 3-1 to the Leafs. I know this because it was something I was shopping for at the time. +5000 is not accurate at all, and hopefully debunking this helps you on the toss away bet RV.
Jul 3, 2021 09:29:18
Brian, I took MTL over Tampa in the series before Game 2 +475 due to the value I saw in the overreaction to Game 1. I noticed Bet365 has raised it to +4000 for the habs to hoist the cup. Obviously, it's a very low probability of them going 4-0 but I'm looking at the value here. They were priced +5000 when they were down 3-1 to the Leafs in the first round and needed 15 wins to win the cup and now they're +4000 when they need 4 straight wins. Any opinion?
RV, Montreal isn't coming back from 0-3 but it's hockey and it's sports and anything can happen. Before Buster Douglas beat Mike Tyson, not a single person believed Douglas could win but at 40-1, the term "throwaway bet" was coined. I would never deter you from betting Montreal. Besides, they don't even have to win 4, if they win 3, you have yourself a massive hedge. Perhaps even two games. It is absolutely worth a "throwaway bet". Good luck!
Jul 2, 2021 15:27:25
Hey Sherwood, would you bet these games if you don’t have option to bet the -1.5 on the dog? My book doesn’t offer these alternative run lines.
Yes I would
Jun 30, 2021 12:43:38
In on MTL +475 to win the series. Now that's value and a complete overreaction to Game 1.
Jun 29, 2021 22:06:30
Totally disagree with you on the NHL final series on the outcome, I think Tampa in 4 or 5. But who gives a shit what I think. Your analysis is very insightful and the only value is on the Habs. I will hope game 3 has value and will wait Hoping Tampa blasts them in game 2 to set that up
Exactly right Tom. Who gives a shit what anyone thinks. We MUST play value! Good call! Thanks man.
Jun 29, 2021 13:12:25
Those comments were not written by trolls or morons the written by your greatest fans who are used to coming here and getting free money in their pocket and when you’re having an off night they’re upset that the Sherwood money machine is not dispensing I know firsthand because sometimes I get upset I almost expect your wins to happen on a nightly basis
Thank you.
Jun 26, 2021 20:17:22
You might not win this bet but Bianca at 26-1 at Wimbledon on SI is insane. She might lose in the first round but the payout is incredible if she wins the tournament. I called her US open win in 2019 at 14-1. A unit could be used in much worse ways. Just saying.
Jun 26, 2021 13:34:43
NYI series loss not included in yesterday's record?
Updated. Thanks
Jun 25, 2021 20:16:50
Hey jetson97, maybe give up sports gambling and go back to bingo. Hey Sherwood, thanks for printing morons comments like this, made us all laugh.
It is amusing. A troll and moron rolled into one.
Jun 25, 2021 13:47:32
I am surprised that when jetson had is detective hat on, that he couldn't figure out that Cleveland was +167 (the other pick of the night), and that labeling the Pirates as +167 is a clear and obvious accident by the generous author of the writeups. However, can't be too surprised, because the call out of being stuck 40 units is an over exaggeration, and the entire scope of the YTD is actually PLUS 12. With my detective hat on, I will suggest that Sherwood has himself a good ole fashioned troll in the comment section. Poor little fella can't manage his losses so he needs to vent lol. Carry on! Thanks as always Brian!
Thanks Dingle. Trolls do exist.
Jun 25, 2021 12:03:49
Sherwood its been ok lately . nice work. 2 nice plays on baseball last night.. we needed that. hope the islanders win it tonight .I have a good sprinkle on series. lets hit the books hard tonight those bloodsucking scumsuckers. MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU.
Thanks Marcus. Appreciate it man.
Jun 25, 2021 07:51:27
+167 on Pirates- no chance that line ever existed.. Giving yourself extra juice. I guess that's what happens when you're stuck 40 units
Yeah, that's exactly what I was trrying to do....fool all the people that come here but you caught it. Nice detective work, Sherlock. Fuck, are you on the ball. Now try writing up 2000 games a year and never making an error. Fucking idiot.
Jun 24, 2021 03:37:13
48 points is just incredible for trae, and good on him. But I want to say this - Took your live betting strat and waited for a good spot. Got bucks at +1.5 for -130 (almost got -115). This was at the point where the bucks were down the most, and although in the end it didn't pay out, I was able to cash out in time to make it profitable when bucks went up enough to cash it. I know this deviates from the strat (a bit) But I simply waited for a better line, grabbing extra points and got out early expecting a late demise from the bucks which, of course, happened. Also - got that series wager on the isles parlayed with montreal, so fingers crossed. Cheers and thanks, as usual. Keep it up.
That is the right thing to do BJ. You played it exactly right. Nice work despite results. Thanks for letting us know!
Jun 15, 2021 17:14:01
Cincy is up to even money for tonight at Pinny. Opportunity or trap, lol??
I wish I knew. I have the Reds. I thought last night was a trap. Good luck Brent. I'll say it'san opportunity. I hope I'm right.
Jun 15, 2021 12:50:39
Sherwood wen goona have good day today after last night slaughter .lets hammer the books those bloodsucking scumsuckers.LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.
Jun 11, 2021 12:58:55
Sherwood things have been good lately,last night mild disgrace don't give up. keep fighting. lets hammer the books today those bottom feeding bloodsucking scumsuckers .cheers
May 29, 2021 17:40:44
Sherwood that Miami game was tough to watch . we gonna have good night lets nail the books those bloodsucking scumsuckers. live long and prosper.
May 27, 2021 12:31:53
Hi Brian, I was wondering if you saw any value in taking Montreal tonight +200 OT included? The Leafs have dominated the series but Carey Price is in net and I don’t see them going down without a fight.
May 26, 2021 18:03:13
I've yet to see golf match ups @ my book. I know get a new book, how about make some picks we can all bet.
May 23, 2021 11:26:59
Sherwood I no last night was an absolute disgrace . today going to be good day cant get worse then last night I think lol keep up good work lets hit the books hard today those bloodsucking scumsuckers . cheers
May 22, 2021 13:01:46
Looks like Pinnacle might be on to your "Coors Field angle". Today you can't bet the home underdog Rockies -1.5 - both the run line and the alternate run line are San Francisco -1.5.
Interesting indeed
May 22, 2021 12:46:53
Just wondering if you had an NBA series wagers? Thanks for all that you do and stand for. Blessings and favor on you and yours
Hi Ed: We'll have some NBA series wagers tomorrow. Thanks for the kind words!
May 20, 2021 17:04:52
Hi Kev, early payout only works on the money line, not the alternative run line on bet365 but still good to know the cash out option! Cheers
May 20, 2021 13:54:53
Your Baltimore -1.5 bet did you bet it at bet365? What some of your followers might not know is that it would have been graded a winner because of bet365 early payout format.
Apr 30, 2021 07:42:01
The gambling gods giveth and then taketh on consecutive nights in Minnesota. Feel like we deserve better from our fade of the Wild, but to borrow a line from William Munny, “deserves got nothin’ to do with it”. Keep the good info coming.
Apr 24, 2021 13:26:42
Love everything you have to say about the Wild/Sharks tilt but I'm afraid the Martin Jones factor will mitigate all of the advantages the Sharks seem to have working for them tonight. Good luck!
Apr 24, 2021 12:03:19
Hey Woody, i luv your Corsi angle by siding against the Wild today but part of me raises an eyebrow too especially when i see that the Flames rank fifth over all in Corsi and have been a steaming pile of garbage all season. The angle that has me more excited than the Corsi stats is that this will be the Wild's 3rd game in 4 nights and the tail end of a back to back. Either way i luv your pick with the Sharks t'nite!!!
Apr 24, 2021 09:37:13
Fuck the good vibes. Give me a goddamn mlb winner for once (and don’t forget to record it!)
You jinxed me, dammit!
Apr 24, 2021 09:35:30
My god you are on fire with heavy dawgs in NHL, WTG! Buffalo +445 Crazy
Thanks Tom. The prices are absurd and must be played! It's hockey.
Apr 24, 2021 09:32:19
Sherwood , some comments people leave are little harsh. I don't know if that bothers you or not. I hope not. For me, you take off the heavy lifting out of it I appreciate that. Last night not a great night but not horrible either. Buffalo helped. If Angels win I make little profit. With buffalo alone took a little loss. Sports gambling is hard. Picking winners is hard. There are lots of jack tards selling picks out there who have no idea what their talking about. I've been a victim, you no what I mean. Your insight is free. I know hours of hard work goes into this I don't think people appreciate that sometimes . I appreciate it Sherwood . all the respect. Now lets hammer the books today.
It does not bother me one bit Marcus. Thanks for the support and kind words too.
Apr 23, 2021 15:24:07
Sherwood i made nice little profit yesterday keep putting the work in . I appreciate it . don't let that trolling stuff bother you . its hard just to win one game. you no what I mean . we on the same team . lets nail the books today those bloodsucking scumsuckers. cheers.
Tahnks for the support! Keep it rolling, Marcus
Apr 23, 2021 11:30:21
You should be lucky you have trolls. Don’t fuck up anymore with your track record and stop being so cynical.
Apr 18, 2021 22:14:35
raptors favored by 10.5 boom. 4 starters sit out. someone made big money on this game but not you or me. this has the smell of a rotting fish. what do you think?
James Hanna
It sucks for us. We got caught playing a really bad number and it cost us. That's the chance one takes when betting early but it could have just as easily been the other way around. We could have had OKC too. It's something that happens from time to time and there is nothing anyone can do.
Apr 18, 2021 18:42:43
No kidding on Baltimore...dudes get thrown out at home on a single NEVER in a season. After seeing that, Miami-SF score total of one run off 9 pitchers, and NJ in pucks getting screwed by a PP goal with 3 mins left after tying it up - all red flags for a BREAK from some action for a while. Time for a Time-Out! WOW.
Yeah, and you only mentioned a fraction of the things that went wrong this past weekend. Disgusting
Apr 17, 2021 18:40:38
Great call on Ottawa! Isn’t it great when you handicapped a game and it absolutely is spot on! Keep up the great work on here and on twitch.
Thanks Taxman
Apr 16, 2021 15:53:13
Per your write-up today indicating that starting pitching is not as important as it used to be, at least one (sharp) book seems to agree with you. Pinnacle has eliminated the "listed pitcher" option for wagers, all baseball bets are action regardless of whether the scheduled starter(s) go or not.
Thanks for that Brent. Good info
Apr 11, 2021 09:12:03
hey Sherwood nice day yesterday im hanging in there with you . we in the fight together . lets nail the books today those scumsucking ,bloodsuckers. all the respect.
Apr 9, 2021 14:34:12
Thanks for your insights, much appreciated. Regarding your pick tonight on the LA Kings, you mentioned that LA holds an edge in most important stats over the past 10 games. Nat Stat Trick actually has San Jose ahead in xGF% by around 8%, which is a pretty big margin. Just wanted to bring it to your attention in case there's a typo somewhere or one of our sources is out to lunch. Much respect, Brent
Thanks Brent
Apr 8, 2021 23:54:22
Almost each day I pick your best game that I havent missed. And I'm killing it. Thanks for your tireless research and dedication.
Robert H.
Glad to hear it Robert and thanks for taking the time to let us know and for acknowledging the hard work. Keep it going!
Apr 5, 2021 18:32:00
Love that hockey and Sherwood is back. There are some exciting and enticing plays out there. Puck luck may not have gone your way before but theres still time to make some smart money!
Apr 2, 2021 10:20:45
Good luck with MLB this year. There is no way to make informed picks.
Mar 23, 2021 19:59:31
All the MLB teams to go under the totals? Gotta be some winning teams
That is very true but I rarely, rarely, rarely recommend playing overs in any sport because inevitable injuries are not figured into the line, thus the risk is too great. I look for unders and 99% of all my future plays are unders. Unless the number is outrageous (Miami for instance), look for unders.
Mar 21, 2021 11:23:22
Sherwood . I been making some profit lately, with your picks .thank you . lets slam the books today those bloodsucking scumsuckers . I think it was right of you to take little break in hockey . cheers brother
Mar 19, 2021 18:23:51
Hi. I am the one who messaged you on Twitter about taking Arkansas in-play. I think you committed the cardinal sin we are all guilty of.... doubling down on your team even though they clearly don’t have it (ahem... Tennessee).
Mar 18, 2021 16:37:23
You done with hockey? Do you ever check to see what your record would be with hockey this season if you just played the money line on hockey teams that didn’t win in regulation that you picked
I am not done with hockey
Mar 17, 2021 23:11:35
Nice money line call on the Spiders...much appreciated.
Mar 17, 2021 11:44:16
Any chance you might throw a couple of dark horses out there for the big dance?? Maybe a UConn or Tex Tech
I may throw out a dark horse or two on Thursday!
Mar 17, 2021 11:00:06
Thank you guys for all of the hard work and knowledge you've passed down. Have been having a lot of fun on the live feeds and have had great success. It is greatly apprecited, here's to continued success!!
Jim Jantzen
Jim, thanks so much for taking the time to send a positive message. We greatly appreciate it. Continued success to you my friend. Stay in touch and let us know how you're making out. Cheers
Mar 16, 2021 13:22:49
Pick 2 NHL games tonight. Just 2. You can do it!!!!
Mar 11, 2021 14:57:47
Sherwood....10-0 on your last 10 basketball picks. Well done!!!!! Thank you.
Mar 11, 2021 11:24:34
Sherwood, thanks for all your hard work over the years. I always find your write ups engaging and entertaining. Your work is appreciated by all of us and let's keep it going..
Thank you JC. Much appreciated.
Mar 11, 2021 09:06:11
3-0 on your NCAAB picks! Keep her going, mate!! I feel a turnaround looming in a big way...thanks as always for your effort and hard work!!
Thank you for taking the time to send this Pat.
Mar 10, 2021 23:41:01
Sherwood, keep up the focus and great work on the discrepencies in NCAA hoops ("value" as you would call it!). You're great at digging these out in a sport with wide variances of results, especially in a crazy year with the layoffs/records skewed. Nice sweep today - thank you. Keep it rollin'! (...and leave pucks on the backburner while you're cold there, at least for now - in this also-crazy NHL year)
I appreciate the kind words and support. The grind is very real but it sure is fun digging for value. Let's keep eating my friend.
Mar 9, 2021 20:44:24
I’m a chick and I can pick NHL winners much better than you. Quite frankly, you fucking suck!
What does being a "chick" have to do with picking better than me. A), I don't believe you for a second and B), I don't care.
Mar 9, 2021 19:30:22
Also your silent follower. For the past x years.You my remember me as a Toronto Argo fan. Missed that Montreal game.. Just to say keep up the great work a lot of fans appreciate it. Best wishes , be positive.
Mr B! Great to hear from you. Thanks for taking the time to send a message. Stay well and stay safe. All the best!
Mar 9, 2021 13:21:58
Sherwood, I’ve been a silent follower for many years. Your approach to sports wagering is unique, legit, and appreciated. It’s one way to do it in a pool of many ways. Your long term reach record speaks for itself. Some of your followers seem to think you have tomorrow Morning’s sports section. Let’s not forget that’s why we can bet em. Keep ion the much appreciated hard work in sports handicapping.
Jay S
Jay, I really appreciate the words of encouragement and the time you took to send them. Thanks for the support and let's keep grinding! Peace and calm.
Mar 9, 2021 01:06:35
In my books you went 3-0 today. Great picks my man! I'm sorry I rattled your chain a little bit there hahaha I was never going to stop looking at your write ups. Keep up the good work. Ps. Please consider dropping the regulation only picks. OT is just apart of hockey as stressful and annoying as it is. Your record without regulation would probably be closer to 50% lifetime and I'm willing to bet thats true.
You didn't rattle my chain, lol. There is an old sayin' that says, If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen". Your message was very mild (compared to some I get) Eric but I thought it was appropriate to use to get accross one of the many messages accross that we preach. Thanks for being a good sport about it. More importantly, best of luck, always!
Mar 8, 2021 08:34:49
Sherwood nice Saturday ,nice Sunday, lets start week with a bang lets have nice Monday , keep up good work . cheers
Thanks much. The grind is real.
Mar 7, 2021 08:32:56
Sherwood nice Saturday . lets have nice sunday . keep it rolling . cheers
Mar 6, 2021 12:50:56
No hockey pick today? C’mon man! Don’t quit. Stock with Vancouver tonight again. Hot goalie there for Canucks. Matthews dealing with mind games. Leaf goalie weak right now. Canucks playing inspired hockey
Mar 6, 2021 08:30:10
Sherwood tough Friday.lets have big Saturday.hang in there . lets nail the books those scumsuckers .cheers
Mar 4, 2021 21:49:25
Take a week off or something. Just do your live betting. You need a bit of a break cause this is getting ugly lol. The teams youre betting in hockey are just straight trash. Vancouver has zero chance against these Leafs right now. There is no situation that favors Vancouver in any capacity when a team is this hot. Youre betting against the beasts and on top of that betting them to win in regulation. Burning money my friend. Vancouver has lost how many units for you now. Just stop betting them. Period. And look at your history of hockey picks. How many times you gunna lose on VAN and NJ and any other bottom 10 team, every other day i come on here all I see is VANCOUVER. You've lost your marbles lol
Hi Eric. I overlooked that the Canucks were playing in street shoes instead of skates and had zero chance. You are aware that you can walk into any sportsbook and bet whatever you want against New Jersey and Vancouver and just sit back and collect, right? Books are giving away money and now it's just a matter of how much you want. Good times!
Mar 3, 2021 17:07:17
Sherwood are u giving up on hockey I no the past little while has been a disgrace. no post today, there is good value in those bets. don't give up the hockey it has been funny this year in hockey
Not giving up.
Mar 2, 2021 16:38:56
Nashvilles last 8 contests have rotated between CBJ and DET. Yikes. Lol does that concern you at all?
Betting against the 'Canes in a difficult spot. Nothing more, nothing less.
Feb 28, 2021 11:48:29
Thank you for the priceless wisdom and free access to your Informative insights. Sherwood, Michigan State is on a tear right now and they’re playing with fire in their eyes and in their bellies? How can’t we capture the energy and swagger in kenPom ??? Do it near any considerations? Thanks
Cussy Baythaat
We buy low and sell high. The time to sell on State was today. The rest is just fodder.
Feb 27, 2021 15:30:36
Great forecast on Habs/Jets tonight, I am on board, coaching changes usually help, in this case, the power play really needed a new look
Feb 24, 2021 23:14:34
What we are witnessing here is a slump. Everyone has them, it is part of a gamblers life. But, what we also are witnessing is a professional no winning, so he backs away. That is discipline. That is a pro or in vegas terms, a sharp. Does not chase, knows that this is not his time. He will come back, with bankroll in tact
Feb 24, 2021 06:34:49
Please don't stop capping hockey. I see what another dude is saying, and I've also wondered the same (regarding your record) but the insight you provide for free is truely appreciated. I would have no problem if you posted picks but explicity stated you were not actually playing them. As long as the writeups keep coming.
Thanks BJfan. I'm just taking a break from hockey, as we're bleeding units badly but I really do appreciate the encouraging words. We will be back!
Feb 23, 2021 06:50:43
Thanks for your thoughtful reply to my message the other day. I'm in my mid 50's and a huge lifelong sports fan. I only gamble very small amounts that have zero impact on my financial well being, yet really just want to win for the excitement of being on the right side. Compared to the average person, I know a ton about sports, but when I read your write ups on obscure NCAA basketball teams like Mercer, it's just a whole different level of knowledge. If I had to guess, I'd say at least 95% of the U.S population has never heard of Mercer college, let alone their basketball team. Your write ups are not only informative, but well written with a dose of humor as well. I didn't play anything today since I'm on vacation and tend to get caught up in checking scores, even on such the small bets I make. I checked your picks this evening and saw you split your early games and that the Hornets were up at 3 halftime. I know the NBA is often a game of runs, and teams can easily be down double digits and win, or up double digits and lose, but was still surprised to see the Hornets lost by 22 points. Took a look at the play by play and saw Hornets were only down 1 starting the 4th quarter, but gave up 4 straight 3's in a two minute span. It just sucks to seem to be on the right side for three quarters, and then have a team collapse on you. Sorry about that. Hope you're staying healthy up in Canada, and thanks for all the great write ups.
Bob S
No question I put in the time/hours when it comes to studying teams and digging for games daily. Thanks again Bob for the support and words of encouragement. I really do appreciate it.
Feb 22, 2021 00:37:54
I've followed your site for a while, and enjoy your well written and informative write ups. I've been taking a shot at some of your hockey plays lately. Just can't seem to get anything going, even when we had two teams today with 2-0 leads. You clearly know hockey well, but looking at your historical record ( which I give you a lot of credit for keeping accurately ), it's been years since you've had a winning season in hockey. I'm wondering if there comes a point where you think it's not worth the effort to try an cap hockey. Not bashing at all, as you clearly follow the sport closely, and have detailed insights. I think it just shows how difficult it is to cap these games.
Bob S
Thanks for taking the time to send this message, Bob. It's frustrating as hell to me and I'm sure to others that follow and bet this sport to be bleeding units at the pace I am bleeding them now. I'm going to take a hard look at this and possibly take your suggestion and put hockey on the back burner. At the very least, I may cut it down to 1 play a day or just a handful a week. Thanks again.
Feb 20, 2021 11:36:07
LOVE that we are finally against the Sabres today. The worst franchise in North American professional sports, and it is not even that close. We'll make a lot of money fading those losers the rest of the way.
Chris G.
Feb 17, 2021 00:41:58
Once upon a time, the NHL adopted the "bye" week and it was you that I learned a valuable lesson from, mostly due to an insane record in favor of those opposing the team coming off said bye week. But if I recall, your insight on those games were beautifully written and couldn't be more accurate. With that said, I am stunned you went with the Wild tonight. I feel like Kings in regulation is like a Sherwood system pick. (Mind everyone im writing this as Kings are up 3-0) but still, I'm stunned. 2 weeks without a real game is extremely difficult, how can you even try to believe that the Minnesota wild would be the Minnesota wild after 2 weeks without playing a single game. I love what you do buddy, stay in the fight. Just get back to what you used to do. You had a mini run there. You're on the cusp. Just drop the brutal picks you know in your head aint right lol
With all due respect, New Jersey was off two weeks also and beat the Rangers last night. It's easy to play results. Those that message me when the game is over are 4733-0. Many COVID teams have won first game back. Back to the grind today, Eric.
Feb 14, 2021 10:18:23
Sherwood. thank you we were in need of a good day went 3 for 3 got NMS at -6. its been tough lately. lets nail the books again today. those scumsuckers .lol
We were indeed in need of a good day. It's been a long time coming after a horrible run. Thank you Marcus.
Feb 13, 2021 21:36:39
Sherwood, I never gave up hope on you. I’ve been doing round robins all hockey season with your picks. It’s amazing how one day the picks hit and turns the season green! Congrats buddy!
Good to hear. Just have to stick with it. Thanks for taking the time to send some positive vibes.
Feb 13, 2021 17:33:31
Solid pick on the Sens today! Patience has its rewards! Keep up the good fight!
Thanks Randy, appreciate it.
Feb 12, 2021 09:39:19
Sherwood its been a little bit of a rough patch lately, don't lose courage keep fighting the good fight .
Thanks Marcus, it's been very rough lately but in this biz, you take the good with the bad. I really appreciate the encouraging words. Peace!
Feb 10, 2021 14:14:18
hi Sherwood I like nc Greensboro today. my only reason is from revenge stand point u see any value at all in this game . love your insight on games thx sherwood
Feb 10, 2021 11:04:57
Jan 21, 2021 13:17:23
Lobos today? Looking for a spot to lay the hammer down against SJST. But New Mexico doesn't look much better on paper. Thoughts?
Tough call. If you like it, bet it. Spartans are toatl garbage and it sure seems like a small price but man, Lobos have been bad and I am not usually in favor of spotting significant points with a bad team. Good luck Joel!
Jan 19, 2021 20:57:50
Your comment today about starting goaltenders being equal to staring pitchers in betting importance is so correct and so missed all the time, wait until you know who is in the crease
Jan 18, 2021 15:27:57
You mentioned that the regulation time bet is available on Pinnacle. It it also available at Party Poker?
I really have no idea Bob. I do not wager at Party Poker. Most books have it. It might be listed as 3-way betting, which is exactly the same as Regulation bets.
Jan 17, 2021 09:07:05
A team you did a thorough analysis of back in December, Chicago State, has seemingly disappeared from Bet 365's daily slate of games. Have they ceased to play? Have their games been "unlined"? CURIOUS. James Hanna
James Hanna
The admins at their school pulled the plug on the college basketball season, citing financial and health concerns among the student athletes.
Jan 16, 2021 13:38:09
While I respect your write-up on the Bills game, does the line BILLS -21/2 not imply that the Books "want" action on the Bills, with a Bills field goal win a nice "easy win" for Bills bettors? James
James Hanna
I guess we're going to find out. My position hasn't changed, as we are trusting the Bills are underpriced
Jan 16, 2021 12:28:24
Sherwood. I am very grateful to read the product of your clever mind. Glad youre going also with Rams to at least cover. I wouldn't be suprised if they win straight or in overtime. Which sport do you like the most?
Thanks so much Perttu. My fav sport to bet is college hoops. My fav sport to watch is hockey. Let's go Rams! Thanks for taking the time to send me such a positive n=message.
Jan 15, 2021 12:10:45
I get what you are saying about not wanting your wager decided in a skills competition. However, betting hockey this way turns it into soccer for me which I have never done well with. I prefer to bet “2 outcome” events rather than “3 outcome” events. Just as too many soccer games end in draws to make it worth betting a side, there are too many NHL games that go beyond regulation time for my liking. I will take your advice on the games, as I like and often agree with your analysis. But I will bet them 2 Way. Thanks for all your hard work.
Jan 14, 2021 15:48:00
Sherwood Looking at Pinnacles SanJose regulationtime bet tonight the regulation "money " line and "handicap" line are different odds. What is the difference in betting one vs the other?
At Pinnacle, one can bet regulation only and get a push if the game goes to OT, therefore the odds are lower because a tie is a push after 60 minutes. The handicap line means that you need to win in regulation and therefore all ties are losses. That is why the odds to win on the handicap line are greater.
Jan 13, 2021 20:41:48
Congratulations on 2020, not shabby at all, have been reading your stuff for years, always enjoy your insights, appreciate the time you put in to this, and you still do it for free. Amazing
Jan 13, 2021 16:45:57
Hey Sherwood, I know you don’t like playing totals very often. Normally I see value on NHL totals at the beginning of the season especially on overs. Seems to me that the books are taking a more proactive approach by posting higher totals tonight. What do you think?
It's something to watch but also be mindful that the NHL is always looking for ways to add more scoring.
Jan 11, 2021 16:58:37
Thanks for sharing the comments from Daniel ahead of time, it helped solidify my pick on the Rams!
Jan 11, 2021 13:04:23
Hey Daniel, Don't worry it happens to all of us here with Master Sherwood. Stay silent and sharpen your pencil bro and sit your behind down. Your a student not the master. Humble yourself and learn from the BEST.
Jan 9, 2021 11:08:12
I can’t believe you took the Rams! They are horrid. Seattle will win for sure. 100% guaranteed. I do like Bills and Bucs though.
Jan 6, 2021 13:01:01
Wonder who went heavy on your pick last night. If there is one thing to learn never go heavy on any one game.
Jan 4, 2021 23:12:28
Jackson State an 'easy' cover tonight, Sherwood. Went heavy based on your analysis. Thanks!
You are welcome Claude. Very happy we were able to cash and thanks for taking the time to send a message.
Jan 1, 2021 08:59:51
Happy New Year Sherwood!!!Blessings to you and your loved ones!!!Thank you for all your hard work and expertise!!!Never seen anyone so consistently solid in all your college hoops the best but thanks for all!!
Ed: Thanks a mil for the kind words and well wishes. I really appreciate it and the time you took to send this. Let's kick some sportsbook ass!
Dec 30, 2020 12:14:45
Great 3-0 day yesterday.You have had a very good year.Thanks for all your hard work.
You are welcome Tim and thanks for taking the time to send me a message.
Dec 27, 2020 10:58:21
Atlanta Falcons will keep it closer than you think.
Dec 25, 2020 13:18:13
Merry Christmas Sherwood, I tell everyone you are the most trustworthy sports betting advisor on the internet. Fact. Keep doing what you do brother. We are all lucky to have this consistent resource!
Chris Donnelly
Thanks for saying so Chris. I really appreciate the kind words. Merry Christmas to you too.
Dec 23, 2020 17:32:56
Gotta love FAU and the points tonight. A dog is due to cover and the AAC not showing well so far.
Chris G.
Dec 22, 2020 13:41:14
Sunday NFL PICKS Sherwood 3-2-1 Daniel 1-4-1
Dec 22, 2020 13:38:58
Your insight is priceless and always free. Thanks for helping us. Truly appreciate the knowledge. What are your thoughts on "situational betting"?
I'm a strong supporter of situational betting, Sammy. Value and situational. Appreciate the kind words too.
Dec 22, 2020 10:48:03
i value it highly when you do not post a stand alone game e.g.monday night .i take it as a sign to stay far away from that contest thank you for all your hard work . have a blessed Christmas. James
James Hanna
Thank you for saying so James. You have a blessed Christmas also and thanks for the continued support.
Dec 21, 2020 12:00:48
You replied after the games were over. Way to put yourself out on the line there! You think this is easy? You make some damn picks. Tell him Sherwood!
Dec 20, 2020 17:56:18
Geez, great insight by Daniel, what website is this genius on? Shut the F#@k up
Dec 20, 2020 11:30:11
Tennessee, New England and San Francisco are good picks. The others will lose
Dec 15, 2020 16:57:11
thank you for the alert on illinois st. 2nd half blowout james
James Hanna
Dec 15, 2020 16:16:48
I have been on the end of some "bad beats" in my life but last nights Balt/Clev game takes the cake. That was a classic......a hook and ladder gong show safety with no time left on the clock for a 5 point win.
Dec 14, 2020 02:06:22
Great NFL picks this week Woody!!! As usual, your analysis & breakdowns were spot on and i shamelessly shadowed many of your picks. Now the fun part of putting all that good fortune towards a happy and festive Holidays. Cheers!!
Dec 13, 2020 12:51:12
Coolbets already offering me 6% above what I bought parlay for and the games haven’t even started yet! I played a combination of your NFL picks today on parlays
Dec 11, 2020 23:45:11
Great call on UCLA...and my son LOVES the Firestick!
Thanks Ralph!
Dec 9, 2020 17:20:23
Chicago St.a 36 1/2 pt. underdog today, managed to lose by 37. Any comment? James
James Hanna
The line actually opened at 33½ and was as low as 34½ for most of the morning. If you bet Chic St, you did so at a good price. Other than that, I have no comment.
Dec 4, 2020 14:56:12
i am fascinated by your analysis of chicago st. have you noticed any 'funny stuff' in any of their games. with a team like this do you see any advantage betting against them in the first half or rather the second
I am not even sure what happened yesterday. Chicago State was limited to 14 points in the first half and were down 23 at the half before outscoring EIU by 1 in the second half while scoring a sickening 42 points. That should not have happened but it is what it is. I would trust to fade them the entire game because they are so far out if it by then that their will is usually broken. Will fade em next time out too. There has to be funny stuff going on but it would be too obvious to be doing it every game. Keep an eye on them.
Dec 3, 2020 15:50:17
Wow congratz i had a Parlay with your 4 ncaab picks décember 2nd! You rock $$$$
LL Cool JP
Dec 2, 2020 22:18:20
Amazing night on college ball 4-0!!! U da man
Thank you Gord.
Dec 2, 2020 18:19:47
Hey Sherwood the total on the Evansville/UT Martin game tonight is 135 on Bet365 are you aware of anything that has caused it to move down so much?
Something happened. Probably a dude or two out but we can't find any info
Dec 2, 2020 14:55:25
All two of three of your side plays in NCAAB are wrong. Nice try Sherwood. Keep up the good work! Nevada covers, Baylor Covers $$$$
Unfortunately, you went 0-2 but at least you sent me these before the games started and for that you get respect. Incidentally, it was Gonzaga and not Baylor that was playing but I know what you meant.
Dec 1, 2020 10:07:04
Wow, just wow... the only thing missing was Al Michaels commenting on that hail mary and 2 pt conversion last night...went to sleep at 2 min warning disappointed LOL
Nov 28, 2020 12:18:16
Keep up the second to none work on College Football old friend!
Chris Donnelly
Nov 26, 2020 11:26:51
Sherwood,Just wanted to take a minute to wish you and yours a happy Thanksgiving !!!appreciate all you do!!!
Thanks Ed. Same to you. I appreciate that very much
Nov 18, 2020 03:50:25
Hi Brian, what ever happened to the podcasts?
My partner, Matt Finnie is busy with other projects and it's hard to coordinate things.
Nov 8, 2020 10:17:24
Re Arizona/Dolphins, what's to stop Brian Flores from playing Ryan Fitzpatrick instead of Tua. He could throw 4 picks or 4 TDS or both plus 400 yards and he's ticked about being benched last week. Flores is a competitive guy, if this starts off bad for Miami, Fitzpatrick is capable of rescuing this one more time.
Nov 5, 2020 20:38:24
Man oh Man, you are on fire with College Football, congrats, wow
Thank you, Tom
Nov 1, 2020 10:14:01
I think its time to be forthright with David. Its getting awkward.
Nov 1, 2020 05:00:45
I didn't miss this time.. thank you. I know it's not your favourite play but teaser and round robin parlays, wow what a mess I made yesterday. If Penn State covers on the line it would've been ugly, on the winning side. Thanks again Sherwood, loyal follower at least, 10 yrs.
Good to hear Joe. So glad you nailed it.
Oct 31, 2020 16:00:43
On 🔥🔥 what a heater lets keep it going Are we getting the nfl leans today?
Everything will be posted shortly.
Oct 31, 2020 15:49:19
Thank you for the offer to post my picks this Sunday. I said to myself that if you get Thursday night football correct I would hold off. I then said to myself if you got Friday’s games correct I would wait. I then said if you got the two early Saturday College games right I would hold off. You’ve made me good money these last few days. I’m not gonna mess with your mojo right now. Just so you know, if you have like a date or something and don’t have time to write up the picks I’m your guy! Thanks Sherwood
Oct 31, 2020 11:35:04
Love your writeups and analysis. As an IU grad, I'm familiar with the Old Oaken Bucket, but just googled it to double check my memory was right. That's IU-Purdue, not Illinois. I know Purdue isn't very good, so I'll ride your picks as usual. Have two daughters at Wisconsin, and watched the game vs IL last week. IL looked awful, but I know you always caution about too much emphasis on one bad game. Still don't understand why anyone thought Lovie Smith would bring winning football to U of I, but it's a tough place to win, and not a job any top coaches would even consider. Also, have no idea why White Sox think bringing back LaRussa at his age makes any sense. They'd have been better of bringing in cheating Hinch. Thanks for all your efforts. Good luck today,and going forward.
My bad for not looking it up as well but thanks for the correction and the kind words. All these coaches, managers, GM's etc just get recycled for a number of reasons that I'll talk about at a later time. Not a good look for UI or White Sox.
Oct 30, 2020 13:20:06
quite the year you're having, congrats! it seems to me that things turned around last summer when some guy came on this forum and ripped you and your picks. By my rough calculation you're up about 150 units since then. I'm guessing he didn't take the bet you offered him that day. We should piss you off more often keep up the good work.
You would be guessing right, DC. I never heard from that troll again. That said, my friend Daniel Negreanu once told me, if you have no haters, you are are doing something wrong. I get hate mail every week and I just ignore it. There will always be trolls. Thanks for the kind words, my friend!
Oct 30, 2020 12:33:21
Nice call on Fresno St. Any comment on resurrection of one of your favorite MLB managers-Mr LaRussa?
Bob L.
LOL, I love that you know how I feel about Tony LaRussa. That's gold! Fade the South Side! Fucking idiots, they are.
Oct 30, 2020 11:28:38
Killing me, i missed these picks! ugh.
How did you miss? We'll get em next time!
Oct 29, 2020 23:33:23
Nice pick on the Falcons. Keep up the great work.
Thanks Tim. Appreciate the time you took to send that.
Oct 26, 2020 16:11:38
Please post David's picks so we can auto fade him Any leans on Monday night Rams vs Bears Im thinkin of laying the 6 with the rams here
I do not have a strong opinion, Steve but good luck with whatever you decide to do. Regarding David, that gave me a chuckle. In David's defense, he is very well intended!
Oct 25, 2020 16:31:22
C’mon man! This was the easiest week for NFL picks. If you need some assistance writing up the picks I can do so and post them for next week
Yes, David, please write up the games you like and send them to me. I'll post them.
Oct 15, 2020 16:39:05
Take Houston to win the series against the Rays at +900 or take them to win the next 3 days and roll over your winnings.
Good call David!
Oct 11, 2020 13:38:08
I parlayed your NFL picks again this week. Eventually they will all win 🙄
Oct 7, 2020 18:10:38
I've met both Sherwood and Randall the Handle...they are definitely not the same person..Sherwood is much better looking RA
Oct 4, 2020 12:05:51
Randall the Handle was associated with this site years ago, Sherwood has run it solo for at least the last decade
Oct 3, 2020 18:36:24
Some people are alleging you are Randall The Handle. Is this true:
Oct 3, 2020 11:31:44
7 team NCAA football parlay for today pays $8,600 for $100 bet. I’m parlaying all your picks each day!
Oct 3, 2020 11:24:16
Ok. Picks look good today. Make my $300 back from that 4 team parlay
Oct 2, 2020 14:29:06
Love all the write up on heat, but Sherwood LA is too big too strong too. LA rolls.
Mick Snieder
Sep 30, 2020 19:50:27
As impressive as the Heat have been, I don’t see them beating King James in this series. The Jazz were arguably in a similar position against Air Jordan but couldn’t get over the hump. The price on the Lakers is prohibitive, so if one must bet on this series, the Heat are the pick I guess.
Sep 29, 2020 13:51:35
Just bet the 4 teams you posted to win their series. Astros, White Sox, Indians and Heat. $300 parlay pays $10,201.19! Let’s get it!!
Let's go!
Sep 29, 2020 13:50:09
Just bet the 4 team parlay you posted today. Astros, White Sox, Indians and Heat to win their series. $300 pays $10,000!
Sep 21, 2020 18:27:40
Don’t give up! You can take today off but come back strong on Tuesday! You can do it!!!
Sep 11, 2020 10:37:21
I've packed the firestick added a month to my stay in Mazatlan on account of your continued excellent analysis and selections. IF (that's a big if) you keep it up you just might get inducted into The Hallmark Hall of Fame!!! Keep up the good work!
Mr Hallmark
Sep 7, 2020 05:44:23
Great rip Sherwood!!!!!! Really nice rip - some exceptional handicapping recently. Keep it up
I appreciate that. Thank you.
Sep 6, 2020 23:29:57
you are definitely making up for last year!
Sep 1, 2020 17:25:19
Congratulations Sherwood, very nice heater going. Good luck sir.
James R.
Thanks James
Sep 1, 2020 11:44:32
plus 64 units in the last month, solid!!!...Keep it up!!!!...$$$$$$$$$$$....Will the Flyers take back one game tonight against the Isles?
Thanks Sean. My gut tells me that the Flyers are probably the right play tonight but I'll sit it out. Betting based on one's gut is not good strategy. The Flyers just don't seem to want it enough for me to get behind them. Talent wise, they're better than the Isles but mentally and physically, Islanders want it more.
Aug 30, 2020 09:55:58
Good morning, I signed into coolbet as recommended. One thing I don’t like is that a lot of my bets have to go through a someone to be placed ( they call it MA). So there annoying. And these are usually a couple hundred dollar parlays too. They cap bets here. Also I Haven’t been able to sign in for the last few hours. Just wondering if you’re able to get in.
I have had a couple of people with same issue today about signing in. It's not just you so give it time and it will be rectified, I'm sure. That they need a "third party" to accept your wager means that they don't want the risk so that's not a terrible thing. They want to honour all wagers but I understand that it can be annoying. The only thing I can suggest is that you have the right to accept their policies or move on. If you don't like their software or procedures, withdrawal your funds and sign up elsewhere. You should never have to tolerate things you do not agree with in this day and age when there are many good options available. Good luck!
Aug 27, 2020 08:25:50
You are doing great with your picks. Was also betting in-play with Tigers and Orioles. Orioles had their chances and could have easily won it. But still ahead. If you are getting plus odds on two teams and bet the same amount on both you will come out ahead if just one of them wins. Looking forward to your picks today. Hopefully they don’t postpone their games 5 minutes before the start time ( giants/ dodgers).
Aug 26, 2020 02:27:49
You did it! I did it! Bet $200 and won $7000 on your picks. Giants win it for us in extras. Exciting game. Thanks Sherwood!!!
Good to hear David. Let's keep it rollling
Aug 25, 2020 22:33:10
I bet the 4 teams you posted today on the money line for $200. Won Boston and Denver. Can we get San Fran and KC? Pays a cool $7000.00
Let's hope so!
Aug 18, 2020 21:12:44
R asked you about sportsbooks, was also considering other options then 365, could you name top five books, I know in the past you suggested one should use multiple sites
Pinnacle, Coolbet, Bet365, SportsInteraction, and 888Sport. 5DImes is also good.
Aug 18, 2020 13:24:16
I think we are going to get burnt by the hot bats of Chicago White Sox again boss. I will play the Tigers and see where the chips fall. But my "gut" is screaming White Sox!!! Is using your "gut" the wrong approach in handicapping. Thanks for taking the time.
LOL, never bet with your gut!
Aug 18, 2020 09:41:43
Thinking of trying another sportsbook. I currently use Bet365. What I like about Bet365 is that it has are early payouts, live betting and they offer early cash outs. Do you know any other sportsbooks that are worth trying out/offer features you like? Thank you
Coolbet has great options and they are reliable and easy to deal with. Cashout options as well. Pinnacle is best for odds but Coolbet is a great second out. Here is the link (copy and paste)
Aug 17, 2020 22:50:20
We did it!!! Played Atlanta in-play for $1200 over several odds ranging from -145 to +600! Bottom of the ninth 9th.... down 3 I knew they would come back!!! Thanks for the play
Aug 17, 2020 19:42:48
Just placed In-play wager on Atlanta to win at +170. Braves down 3-0. Let’s win it!!
Aug 17, 2020 13:58:21
Hi Sherwood, In regard to your mlb Detroit/WhiteSox game break down why doesn't the fact the WhiteSox batters being really "hot" play into your betting analysis? I get your pitching break down, but my instinicts tell me to more be afraid of the HOT bats now of CWS then Detroit bats?? Is that wrong thinking?? Thank you.
It's not wrong at all. Chicago's bats are hot but that is not my approach. Hitting runs hot and cold so I don't worry about that. Gio Gonzalez is a weak pitcher that is overpriced and I have to play the value ands let the chips fall where they may. If you are afraid of Chicago's bats, by all means don't bet somethng you are not comfortable betting.
Aug 14, 2020 13:58:26
I love your Habs pick today/ The Flyers didn't pay great in Game #1 and were lucky to win. Habs come up with a solid game today and get a win. I like this series to go seven games
Aug 13, 2020 16:25:08
Hi, I really like your insight and analysis.....I notice you almost always bet 2 units....Is there ever a situation where you bet more than 2?
Hi Bryan I keep it simple and always play 2 units for record keeping purposes.
Aug 4, 2020 15:45:34
Any PGA golf thoughts coming this week? Your info is always helpful in developing a betting strategy. Thanks in advance
Hi Liam: I will have my full report/preview/wagers posted tomorrow. Thanks for your interest and kind words.
Aug 2, 2020 12:08:58
I think Seattle Lost last night marked as a win
Hmmm, not marked as a win, Steve.
Aug 1, 2020 15:18:48
Welcome back....I know you didn't go anywhere, but it is very good to read you every day again.....Thanks for your hard work and quality insights....and know, that you are appreciated.....
I appreciate that very much, Jeff. Thanks for taking the time to send this! It's great to be back.
Aug 1, 2020 12:29:28
Lundqvist is going to deep 6 the Rangers picks. Has to be deflating for the skaters knowing the better goalie is on the bench.
Aug 1, 2020 12:15:59
Sherwood, did you happen to notice the scores in the NBA last night holy crap!!! I know the NBA didn't play a lot of Defense in the past few years but that was ridiculous !!!you think they're a little scared to get close maybe with the covid scare?, love your articles your write-ups and your pics thanks as always
Ed V
I did notice the games went WAY over the totals but that's a keen observation by you regarding the reason. It's very possible and something to keep an eye on. Thanks for the kind words and I'll be keeping an eye on it too and perhaps sharing your observation in a writeup.
Jul 19, 2020 19:53:13
Thank you Xander. You paid for my new firestick! Bet under 28 on the Jays at -115 ugh. Liking it more now that they are looking for a home.
Mr Hallmark
LOL, fuck that's funny. Thanks for the laugh Mr. H
Jul 10, 2020 19:31:16
With shortened MLB season, is Milwaukee still a pick? Obviously need to adjust for shortened season.
Jon, I'm having a hard look at it and will post it in plenty of time whether it's a "play" or not. Thanks for inquiring...stay tuned.
Jun 28, 2020 10:23:08
I finally figured why Pinnacle Website has not responded well past several months. I was using Edge Browser. When I switched over to Chrome Browser the website has been perfect. I have noticed this on other sites as well. Please pass this on for others that may have struggled with Pinnacle Website. Thanks, DT.
Douglas Thompson
Jun 20, 2020 20:32:38
Your UFC picks are solid. Great job!
Thank you
Jun 20, 2020 16:33:35
I enjoy the SportsInteraction Racebook. Using it daily for a month. Very User Friendly. I do wonder if the tracks get a percentage of the Racebook handle? So the horse people get something out of it. Every dollar helps for the small tracks like Fort Erie. I bet the race on SIA then watch the race from the track website. Next best thing to being there.
Doug Thompson
It is highly unlikely that the books get a percentage Doug but I am glad you're enjoying the experience. Enjoy
Jun 4, 2020 00:21:05
On May 21, I commended your KBO selections, which were 7-4. Since then 0-6. Unbelievable. You still have the number for that truck driving school? I need it. Cheers!
Yeah Scully, don't jinx me anymore. Haha, always good to hear from you. Stay safe.
Jun 2, 2020 23:15:29
Brian, Not sure if you saw the below article as you got a shout out! I posted before but unsure if delivered. I thought you'd like this
Thank you for taking the time to send that Pat. Much appreciated.
Jun 2, 2020 23:11:59
I thought you'd like this: Congrats Brian on being mentioned in Forbes article regarding the UFC event this past weekend
Thank you Pat, much appreciated!
May 27, 2020 21:03:43
Pinnacle Customer Service got back to me. They admitted extreme delay on placing some wagers because of transition to future view and limited IT resources during virus shutdown. Very professional response. Things have improved greatly since Bundesliga and others have kicked in. I deposited and ready to roll again.
Douglas Thompson
May 23, 2020 10:41:29
Sherwood, what is up with Pinnacle Website?? It barely functions for anything but LIVE betting. And has been like this well before the virus.
Douglas Thompson
It is you, not Pinnacle. I check their lines every day and also wager on Korean Baseball almost daily with them. Everything looks fine to me and nobody else has complained either. Can you send me screen shots? You may have to "reset" your bookmark on them. Type in the URL and see if you get something different.
May 21, 2020 17:17:36
공 놀이 or gong nol-i. The English translation, Play Ball. At least there is some bases in Korea. I rarely follow any plays blindly, but am happy to say I have followed your bases selections. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Scully. Stay safe and thanks for taking the time to write.
May 21, 2020 10:37:31
Hey Brian, If the NHL resumes with the 24 team playoff tournament my money will be on the Edmonton Oilers to win it all. Connor McDavid will win multiple cups in this league in the same way that Gretzky, Lemieux and Crosby all did. May as well get started this year. Edmonton is a young team that should handle the grind well and Draisatl is a great #2 option. Not crazy about their goaltending, hopefully Koskinen can carry the load.
May 12, 2020 23:16:46
Well it's been nearly 3 months since I left a message. Ah, times were much simpler back then with March Madness the opening of MLB and NHL/NBA playoffs on the horizon. Pandemics suck! Hope things are treating you all well up in the Great White North. Your posting of Daily Racing Forms is much appreciated. Hey and with the new proposed baseball season the Under for the Brew Crew is a lock. What a call.
Always good to hear from you Scully. There's an old saying that says, "You don't appreciate what you have until it's gone" and that certainly applies to the state of the world right now. I miss sports and writing about it. All of our routines have been changed but better times are coming. When I hear the words, "PLAY BALL" again, it will send a chill down my spine. Stay well my friend and thanks for taking the time to send a friendly message.
Apr 20, 2020 20:44:14
Hi Brian, how about sharing with us your thoughts on the stock market and give us some stock market picks. I remember you gave us Canopy Growth almost 4 years ago when it was in the $3 range. That pick turned into a home run!
Dave Opie
Did you buy any Canopy Growth???! I sold it at $60.00 about a year ago or so..maybe more than a year ago but in that range...Here are some more: Luckin Coffee (LK:NASDAQ) I bought this at 34.00 a share and today it is at around $4.50. It took a massive drop just before teh pandemic his hard because the CEO's were caught "cooking the books" and there is an ongoing inveestigation. It is a risk but if they get back on their feet and I trust they will, there is a great opportunity here. I will put a report in my blog section here for Luckin Coffee and a couple of more. Here you can read my report:
Apr 18, 2020 08:55:09
Thanks for posting the horse statistics and ratings. Under the ultimate pp sections, where does the handicapper indicate their picks?
In these links Jon, there are no handicapper picks. They are just the racing forms.
Apr 6, 2020 13:51:29
Hi Brian, hoping this finds you and your many followers fit and healthy. Any leans on the NFL draft?
barry m
Sorry Barry, that is not my expertise. I really don't follow it closely enough to make any suggestions. Hope you are well too. Stay safe.
Mar 14, 2020 11:58:46
I love that Milwaukee under pick. Unfortunately, it is almost certainly gong to be a push since I think the chances of the minimum number of games being played for an active bet are close to 0.
I think you're right Bob
Mar 14, 2020 06:17:03
Brian will win at anything because Brian is a winner. Remember this.
Thank you my friend. Appreciate the support.
Mar 12, 2020 14:42:32
Hey Sherwood, Look at the bright side... with no sports to bet on you can't get any more picks wrong! Lol. Maybe next year (if the world is still here) you can get back on the winning track. Stay safe my gamble-holic friend!
Mar 10, 2020 18:18:59
Brian,did you have time to reflect on my thoughts about splittting up units on hockey games? Especially monster dogs?Thank you for everything as always
Ed V
Ed, I did, it's a great idea that I encourage you and others to employ. Myself, I rarely win OT games and it's been like that forever, so I just eliminate them. The value makes up for the games I would have won by about 6.7% over the course of a season.
Mar 8, 2020 21:09:47
Brian,The thinking and situational spot for the Red Wings was spot on!!!,its too bad it went to overtime,wouldn't it be better to play like 1 unit on -1/2 in regulation and maybe 1 unit on straight moneyline,thanks for all your expertise,ed
Mar 6, 2020 19:16:08
Brian What is the 3 way bet that I see you make how do you make the bet and what kind of bet is it
The 3-Way bet in the NHL is a regulation bet only. Some books call it a three-way bet and some call it Regulation only. Its's the exact same thing. If the game goes to OT, your bet loses. It simply means your team has to win in regulation time.
Mar 5, 2020 07:42:03
Two great calls in the NHL last night. As always thanks for sharing your hard work.
Feb 22, 2020 11:20:02
it has been awhile since I checked in and said thank you for the information and knowledge your team provides. It just struck me your initials are BS...just made me laugh. And then I started thinking of the potentially smarmy law firm of BS, Finnie & Fuchs. Yeah, it's been a slow morning. Anyway, I trust you gentlemen can see bad humor and laugh at one another if not yourselves. Continued success (that Butler game still has me irritated) to the Team. Cheers to a great end of the month and a successful March Madness. Looking forward to any take you have on Wilder & Fury.
Always good to hear from you Scully. Thanks for the laugh and kind words too! Let's get hot now! Peace and calm BS, Finnie and Fuchs
Feb 21, 2020 00:13:02
Congrats on your 3-0 night in hockey. I always read your hockey write ups and I just want to say thank-you for all the great work you do and for all of your plays.
Thanks for taking the time Tim. Your kind words are greatly appreciated!
Feb 13, 2020 07:41:52
Worth noting USF covered on a pointless layup with 0:01 left. Same thing happened on both wagers (Butler & USF). Almost like it's a normal occurrence with NCAA Basketball! Looking forward to NCAAB hitting high gear and reading your daily posts Sherwood! Thanks for everything!
While that is true, USF was down 2 with 7 secs left. They missed two FT's with 4 seconds left. That they had to even make a bucket at the buzzer to cover is even sicker than the Butler game. We shoulda went an easy 2-0 yesterday but that's life as a sports bettor. One of these years, I'll get all the breaks and win about 400 units. We have to get unlucky as fuck to lose (See the UFC fight on Saturday, Arizona v Leafs, Jackets v Lightning and the list goes on and on for days). Peace out!
Feb 12, 2020 20:39:50
Two offensive rebounds and back-doored by a meaningless 3 at the buzzer. Ridiculous.
Just sickening to lose that one. Butler had that game ciovered the entire game until that buzzer beater.
Feb 6, 2020 01:51:52
I've been a follower for many years and have always enjoyed your content. One thing is a bit disconcerting as of late. Tonight for example you list your NHL play as Chicago -1/2 +250. Yet the lines you list from Pinny, Bet365 , SIA, 888 and 5 Dimes range from +190 to +210. Just doesn't seem fair that you can list a line in your record that's a minimum of 40 cents off the lines you listed. Over time that type of record keeping really inflates your units won. You are the farthest thing from a tout, but that behavior seems at the very least a bit "toutish". I'd love to hear your thoughts. I understand if you don't post this on your site, but feel free to respond to me on twitter if you wish. I follow you. I'm badgerfan. Thanks.
Hi Ralph: As you know, the lines change throughout the day. When I post my pick, that is always the price at the time of the post. I will post the price on Twitter with a screenshot from the sportsbooks to show the price posted on my site. I appreciate the support over the years (I know you're a reasonable guy) and do not for a second take any offense to this. It's a legit question and there are also times when the number is greater than the line I posted or got it at. Watch for prices on Twitter from now on after I post.
Jan 30, 2020 16:32:48
Love the Fire Sticks Bro!! Bought 4 off you for my big family and new house in Barrie in Sept and it’s been almost 6 months!!! Amazing !!!! Thanks again
Jay in Barrie!!
Thanks so much for letting me know Jay. Glad you're enjoying it and if there is anything more I can do, please let me know!
Jan 27, 2020 21:53:19
Two shorties turn a lead into a deficit. Just another way to lose a game when your team has been in control for 50 minutes. # In-game variance
NHL can be frustrating as hell.
Jan 24, 2020 21:36:41
Nice call on Quinnipiac! Quick question..why did you choose to lay 4 1/2 when 4 was available for 2 cents? Thanks again for the winner.
Ralph, at the time of writing, the price we posted was the best available at the time. Often when you or others look at the odds, they have changed, as they often do throughout the day.
Jan 23, 2020 08:09:25
Hi Sherwood, love the golf picks! Curious what DFS refers to? Thank you
Thank you Richard. DFS stand for Daily Fantasy Sports, like on Draft Kings or Fan Duel for instance.
Jan 15, 2020 13:34:12
Keep the NBA picks coming!
Jan 9, 2020 17:23:50
" SportsInteraction N/A" Up now is Habs +140 for a regulation time win: BOL!
Jan 8, 2020 11:13:53
Sherwood, sending you a personal thank you for your daily plays and write-ups. I have learned so much from your insight over the last 7+ years and I owe you some credit for this absurd run I've been on of late, in particular, hockey. Thank you sir from the bottom of my heart! ARice87
I appreciate you saying so AR. Thanks for taking the time to write. Continued success for you!
Jan 6, 2020 11:29:02
8-1 on TB is GREAT value, especially since the 4 books I have checked arent offering more than 5-1. Where do we get 8-1 Tom?
Jan 5, 2020 13:52:57
Interesting that you say Bruins are not that good, I was considering Tampa to win the division at +800, thoughts? The Leafs have to be considered......
Great bet. Bolts are best team for sure and 8-1 is great value.
Jan 4, 2020 18:25:38
Crazy, crazy call Edmonton over Boston. Nice work! 3.25! <a href="">sex shop</a>
<a href="">sex shop</a> TOM
Thanks Tom but it wasn't that crazy. The price on Edmonton was crazy. B's are not that good <a href="">sex shop</a>
Jan 1, 2020 21:28:12
damn it's still scoreless in the 1st but Georgia has half of its D and O not could Georgia's 2nd squad be favored over Baylor?....this is a tough business!
Easy winner
Jan 1, 2020 14:03:30
Auburn looking like Utah last night. No compete.....useless on offense.
Jan 1, 2020 11:33:38
Congrats on another great season. Continued success in 2020. I love reading your analysis for both NHL and NFL. Keep up the great work.
Dec 31, 2019 18:25:38
I feel for you pal. Those were a couple of tough losses earlier today. I’m going with the law of averages here and doubling my investment on the Utes. You are due!
Press when hot, not cold. So sorry we lost that one too Joel. Lety's turn it around today
Dec 31, 2019 12:51:07
As a Wildcats fan, I love your K-state-Navy call! I also love the fact that you are putting four games on the line on the last day of the year which could put you in the black for the year. We all know that very few of us punters ever even break even in any given year, so i'm gonna go ahead and congratulate you on another solid year!
Dec 30, 2019 14:43:04
In game variance back on our side today. Did you see how the half ended for WMU? They have no business being in this game after being outclassed for 27 minutes. Let's do this!
Dec 30, 2019 11:12:08
Yeah sorry about Norm,he has no right to bitch especially since he didnt spend a dime,although Denver shoudve covered i believe a late touchdown screwed that up, the stupid coach should have punted instead of trying to field goal that made all the difference in the world. Thanks for all the great write ups wishing you and yours a happy New Year
Ed V
Thanks Ed.
Dec 29, 2019 23:14:01
Really beginning to question this new approach to hockey. So many of these games seem to go to OT. Tonight could have been a manageable 2-4 instead of a bankroll killing 0-6. I don't recall you taking this approach to hockey in past seasons. The Sabres have won 9 of their past 30 games. They are pretty much a one-man team. There is no good reason to be bullish on their prospects for success going forward. Respectfully, Joel.
I just write what I play Joel but it is frustrating. That said, I'm going to ride it out for the entire year and then reassess it. You can also bet against the Sabres if you so choose to do so but I'll reiterate that the outcome of individual games are all luck based for the most part. Let's turn this around and start getting some bounces. A correction to the good is coming.
Dec 29, 2019 00:34:59
Sherwood I’m done with hockey. It’s a joke. Goaltending plays way too much into the games. Kings with 51 shots and lose. Vancouver was horrible.
It's frustrating Kev but stick with it. The value in these games are tremendous.
Dec 28, 2019 18:54:17
Could not agree more about your write up on the great Oilers, good value on Jets, 3 strong centers and a Vezina winning goalie, they can steal this series shutting down 97 will be tough but they have the weapons
Dec 28, 2019 18:37:19
Thanks for your work all 2019, always enjoying reading your detailed write ups, win or lose. I was with you on the Sooners, but geez I find these bowl games so tough to pick, very tough when they are non conference, anyways you had a good year with CFB, all the best in the new year to you and your family. Love the Rangers tonight, lol!
Dec 27, 2019 09:00:54
Well Happy Holidays, You Thankless Son-of-a-Bitch. You and your damn free information you spew trying to screw everyone. Why would you not be on the Packers on MNF, Cousins sucks? Why take the Hurricanes and the Panthers? All along you simply wanted to drive the lines up so you could come back with LA TECH and EMU. You self serving bastard. All these years you have given winners and now we find out it was all a fraud, a setup to benefit yourself. I never thought I would doubt a Canadien. Unbelievable! Happy Holidays ya Hoser! To a successful 2020 my Friend.
Dec 26, 2019 18:09:13
Your comment on whether I would prefer you not say anything and just let the bet lose is baseless and frankly quite indifferent. You made your pick yesterday on Miami -6 and you shouldn't expect us to check back to see if you have changed your mind. My sports book does not allow me to cancel my ticket based on line movement. So it really doesn't matter if you posted you updated pick or not... unless you are willing to buy my losing ticket that I made on Miami and let me go back and bet on Louisiana. Fondly, Bitter in Toronto
Mark, sorry, I owe you an apology. No sportsbook will allow you to change your bet and I didn't do that either. All i did was buy back the other side to try and save a bet and not cost anyone money. Because I did that, I wanted to share it with readers. Sorry for the confusion.
Dec 26, 2019 17:33:14
Interesting to see the two buy backs posted today. While I'm also a bit salty, as I hadn't checked the site until it was too late in the LA Tech/Miami, I do understand the strategic angle of doing what you did today... With that being said, you have always preached that you bet teams you think will annihilate the posted line, not cover it by 1 or 2 points. This action posted today is confusing and feels like it contradicts the principles you preach daily. Happy holidays! All the best you and your family!
Indeed I bet teams that "I think" will annilhiliate " the opposition, but what I "think" means nothing. There are several criteria we use to determine which side has the most value and is the "right" play. We also preach about how flawed Closing Line Value is" and why it's a losing strategy. In good conscious, I had to inform readers what I was doing instead of letting the bets stand and say nothing. I appreciate your comments and will try to avolid "changing or buying bets back in the future but it is a rare occurence and at times it must be done. Happy holidays to you and your family too Dingle
Dec 26, 2019 14:44:30
Dude.. you can’t post your picks and then the next day write that you want no part of the bet. Such bull shit. So now that I played Miami -6 I have to deposit money into my account to bet the other side? Why don’t you post your picks closer to game time and not change your mind based on line movement after we bet.
Would you rather me not say anything and let the bet lose? I will not post games until game day from now on. I understand your frustration.
Dec 23, 2019 23:03:07
Sherwood... nice analysis of the Monday night football game. You can now add the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th dysfunctional team the Packers have beat in a row.
Dec 23, 2019 13:11:16
Patiently awaiting your College bowl picks
Dec 22, 2019 08:00:07
Sherwood all over the Huskies last night....nice play, sir. Game never in doubt.
Danny Partridge
Dec 21, 2019 10:54:53
Ok Sherwood.... I messed up with Buffalo. I’m counting on you with Washington. Don’t let me down! Win this one and you’ll make me whole again!
Dec 20, 2019 21:07:07
It didn’t help that UB was in search of their first bowl win ever. Coach Liepold had them ready to play. On to the next one. Let’s do this Brian!
Chris G.
Dec 20, 2019 18:36:29
Absolutely no offense to Steven personally, I like his confidence - but I wish I would have seen the comments from him prior to my wager on Charlotte today...I would have backed off it for sure. Buying drinks using money that hasn't come in yet would be the huge warning sign to me! There was maybe some "value" there for sure but guess it proved just because there was some video of kids being excited to hit the beach there's lots more to it than that? Have you been to that Atlantis beach?'d have to have zero pulse to not get excited about that sand and beach location! Cheers. (By the way KEEP UP the great work you do Sherwood, thanks!)
Dec 20, 2019 12:48:18
Hey Sherwood! Thanks for mentioning me in you Bahamas Bowl analyses. I actually live in Thornhill. Anyways... backing up my Charlotte pick with a $600 money line bet at sportsinteraction. You can’t bet on the Bahamas Bowl in the Bahamas. I’ll take my winnings and let it ride on Liberty straight up. Drinks on me!
Dec 18, 2019 08:57:19
Your niche is the obscure. I told a friend about this one (Oral Roberts) and hyperlinked him to the play. He bets 7-8 games a year and bet this site unseen. The nature of how it’s winning has him undoubtedly looking for your next play. AmaZing call here. I’m also in Oklahoma and Canes
Thanks Scott. I dig deep daily.
Dec 16, 2019 11:14:18
I think Stephen is on to something with Charlotte. I don't know much about the 49ers, but I don't think it is a bad idea to fade teams from the MAC this time of year. On the subject of Bowls, I really like to parlay 6 or 7 games at a time but the past couple years I have found myself doing that and ending up on the opposite side of your selection(s) by the time the day of those games arrive. Would you be willing to do a bowl overview where you would indicate your early leans in advance of the games? No need for an expansive write-up, maybe you could just pinpoint the games in the schedule that you pretty much know you'll be going with OR indicate some of the sides you will be avoiding? Any information you could provide would be very, very much appreciated. Happy Holidays!
No promises Joel but I'll do my best. It's really hard to post these ahead of time because line movement is one of our criterion. That said, Charlotte and Liberty are 100% going to make our board as straight up winners.
Dec 15, 2019 19:19:16
Great call on the Cowboys today!!!
Thanks Sean
Dec 15, 2019 13:01:41
Hey Sherwood! I’m playing Charlotte on the money line vs. Buffalo in the Bahamas bowl. These kids from Buffalo never seen the ocean and will be whooping it up and not focusing on the game. I watched the Buffalo news and the players were all excited to see the beach! Just like last year when Toledo lost to FIU... I was at Atlantis Paradise Island and the Toledo squad was swimming in the Ocean the day before the big game!!! I’m sure this will make your board. I’m calling the upset!!!
Steven Learner
Hey, that's great info Steven. Let's fucking go!
Dec 13, 2019 21:53:06
Just coming up on a year since making the decision to take all of Sherwoods picks robotically for $250/bet. Yay for me!. Will continue to do so indefinitely. Sherwood, you are the paragon of integrity and honesty in this business. My sports wagering life would be way worse without you. And that amazon stick you are hooking people up with is the real deal. We are all so goddamn lucky you do what you do. Please keep up the fantastic work, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and know that I'll be refreshing that browser awaiting your picks each day of 2020! P.S. I'm a huge new fan of UFC and am looking forward to seeing your picks tomorrow (and thus who I'm cheering for.) Good luck! Chris Donnelly
Thanks so much Chris. We really appreciate the time you took to send this!
Dec 9, 2019 08:40:50
Do you ever designate a team 'OFF LIMITS' for betting purposes? I refer to the Detroit Red Wings, a constant money pit. How many negative units has this team cost us this season? It must be very frustrating for you to write eloquent analysis of this team, that seemingly never cashes a ticket.
James Hanna
I usually don't but Detroit's goaltending is so bad that we might have to. They were a great bet on Saturday but again, Bernier couldn't stop a puck. It's time to bail on the Dead Things.
Dec 2, 2019 20:23:26
I just wanted to show my appreciation to you by thanking you for what you do. Your angles and analysis is the best in the business. You get it. You look at games soo differently from anyone else. And in my opinion, it's the right approach to take. Keep doing what you do Sherwood! We are very grateful.
Brandon, thanks so much for taking the time to write. Your message made my day. Thank you.
Nov 29, 2019 23:29:07
Nice work Friday on college ball, 3 for 3. My question to you today is about prop bets. You do not go there, and I was wondering why. I am talking about player props not crazy garbage. Your write ups on sides are detailed and must be time consuming but I thought he must check it out No value?
Tom, the reason I don't do prop bets is because of the line margins. In a normal game, one would lay 10 cents or -110 either way. That is a "20 cent line". However, in prop bets, one might spot -170 one way and +120 the other way so that would be a 50 cent line. The margins on prop bets are WAY to large to overcome.
Nov 28, 2019 10:23:07
Hi Sherwood Sorry for the confusion. I was wondering if you can explain the meaning of Betting the closing line . Thanks again
No confusion Steve and you nailed it when you said you bet Seattle +1 and they closed as the favorite. That's beating the closing line. For instance, if you bet Buffalo +7 early in the week in the NFL against Dallas and Buffalo closes at +5½ or lower than the +7 that you bought them at, that would be "beating the closing line". You have Buffalo +7 but they are only +5 today, thus you beat the closing line. It's a strategy tyhat some people employ but one can only use it if one has a great feel for the market and which way the line will move. In our last podcast, we explain why it's a bad or losing strategy.
Nov 28, 2019 08:10:50
I saw your comment on betting the closing line in the Western Michigan game. I am a little confused . Are you betting Michigan and going with the line movement or are you taking Illinois and going against it. It Happened on Sunday in NFL in the eagels Seattle game , Seattle became the favorite . I notice it a lot I'm not NcAA fan. Thanks in advance
That Western Michigan game has already been played. My comment was that beating the closing line resulted in a loss and that it continues to be a weak strategy that many use. Indeed, the price on Seattle rose on Sunday and those that beat the closing line won but there were more games last Sunday under those conditions that lose, Denver, Cleveland, Washington and San Fran for instance.
Nov 26, 2019 12:16:21
Lamar Jackson laying 2-1 for MVP looks like an absolute lock.
barry m
If he stays upright, he's a lock. He's a running QB so one hard hit, misstep or something else and his season could be over in a flash. Not worth the risk at that price in my opinion.
Nov 25, 2019 19:44:35
Longtime follower ,always looking for value I was surprised you didn't bet cfl playoffs I bet wpg ml in all 3 games I was just wondering why but it's what you preach that leads me to these bets day in and day out thanks
Nov 18, 2019 14:42:25
"L.A. Chargers over Kansas City Pinnacle -2½ -109 Bet365 -2½ -110 SportsInteraction -2 -110 5DIMES -2½ -110 888Sport -2½ -110" I'm not sure where the -2.5 lines are coming from. The line is now from 4.5 to 5.5 at various books. And this does not indicate the line ever being 2.5 at Pinnacle:
Sorry, that was just me not updating it. It`s corrected now but do note, that we`re passing on the game
Nov 16, 2019 21:28:55
We all love and respect you mr.Sherwwood...but please for the love of God SToP recommending these pathetic bengals. Every single week you say back the bengals and every single week they get absolutely plastered. When are u going to stop the insanity of backing bengals ? There’s no “value” in back a team that’s as miserable as Cincinnati. Stop the madness please.
David Sheppherd
Nov 10, 2019 12:22:02
Well, 1 out of 2 isn’t too bad for your official Sunday NFL picks. Arizona will win outright and Cincinnati will keep it close. Mark my words.
Nov 10, 2019 11:12:41
Crazy pick on Tulsa i put some money on the moneyline. Your the best!
LL cool JP
Nov 9, 2019 11:30:41
Great analysis and call on the Tulsa game last night. I was so glad to have my thoughts on the game justified and see that it wasn't just my bias as an Alumni. Keep up the great work. (small donation sent)
Nov 5, 2019 11:14:07
Baseball season is a long ways off for sure but I am salivating over the opportunity to fade Chase Anderson pitching in the AL East. His average fastball velocity and low-spin rate will do him no favours next season. Ross Atkins is so far in over his head.
Put that at the top of your notes so you don't forget. After the season, when Yogi Berra was asked what is he going to do all winter long, his response was, "Sit by the window and wait for spring".
Nov 3, 2019 11:23:22
"Detroit +132 (Risking 0 units - To Win: 0.00)" So Detroit is one of your 5 NFL picks today, but the only one of the 5 that is for zero units. So you are not actually betting on Detroit, so only have 4 games you are betting on? Detroit counts as a pick, but not as a bet?
It's been changed, the Lions are a bet. Thanks for pointing it out.
Nov 2, 2019 15:26:38
Hi Sherwood, how do you feel about the Argos winning straight up? Hamilton is resting a bunch of guys and some guys on the argos are looking for jobs next year
It could happen. Their "replacements moved the ball last week and taking 10½ is probably a good bet too.
Nov 1, 2019 11:18:45
Wondering in hindsight if one could have used the same rational "inflated points" for last nights other heavy favorites Baylor and Appalachian state, one of which lost outright?
Mike, that's the challenge. One has to figure out if the points are inflated or not. Just because the spread is -15 or -20, doesn't mean the points are inflated. I looked at last night's two college games and it's a challenge, especialy in college to try to decipeher whether or not the points are inflated or deflated. That's a major criterion for betting any game (value) and it's a great place to start.
Oct 28, 2019 15:41:49
Is there a sportsbook that doesn't turn off live betting on nba games that are very tight late in the game? The one I use just puts the updating dots on until it's not close anymore or the game is over. D M
When you say late in game, you have to be specific. Late in game could be 2 mins to go or 4 mins. BET365 usually leaves it on until there is 1 minute or 90 seconds left.
Oct 27, 2019 13:00:53
calling the Giants and the Jets to both cover AND probably win straight up on the road, wow you are going all out this Sunday! Good luck, Sir!
Oct 24, 2019 17:15:32
This is Ricky Tran. I contact my lawyer. I sue you for defamation of character.
Ricky Tran
Bring it on baby! Wish it were true.
Oct 18, 2019 16:54:31
As a huge Badger fan I wish the Ohio State game was in Madison, but unfortunately it's at OSU.
Oct 17, 2019 18:43:27
"Patrick Mahomes vs Joe Flacco is like Donald Trump vs Bobby Fischer in a game of chess".... Ha! Will be chuckling to myself about that one for a long time. Thanks as always not only for the amazing picks, but also the entertainment! Keep up the great work Sherwood! Chris Donnelly
Oct 14, 2019 15:51:27
Sask only -2.5 -113 at BC? Now up to -3 .5 -104, but still seems way low.
Oct 14, 2019 15:24:07
Sask. -2.5 over BC without Reilly seems way too low. What do you think Brian?
barry m
Very low. That price will be -7 or higher by game time.
Oct 13, 2019 12:12:34
I respect your opinion immensely. I don’t have an opinion on the Jags/Saints game and your early logic on the Jags was awesome. To now take the Saints because everybody is jumping on the Jags doesn’t make much sense to me. The consensus is sometimes right. I would think you would need a much better reason. I’m saying this before the game.
Dan Girdon
Oct 11, 2019 15:17:40
When I read your write ups like Washington the other day and it translates into a win...its more to me than just handicapping or gambli g. I am beginning to appreciate it on a deeper level...very poetic. You are trurly a master at your craft. Nobody and I mean absolutely nobody else has even been close. Your picks are poetry Sherwood. I hope the readers understand and appreciate your greatness.
I apprciate that very much. You made my day. Thank you.
Oct 11, 2019 13:24:38
Dear Ricky Tran, I'll send you $60 for your 10 star Thursday night tout if you go fuck yourself.
barry m
LOL. You always make me laugh.
Oct 10, 2019 18:03:15
I hope you wagered a bit on the pga Houston open this week. Pretty much all of the long shots you love (Gooch, Cook, Straka) are on the top of the leaderboard!
I missed it. DAMN!
Oct 6, 2019 02:40:22
I know you loved the Argos at +8 but look at the bright side they won the 4th quarter 8-7. They are fantastic lol
Oct 6, 2019 00:35:27
I would like to laugh my ass off at your CFL pick, but I cannot because I was right there with you. Toronto played far superior Western teams a lot tougher and deserving better. But this..... my god how can a professional team come out so flat, unprepared and disinterested. Cappers cannot temper this based on recent results. Fire the GM Popp and fire the entire coaching staff NOW. What a disgrace, hire a local high school staff to finish up, unbelievable
Oct 4, 2019 13:02:16
Nice start to the NHL season. Cashed a nice 3 game parlay. Thanks for the work Sherwood.
Oct 3, 2019 16:35:46
When I open 3 way on bet 365 it offers 1st period, 1st period 3-way,first 10 minute and 1st period 3-way. If 1 want to bet tonight’s Ranger game minus a half goal in regulation only what would I bet?
No. Can you email me so I can send you screen shots? Or, when you click on NHL it says: Game Lines, 3-way RIGHT BESIDE GAME LINES. Open If you don't see 3-way, there is something wrong. Try another browser. I checked on my MOBILE in case you were using your phone and it's clear as day on there too.
Oct 3, 2019 13:25:54
Congrats of a first class start to the NFL season. When you recommend betting on an NHL team to lay a half a goal (last nights Vegas game) I can't figure out how to bet it on the Bet365 site. It doesn't show the opportunity to lay half goals. Any suggestions?
It does Bob. It is listed as a THREE-WAY wager. Three-way has three bets...home side, visitor side or tie. It is actually the exact same thing as -½ becauase if game ties in regulation, you lose. It is LISTED UNDER 3-WAY at BET365. This should clear it up but if it does not, please let me know.
Sep 30, 2019 21:53:35
nice take on the Monday night NFL game! Rudolph is 17 of 18 for 133 yards and a TD with no interceptions at half time (10-3 Steelers)! I was gonna put down a C-note on the Bengals but changed up my pick after reading your writeup! So far, so good!
Sep 30, 2019 17:25:37
Any NHL futures in your head this year....? You have the greatest season total picks EVER!! Thanks for all the hard work you put in.... i sent my $$$ in for the NHL again this year.... !!
Thank you. No hockey totals
Sep 28, 2019 22:55:49
For the Survivor pick (Denver), any concerns about them possibly being down 2 cornerbacks (Bryce Callahan out and Kareem Jackson questionable after failing to practice all week)? Hopefully we do well on the NFL selections tomorrow!
Yes, I have a bit of a concern but my wager is in. That said, I still like the Broncs to win. Next man up!
Sep 23, 2019 16:15:04
Tough to fade Cards today. Still fighting for Division Championship. Brewers are hot. Best of luck
Bob L
Sep 23, 2019 13:20:59
Looks like September 23rd, the deficit has been erased and you're back in the black! With around 100 days remaining, till year's end, your loyal readers are looking forward to seeing you continue this epic run.
Sep 20, 2019 14:16:45
Hi Sherwood, how do you feel about the Pirates and Milwaukee. I'm waiting to see Pirates starting lineup.. if they don't have their stiffs in there I think they can win this game.
I never want to take anyone off a game if they like it. Personally, I am not going near the Pirates because of the situation with their closer. Faded them for three days in a row and would've continued today but price on Brewers made me lay off. That doesn't mean they can't win. Of course they can.
Sep 17, 2019 20:31:02
Great call on Pirates Season wins u77.5!!! Thanks Sherwood!!!
You're welcome. Glad it worked out!
Sep 16, 2019 16:14:52
Your break down today is nothing but truth. And you are giving the people universal truths about handicapping. Want another truth ? Browns will dominate them. Win by at least 7 points. Keep up the great work Sherwood. Respect.
Sep 13, 2019 16:19:25
I assume BC Lions -3 is a typo. Should be -5. Also the writeup referred to the Jaguars which should be the RedBlacks?
Yes, it is -5 and thanks for heads up. It's been a long day of typing.
Sep 10, 2019 17:02:44
Hey David, How about taking some of those winnings and throwing a few bucks to Sherwood to lessen the cost of hosting the website. It would be the right karma thing to do to show your appreciation.
LOL, thanks Paul but it's not necessary.
Sep 10, 2019 13:51:40
Will be waiting for your picks on MLB for the last week of regular season and making a special trip to Vegas to bet them. Last year you absolutely crushed it!
Let's hope I can get warm up in baseball. I still trust that I have a great read on teams and starters but it's just not working out this year.
Sep 10, 2019 13:49:10
I also parlayed the Marlin, Rangers and Twins on your Thursday picks for another $5000 payout. Caesars might go bankrupt thanks to you! It was a great Weekend in Vegas!!
Sep 10, 2019 13:44:21
Thanks for going 8 for 9 on NFL picks Sunday. I did take Arizona on the spread instead of money line! Made $15,000 in Vegas on those pics and the two late NCAA football games you also posted. Oh yeah... and last week college ball made me another $5000. I took some pictures of the winning nfl games if you wanna show then on your site :-)
Yes David, email me the pics Great to hear!
Sep 9, 2019 17:14:22
Great work. You are the MASTER.
Thank you. it's a long season but always nice to get off to a good start!
Sep 9, 2019 17:08:36
After backing Bianca at the US Open, I wish I'd mentioned what I did before the Final was played. I futured her to win the Australian Open and Wimbledon.Both odds dropped dramatically after her win. I could cash out the Wimbledon at 2 to 1 right now if I wanted to. Which I don't.. I didn't hedge a cent on my US Open bet. Cheers to anyone who shared in a big payday. D M
Always great to hear when people are cashing tickets. D M, I'm sure lots of folks would like to thank you for suggesting Bianca on this site. Om behalf of them and myself, thank you so much!
Sep 9, 2019 16:31:40
I'm taking liberty with some of the lyrics to The Long Run by the Eagles. People talkin' about you They got nothin' else to do When it comes down you will still come through In he Long Run Ooh I want to tell you it's a Long Run Who is gonna make it? We'll find out in the Long Run Nine out of ten years in the positive I'm betting on you in the Long Run. Keep up the great work Love the firestick!!! Greg
Great to hear Greg and thanks so much
Sep 9, 2019 10:58:20
You really should be on the radio on Sunday mornings. I tuned in to the start of the fan590 program yesterday and the “experts” were all salivating over getting the Falcons at more than a field goal. That was all I needed to hear from them. Thank you for an outstanding Week 1!
Thank you Joel. I love that story!
Sep 8, 2019 23:57:03
Great start once again for this season's NFL! Looking forward to another season of winning and hopefully a strong and positive end of the year run for all of us! - APB
I appreciate that AFB. Thanks for writing
Sep 8, 2019 09:41:31
What a nice little Saturday! The YTD total deficit is being chipped away beautifully, and all to create some positive momentum into the NFL opening weekend. As always, looking forward to today's writeups and seeing what makes your board in the NFL. Best of Luck!
Seriously.., I so appreciate the positively and encouragement that you have constantly brought to this site over the years. It makes a difference and it's refreshing too. Thank you friend.
Sep 6, 2019 16:18:19
I'm not going to pretend I am a skilled handicapper, I'm not...but I love your 3 team true odds parlays. Do you think a simpleton like me could look at the boards daily and create 1-3 sets of parlays like this and be a profitable bettor? I've been shadow betting them and have been profitable so far. Thanks
You absolutely could Brian. It is a great way to wager and don't be afraid to mix and match sports, thus including money line wagers in the NBA, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB and NHL. Good luck and let me know in a oouple of months how you're making out.
Sep 4, 2019 04:59:11
In NFL with overwhelming focus on spreads, could moneylines be overlooked and offer value? Second, does a statistical relationship exist between the two? Thank you in advance.
Murray Schwann
I'm not sure about a statistical analysis but there is great value on money line underdogs to be sure. For instance, a 3-point spread on the home side usually in +150 range BUT a 7-point underdog is in the +250 range or even higher if the underdog is also the road team. That's one score Murray while a 6-point dog or even 6½ is in the +230 range. One score underdogs win frequently and always offer up great value but most people want the insurance of taking back points instead. Money lines have always been overlooked in football and basketball. Win some money friend!
Sep 3, 2019 19:09:45
opened a pinnacle account. but do not know how to deposit and withdraw.
AJ: If you are in Future View, there is a drop down menu where your username is (top right)'s a number like AJ52771. In drop down menu, you will see withdraw and deposit. If you are using Classic View, there are three tabs on front page in top left that say "betting Menu" and beside it there is Deposit/Withdraw
Sep 3, 2019 17:59:17
To the cartoon character that consistently accuses of a lack of transparency, I say unto you, your remarks are ludicrous. Sherwood is a gem. He is an honest man in a very dishonest business, he educates, and he wins, he is what you always hope for and then some. Keep up the good work, my friend!
Narrator K
I appreciate that very much.
Sep 3, 2019 15:45:36
I hit Royals +1.5 against Fiers last week. He definitely obtains results better than his skills. I actually liked betting him as a dog in the past. Now one thing about his skills worth noting I think is that he does have a good curveball and he uses it effectively. I think I saw during the Yankee start his curve has one of the larger drops in MLB and I think hitters only hitting .165 against that pitch. He is just one hit away at times from damage but he is the type of guy he seems gritty, experienced, he does have a no hitter in his career and he might have enough weapons to hang in. I liked him as a dog and with the A's especially he's in a good position. He is a good pitcher for their identity. But I have no problems betting against him. Good luck.
Sep 3, 2019 10:32:53
0-3 Saturday Sept 1 not included in record keeping. A losing day where I guess you just got busy again. Funny how that never occurs on a rare winning day. If it did I would be sure to let you know so you do not penalize yourself. As a public site free or not you have a responsibility to present accurate records or you should simply not display them at all.
Are you a fucking idiot? This is what you are concerned about today? For 20 years I have kept nothing but accurate records and of the 1000's and 1000's of readers that visit this site, you are the only one that has ever accused me of "not keeping proper records". Idiot, I honestly feel sorry for your partner or kids if you have either because you are among the most anal individuals on the planet and probably impossible to deal with on a daily basis. Get a fucking life, idiot and maybe show your name next time to so I can put in on Twitter and show everyone what kind of 1 in a million fucking idiots are lurking out there.
Sep 3, 2019 07:49:26
Thanks to DM's picking Bianca Andesscu to win US Open. I got a juicy 16-1 and can now hedge to lock up a very nice profit.
barry m
That is awesome Barry! Hopefully he and others made a few on your Bears call a couple weeks back too over the Colts!
Sep 1, 2019 11:00:49
Your breakdowns are required daily reading for me. Please keep doing what you are doing! I do have one question. Is Incarnate Word a Seminary? Until yesterday I had never heard of the school. Sounds like they belong in the same conference as Oral Roberts. Happy Labour Day and good luck with all of your selections.
I appreciate that very much Stuart and yes, it is a Seminary per se but conferences are more or less regionally structured otherwise they likely would be with Oral Roberts and BYU for that matter. Good luck with your selections too!
Aug 31, 2019 18:36:46
CFL Labour day games out west, logic tells me both games under, history tells me over, wondering if you have any insights.
Tom, past results from years ago mean absolutely zilch to me. Like always, we are looking for value and in that regard, we prefer sides as opposed to totals.
Aug 29, 2019 18:47:33
Hi Sherwood, I enjoy your site and thank you your insight. I've noticed your baseball record this year isn't as good as previous years. My questions is why are you picking teams to win by 2?
Jimmy, it's because I refuse to spot a price in baseball and therefore take the better value by spotting an extra half run. I always have played it this way.
Aug 23, 2019 14:11:27
Sounds like colts are shutting down. Bears plus 2- looks appealing.
barry m
Aug 20, 2019 18:10:14
Can't wait for college football to start Brian. Hope you and Matt put your heads together and give us some great picks this season.
Aug 20, 2019 17:27:05
Appreciate and agree with the falcons call, although my book has it at 9 with heavy vig on the under so waiting to pull the trigger. Have you looked at the Lions under 6.5 +115? Seems incredibly high given there’s a real possibility they start 0-6 and really only see 2-3 games tops where they will be comfortable favorites. Thoughts?
Mike, Sorry for getting back so late, as this one skipped over me but I agree with you 100%. However, my partner, Matt Finnie talked me out of it, as he says that Detroit is an under the radar team that everyone is shitting on. I'm with you, Matt Finnie is not.
Aug 20, 2019 13:39:47
Hi. I know you don't cover tennis but Bianca Andreescu to win the US Open at 14-1 is to me a must bet and incredibly great value.
Thanks for sharing that!
Aug 20, 2019 11:11:05
Don't blink now kids...Sherwoord is heating up...
Sammy the Bull
Long swim back but gotta stick with it!
Aug 19, 2019 14:29:22
Sherwood your MMA pick streak is insane. They are mostly at +++money too. What’s the streak at? I know it’s been a tough year but you will end strong. MMA King
Thanks Kev. We are now 8 in a row and hoping to keep it going. Much credit to my UFC main consultant, Matt Finnie.
Aug 12, 2019 15:45:12
Some internet know-it-all vs Sherwood. Count me in...I'm on the Nats.
Aug 12, 2019 12:02:19
Hey Sherwood I think your picks are limp and soft. I don't agree with your Washington call. Underlay nothing Reds all day long. Cincinnati Reds win.
Mike Adams
Aug 10, 2019 16:31:42
Is your listed record for 9 of 10 winning seasons for all sports or one specific sport? Thanks, Tim
It is for all sports. However, it is not individual seasons for each sport, as our calendar year goes from Jan 1 to Dec 31 and the yearly record is updated every Jan 1. That lands right in the middle of the NHL and NBA seasons for instance.
Aug 10, 2019 13:49:37
BET365 voided all bets
barry m
Aug 10, 2019 11:12:37
do you know how the books treated the saskatchewan-montreal cfl game . did the bets count for the game and second bets? thank you i read you every day
bill q
All bets were voided.
Aug 5, 2019 12:59:34
Hi, I'm not buying into your Detroit pinnicale theory. White Sox just swept the Phillies and now we get their ACE vs arguably the worst team in the MLB. I'm taking the bait. Hook, line and sinker!!!! WHITE SOX!!!!!
Mike Adams
Aug 4, 2019 18:18:40
Love the free insights and betting knowledge you provide. Thank you. Just wanted to respectfully say it boggles my mind how you and other expert handicappers keep get clubbed over the head betting against this Yankees line up? Are u seriously recommending us to stand infront of this freight train again ? How many more clubbings over the head before we say enough? Insananity. I'm not getting behind you on that. Thx
Mike Adams
Jul 31, 2019 23:46:24
See you going out early for the value on CFL, not seeing it with qb problems in both Toronto and Ottawa, but wish you the best old friend. Love Edmonton at pick em, Calgary is beatup and getting this line based on reputation
Valid points.
Jul 31, 2019 20:18:58
Tell God I'll book his action.
Barry M
That made me laugh. Man, I love you guys.
Jul 31, 2019 10:34:51
Braves ML, Yankees ML, Phillies ML, St. Louis ML, Minnesota ML, Dodgers ML, KC ML, Mets ML, Oakland ML, LA Angles ML I am going to put those all in one Parlay and drop the hammer...... Because GOD told me to. Enjoy 555 Gods picks ...thanks Sherwood
God's Picks...
Jul 25, 2019 03:14:57
I know you have been around the block more than few times, otherwise you would not have the cojones to post what you do each day.. You know better than anyone, do not let an idiot call you out and then feel compelled to respond. What a Jackass. It's all good. Focus upon the 99% who apreciate what you and your team do.
Scully, thank-you. Those are wise words that I will copy and paste into my word document that I use every day to write these games up. I will refer back to it whenever "some idiot" posts something that is not worth responding to. The point of posting it was to show folks that I don't just post all the kind messages and that I can take the heat. That said, you are 100% right that they do not deserve the space, not time. Thanks for taking the time to write. I really do appreciate it.
Jul 24, 2019 08:13:02
Dogs were barking all over the MLB last night. I think the market correction you have been anticipating could be starting.
Jul 21, 2019 10:50:11
Ho Hum a loss on your CFL play from the 19th not recorded YET in record. Must have been another break. Does well for your credibility.
Joe Canto
Really Joe? Really? that's all you have to do? Look dude, sorry if your mom didn't pack you a lunch when you were in school but being a troll doesn't accomplish much. That's the best you can do? Credibility? I have more in my pinky then you have in your entire body and this is the last time you get any space here. I just wanted to show everyone that losers and trolls still exist. Amusing. Like every other troll that has come on here over the years, you'll disappear too when you;re being ignored. Again, sorry your mom didn't pack you a lunch. Now go find something to do little Joey.
Jul 14, 2019 20:00:26
Hey Sherwood great golf picks this weekend. Hope you know who the “Fu....k”. FRITTELLI is now. Lol keep your head up. But boy was that funny.
Jul 14, 2019 18:05:25
Dylan Fritelli must have taped your write up on the inside of his locker door. One bogey all week. Great way to earn your first tour win.
Jul 13, 2019 18:58:00
Only in the CFL hey Brian. I think we deserved one.
Jul 11, 2019 05:52:57
Another 2 losses from last Sunday NOT included in your record. Oh wait your record is not that important and not indictive of your results. Yet you promote how many years you are profitable since starting the site. So I guess when it is supposedly good the record is relevant when bad not so much. Value is value and that is the search and objective but a successful handicapper turns their value plays into profits over the long haul while constantly beating the closing line which you rarely accomplish doing your readers a disservice.
Joe Canto
Not included? Seriously? Maybe not updated but definitely included, as they all are. There were no games the last three days and it's really the only 3 days of the year that I get a break so excuse me if they were not updated. Secondly, I said the results day-to-day, week-to-week, month to month are not relevant because of peaks and valleys. What I did last night matters not but what I have done over the years does. Constantly beating the closing line? That's funny. If you're constantly looking to beat the closing line, you're Sponge Bob Square Pants and getting murdered. When I make a bet that beats the closing line, I know I'm in trouble. I gave out Argos +13½ two weeks ago and it closed at +10. Argos lost by 31. I can give a million other examples of beating the closing line and losing badly and it's something I discuss in my podcasts. Finally, this site is free. A disservice? You need a reality check.
Jul 9, 2019 16:51:39
I respect the fact you took time out of your day to respond to that idiot. You can tell the difference from those that are new to this site and the regulars. I have learned a ton from you over the years and I have nothing but great things to say. I hope you keep this going for many many years to come. It's funny too because if people actually looked into how you approach each wager they would know that the stats you post on here arent always the result in your accounts. How many picks have turned up a loss from start to finish differs massively to the games in which you bought out of liability on the inplay variance or free rolled or guaranteed yourself a profit. So many times you had to officially mark the score as a loss on here to stay true to yourself but really I'm betting you actually won. Those numbers add up big time and that's one of the many strategies I have learned from you. I also may not agree on everything but what we can always agree on is were looking for the same thing and that is value. Not to trying to win the big bucks overnight. Keep up the good work my man! Eric
Eric, thanks so much for such a positive and smart message. You're 100% right about the results. LIVE betting has increased our opportunities and it's something I absolutely utilize. Matt and I discuss it extensively in many of our podcasts. All those 9th inning losses were losses on my record but not in my pocket. Also, there is the 4-run lead that I/we got paid on at BET365, a great edge to the player. The results on this site are not as important as the strategies put forward. Eric, it is because of people like yourself that makes this site enjoyable to do and keeps me highly motivated. I truly appreciate the time you took to write this. Peace.
Jul 8, 2019 21:44:16
Josh I pay for my now 4 months in Mazatlán every year through what I have learned from Sherwood on sports betting. It's about getting value on your wagers. Over the long haul that's how you will make money. I don't always agree or bet on his selections but I respect his approach and opinion. In fact a lot of times I will bet the 5 inning line on his selections if the number is right. Bullpens today are horrid! It's like horses if the horse you like is 6/5 and he should be 4/1 you pass there is no value. Sherwood great timing I'm leaving for San Diego tomorrow and guess what showed up today? Going to try it out in California. Thanks and keep up the great work!!!!!
This is a smart response Greg and I appreciate it very much. It's the strategies that are important and not the results from day to day. Does it matter what I did last night? Of course not. It's how you do over your lifetime that matters and not a day, week, a month or a year. Enjoy everything Josh, play safe and again, thanks so much for the support and for the reply.
Jul 7, 2019 12:01:00
I would love to see Josh put his money where his mouth is. To spout off on a Sunday morning, after he likely had a rough day Saturday, and challenge all comers to a bet he would have a massive cushion on, at what...even odds Joshy? Bold position! Take on Sherwood's proposal with the second portion of the bet. You are still getting a great ROI with undeserving/ridiculous odds on part one... I'll go ahead and suggest that you don't have the stones to back up such an 'in the moment' comment. Welcome to though!
Thanks Dingle for the support. Incidentally, it's been about 5 days and I haven't heard a thing back from Josh.
Jul 7, 2019 06:58:34
I read in here all the time about how good your picks have been and how your always going to end up in the positive. I want to call all those people who have drank the cool aid and use your terminology on what’s the real play for you having a positive year as we are seven months into it and all I see is negative numbers since the beginning. Put your money where your mouth is and I’ll take anyone’s bet that old Sherwood will not be in the plus. Anyone who takes thinks that is a fool.
First off, let me say that we have been in the black in 13 of the 15 years we have been posting on-line. Secondly, we are providing strategies and the right way to approach sports-betting. We have no control over the results. For instance, if a kicker misses a convert to cost us a cover, was that a bad pick? If a baseball player drops a lazy foul-ball, is it our fault? In-game variance decides games, not us, so your observations or comments are regarding results are unreasonable. We have no control over RESULTS. Now for your bet.....with 5 months to go, I'll happily take you on, however, we're going to have to find a third party to hold the money. How about we send the money to Randall the Handle to hold and pay out. Get in touch with me by email and we'll set it up but I will not make this bet unless it's two-fold. $500.00 that I end up in the plus, and $500 that I show a profit from the first day that this wager becomes official to the last day of 2019? How about it old friend?
Jul 5, 2019 20:43:53
Sherwood, what weight do u place on batting power in your handicapping? Seems to me like you always favour pitching over power? For example Yankees line up is very very scary? The are pounding TB?? I think Yankees power trumps what ever small flaws their starting pitcher may or may not have ?? Is this a wrong way of handicapping? Never betting against Yankees as long as they are hitting like this. POWERFUL!
Good points and I usually do not bet against the Yanks because they win so often but my play was more a situational one. They are indeed POWERFUL!
Jul 2, 2019 13:41:12
Happy Belated Canada Day Good Sir! I trust you enjoyed. It goes without saying about the insight and information sharing you provide everyday,however, the Big winner you just provided about the Firestick offer...Well Done. A Votre Sante!
Jun 28, 2019 16:16:55
Sask. down to 10.Nice call Brian.
barry m
Jun 26, 2019 12:42:48
Nice work Sherwood. One thing I would like to add Mr Yu Dervish has NEVER ever won in Chicago. NEVER. Keep that in the back of your mind. Good luck.
Abe Hajar
Jun 22, 2019 21:09:23
Reading comments from the last few weeks, not sure why some are concerned. Any constant bettor knows there will be peaks and valleys, no one is invincible from it. If they tell you different, bullshit. Sherwood will recover any most likely soon. And I will keep following
I appreciate that Tom. It's a grind and a true marathon.
Jun 22, 2019 18:22:55
Please stop the Madness ! Toronto couldn't beat our high school team. Value was on Boston !
Value on Boston? Brian Johnson had never been favored in this range before in his career. Do you even understand value? BTW, this message came in when Boston was up early so this dude figured Boston was a lock. How about writing before the game starts and not in the fourth inning? Incidentally, Jays came back and won.
Jun 20, 2019 14:05:30
Looking for value, Sask-Ott. opened at 49- is down to 44.
barry m
Such a good call Barry. One of the best bets of the year that paid off quickly. Hope some readers saw it and thanks for sending it.
Jun 16, 2019 12:15:32
I enjoy using his write-ups and picks as a tool in my capping. But as of late your write-ups just don't have logic to them. Also your money management is awful. Have you ever hear of 2% of your bankroll to control your losses when your cold, and increase them when your hot ! Just a few pointers from a old timer with success.
Billy Bats
Jun 15, 2019 17:04:40
Sherwood has been in the positive for 9 out of 10 seasons. Some people will never grasp the concept of variance and/or math no matter how many times you explain it. There will be many months of negative return over that time. Readers: be like Kawhi: don't get too high or too low. In the end, Sherwood will have the results! Keep up the outstanding work Sir!
Chris Donnelly
Jun 15, 2019 12:50:04
I think if anyone here is blindly tailing, you're making a mistake. I really only bet heavy on cfb, and come here after my research is done to see what sherwood has to say, if anything, on the games I like. His logic, angles and pursuit of value is what I like best. This site has taught me so much about gambling, the alt run line angle at coors has been good for the most part, the golf logic is spot on and all of the other wagering tidbits offered up over the years have proven useful. Keep up the good work, Sherwood. May your units be good to you
smooth jimmy apollo
This is a smart message. The results don't matter for the most part because the education is more valuable and it is up to each individual to make decisions, just like you pointed out in this message. I really appreciate the time you took to send this when things are going a little rough right now. Thanks Smooth Jimmy and may your units be good to you too. Again, I THANK YOU SO MUCH for a positive and smart post.
Jun 15, 2019 00:04:58
His write-ups make no sense anymore, I will be fading him the rest of year.
Billy Bats
Let me know how that works out.
Jun 14, 2019 11:42:29
I agree Billy... Sherwood needs a break
Kevin Patel
Nothing I can do about results. I play value and let the chips fall where they may.
Jun 13, 2019 09:24:37
Time to take a break on your baseball
Billy Bats
Jun 6, 2019 08:25:24
Sometimes we cappers get caught up in our own interpretation of reality. But sometimes it is US who is distorted. Pundits spoke truth about GS injuries. You want to retract your snubb of Toronto oh Toronto boy.?
Bernie Thomas
Jun 4, 2019 11:02:05
On Friday May 31st you went 0-4 in MLB it was left off of your record. I thought you would like to know
Joe canto
Updated. Thanks for heads up.
Jun 1, 2019 17:09:14
Hey, if we can't play these ' correlated parlays', would you recommend us playing them with 2 separate bets? Or perhaps just one of them? Or does the parlay have some extra loaded value which makes them your play?
Absolutely not. They are value only because of the "correlation".
May 30, 2019 10:27:38
Thank you for telling us about all those scammers out there. Your honesty is appreciated. Keep up the great work.
May 29, 2019 13:53:05
Brian: Do you really think it's fair to include these 888 parlays in your overall record since the majority of us cannot play them ? I believe most of your followers are US residents? You have the advantage of living in a free country! Perhaps take them out of your main record and keep a side record just for the parlays ?
Doug from ct
I will do that beginning tomorrow. I'll keep a side record.
May 29, 2019 09:47:31
I live in Las Vegas, and there is NO sports book that allows coralated parlays.
Exactly true
May 28, 2019 14:51:09
Not sure if you're aware yet but I'm curious if you're going to have a write up on the Twins' call up today, Devin Smeltzer. From everything I've gathered this guy appears to be a stud, I'd like to see your input on him before deciding whether to fade Davies tonight. Perez is still listed as the starter on some apps but it's well known hes been pushed back and Smeltzer will start tonight or at least take over for an opener if they go that route. Keep up the good work as always. Thanks.
Eric, I am aware and absolutely endorse him as a small dog at home against Davies. You are spot on. Twinkies a steal. Good luck!
May 28, 2019 11:50:58
I know what you mean by saying, "do you have the guts to take the Raptors in Game 1?" The Warriors are 18-1 SU in Game 1s of a playoff series and have won 12 straight series openers. I may take the Rap in the first half, but expect GS take shake off the rust by the end of the game.
I'm just playing the line Greg and it says to me that Raps are going to win Game 1 and then probably lose 4 straight afterward.
May 27, 2019 16:53:45
No particular reason for posting, but I just want to thank you for your hard work, and continuous and consistent solid picks. Every single day you analyze games and make very impressive and intelligent picks....I want you to know I read them every day, and appreciate them greatly.....I am sure everybody else does, though you probably get mostly negative feedback from the few 'trolls' out there....Keep up the great work
Thanks so much Jeff for taking the time to write and for the kind words. We really appreciate it a lot.
May 27, 2019 14:59:36
The NBA finals don’t start until May 30th. The Stanley Cup final starts tonight.
Jack E
May 22, 2019 10:53:16
That’s pretty clever, but doesn’t have the same cache as Thornton going out on top against his former mates. I was pretty close to calling that storyline, considering I did following Round 1. But close doesn’t cut it so I’ll eat crow. I think Boston will win, but will wait until the series shifts back to St Louis to wager, if I do at all.
Chris G.
Just kidding with you Chris. I appreciate the support very much and only wish you the best of luck. We're both out to beat the books and I wish you the very best in doing so. Thanks again for all the support and correspondence over the years. Peace brother.
May 22, 2019 07:27:24
Man, you weren’t kidding about Martin Jones. What a sieve. It’s a shame the Sharks couldn’t complete their roster with a competent goalie. Their Cup window is closed.
Chris G.
Yeah, the Sharks luck ran out big time. They had no business beating Vegas. Your Sharks "fate" angle failed. You have another angle for the Final? How about "the Bobby Orr flying through the air revenge angle" and take the Blues?
May 12, 2019 17:15:45
Just so there's no confusion it's SLOpitch lol
I'm not sure what that means.
May 11, 2019 11:44:04
Hey Dingle - 3 out of 4 ain't bad! Especially with the Sharks getting most of my attention (and my money). If you can get the better team (by 11 points), and home ice advantage, at a series price of -150 or less, that is VALUE. And, like I predicted earlier this post-season, we are trending to a Jumbo Joe Thornton Cup. Some things are just fated in the world of sports. Having said this, Sherwood, you are pretty good at what you do and I echo the sentiment that we all appreciate the work that you put it. (even if I don't agree with the approach to betting hockey). Best of luck on the diamond this summer!
Chris G.
We all have the same goal so the best thing we can do is share information and try and win. Chris, you're a passionate sports fan and I appreciate the input but we're never going to agree on approach. You have emotional investments in teams in players and I do not. There is no such thing as "fated" but if you want to believe that, I'm not going to sway you. If the Sharks win the Cup, it'll be because they get good goaltending and good bounces, although they are a great team, just like Boston is among others. Let's just beat the books and work together. I appreciate the kind words too. Peace brother.
May 4, 2019 11:57:30
I'm just a small Pro line player but really appreciate your input every day. You are the first and the main site I go to each day . Sent a few $ to thank.
I really appreciate that Slop. Thanks so much. It will go towards helping to offset costs.
Apr 28, 2019 09:12:25
By the way: Colorado won 'more often' then San Jose did in the first round... The basic idea that placing smart money on the team that won 'more often' in the first round is more ridiculous then the certain individuals ability to perform the simplest of Math operations
Apr 28, 2019 09:01:51
To wrap up the lovely Chris G. soft positions: A) Shocked to see he is a Wiley veteran with 45 years of experience viewing sports...definitely comes across as a younger fella dipping his toes into gambling waters for the first time B) Based on the 2 comments, our friend Chris has posted a position on the Isles (-125), Sharks (-140), Bruins AFTER game 1 (-300ish), and Blues after game 1(-240ish). This means you need to go 3-1 for a minimal profit... It's hard to beat at a dead horse(horrific saying), but preaching value and playing the numbers appropriately is the name of the game, and the reason Sherwood can do this for a living. As colorful as the ChrisG comments are, it is concerning to see someone that frequents the site, not understanding the profitable concept, and just making blind predictions. I wish we could all be winners always, but there wouldn't be a market to play, without the people that drive it! Thanks for years of profits Sherwood!
Thanks Dingle. Sometimes I get tired of beating a dead horse so it was nice to see someone else chip in. Dude did the same thing last year in the playoffs too when he predicted "Nashville couldn't lose to Winnipeg" He also ends a lot of his posts by saying, It really is as simple as that" when referring to basic garbage. Very stubborn individual that refuses to embrace the winning strategies we have presented. Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Apr 26, 2019 17:36:08
With all due respect, I just don't see much value in your two series plays. You have the teams that won less often, and have to play 4 of 7 on the road, at prices that aren't much higher than even money. I care more about which team wins on the scoreboard more often than which team wins the advanced stat battles. I did not post my opinion on the series that started last night because I didn't have one. Now that I have seen the teams play each other, I think I can say with some certainty that Dallas is not going to beat Jordan Binnington 4 out of 6 nights and the Jackets will spend their remaining nights chasing around a far superior Bruins outfit. I don't need Corsi to draw those conclusions. Just my own two eyes, and 45 years of experience watching the game. It's really as simple as that.
Chris G.
Have it your way Chris. I'm not here to argue about which teams are better or worse. These playoff games outcomes are ALL luck-driven unless it's a three-goal or more victory but you go ahead and try predicting outcomes. Lemme know how it works out.
Apr 26, 2019 14:29:34
Thanks for everything you do buddy. Cheers
Pigeon: Thanks so much for your generous contribution. I appreciate it greatly and it will go towards the upkeep of the site. THANK you!
Apr 26, 2019 06:30:28
The Sharks are a steal at -132 in the series. Their victory over a deep and talented Vegas team was more impressive than Colorado's win over the fraudulent Flames. I also like the Islanders to continue their magical run and -120 is not a lot to lay on them. Like you have been saying for three years, the Capitals are not that good a team, and yet they gave Carolina all they could handle. Chalk rules in round 2. I see a Jumbo Joe Thornton Cup with the Sharks taking out the Bruins as a fitting conclusion to the bearded one's career.
Chris G.
You seriously still don't get it. There you go predicting outcomes again and making rationalizations to back them up. There is no value in Sharks whatsoever and there is less on the Islanders. Flames are now a fraud? Not once during the reg season did you write in and suggest that. I would love to book your action Chris. There is no chance you are a winning sports bettor and you continue to make the same mistakes. I wish you nothing but good things but more importantly, I wish you would embrace our philosophies and start winning. Peace out.
Apr 25, 2019 08:41:48
remember how charley brown always started a new football season . he would run up excitedly to kick the ball only to have little lucy pull it away at the last second and poor charley brown falls flat on his back. the toronto maple leafs are the charley browns of the nhl and the boston bruins are little lucy snatching away toronto victory hopes in every game seven.surely some bettors have latched on to this scenario and are cashing in. sadly i am not one of them.
james hanna
Leafs are taking a lot of heat these days.
Apr 19, 2019 17:01:05
Keep an eye out for a nominal donation I made today. Thanks again for everything.
I appreciate that very much Ralph. Thank you.
Apr 18, 2019 10:45:32
what is the reg. nhl season worth . seems like some players minds are on the golf course or a beach holiday makes handicapping games extremely difficult
james hannaw
Apr 16, 2019 16:18:15
I like your Tampa Bay future strategy down 3-0. I did the same with Carolina yesterday down 2-0 and at +500. Hoping they can win one more at home and should have a nice hedge opportunity. Nice to see the analytics finally play out right for them
Apr 15, 2019 12:52:30
Finally made a small donation. This is great value @ about $2.00 a month. Highly informative info. Hopefully will make a bigger donation on my next cash out. Thanks for all your hard work.
Patrick Smith
Patrick, I really appreciate that a lot. Thanks so much.
Apr 13, 2019 15:32:21
Mcilhenny should be playing ahead of Mrazek.
Apr 9, 2019 11:46:48
As always the content on here at no charge is amazing. Really nothing else like it anywhere imo. Cant wait to see your Masters picks. I assume, given the week to week volatility of golf ( although there are definitely players who thrive at Augusta perhaps more than any other course) is your betting strategy to wait until at least after cut and place bets from there?
Apr 8, 2019 16:46:16
I never loved the Coors Field angle but to the extent you had undeniable success I do think it was because as you wrote "anybody can blow up there and it matters not whose pitching". I don't know if it would work long term but I did at least resonate with that. The -1.5 angle to me was always neutral. Every game is just priced from the moneyline and the total. Coors Field games of course have fewer one run games but it is priced rght into the runline anyway. You can see games with a total of 8 have higher runline payouts for the same moneyline dog compared to a game with a total of 12. If you like the underdog to me I would play it with the over if the dog is on the road or parlay it to the under with the home team if the home team is the dog. Slightly correlated subsets. Tonight looks like a pure handicapping call. Good luck.
Thank You Sceeter. You're obviously well-versed in sportsbetting and you make more smart points. Thanks for sharing. That said, one cannot 'parlay" run line and total, -1½ and over for instance, because it is correlated and the books don't allow it anymore like they did a few years back. Good luck to you too. You always have something good to share. Peace.
Apr 8, 2019 14:08:14
All the analytics are and fancy and fun but sometimes in handicapping you have to go with your gut (especially if it's as big as mine) and my gut says Texas Tech. My gut was wrong with my ex but I will still trust it here. Texas Tech out right is my call.
Teddy Godwin
Duly noted.
Apr 2, 2019 13:54:52
Hello Sherwood, do you have an opinion on betting a top rated golfer playing the week before a major? Are they interested on wining or just trying to get their game in shape for the following week?
Tough call Roland and a great question. Of course they try and want to win but subconsciously, I have to believe that they don't want to peak a week too early and will perhaps try different things or even look to work more on their weaknesses. Personally, I don't bet anyone this week going to the Masters next week.
Mar 31, 2019 19:58:25
Despite the results today, you had yourself a pretty good NCAA tournament, good job.
Thanks man.
Mar 31, 2019 14:26:14
Long time reader first time posting truly respect all your insights thank you I respectfully completely disagree with your Duke call there is absolutely zero chance Michigan State loses this game thank you
Houssama Cuszebra
You nailed it
Mar 31, 2019 12:38:39
I work in the mutual fund industry: Your buy low and sell high philosphy will stand the test of time. No matter how much we all hear that cliche, our instincts are always pushing us the opposite way (buy high and sell low!) and challenging our discipline. You are a consistent voice of reason in a crazy world my friend. Keep up the great work!
Chris Donnelly
Thanks so much Chris. Truly.
Mar 29, 2019 16:04:52
I saw the stat of the week by the consulting firm (Baseball Info Systems) that puts out stats such as defensive runs saved and interestingly they actually had Estrada as one of the more unlucky pitchers the past 2 seasons. I have to admit the A's aren't the organization that I think makes too many poor investments and they are king of analytics. . I don't think winning or losing one game matters but here you have the consultants and the A's have a different opinion of Estrada.
You make good points about the A's being a smart organization. Let's see what happens. Regardless, it is good food for thought Sceeter. Best of luck
Mar 27, 2019 23:19:09
Two great call in college hoops on Wednesday. As always thanks for sharing the fruits of your labor.
The pleasure is all mine Ralph. So glad you cashed!
Mar 27, 2019 21:16:30
Brian, Came across the strangest middle I've ever seen. After Seattle won both their games in Tokyo one of my sights had them still up on a season total bet of 71.5. Better yet another site had them at 74.5. Just on principal I bet risking $10 to win $200. I hope they win 72,73 or 74 games. Keep up the great work. Over the last few years your insights and strategies have been amazing in MLB. You're entering your money season. Two months in Mazatlán starting in October. You will always have a place to stay come on down!
Thank you so much Greg! Let's have a great baseball season and I'll see ya in Mexico in October!
Mar 26, 2019 17:00:08
i like your orioles win total prediction my question is how many units for a season lbet
james hanna
Mar 25, 2019 20:01:16
Hey Brian, great work this weekend! The first weekend of the tournament is a difficult one to handicap and I think you did better than most. If possible, would you be able to release your picks for both Thursday and Friday before tip on Thursday? I would like to parlay picks from both days and don't want to find myself going against one of your plays on Friday. Thanks!
Joel, one of our criteria is "line-movement" on game-day because it matters. You may have noticed that for the first time since we started this site, we posted our NFL plays this past year on Sunday instead of Friday and had our best year ever in the NFL. We'll do our best to accompany you but our position can change, as we use everything at our disposal to try and capture where the true value lies. Thanks for the support and kind words Joel and best of luck! Play parlays and if you're alive, you can always hedge!
Mar 23, 2019 09:45:14
Brian - your work is much appreciated and I for one read every last word of every one of your picks. Sometimes more than once while I decided whether to jump in. Please know that the effort you spend doing the write ups is not going to waste. You would think people who typically don't read your write ups would see a spread @ odds of +130 and realize something was different about the bet.... but then again maybe not.
Thank you Cam. I appreciate you taking the time to write and send this message. It made my day.
Mar 22, 2019 10:52:16
I'm seeing Oklahoma plus 1, has something changed? Is someone out?
I often wonder if people read the writeup or just look at the pick. If you read the last three sentences of the OU/Ole Miss writeup, you'll know exactly why we're at -2½. Good luck Greg.
Mar 18, 2019 16:00:19
Sweet odds for Arizona but I can’t play along. Arizona pasted Tampa 7-1 in October. There might be some revenge planned for tonight. I’m not playing either so I hope you hit. I do like Winnipeg in my regulation.
Mar 17, 2019 11:47:49
Watching your new NHL betting, your should see success. All teams went 18 and 6 last night scoring 2 goals at least in regulation Saturday night, better luck ahead
Mar 10, 2019 11:13:07
Your college basketball is on fire lately and it is easy to see you are able to decipher which team's records are legit and which are phony! Keep up the great work with March Madness around the corner!
Mar 9, 2019 13:57:13
How can you not like the Red Wings at +450. 2 units for 9 sounds like great value. They are all professionals and like you’ve said in the past “luck driven” what are your thoughts.
You're 100% correct Steve. It almost has to be played.
Mar 7, 2019 22:41:35
I've followed and dealt with almost every single Sports handicapping expert out there. I can honestly say without a doubt that you truly are the KING !!! of all handicapped has your insights and your depths of knowledge are unsurpassed and the fact that you are doing it for free is amazing. True handicapping world class wizard.... thanks for sharing your secrets with us peasants.
Moe Chiracus
Thanks so much Moe. At a time when results haven't been favourable, your message made my day. I appreciate the time you took to write it and send it. Best of luck always, stay in touch and again, thank you so very much for the inspiring message.
Mar 7, 2019 10:06:45
Thanks for all of your hard work and keep plugging away. Baseball starts soon, and I am looking forward to seeing your season win bets. I do think you need to update your golf results. The Genesis Open still shows no results.
Thank you Bob. I appreciate that and will also update the Genesis Open this weekend.
Mar 3, 2019 08:26:49
Tough luck on the ice. To borrow a hockey analogy, I think you are "gripping the stick" too hard in an effort to salvage the season. You've been correctly touting Edmonton as playing better lately and you've also been correctly down on Bobrovsky and yet no wager on the Oilers at a sweet price yesterday. Maybe a week or two off the ice would do you some good. Lots of college hoops to keep you occupied in the meantime.
So true and so frustrating. My timing is way off. Thank you for a reasonable suggestion.
Mar 1, 2019 14:08:41
Just wanted to correct your write up on the Isles game tonight. Nothing happened in Brooklyn last night as they are done playing at Brooklyn for the remainder of the season til the 2nd round of the playoffs. The remaining home games are all at Nassau as was last nights game. I only point this out because I think it's a massive difference in these 2 arenas. Nassau seems to have a far more electrifying atmosphere and Barclays is terrible for hockey. Love the site and picks keep up the good work!
Thank you Eric.
Feb 27, 2019 14:30:34
On both Oil and Canucks tonight as well so good luck to us... Thought the Canucks would finally tail off after losing both Edler and Tanev at the same time a couple weeks ago but credit to the players for stepping up. I think getting rid of Gudbranson is addition by subtraction as he was one of the worst rated d-men in the league the last couple seasons, they replaced him with Luke Schenn last game and already Schenn looked far better from a positional stand point. Lastly, curious to see how Tanner Pearson works out. Horvat has been praying for a top 6 winger to play with him (lately he's been with Leivo, Spooner, Roussel) As far as talent and skill he has to be an upgrade on any of these guys....
Good stuff. Thanks for adding more insight Reid.
Feb 26, 2019 23:57:34
Indiana did their best to blow that game, but they even fucked that up.
Barry M
Feb 23, 2019 22:08:47
Once again, bad bounces......crazy bounce off boards, Price goes to play and then puck hits a crease in boards and Toronto scores. Should have cashed out after 3-0, in hindsight.
Feb 10, 2019 20:35:00
We need more bounces....just not happening. Lady Luck is around the corner.
Thank you Jon. I appreciate the encouraging words. Not easy.
Feb 9, 2019 21:50:33
What a frickin night. No bounces and no luck.
Rough week altogether.
Feb 2, 2019 19:01:43
Laughed my ass off reading about Marty! Great article my friend! I also was on those Patriots that day, I remember placing a bet with a bookie just before kickoff who said " Is anybody gonna take the Rams?" Looking forward to the game but I always say there are 16 games most weeks, this is just one game, so I only bet it if I really like it. This one has no value to me, but I understand the pressure we your followers expect a pick, my god its the Super Bowl! And you made great points about the love for the great Patriots, value is on the Rams. Best of luck!
Jan 30, 2019 13:54:34
What sports/bet types do you prefer for betting the 3 team parlays? It seems hockey/baseball work best for this but right now I'm having to work in NBA full games/quarters and halves with some college bball sprinkled in. Keep up the great work!
Jan 20, 2019 19:05:45
Long time reader... the Kansas City City call seems quite pathetic.
Carter Callahan
Jan 20, 2019 19:03:34
Andy Reid put his young QB squarely behind the 8-ball by trotting out the 31st ranked D in the league against the GOAT. I hope the Chiefs can recover from the decision to defer before the Pats get too far in front.
Chris G.
Excellent point -- and probably the first one you've made on this site!
Jan 19, 2019 11:17:02
Great call on Sens last night. Note it's the annual Dads trip including tonight versus the Blues. The suns record during these trips is unreal!
Jan 17, 2019 22:52:28
Nice call on the Leafs. I've followed since summer 2018 and by far your content is superior to anything else out there. So much info and best of...all free. Amazing! Thanks Sherwood!
Thank you Roberto. We always appreciate the support and kind words.
Jan 16, 2019 11:15:26
Hey Sherwood, More podcasts please! We need more talk from a winning sports wagering perspective and less of the jabronis on the fan 590 spouting meaningless gibberish. I honestly can't even listen to it anymore. It's really just glorified "man children" telling us who their favourite teams and players are.
Chris Donnelly
Duly noted. Thank you
Jan 12, 2019 13:00:20
I read your picks daily and respect the majority of your observations behind your betting selections. But I disagree with your take on the Colts-Chiefs game today, I agree about the Chiefs winning but a cover based on what you stated I don't. You talked about who the Colts played from a defensive standpoint, and I'll use the Patriots as a comparable.because the Colts and Chiefs both played them on the road. Pats put up 43 on the Chiefs. Also, Seahawks put up 38 points week 16, and week 13 Raiders put up 33 points. I believe the Chiefs defence is a concern going into the game. Weather is also a factor, and with Marlon Mack and the Indy run game against a bad Chiefs run defence I believe the Colts will cover. Also... your statement about 5000 yard passing quarterbacks is incorrect and you may want to retract as Drew Brees has multiple 5000 yard seasons, Roethlisberger also threw for 5000 this year. Best of luck to your picks, I appreciate what you do with your great insight.
The Law
Thank u
Jan 11, 2019 09:32:16
Ottawa was a hell of a call! At those odds, against that team they were a must bet. On top of the regulation bet I even added some -1.5 and -2.5 on some cheap parlays at sick odds. I read your site most days man keep up the great work.
Thanks Boneyard and props for taking it even a step further. It was a beautiful game!
Jan 11, 2019 04:19:56
Juicy live betting odds @ bet365 . Ottawa down by a goal to LA Kings 10 to 1.
Patrick Smith
Wow. I was watching the game and because I already had money on Ott, I didn't even check that. That's crackers and I hope you bet it. I will not miss it next time. The crazy thing is, I have my laptop open during games and have LIVE BETTING opened and still missed that!
Jan 10, 2019 23:30:14
How in the world do you come up with St. Francis? Or even get that info .. Wow impressive .
Thanks Tim. We spend endless hours researching and keeping up with who is who and what is what.
Jan 10, 2019 16:59:53
Creighton -3 has to go down as one of the ultimate bad beats.
Barry M
Truly one of the all time worst.
Jan 6, 2019 15:21:33
Experiecning the great victory of Marquette over Xavier this afternoon not only gets the hair on my arms to raise, but the anticipation of a few months of conference play, tourneys and the big dance in NCAA ball has me extremely excited. That pick you made today is something that a professional notices, and you have once again proven you are exactly that. Great work, and your loyal following are salavating for many more! Happy new year to you and your team (Matt)
We appreciate that very much. Thank you.
Jan 4, 2019 16:15:59
I don't like any of your NHL calls tonight except New Jersey! Good luck
Herbert Spencer
Jan 3, 2019 21:14:39
Another profitable year, old friend, good on you again. Thank you for your research and your contributions. Happy New Year and I look forward to your wildcard weekend and NCAA title game.
Thank you Tom. Happy New Year to you too!
Jan 3, 2019 19:07:43
Lol, 9 winning years out of the last 10 and a guy comes here and slams you. Like any business it's your bottom line at the end of the year that counts, learn from the losses and then reap the rewards. I enjoyed his post though, just a reminder of how dense some people are.
Centre Ice
I get more than just his but choose not to post them. They don't deserve mine or anyone else's time but from time to time, I post the stupidest one's because they're amusing. There will always be haters and trolls because misery loves company. Like Rob Pizzola for instance.
Jan 3, 2019 14:33:05
I agree with what Chris Donnelly just said. great site. glad I found it.
Thanks much DC and glad to have you aboard.
Jan 2, 2019 15:52:25
Good start to the year you badass. You said you loved the card yesterday and delivered. Unlike me, when I love a card that's when I should be scared shitless! Here's to a positive 2019! I'll still be robotically firing down $100 on every unit! Way to tell that troll the truth! Your followers are so lucky to have you giving out the most valuable picks on the Internet: and we get it all for free. Goddamn!
Chris Donnelly
Thank you Chris. It is my pleasure to give out well-researched picks every day and to correspond with so many good people.
Dec 31, 2018 09:39:28
That Arkansas State loss to Nevada was surreal and makes you realize that when you bet on college games, you are literally betting on the decision-making abilities of kids! 499 to 285 in total yards,25 to 15 in first downs for State were not enough as they gave up the ball THREE times on downs, missed two field goals(including a 25-yarder) , got picked off three times, including twice inside their opponents' 10 yard line and ended up losing 16-13 in OT!!! For two straight hours, I just KNEW I had a winning ticket until I was left alone ripping it up in the end! Hope you make a killing on the last day of the year and congrats on finishing in the black again!
Thanks Scott. Greatly appreciate it.
Dec 31, 2018 09:30:20
Happy New Year Brian. I meant no disrespect in my comment about Duke the other day. I was just venting about their slow start to the game. Take the Islanders and Kings to the bank today. And my early lean for Wild Card weekend is the Chargers.
Happy New Year to you too Joel and best of luck in 2019
Dec 30, 2018 18:19:58
I bet your excited the season is coming to an end eh?? Complete joke garbage picks. I love the in depth analysis and then how u get your arse handed to you on a daily basis. It takes character to keep coming back like nothing happened cudos on your determination in utter misery. JAGS?? LOLOLOL Cleveland aaaaahhhhhhaaaa!!!! Don't forget Philly. What a waste of time.
Teddy Moore
Another genius that emails me when the games are over. It's actually fascinating that a human would take the time to send what you just sent...BTW, Cleveland covered.....Now buzz off --- idiot-- and troll elsewhere. You'll never get anymore time in this space.
Dec 29, 2018 23:46:54
Hey Sherwood and fellow handicappers. My apologies for being a little harsh with my venting. Sherwood truly is a Class Act and has taught me valuable lessons about capping. I still don't like your Philly call. take care gentleman Philly to win and cover....
Norman Chesterfield
I appreciate that Norman and best of luck, always. No offense taken whatsoever.
Dec 28, 2018 16:06:52
Didnt need 4 quarters in the Music City Bowl. Holy! What a thrashing. Sorry for your 'all in' loss Joel. Sucks to get violently cleaned out due to impulsive betting.
Dec 27, 2018 14:35:53
ACC teams not named Clemson should stick to basketball. Just some ugly ass football from GA Tech and Duke the past couple days. At least Miami made a name for itself on the gridiron as opposed to the hardcourt. And if TCU's struggles are any indication of Baylor's abilities, I am all in on Vandy tonight.
There are 4 quarters ya know
Dec 26, 2018 10:44:04
I honestly am amazed (but not shocked) by anyone who comes here to crap on your picks or process Sherwood. I've been following you for years and your site is a great source for information. You are transparent and through with your picks and information. If you don't like the picks - do your own research and post somewhere. Thanks for everything man. Lets win some bowls ;)
Word it. Thank you.
Dec 25, 2018 01:55:28
Christmas day..... Under under under under under
Dec 24, 2018 10:36:29
Merry Christmas to you and yours, Sherwood. Let’s do some damage in the bowl games. Cheers!
Dec 23, 2018 22:27:02
Today Sherwood went 1 for 7 if Seattle comes through games not OVER. I understand chesterfield's frustration. 1 out of 7???
Sam moniz
Chesterfield was upset not because we went 1-6 on the day but because we went against his team. The 1 for 6 days happen. We have had few losing weeks in the NFL this year. They were not bad picks, they were bad bounces (see Jets, Dallas, Carolina --lost its QB and was forced to use a third stringer) and Houston. That's what the NFL is and we'll continue to play value and let the chips fall where they may.
Dec 23, 2018 20:35:15
As a fellow professional handicapper: Norman Chesterfield is an absolute tit.
He was insulted because we "bet" against his team and he took it personally. What he had was an emotional investment and response. He's a fan of the Eagles and fan is short for fanatic.
Dec 23, 2018 16:06:29
Well, with 3 backdoor cover losses, (NE, Dallas, Cleveland), I am hanging it up for the year. This is possibly the worst NFL season I can recall in 25+ years. I wish the rest of you all the success in the world, but this is too ridiculous for even the thickest-skinned sports gamblers, and I'm taking a nice hiatus. All the best!
Big G
Nothing wrong with taking a break G. It can be frustrating as hell when every bounce seems to go against you. Peace brother.
Dec 23, 2018 15:27:37
I greatly respect Sherwood. I know what he is capable of and the fact he does it for free says everything. We as life long gamblers know it's not all about stats and analysis. Just wanted to show professor Sherwood we are all not mindless lemmings ready to jump any cliff he points to. Even the greatest teachers make mistakes. Philly and their quarterback (champions) are going to win and cover. You can take that ticket to cashier.
Norman Chesterfield
Again, you're emotionally invested and one can hear it in your tone. I have no emotional investment in any team and couldn't care less if they folded tomorrow or moved to Halifax for that matter the next day. If you bet with your heart, you're 100% guaranteed to lose.
Dec 23, 2018 12:48:54
In response to the previous remark. Sherwood is a Champion too and his record speaks for itself.
Thank you for the support K
Dec 23, 2018 11:44:19
Houston has to be the dumbest pick you have made to date. Philly is a champion and now u will see why
Norman Chesterfield
Spoken like a true fan and one that does not understand our process. It wasn't a pick. We don't predict games, we just play value. Period. Once you embrace that nobody can pick games, you'll understand how foolish that last remark is. Peace out.
Dec 21, 2018 08:34:53
It seems like a yearly occurrence that you bless your followers with Christmas money on bowl game winners. As someone that has been a follower for many years, it seems like this extraordinary success always occurs on these types of standalone games. Before you respond to me, telling me a 100pm game in September and a the bowls games receive equal attention and analysis, I was wondering if you have ever tracked the results of the standalone picks, and how do the results look? Thanks again for excellent FREE picks and analysis. Just a true Gem
I appreciate that very much Dingle. I have not traced the results in bowl games or stand-alone games so I don't have the results. I trust that there are more intangibles to look at and therefore we're getting the same lines we would have if teams had a week off instead of a month. I dig to get reports on how the teams are preparing and what the general mood is and I believe it gives us an edge. Whether that's true or not doesn't matter but in my mind, it gives me a psychological edge thinking that it does matter. Thanks again for the kind if I could somehow get the NHL to cooperate, everything would be great!
Dec 20, 2018 16:46:35
Had Penn St -5 last night in college basketball. Tie game with 5 seconds left. They were awarded 6 free throws after a shooting foul and 2 additional techs charged to coach. Shooter went 6 for 6 and I got the luckiest win of my sports betting career by far. Yay!!
Chris Donnelly
I heard about that one. Man, they're sweet when you win those and torture when you lose. In-game variance at its best or worst.
Dec 18, 2018 14:25:19
Long time follower. I love the depth of analysis on each NHL Dropping a fine dime on all 4 nhl parlay Cheers professor sherwood
Kareem Joumha
Dec 18, 2018 10:46:15
Hi Sherwood, Have you ever had a problem with any online sports books? Having you ever been limited or had your business refused? Thanks
Chris Donnelly
Yes, I have been cut off from 2 places when the internet was at its infancy stage. Over the past decade, (or longer) no issues and with all the good info out there, nobody can blame anyone but themselves if they run into a problem.
Dec 17, 2018 14:36:22
What is the most accurate site to see where the acutal cosnensus or money is going?
William Hill actually lists their own volume on every game. The other "consensus sites are not accurate". I did a podcast on that subject, which you can listen to here
Dec 16, 2018 21:38:42
Would you consider posting your picks or leans on the bowl matchups early this week? I'm eager to make some selections as early as Tuesday and would love to put together some parlays using games later in the schedule. Anything you can release early would be greatly appreciated!
I will do the best I can to accommodate Joel. I have posted some and will try and add others.
Dec 14, 2018 22:49:08
Hi, i have 3 ties in my record. Am i to ignore those and just get to 200 W/L's? thanks
Yes, they are to be ignored.
Dec 14, 2018 19:15:37
Long time follower and avid fan. Exceptional write ups. Where did u get that hockey info on Washington being worst for high risk shots on net? Which website? Do u provide private picks for money? Pay for play picks ??? Thx
Sam Benny
Thanks Sam..I do not privately charge for picks. In fact, I discourage anyone from paying a tout service. The website I use for High Danger shots is
Dec 13, 2018 10:38:35
ahhh man. Super bad beat for Flyers!!!
Chris Donnelly
Word it.
Dec 13, 2018 08:43:13
Hello Sherwood. I noticed at the beginning of the year you were betting 1 unit in reg and 1 unit OT incl. Recently you have been going back to 2 units OT included. Is there a reason for this? I found the old way to be very profitable as well.
Both are profitable and I often play it -½ myself but I'm getting too many inquiries about it and therefore I want to keep it simple when posting games and let folks choose for themselves. I endorse -½ during regulation for sure.
Dec 11, 2018 15:41:21
Seeing your picks today and surprised you’re not on New Mexico at home vs. Colorado, whether taking the 5 points or winning outright. Seems like a classic play of yours with an overinflated power confidence team on the road spotting points in what’s likely to be a toss-up game. Any reason you’re the game that I’m missing?
Mike, good call and we looked at that game but didn't like the line movement and would have rather seen money coming in on the Buffs as opposed to New Mexico. If you bet it, best of luck
Dec 9, 2018 20:47:51
4 for 4 Sunday. Sick ! Good work again
Thanks Tom
Dec 8, 2018 23:49:46
Sir, I constantly recommend people visit your site for info. You at one time had a piece telling bettors which websites paid out and which were shams. I don't see it now. Also some of your articles on touts and other subjects are very interesting, I suggest on a slow day of sports, perhaps you could feature them, because those writings are a must read for any gambler Thank you for your work and keep winning
Thank you Tom. I will see if I can list those sham websites again (I think after I updated look of site I lost them), and also feature some of those other writings on the home page. Thanks for suggestion and kind words.
Dec 8, 2018 19:38:11
Honestly, not trying to be a dick but I’m pretty sure you’ve lost 75% of the bets against Washington. I know they’re up 2-0 as we speak and you’ll likely mention that in your response but you should honestly put them on your no bet against list after years and years of them consistently taking your money. I’m serious, have you ever considered staying away from them ? You just keep digging ... all the best though Brian. I really appreciate the website and your work but I honestly feel you need to lay off the Captials lol
Thanks Todd. Duly noted and I don't think you're trying to be a dick. All the best to you too
Dec 6, 2018 20:16:55
I love the site. Great work. But one question. In tonights Titans Jags game u said pinnacle took a clear position on Ten at -5.5. I dont see it. I looked everything over on vegas lines and odds offshore and it looks like most outlets went to -5.5 around the same time. many even beat pinni to the punch. how do u figure that Pinni took a clear position? I dont see it. i was on the Jags all the way but now second guessing.....
Jason, it can be really tricky sometimes. About 6:30 PM EST, Pinnacle had Titans at -5½ and almost everyone else had then at -5. What happened earlier during the day is of no concern to me. My philosophy regarding Pinny taking a position does not occur during the day but rather at that peak time when the public starts hammering the game. On Sunday afternoon, for instance, it would be between 11:30 AM EST and 12:30 PM EST for the NFL slate of games. Hope this helps somewhat my friend.
Dec 6, 2018 16:21:46
Back with NCABB selections. Again trying to take advantage of vegas tipping there hand Going to go with Purdue-8 and wake forrest -9 . Good luck
Thanks Steve. I'll be interested to see how it turns out.
Dec 5, 2018 11:05:06
They say to break even you have to win 60% of the time, that's why very few gamblers win and Vegas can build billion dollar hotels. This website is at 45% and he is already at +32 units. Just goes to show how well the method works, I always follow his picks and reasons because you can't argue with success. Keep up the good work Sherwood. Centre Ice
Centre Ice
Thank you so much Centre
Dec 4, 2018 17:55:41
The first month in a season is the best time to read lines I find in betting In NCABB I will give put the Dayton Flyers tonight -14. I know its a big number to be spotting but lay the lumber the books like Dayton tonight
Great call Steve, never in doubt
Dec 4, 2018 13:34:24
Tough night but it happens. Thought I would share my picks for tonight with everyone for NHL. Colorado, Detroit, Buffalo, Vancouver, Ottawa. 1 unit OT included. 1 unit regulation.
Dec 3, 2018 19:01:30
yes great value with devils and sabres 2 nite, but i'm gonna go with bolts and preds! let's drop the pucks and see what hapens! Enjoy!
Dec 1, 2018 19:59:05
loyal follower Sherwood. i know what u can do...but honestly I think sometimes u try way too hard to cute man. Just give us hard working boys clean easy winners. Ripping my NHL ticket in despair. Vancouver?? Saturday night in Montreal and u still picking ranger clowns who can't score ? wow I don't know why I listen every time. No cuteness just winners please !!!!@
Simone Sheppard
Dec 1, 2018 11:01:24
Personally, I am itching to get more immersed in the College Basketball season. The past few days I have found a tonne of value in researching the out of conference strength of schedule, and applying big differences to some misleading records that have the line swayed to mislead the public. I hope we will get to see more frequent college basketball picks, now that the football season is nearing the end! Always enjoy the excellent analysis and integrity of you and your people.
Nov 30, 2018 17:09:50
First of all I will point out that I'm from Calgary and love the Flames. I read your LA/Calgary forecast and of course I disagree. But, taking a second glance, your 60/60 baseball and 25/25 hockey analysis in the first paragraph is so true. BRILLANT! The value is on the dawg, In my case I wont bet against my team, but now I wont bet, many times old friend you have saved me money. Thanks again
Ha ha....thank you Tom. Your message made my day. Peace brother.
Nov 28, 2018 14:33:38
Hi Sherwood, Just wanted to let you know I've been following your picks for a long time. Because of your great, consistent results over a long period: Starting today, I'm going to robotically take every single one of your picks for a $100unit. I'm sure you've answered this in the past, but how much is 1 unit for you and do you bet all of your games? Thanks for all your consistent and dedicated hard work! Chris
Chris Donnelly
I do bet all of my games Chris and often post my tickets on Twitter. The amount of 1 unit is not relevant Chris...only units won or lost is. Best of luck and thank you for the kind words.
Nov 28, 2018 13:03:08
Looks like David Riitich will be starting tonight and not Mike Smith.
Nov 27, 2018 17:09:00
With all due respect I completely hate all your picks tonight I would go the opposite on all your pics tonight thank you
Norman Chesterfield
Nov 24, 2018 12:00:47
Looking for a bounce back day! Solid writeups and it goes without saying ..."can't win 'em all." Thanks again for your guys' work and here's to a good card today!
Thank you Rick
Nov 19, 2018 12:15:33
I see some real value on the NHL board tonight. Just thought I would share my picks. BUF@PIT: BUF. FLA@OTT: OTT. WPG@VAN: VAN. I noticed Pinnacle has still not put the Sabres in regulation on their board yet, however, 365 has them at +240. Keep up the great work Brian!
Nov 14, 2018 14:02:33
This site has really made me see the advantages not value betting and looking for reverse spreads etc. Keep up the great work !
Thanks very much Chinook
Nov 13, 2018 20:24:36
Amazing game analysis over the years Brian. I have been reading your picks almost every day since I was 20 (I’m 32 now) Your in depth research in to games as well as finding serious value is unreal and extremely appreciated! Over the years your picks have helped me live a little more relaxed life so thank you. If possible, I’d like to share a screenshot of a parlay I hit this weekend using your 2 picks of the Sens in reg over the bolts and Calgary in reg over LA. Really juiced up my ticket! Speaking of value, as a proud Winnipeger I am thinking about parlaying the bombers (4.10) and jets (11.0) together to both win the cup this year! Add a basketball game on the day you place it and odds are huge! Haha Look forward to reading your picks every day after work man! Thanks again for your hard work. Hunter
Hunter: Your message made my day so thanks for taking the time to send it. We're thrilled you have embraced the strategies and are doing well!
Nov 10, 2018 10:41:42
Great picks last night on College hoops. Not only was there a cover in both, but SU wins for those who wanted to get a little bit ambitious with your excellent research. You are the master of College hoops, and I'm thrilled to see positive results from the gate.
I appreciate that Dingle and thanks for taking the time to send a positive message!
Nov 10, 2018 01:20:24
Horrible picks. Wrong on all hockey and NBA. Also. Yes bet 365 is so much better than sports interaction
Andy, I play value. The results were horrible but the picks were not. There's nothing I can do about outcomes. In fact, at one point in the second, Devils had 11 scoring chances and Leafs had three and scored twice. Rags had a 2-0 lead and a 2-1 lead with 2 minutes to go. Celtics were down 4 with 36 seconds left. Cal Irvine was down the same 4 that Boston was with 40 seconds left and they won but that was a great pick? At some point, you may come to understand that the results are luck driven, which is why we stress playing value and letting the chips fall where they may.
Nov 9, 2018 10:15:36
I've noticed you've liked Wake Forest a couple of times but they're always seem to be a bridge too far yesterday they cover by 23. go figure!
Yeah, go figure. I should've posted them at that stupid price on Thursday. My bad.
Nov 8, 2018 21:09:02
Hey Brian, just thinking out loud here. The last few seasons the NHL has been a weak link for you. I wonder if this has anything to do with the rise of analytics and maybe a bit too much emphasis on the "under the hood" metrics and too little attention being given to team records and the old-fashioned eye-test? Maybe more than the other major sports, hockey is less of an x's and o's sport and more of a heart and determination sport. Maybe it's time to go more on what you see happening on the ice and in the standings?
Nov 7, 2018 14:47:32
Dont forget to include CFL Season win total Hamilton under 9½ as a win in your record list. I tailed you on that one. Thanks for the winner.
David O
Thank you David. I did forget and will post it up this week, along with my wager, as we don't just talk the talk.
Nov 4, 2018 10:20:55
Good day Sherwood respect your analysis in your pics but this week I have a few conflicting results I respectfully think you made a mistake in the in the following Pittsburgh to cover KC to cover Chicago to cover Saints to cover Houston to cover thank you
Conrad Broughton
You were right!
Oct 29, 2018 17:18:13
Brian, the Texas/ok St game on Saturday fit your theory about a ranked team spotting a small number on the road vs an unranked team. Sure enough, ok state won. Just wondered why you pulled out of that bet. (Thanks for that angle by the way and we'll see if it keeps on winning) keep on winning for us.
Oct 29, 2018 13:38:55
Sherwood, huge fan of your site and read it everyday. Anything I say is nothing but trying to improve my own handicapping and discussing constructive criticism. Before the year you mention using more DVOA metrics. Yet in the Minny NoLa matchup nothing was mentioned. Easy to say in hindsight because of the end score (also in game variance) but in Minny, Cousins is a large downgrade in terms of DVOA compared with Keenum last year. Minny D is drastically lower in DVOA than last year as well as their overall Offense. Besides NoLa D’s DVOA, they rank higher in QB and Offense than last year. Thoughts?
James L
Yes James, each game is independent of itself and therefore not every game will be handicapped in the exact same way. That one play (fumble) at the end of the first half changed everything about Sunday's result. Instead of going into halftime with a 10-point lead and momentum, Vikes were down four and deflated. Regardless, one has to apply all kinds of criteria to each and every game and if checks enough boxes, play it. Our reasons for playing each game are in each writeup, which is why you did not see the metrics in that writeup because they didn't favor the Vikes but that is not why the Vikes lost. Thanks for a good question and best of luck always
Oct 28, 2018 10:22:57
Sherwood I disagree with your Oakland and Denver and Jets picks. COLTS, KC and Chicago to cover. Thanks for the content and analysis.
Murray Sullivan
Oct 27, 2018 20:12:51
Nice call on Hamilton under 9.5 Brian. I didn't think we would cash that ticket. Thank you Ottawa.
Barry M
I didn't think so either. Thank you Ottawa is right! You can tell early that Ottawa was live yesterday.
Oct 27, 2018 15:25:38
Good day Sherwood I respectfully disagree with your Colorado pic have you legs will be at play here as Colorado is playing its third game in four nights Minnesota to pounce!! Keep up the great workur
Murray Sullivan
Oct 26, 2018 18:46:28
Cpl weeks ago you had a position on the Chargers after there owner passed away and they responded. Seahawks owner passed away last week wondering your thoughts
Steve, I like this angle very much and completely forgot about it this week. Thanks for bringing it up, as we are very likely to change our position on that one from Detroit to Seattle. Good luck!
Oct 26, 2018 17:06:02
I have the Dodgers to win the World Series at +850. Do you see any value in adding another unit or two bet on them at +450 to win the WS? Next 3 games are in LA and they could end up tying it or on top.
I don't think so RV, Dodgers look dead in the water. I have em too and I may end up betting Boston tonight at +150 because I see great value there.
Oct 16, 2018 14:19:13
These touts on covers kill me. Look at this analysis for the FLA PHI game tonight from this plug Marc David. "David's free play is on the Philadelphia Flyers. Florida is winless for the season and in their latest loss were 0-5 on their power plays which brings them to 0-12 for the season. They have lost their last 4 meetings in Philadelphia and 1-4 in their last 5 road games. The Flyers might have played their best game of the season in their last game but were still losers 1-0. The home team is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings." So look up some stats and make picks based on games that were decided in the past and mean sweet fuck all in this game? #Neverpayforpicks.
Good call. Idiots over there!
Oct 14, 2018 00:45:47
Good comeback for today. We're still waiting on the BYU cover. Looking forward to tomorrow's NFL. Thanks again!
Thanks much APB
Oct 13, 2018 23:17:52
"The Iowa State Hawkeye Football Team". You have to love them like a reliable Labrador retriever!
They sure are. Wish we hadn't come off them but that's the way it foes from time to time.
Oct 13, 2018 14:35:00
Every year I have to ask How Does He Do It? You win about 45% of your plays and most years a healthy bottom line. This year +47 units so far. Your analysis are tremendous in helping me in my sports wagering. The nay sayers who don't follow on a daily basis are missing out. By the way every year when I send my thanks I'm in Mazatlán, Mexico enjoying a month on you. So gracias mi amigo.
Thank you Greg. Enjoy the sweet sunshine. Thanks for taking the time to send this message!
Oct 13, 2018 12:11:44
Nice work last night on the college gridiron. Don't mind today's picks, but a little concerned with Vandy as they squeaked out a home win vs a cupcake 31-27 and got blasted by an ordinary Gamecock squad on their home turf. I hope you are seeing something that I am missing.
Chris G.
Shame that Vandy didn't cover up 21-3 and getting 7½
Oct 13, 2018 11:21:32
A question that comes up frequently addresses the size of wagering units. Usually the answer is somewhere between 1 - 2.5% of your bankroll. A question that never seems to be asked is what the maximum total wagering percent per day should be? If you find a lot of games in one day, what should the cut-off % be?
Number of games shouldn't matter. Set your unit % (2½ of bankroll) and stick with it. If you find you don't want to risk that much, cut back on the number of games for that day. Good luck Jason...good question too.
Oct 13, 2018 10:21:48
Just to completely flush out the negative jackass' comment about a bad day... I just want to reiterate how often you clean the board up with 100% hits vs. the oddity that was Thursday night. Your integrity, and information are incredible, but what is more valuable than anything else, is the discipline you teach. The discipline you implement and preach is something everyone should take away from your content, more so than the picks themselves. Without the structure of unit betting, removing liabilities in game, and avoiding dropping more than -115 on any line, I can not say I would still be handicapping at this point in time. Thanks for all the FREE tips and picks Sherwood!
Thanks so much Dingle. Your message made my day.
Oct 12, 2018 20:38:06
Tough night? Give me a break, your up 39 units for the month and its only 11 days in, you did it on purpose so the books don't bar you like Vegas barred Kreskin! You will kill it this weekend, keep your chin up!
Thanks Tom.
Oct 12, 2018 12:05:02
Tough night. The critics easily forget when you went 8-0 during Week 3 of the NFL. Sports betting is a grind and there's no such thing as easy money. There will be days where the books crush us. Long term profitability is the name of the game.
Oct 12, 2018 10:50:47
Win, Lose or are the one of the top analysts out there! Good insight as always sir.
Thank you Anthony, I appreciate that very much after a night that went horribly wrong. You are a good guy for taking the time to send us a positive message the day after a bad night.
Oct 12, 2018 09:07:41
0 for 6 last night. Are you serious?
Dead serious.
Oct 11, 2018 19:42:45
Knights were victims of puck luck in Buffalo. I stand by my bet, and the Avs are destroying the still dismal Sabres tonight so I feel somewhat vindicated.
Chris G.
So..when you lose, it's because of bad luck and when you win, it's because your team is destroying the opposition?
Oct 11, 2018 10:44:31
NHL bye week: 2 years ago you pointed out the advantage to the betting community and it certainly helped me, thank you. Last year i dont remember you posting about it and i wondered if you had noticed that they changed it up to where most teams coming off the bye played another team off the bye for the most part and took that bias away. I will be looking at those matchups this year soon because i believe most if not all teams will be on the bye going into and coming out of the All Star Game. And further enlightenment you may have on the subject would be appreciated... thank you.
Oct 11, 2018 00:49:39
Nice call on the Yots, +$$, is +$$. I bet Bovada, US, I can’t find -1/2. I don’t think they offer it.
Thank you Rick. Bet Bovada has -½ but it is listed as a "Three-way Moneyline" wager. That is the exact same thing, as three-way means either side or a draw. meaning three possible outcomes. Again, it is the EXACT same wager as -½ puck in regulation.
Oct 10, 2018 20:29:19
Hey Brian, I remember you mentioning to keep an eye out for Pinnacle as they are the sharpest book out there. For most games, they offer the better odds, however, there are times like today where I've noticed Bet365 offering better lines than Pinnacle. For example, the ARZ@ANA game (which you posted) as well as the Under in the LV@WAS game (+100 vs -104). My question is; How much stock do you put in betting on these games where other sites offer better odds than Pinnacle? It seems like something to pounce on.
RV, I am always aware of Pinny's line and never make a wager until I check what they are up to? It is not in stone but checking to compare lines is a great habit to get into and you seldom want to bet against Pinnacle when they "take a position". I will cover "taking a position" in our next podcast
Oct 10, 2018 08:03:36
Hi Sherwood, long time follower and I’m glad that you are doing well with your plays and all of your hard work for us. I have a unit bet question: my gambling money is spread over 3 accounts, and i tend to bet only 2% of my combined bankrolls per play. For 2 of my accounts it would be 2.5% of those accounts, but for my other account, it would be 9% of my online account. Should I continue to bet the same amount for this low account as I would for my other 2 healthy accounts or do I adjust my unit betting for only my low account. Thanks in advance. Dave M
Dave M
I think you're doing fine the way you are right now Dave. My guess is that the 9% account doesn't get a lot of play because the lines aren't as favorable or something along those lines, so betting 9% of small amount is fine to try and build that account up. I would never recommend betting 9% of your bankroll to anyone but there are exceptions to rules and I trust that this is one of those. I appreciate the support and continued good luck Dave.
Oct 9, 2018 23:51:20
Wonderful selections for today. I think we got all of them except for ncaaf. Love what you all do. Looking forward to the next set of picks and a new podcast!
Thank you APB
Oct 8, 2018 15:36:58
I realize the previous poster was excited about a winning day, but throwing it all on PL bets on a Vegas hockey team on the road against a sneaky Sabres team.......kind of a yikes for me. The game still 0-0 at present. I wish him well though :D
Bingo. Fan is short for fanatic. Fans lose money.
Oct 8, 2018 10:46:58
Absolutely salivating at the chance to take yesterday's profits (THANK YOU BRIAN!) and hammer the Golden Knights this afternoon. In regulation, minus 1.5 AND minus 2.5. Vega$ Baby!
Chris G.
You going to start with that emotional wagering again Chris? I hope not.
Oct 6, 2018 09:48:13
Sorry Jimmy, will not be updating starting goaltenders.
Oct 2, 2018 19:48:35
Joe Maddon is among the worst managers in the game that the market and media have coined as a “genius” in the past." I like the Rockies tonight too, but come on man. He's one of the best in the game. Also, Kyle Freeland has had a nice season.. he's not a "great" pitcher. Two years in the league make you a "great pitcher"? The cubs pen is short-handed with Morrow hurt and Strop banged up. If this game turns into a pen game, the Rockies should have the advantage like the Brewers did. Chavez pitched well and Madden took him out in case he might need him tonight. Was he supposed to burn him out and have him throw 30+ pitches and not have him available tonight? Regardless.. I'm with you on this tonight. Good luck!
With all due respect Steve, I disagree. He's one of the worst in my opinion but we can argue that until we're blue in the face. The bottom line is we are out to beat the books so let's hope for the best here! Thanks for input and best of luck!
Oct 2, 2018 18:45:00
The Montreal Canadiens are +198 OT tomorrow night for the opener in Toronto?! I get that the Leafs have a hell of an offensive line up and will probably put up 300+ goals this year, but come on...2-1 odds with a healthy Carey Price in net? Furthermore, the extended intros and all that jazz are never good for the home team as you have said in your previous write ups. Seems like value to me...
Oct 1, 2018 19:37:29
Sent paypal on sept 28th for nhl pool and got no response back.... sent email to bushay44 today oct 1st to get some kinda reply... still nothing Help!
It'll be taken care of. When you sent a PAYPAL payment, you did not send an email address or name so we had no idea who it was from. If you sent an Email to Bushay today, we now have that info and we'll get back to you on Monday night or Tuesday.
Oct 1, 2018 12:46:00
I would just like to let you guys know how much I appreciate what your doing! I'm going back now and listening to some of your older podcasts, such great info! Thanks again and please keep up the good work!
Thank you RW. We appreciate the feedback and support.
Sep 28, 2018 18:41:50
You've got a new fan here. Excellent, quality info! Do you happen to do any analysis on MMA-Bellator? Specificially tomorrow's card (09/30/2018).
Thanks much friend and welcome. Unfortunately, we do not cover MMA regularly at the present time (too much other stuff going on) but will be picking it up again next summer or when we see something that offers up great value. Check for updates and potential plays.
Sep 28, 2018 02:00:19
I have to thank Mathew Finny, spelling? For all the time and effort he puts in, thank you. I cashed out this year for the first time in MLB for a few dollars and am up on my NFL investments thanks to you Guys!!! I am trying to re-wire my brain after listening to your podcasts and fallowing on Twitter, but after years of sports radio and TV, old habits die hard. Keep up the great work, be cool n keep on cashin
Thanks so much Rick. We appreciate the kind words and support very much.
Sep 27, 2018 23:43:11
OMFG, even your Thursday selection was a push, how will you break out of this NFL slump? You are killing it, bet viewership is way up, congrats. Was telling my wige about your Sunday, now I am getting a lecture, " Did you check with that Sportswagers guy?" Yes dear
Thanks Tom. it's so great when things are going well but we all know that this business can humble one very quickly. Let's keep it going!
Sep 26, 2018 13:26:57
Thanks again for yesterdays picks. Good call on the Pirates. Still made a profit nonetheless despite the other two losing. Anyway, have you ever considered tennis matches? I havent seen one. Perhaps it does not interest you? Thanks again for all you do!
Thanks APB. I have never delved into tennis. Don't like it. Sorry
Sep 25, 2018 17:39:27
Looks like Moya will be starting instead of Stewart for the Twins. Do you still like the Tigers over the Twins? Cheers.
No, I do not. Not recommended.
Sep 25, 2018 10:36:09
Longtime reader. Flawless weekend Brian. Congratulations!
Sep 25, 2018 09:24:23
Good stuff! Great site and i'm glad to have run across it. Thank you for your insight into these games.
Golden Gorilla
Sep 25, 2018 01:02:44
Good calls with the Padres and Steelers selections! Had to sweat out the last few mins. Thought it was going to be an easy night with the 20 point lead at halftime.Thanks again!
Steelers a sloppy mess. We got lucky with that one but isn't that the case with so many games? Thanks APB
Sep 24, 2018 19:16:56
Kaboom !! Well done my man. Preach it from the hilltops. A Loyal apostle
I appreciate it that Paul.
Sep 24, 2018 13:42:47
YOU KILLED IT ON SUNDAY!!! Great job Brian, I don't see the trolls out today...wonder why? Lol. I took some of your in game betting advice yesterday. Tennessee had the ball to start the 3rd quarter yesterday in a tie game and were already in Jacksonville territory when Bet365 offered TEN +270 on the Moneyline. Took that great value bet and ended up cashing that ticket among others!
Good to hear RV. Glad you did well too and thanks for letting us know.
Sep 24, 2018 13:37:43
Earlier in the year I placed a wager that you recommended on your Twitter account (LAD to win NL West +310) on Bet365. The Dodgers are 1.5 games ahead of the Rockies, however, it appears Colorado has the better schedule. A seven game homestand to end the year facing the Phillies and Nats. The Dodgers have six games on the road to end the year, including the last series against SF you were mentioning in your write up today. Bet365 is offering an early cashout of +250 right now and it seems like a half decent offer. Any thoughts?
Chris. I cashed out today at that exact price and recommend you so the same. I really like that you're on top of it, the sign of being diligent with your wagers and always weighing your options. No reason to sweat this last week out.
Sep 24, 2018 09:04:21
Hot damn, 7-0 against the NFL point spread on one Sunday! Sweet!
It was a thrilling day!
Sep 23, 2018 22:15:18
You put on a monster clinic today. I know it’s ealry still with the lions up 20-10 but this has to be one of the best Sunday’s put together I’ve seen in a long time. 7-0 with a ton of money line wins. Can’t beat that.
Thanks Kevin. It was a thrilling day to be sure. That said, this league (and business) has a way of humbling anyone so we'll enjoy it momentarily and focus on today. I appreciate you taking the time to write and hope you had a great day as well. PEACE
Sep 22, 2018 23:10:23
Baltimore for the survivor pick week 3? I thought this was already used for week 1 for this entry? The other entry lost on week 1 with the saints.
Oh DAMN....that's true. I'll have to change that but it's too late. I'll make a note of it next week.
Sep 22, 2018 17:43:36
Good day sir just want to get your take on the USA getting open sports betting. Do you think Canada will follow in the near future, I mean hey pot in two weeks why not full blown sports betting Thanks Tim
I'm not so sure they will. They make a fortune on Pro-Line and as long as folks keep pouring fortunes into those impossible to beat betting lines, they may not. 5 to 10 years from now is my guess.
Sep 22, 2018 10:38:30
To Tom, Ditto!!!..Thanks for all the great and hard work you put in..I always check your analysis first, before selecting my plays..Thanks again
You're welcome Douglas. Thanks for the kind words and support.
Sep 21, 2018 19:22:42
Love your new NFL setup, it only makes sense to put out your selections Friday and finalize Sundays, it will keep those whining bitching trolls down. I have followed you for years and this is my go to daily site. I do not always agree with you but if I want to go big on a game, I wait your daily picks. You have saved me some cash with some solid analysis. Love your CFL stuff and although I know your busy, I often find great value there with offshore books.Once again thank you for your hard work and yes I go with books you recommend
Thanks much Tom. Your message made my day and I appreciate you taking the time to send it. Peace brother.
Sep 19, 2018 15:04:48
Are you going to ante in on the final PGA event of the season? Small field, but I would like to put a plug in for Paul Casey at 50-1 or so depending on the book. Casey is not in recent form, but has four consecutive t-5 finishes on this track and held the 54 hole lead last year.
Joel, sorry, I will not ante in on the final event. Writing up an entire PGA event is extremely time consuming and during the summer months, I have that time to do the research with just baseball going. During football season, we're researching and making notes beginning on Monday, as it is a 7-day a week chore to keep with both college and pro football, not to mention baseball and being ready for the NBA, NHL and college basketball season's that are right around the corner. OUR PGA season ends in late August and we'll pick it up again in early March. Best of luck with your picks.
Sep 19, 2018 12:24:21
For someone to come in and correct you about the mistake in calling the Miami OH football team the Bobcats, you'd expect them to know that their team is not called the Redskins either. Come on Steve!
I'm not sure if Steve was being sarcastic or if the Redskins are Miami Ohio's slang nickname...they are the Redhawks, Ohio is the Bobcats but maybe Miami fans call Miami Ohio the Redskins.
Sep 17, 2018 09:01:55
Graded SF as a win over COL on 9/16. They lost 3-2
Corrected. Thanks.
Sep 15, 2018 12:17:01
Sherwood, have never had anything but good words for you and everything you do. With that said, if you ever call my Miami (OH) Redskins the Bobcats again I will hunt you down, and let us just say there wil be a serious tongue lashing. For Godsake Miami is the Cradle of Coaches and gave us Big Ben, John Harbaugh and Sean McVay just to name a few. Come on my friend you are better than this! Good luck today. Cheers!
My bad. LOL. I corrected it.
Sep 8, 2018 20:15:36
COL@NEB. With about 1 minute to go in the game Colorado is facing 3rd and 24 at their own zone. Nebraska takes a stupid penalty and it's an automatic first down in Nebraska territory. Colorado ends up scoring and wins. #Ingamevariance.
Another example among dozens of others. Thanks RV
Sep 7, 2018 20:51:55
Hi Sherwood I admire your discipline for your daily write ups my question is about the touts there are so many of them do any of them make a living just selling pics or do they have other jobs and are just waiting for the next sucker
They don't have jobs. They are degenerate gamblers looking for gambling money and they hustle. They're smooth talkers because they have learned how to use that gift to survive. They are the scum of the earth.
Sep 5, 2018 19:30:47
GlasNOHHHHHHHH! Ugly outing against a popgun attack. Thems the breaks.
Chris G.
Sep 5, 2018 12:52:44
Jason asked a great question in his post on Sept 3rd that shows in these Reader's Comments but you didn't reply to. Can you reply/comment on that for us about the best way to withdraw funds and if our Canadian banks allow? I thank you for the great work on this site, value greatly your comments and efforts. Keep it up please!
Thank you Jerry. Answered!
Sep 4, 2018 12:32:24
Hi Sherwood. Thanks for everything you do on a daily basis! I was wondering what are your thoughts on the Cleveland Browns win total @ 5.5? Seems to have value with the under but what are your thoughts?
Cass, I looked at all teams and gave out my two best plays. Cleveland wasn't included because I think that they have a chance to be right around that number with 5 or 6 wins. That said, if you like it and I'm sure you researched it, I really do not like to take anyone off a bet. Trust yourself and you'll be fine. If you do bet it, I hope you win!
Sep 3, 2018 13:15:22
Sherwood I came across your site last week and wanted to tell how impressed I am with the work you do. Thank you SIR!!!!
Thanks James. I appreciate the time you took to send that and welcome!
Sep 3, 2018 12:17:26
Hi Brian: Adding to a previous comment about depositing funds into Pinnacle, what is the best way to withdrawing funds? Is there a Canadian bank/institution that will allow such a deposit? What is your experience in this matter?
All Canadian institutions will allow BANK to BANK wire transfers to sportsbooks. However, I urge you all to open an account at INSTADEBIT. It will take a few days to get set up but it is the best and easiest way to deposit and withdrawal funds into any sportsbook and it also allows you to move money quickly. I cover this on my site and you can read about it here: I have personally been using Instadebit for six or seven years (maybe more) and have never had a problem.
Sep 2, 2018 13:45:22
A stone masterpiece yesterday for sure, Sher. Especially the digging on Liberty SU! Thx for all u do!
Thanks very much.
Aug 31, 2018 20:51:00
hi Brian tried to deposit with visa card in pinnacle account does not accept?
AJB: It is not Pinnacle that declined it, is your bank or company that issued you the card. Many of them will not approve credit card deposits to gambling sites. However, if you buy a prepaid credit card at Shoppers Drug Mart for instance, that will be approved at Pinnacle because it is not a bank issued card.
Aug 30, 2018 12:42:11
Will sportswagers be placing any futures bets on NFL players, or season specials that are offered
No Andy, those bets have a big house edge because of the heavy vig or 40 cent lines.
Aug 29, 2018 00:15:12
Can you explain the "fade approximately 80 units a year in vig" comment? Thanks!
Ralph, it is basically saving 80 units a year by playing money line dogs instead of point-spreads. On games that lose and would've lost anyway, had I played the pointspread, I save a lot of money over time. It all adds up.
Aug 27, 2018 16:29:09
Any thoughts on OAK +170 over HOU tonight?
We have no strong take on the game. If you like it, bet it. Good luck RV!
Aug 25, 2018 16:05:59
I'm really into live betting, especially NBA. I currently use one sportsbook that I won't name. In your experience what is the best book to live bet in terms of odds, and point spread options. It seems like something very hard to compare because of the constantly changing line. Thanks.
BET365 hands down is the best for several reasons with the most important reason being that they are not "on the ball" all the time.
Aug 25, 2018 08:39:10
Brian, I figure you fade approximately 80 units a year in vig. Close?
Barry M
You are damn close Barry. Damn close.
Aug 18, 2018 22:19:16
when you say "This might be the best bet on the MLB menu today", i follow! thanks again for all your hard work.
Aug 14, 2018 23:23:30
Great night!! Finding value at it's finest. As always thanks for all your hard work.
Aug 14, 2018 17:34:15
Do you have a sense of the value in Bet365's payout if your MLB team is ahead by 4? Say 365 has a team at +125 - what odds would another book have to offer to get your action?
Pickering Peeder
Lots of variances to that question with the most glaring being what inning is it?? Early in game, those odds are lower. Late in game, a four run lead could be as high as 20-1. Each inning would result in a different number.
Aug 10, 2018 07:59:41
Question: Do you intend to post any over and unders for the NFL regular season?
Mick Maguire
Indeed Mick. Our futures will be posted sometime next week
Aug 9, 2018 15:40:18
Do you know of any sites that run simulated Hilton contests?
No, I do not Tim.
Aug 8, 2018 11:42:35
Sherwood,did u get my results i sent u on DeGrom under 1st 5 inn?
Edward vaichus
Yes sir, I did. Thank you.
Aug 5, 2018 22:46:31
Okay Sherwood i did the research on under 1st 5 inn when DeGrom takes the mound,if you skip 1st 4 games of the year the next 12 straight went under,then game vs Kershaw went over,then 6 more straight unders,thats 18-1 last 19!!!Degrom gave up a total of 11 runs through those 1st 5 inn in last 19 starts!!
Edward vaichus
Thanks for sharing Edward. It's something worth keeping an eye on.
Aug 4, 2018 07:12:02
I have what I think is a very profitable bet this year and I'm curious to find out if you can find out what the winning percentage on this play? Whenever Jacob degrom takes the mound the Mets never give him any run support plus he always pitches great I like playing the under first five innings see if you can get a record on the under this year first five innings when Jacob text to Mound? Tia..,, appreciate all your great analysis
Edward vaichus
Thanks Edward for the suggestion and the kind words. We'll keep an eye on it for sure.
Aug 3, 2018 23:32:47
What a sickening beat with Colorado. Thats what happens when you walk batters, inexcusable.
Wade Davis is terrible. The Rockies got swindled on that deal. That said, losing in the ninth after being up one run is not a sickening beat and if it is for you, you have either been very blessed or you have not been wagering very long on sporting events. It sucks for sure Bud and we feel your pain.
Aug 2, 2018 13:36:13
Thank you for all your hard work. I do not subscribe to any paid "pick" sites. If you ever go private I will be a subscriber. I look forward everyday for your expert analysis.
Henry Ropertz
Thanks for saying so Henry. Not to worry though, I will never charge for picks.
Jul 30, 2018 21:01:38
I read your twitter feed but don't have account to respond on that Pinnacle was saying that based on price to be careful of betting on San Fran tonight. But doesn't amount of money bet on a certain team change the lines at each individual betting company? I did bet against sf, just curious. Keep up the great work.
Jon...No, but that's a long conversation that I will cover in our next podcast. Basically, the lines are universal and when one outfit moves, so do the others. Again, I'll cover that extensively in our next podcast. Thanks for a good question.
Jul 30, 2018 15:09:58
What site do you use to get pitching stats??
I use Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs Bud. I pay for a subscription to both but both have lots of good free content too.
Jul 29, 2018 16:04:26
Love the new feature, ADD ONS, thank you. Enjoy your site daily.
Thanks Tom.
Jul 29, 2018 12:21:03
Outstanding job Saturday night. You are one of the best MLB handicappers I've seen anywhere. Love the write ups and continued success.
Jul 28, 2018 16:16:34
Yes, I understand how much work and time it takes to include write-ups....It takes enough time just to research who to pick. Another thing people may not realize, is the time spent researching games that you decide to ignore! I'm looking forward to the new feature! I read you every day, keep up the great work....
Thanks so much Jeff and you're 100% correct about the "games we pass on".
Jul 28, 2018 10:08:21
RE Argos game. When the Ref gives you the first ten penalties of the game, you get an idea of what your chances are in this game.
Toronto was the least penalized team in the league going in too.
Jul 27, 2018 23:07:25
Cost me a 2k payout. I even had them at 19.5 points. Fucking garbage.
Such a shame to lose that, as in-game variance was strong against the Argos last night. Such a misleading score it was.
Jul 27, 2018 19:12:07
Your CFL underdogs keep getting drilled despite the big points you pick up with them. Tonight you have the Argos +10 in Winnipeg...If they get blown out, will it be time for a strategy change at least when it comes to the CFL?!...I expect you to be over a plus 100 again by Dec. 31 my friend!
No strategy change Scott. We can't worry about results, we just have to stick with value
Jul 15, 2018 16:50:22
WHAT A FUKIN SHOW-OFF. Det. -1- plus $6.75!!! Hum baby Bri.
Barry M
LOL, thanks BM. Hope you played it too.
Jul 15, 2018 16:47:56
Nice call on Detroit
Thanks Greg
Jul 12, 2018 13:08:18
Nice work today on CFL, I'm with you. Stamps have problems playing in Ottawa.
Ottawa looked horrible but it is what it is.
Jul 11, 2018 19:57:13
Edmonton opened at -7 and now jumped to -9.5. Should I jump on the Argos now or wait till game time and hope it hits a 10
If u like Argos, I would bet it now, as it's likely to come back down a bit.
Jul 10, 2018 17:38:05
Description is not listed for Marlins ballpark in MLB Parks heading. Thanks...and keep up the fine work!
Byron Clark
Thank You Byron. I'll get info up ASAP.
Jul 1, 2018 11:03:53
Sunday July 1st 2018. Well Happy Canada Day to you Brian & your staff and all your followers . Be Safe > Your : Silent Follower : Mr. Baxter. .
Mr. Baxter
Thanks much Mr. B for the well wishes and the time you took to send them. All the best to you too!
Jun 26, 2018 11:39:38
I'm pretty sure you meant to say that Argentina needs to beat Nigeria for Iceland to have a chance at the knockout round. A Nigerian win would eliminate Iceland.
Jun 25, 2018 11:00:31
I thought I would share a strategy I have been using at Bet365 when it comes to tie games heading into extras. I have noticed a lot of the time, the visitor is given hugely inflated odds. For example, yesterday I took the Blue Jays at +185 in a tie game with 1 Out in the bottom of the 9th. I have noticed if you pick many visitors heading to the bottom of the 9th, you will get odds in the +200 range. Who knows what will happen in extras, and the value seems to be tremendous for what seems to be a coin flip.
Jun 23, 2018 09:15:19
Is it true "Johnny Football" new nickname is "Johnny Bench"?
Barry M
That's not bad! Not bad at all Barry....LOL.
Jun 15, 2018 08:09:34
I have been watching some soccer and believe I see some pretty good bets but I don't really understand the first line of betting lines for instance it has Iran +285 Morocco +130 Draw +200 can you explain this to me please as to me it seems someone should be laying some juice. The rest is pretty self explanatory. Thanks
The lines are self explanatory also Tim. If you bet a side (Iran +285 or Morocco +130) and the game ends a tie, you lose that bet. It's what is known as a three-way line with three possible outcomes (Draw, Morocco or Iran). There are other options too in soccer betting. You can also bet Morocco -200 or Iran +150 and if the game ends in a tie, it's a push. The last option is you can spot a half goal or take back a half goal, which is known as Asian Handicap (in most dropdown menus) and the odds change for that too. Google "soccer wagering options" for a full explanation if you need more help. Good luck!
Jun 14, 2018 22:46:14
Hey Sherwood, considering you "guarantee integrity," why do you ignore when people offer a correction on a line you post that is off by 30 points? Yes, I am referring to posting SF +108 at 11:15AM EST 6/14 when the best available line was at pinnacle @ -122. I think a clarification is just.
David G
David, it was a typo on my part. The "selection said San Fran +108 but the writeup was MIAMI +108. We corrected it and will grade it as a Miami loss.
Jun 13, 2018 09:54:37
Hey Sherwood, do you think you'll be posting any world cup games? Love your insight brother....keep 'em coming.
No promises Sarb but there's a great chance that we'll have a bunch of games posted throughout the event. Thanks for the support and enjoy the tourney.
Jun 9, 2018 10:07:53
Yes, the Capitals were the right call at that price and provided ample evidence of the perils of in-game variance in the process. Holtby's game-saver in Game 2. The goalposts in Game 3 or 4 (can't recall exactly which game but the Knights hit multiple). Let's not forget that the champion Capitals were routinely faded throughout the season on this site with their substandard Corsi and other advanced stats being cited as good reasons to wager against them. And earlier in the playoffs our man Brian said he couldn't give a rats ass about Ovechkin willing his team to victory. At the end of the day, advanced metrics are just one way of looking at games. There is still something to be said for will and determination in sports.
Chris G.
You're missing the whole point Chris. Will, determination, destiny, fate, momentum and all those other unmeasurable tangibles are fodder for the talking heads. By discussing in-game variance you actually hit the nail on the head. YOU CAN'T PREDICT GAMES. nobody can and that's why Caps were the right call. They were the value play, win or lose. Just like Vegas will be a great season total point under bet next year. Yeah, I faded the Caps all year and they were lucky as f**k to win the Cup because there are 15 teams better than them but I do not care or root for anyone to win or lose based on favoritism. I couldn't care less who wins or loses and I target overvalued teams, which Washington was all during the regular season. Peace brother and thanks for a lively discussion.
Jun 8, 2018 08:16:39
Great call on Capitals, Sherwood. Your write-up was spot on. Haven't heard from Chris G since Game 1? Thanks for all you do.
Thanks Bones. Chris is a prime example of how not to bet. He's easy influenced by results and he brings emotion with him. He was chirping for 6 games how Nashville was going to ruin Winnipeg and as soon as they were eliminated, he hopped on the Vegas bandwagon, insisting that they "refuse to lose" and that Washington would not score more than 2 goals in any remaining game. While I appreciate anyone's conviction or passion, an unbiased observer could see where they value was in that series from the inset. Leave emotion and past results out of the equation and play value and you have a chance. Chris G will figure it out someday.
Jun 7, 2018 16:11:01
NFL future... Pats under 11.5 wins -- thoughts?
Stone-cold lock Greg. No, seriously, I would have to agree with you. If Brady gets injured, they cannot cover that number and if he doesn't, they still likely won't. Lot of problems in NE from my vantage point that I'll cover at another time. Solid wager.
Jun 6, 2018 12:49:43
are the H2H golf matchups available at 5dimes. I cant seem to find them Thanks
tony dinapoli
5Dimes actually has more H2H than most and more options too with a stroke handicap as well. For instance, you can take Barn Rat +145 over Luke List or +2½ strokes at -110. Either way, just look under GOLF on theior betting menu, check maek in PGA and all the H2H are in there. Good luck!
Jun 4, 2018 22:33:57
Just wondering how far you think the Patriots will fall? +750 for them to miss the playoffs is very tempting even if the Bills, Dolphins & Jets don't inspire a lot of confidence .
That's such a bad division but if Brady gets hurt, then what? I would make that bet Ben. Even if Brady doesnt get hurt, the demise begins this year. Good luck.
Jun 2, 2018 20:30:33
Hey Sherwood, I saw the 6$ parlay tickets that you tweeted out ... is that one unit or two lol? Please tell me you're throwing down more money then this 😁😱??. P.s. Love the site and all the great free research, keep up the good work .
Matt Harley
Thanks Matt. You must be a new follower on TWITTER because I often post my flat bets too. I'll do that today.
Jun 2, 2018 16:16:03
Hey Sherwood. I know you have mentioned all of the sportsbook sites on your website can be trusted for payouts etc. Having said that, in regards to larger bets say $100-200/unit, would you say maybe stick to one or two? I am currently with Pinny & 365, and both have been fantastic with payouts. I have read on some forums where 365 will limit your bets if you establish yourself as a winning player. Pinnacle seems to be the gold standard. Do you have a specific one of these sites where you make larger bets or do you treat them all equally?
I generally treat them all equally. You are in good shape with BET365 and Pinny. Those rumours about 365 limiting winning players is not true. Years ago, many years ago, they did and were known as Bet 3.65 cents or three dollars and 65 cents because of it and when a reputation like that is established, it's tough to get rid of. However, like other books run in the UK, they are under heavy strict government policies and things have changed dramatically with all of them. You can feel safe with any UK book, not just BET365....Ladbrokes, Will Hill, etc. No worries about Pinny, BET365 or any UK book. Good luck!
May 31, 2018 17:00:38
Win or lose, your write up on both of tonight's Phils and Rangers games are great. Solid analysis, well articulated, as always. I'm on both, win or lose thank you!
Jay M.
You're welcome Jay and thanks for taking the time to send some kind words. Good luck!
May 29, 2018 06:40:25
Brian, now that I've sobered up a bit and come down from last night's game I would like to apologize for the tone of my comment last night. You are a good sport and don't deserve to be antagonized in such a way. Truthfully, if Vegas ever was going to lose another game this post season, logic stood to reason that it would have come following an extended layoff. So your reasoning was sound and it could have paid off. No hard feelings. And keep those gems like yesterday's Tigers pick coming.
Chris G.
No offense taken, Chris, There's and old saying that says if you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen so no worries, I can take it. We're on the same side when it comes to the ultimate goal of beating the book. Never forget that. Best of luck and thanks for taking the time to apologize.
May 28, 2018 23:11:46
No rust on the Golden Knights juggernaut. The Caps got 4 past Conn Smythe favourite MA Fleury and still couldn't win. They'll be lucky to get more than 2 per game past him the rest of the way. I warned you all after round one that the NHL would have its Leicester City. This Vegas team just REFUSES to lose. They answer each and every deficit with a quick equalizer. 13 - 3 so far in the post-season. If only you had remained on the bandwagon after round 1. Good thing for your backers that you are a baseball sage because hockey is not your thing.
Chris G.
May 26, 2018 17:12:59
Sherwood any leans on the Houston game. 12.5 points seems to be an overreaction of Chris Paul getting hurt. First two games were 7.5 and 8 if I remember correctly. Any value playing the rockets?
A definite overreaction Steve. That said, the Warriors have been taking it on the chin in the media and they figure to be pissed off tonight. CP3 is also their best player. I would never bet GS because we all missed the best number (-10½) but I could not bet Houston either. You have the right idea though for sure. It's Houston or nothing based on said overreaction. Good luck whatever you do.
May 25, 2018 13:22:22
Couldn't agree more about Tabler and Martinez Especially love "no hits yet but he's seeing the ball better"
Bob Hand
No hits yet and seeing the ball better is another classic! Man, are they bad.
May 24, 2018 00:38:10
Looking forward to your write-up on the Caps vs LGK. One thing I have learned here is, the best team is not a “lock”. I was in a discussion with a couple of friends about the luck factor in sports wagers, they said I was crazy. I sent them your website and podcasts, we will see. Thx guys for all the hard work and keep up the good fight.
Thanks Richard. We shall see indeed. At some point, if they have an open mind, they'll embrace that results are all luck-driven and variance. Yes, good teams win but the worst teams in hockey win 25 games a year and the worst teams in baseball win over 60 games a year. Ask them why?
May 23, 2018 16:44:11
Brian, I just have a clarification question regarding the baseball ML parlays. Last year when you mentioned them I thought it was pick your main team ML for the 10 games. Then pick the secondary teams as well ML. Then for the third games it's all on the Alternate run line. This podcast mentioned pick your main team -1.5. Is it 2 of 3 games in the parlay at -1.5 alternative run line? Just wondering if you could explain further. Thanks.
RV, you are right.....pick one game and follow it with secondary and add-ons. That said, your one game can be a straight up dog, an ALT RUN LINE or anything else. You have the strategy correct. All three game parlays.....ONE MAIN, 3 SECONDARY games and then add-ons. Good luck!
May 23, 2018 14:07:49
All this switching in the Boston/Cleveland series leading to free-rolls reminds me of the good old days at Betfair where we could do that in-game for ridiculous prices offered! I miss those days haha, I took a shot with Houston +600 for the series last night before the game and it already has me in a decent free-roll situation as well, even better if Houston can pull off game 5 at home tomorrow.... good luck
I miss those days too Reid but as the saying goes, when one door closes, another one opens up. Good luck with the Rockets. NBA playoffs have been highly entertaining.
May 21, 2018 10:28:15
+1.05 on the year after a big Sunday sweep, yer back where you belong! You are literally the only handicapper that I know of who posts his yearly standings. I call that integrity!
It was a long swim back from being down 40 units last month but we stuck with it and so should everyone else. Thanks for taking the time to write Scott and for the kind words!
May 18, 2018 23:55:29
I love your write ups! Just wanted to thank you for the best FREE picks anywhere on the internet. Every day I look forward to reading your write ups for your selections. Great job!!
Brandon: You're welcome. Thanks for the support and taking the time to send some kind words. It matters and I appreciate it very much.
May 17, 2018 07:13:42
I may have been wrong about Nashville, but that parade I called for on the strip at the beginning of round 2 might actually happen. This Knights team is playing with so much confidence. John Shannon had an interesting comment about LV. He said if there are 6 ways to win a game, the Knights can win 5 of those ways. Other teams can usually just win 3 of those ways. The Jets speed game has been taken away from them. What are they going to do now? Long suffering fans in St. Louis, Buffalo, Vancouver and Toronto might have to witness an EXPANSION team hoist Lord Stanley in year 1.
Chris G.
One day you'll hopefully embrace our strategies. Right now, emotions are clouding your brain and you see what you want to see. Vegas has clearly been the second best team in this series and it's not over yet.
May 13, 2018 19:22:12
"Hum baby" Woody. Great day!!
Barry M
Thanks Barry
May 13, 2018 18:14:59
What a great call on the White Sox...your hard work and information is always appreciated!
Thank you Ralph
May 11, 2018 21:41:10
Capitals call was spot on great advice bud. Keep up the great work !!! 4-0 but im sure their luck running out soon.
Says the genius when the game is FINAL. Dude, seriously, guys that email me after the game are 500-0. They are now 501-0. Trolls like yourself end up disappearing all the time never to be heard from again just like you will after this series. Email after Vegas and Winnipeg goes final tonight and tell me who you like. I can't wait. This is the last and ONLY time you will get any response or space here. Now, go buy a six-pack and drink it with your mother. Loser.
May 10, 2018 22:41:28
Kudos to the Jets for learning on the fly and taking down the Predident’s Trophy winners. And props to you for a gutsy pick. Not sure the Jets will have their way with the high flying Knights, but it should be a good series. I’m rooting for Ovie to take his place among the greats in getting his name etched in the Cup.
Chris G.
Thanks Chris but you have it all wrong my friend. It wasn't a gutsy pick at all, it was playing value and letting the chIps fall where they may, something we preach here all the time. We also preach to not do precisely what you did and that's try and predict the outcome of games. You kept insisting that Winnipeg was too "raw" to beat Nashville and home ice would prevail and you kept ripping up tickets when games were in Nashville. Anyone that has any hockey sense or betting sense surely was aware that the prices in this series did not reflect how close a series it was AND that Rinne was shaky as can be. We saw Rask was shaky in Game 2 and laid off the rest of that series because of it. If you're playing favs and trying to predict outcomes, you will get buried and your entire series of messages is a GREAT LESSON for people to not do what you did...that being pressing your bet, trying to make the same prediction over and over and losing, and being emotionally invested in a team, just like you were with the Preds, which clouded your rationale and you are with Washington and Ovechkin, as you stated above, you are rooting for him to get his name on the Cup. For us, it matters not who gets their name on the cup or who wins. In that regard, we don't give a fuck. Hopefully, this serves as a reminder to everyone regarding the cardinal sins of wagering and what NOT to do. That said Chris, we wish you the best of luck always and appreciate the support.
May 10, 2018 22:29:58
While I'm sad to have a future bet on the preds lose this evening, there is a silver lining, and that is to see Chris G.'s bankroll up in smoke. Respect for putting your picks out before the game 7, but trolls always get what they deserve! Excellent pick on the Jets Sherwood, hopefully they can keep in going and break the Canadian Drought.
Thank you Dingle.
May 10, 2018 17:36:49
I thought about hedging on my Predators series bet, but instead am going to go for the jugular on this series. My profit, if they win, is on the line tonight. Nashville -0.5 + 110 for 3.5 units Nashville -1.5 + 190 for 1.5 units Nashville -2.5 +350 for 0.75 units Go Predators!
Chris G.
May 8, 2018 06:14:01
Statement game by Rinne and the Predators last night. They are a resilient bunch to go into that environment and impose their will on a very talented team. Experience is so very important this time of year. It has been a nice run by the Jets, but it comes to an end in the Music City on Thursday. Nashville, Vegas, Washington and Tampa. I wonder what kind of ratings those teams will draw outside of their own markets? Heck, they might not score well in their own markets!
Chris G.
I think I heard this story before, Both teams have been resilient and both failed to put the other away on more than one occasion. We'll see what happens in Game 7. It's a 50/50 shot but Winnipeg ha splayed its best hockey of the year in Nashville in three games.
May 7, 2018 20:19:54
Sure it was a typo of some some sort... Kyle Hendrinks is a right handed pitcher. He may need to become a soft tossing lefty at some point, but for he time being.... Always enjoy your perspective and write-ups. They are very much appreciated.
Just an oversight on my part Scully so thanks for pointing it out for taking the time to send some kind words. Much appreciated.
May 5, 2018 04:17:48
Kentucky Derby, Love it !! Great field of horses ! Sher , I like O’Brien horse coming from Ireland , he only does the breeders cup usually, come be one to watch , let’s see a good race , maybe wort a few bob!!
May 4, 2018 06:23:33
I love it when a plan comes together. Not only did I get my Game 3 loss back, but I also got a sweet tag on the Preds in the series. You could see it on the faces of the Jets players as they left the ice and the fans as they left the building. They have had two chances to take a stranglehold on the series and failed on both occasions. I'll say it again, the young and talented Jets are getting an education in playoff hockey from the veteran Predators and will be better for it next year. The Bridgestone will be rocking on Saturday night! Canada will have to wait another year at least to bring home Lord Stanley's mug.
Chris G.
I'll say it again....The Preds blew a chance in Game 4 when they failed to protect a 3-0 lead and they have been the second best team in back-to-back series now and in almost every single game they've played in the playoffs. They're not as good as you think they are.
May 1, 2018 12:17:42
Bet the farm on the Predators tonight. Double up in Game 4 if they lose. The Jets are going to get an education on playoff hockey from this Nashville outfit. And Winnipeg will be better for it this time next year.
Chris G.
That's one of the best ways to bust a bankroll. Double up if you lose. Nashville can win but the advice can't. That said, I know you're just kidding around, right??, RIGHT???!!
Apr 27, 2018 11:00:55
Curious to get your thoughts on tonight’s Detroit/Baltimore baseball game. Baltimore -125 looks like a funny line to me, I don’t see how Detroit is not favoured ....
Looks too easy. I may have got sucked into it too.
Apr 27, 2018 06:40:12
I've been thinking that the clock was going to strike midnight at any time for the Golden Knights any time now. But after watching them dismantle the Sharks last night, I have changed my tune. I think the NHL is getting their Leicester City. The Knights are too fast, too deep and too skilled for the rest of the league to handle. And MAF is out from Sid the Kid's shadow and is clearly the league's #1 goalie. The strip is going to be hosting one heckuva parade in 6 weeks.
Chris G.
It could happen and it would really be something. An incredible story but I always warn folks to not overreact to one game. Let's see if the same thing happens in Game 2. Remember, the Knights were not so quick, deep talented for the Kings to battle them nose to nose every single game. There's a possibility that the Sharkies pulled a complete no-show and weren't ready to compete.
Apr 24, 2018 12:02:49
An analysis of the Volvo China Open would be great! Thanks. You are the best!
Bob L.
Apr 22, 2018 12:59:46
I think the Celtics will get blitzed again today by the Bucks!
Apr 21, 2018 18:48:50
Sad to report that the search crews in Las Vegas looking for David Malinsky, well known and loved sports writer/handicapper - missing since April 14/18 - has been found dead. Dave the "professor" was well versed in many things as a thinker. You might not know this, but he was busy trying to preserve a species of trees which he loved and apparently died while performing that duty of care he took upon himself. Dave had a particular fondness for Bristlecone Pine Trees and referred to them as his “Old Friends in High Places.” We can now find some comfort in knowing our man David, passed doing what he loved, and is now resting peacefully among his friends.
Steve Bigwoods Lafontaine.
Thanks for update Steve. Very sad story indeed.
Apr 16, 2018 13:54:40
Hey Woody, much respect for your daily picks & gameday strategies...... i may not always agree with all your picks & leans but regardless, you are such a genuine prognosticator i can't help but pull for you. Cheers!!!
Thank you Dawg. I appreciate the kind words very much
Apr 16, 2018 11:35:50
Triple down on the Leafs Brian? Many would see it like more wasted money, but that stock has never been lower than it is today. If you believe in this team, that number is almost a must buy. We always appreciate your wisdom and valuable insights. While they can't all be winners, finding true value is the name of the game, and you sir are a maestro in the industry. Best Regards
Bang on Reggie and thanks so much.
Apr 13, 2018 19:23:34
Thanks for the April 13 2018 Atlanta Brave victory prognostication.
You're welcome Perry
Apr 9, 2018 12:28:32
Good Morning Brian, I am thinking of taking the Kings at 25-1 to win the cup as I believe it's pretty good value. Any thoughts? Thanks.
I'll be taking Vegas in that series but that doesn't mean anything, as I'm wrong a lot of times. If you like them TV, bet them and I wish you all the luck in the world. My take on the Kings will be posted tonight or early Wednesday.
Apr 5, 2018 13:25:32
Hey Brian, very good podcast, looking forward to a great baseball season. Looking through the lines today, I noticed the 6.5 Total in the NYR@NYI game. 99% of the time Pinnacle has better O/U lines in NHL than say Bet365. Bet365 is usually a nickel higher or so but today I noticed Bet365 is +110 for the under and Pinnacle is +107. As you said in your previous podcast...always see what Pinnacle is looks like they favour the Over today.
Thanks RV
Apr 5, 2018 09:18:17
You were fading Estrada again my friend! Lol, I love your dedication and sticking to your plan. And I enjoy following you, a couple of questions, I notice you pick based on starting pitching which I go with also but bullpens today seem to be equally important but unless you really follow one team, hard to track and deem what a manager will do. So why not go 5 innings? In seasons past, especially early I noticed you went 5 a lot. Thanks for any insights
Tom, I will go into this extensively in my next podcast because it's a great question that I will simplify for you and anyone else who might be interested. Thanks!
Mar 31, 2018 13:58:15
Just a word about Casher, who you are fading today. He actually pitched for the Rangers last year, not San Diego. That may not infulence your decision, but if he did pitch in Petco last year, it was only once.
Mar 30, 2018 12:10:00
So do you feel you have a strongest sport you cap and which 1 or 2 is it?
I like money line sports best Tim --- Hockey and baseball but I don't have a best or favorite. College basketball during the regular season might be my best because there are so many teams that the oddsmakers have a hard time posting tight lines on all of them and public perception is usually way off on a lot of teams too. NHL would be my fav but the in-game variance is so great that it makes it frustrating as hell.
Mar 30, 2018 11:13:07
boston bruins playing six games in nine nights from mar. 31st to april 8th any read on that, or is that normal.
Although these guys are in great shape, it's not mormal to be pressed so hard at the end of a long season and trust that the B's will be a good fade down the stretch beginning with today's game against the Panthers. Good luck AJ
Mar 29, 2018 09:41:32
Well done on the New York Rangers. Terrific value!!!
Barry M
Thanks Barry.
Mar 28, 2018 14:35:54
Any other leans on MLB over/under season wins? A nice parlay would be fun. Read you daily. Win or lose your commentary is the BEST!
Robert Lynch
Sorry I didn't get back to you earlier Robert. So much to look at these days and I sometimes inexcusably forget to check messages. Nonetheless, thanks for the support and kind words.
Mar 26, 2018 15:44:33
Great call on LA Kings tonite. You nailed it, easy money
It seems easy at times but it's not. The Kings didn't score one 5v5 goal the entire night. 3 PP goals and the game never felt comfortable. Thanks nonetheless Tom for taking the time to send a positive message!
Mar 19, 2018 15:05:09
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Betting the Sabres again? Don't you like your money? As someone who follows the team very closely be advised that while the Sabres may like Phil Housely more than his predecessor they have not demonstrated any inclination to listen to him this season. Just tune into to the post game show following any of their many losses and you'll hear Housely express his frustration over the team's inability to carry out the game plan. And you are correct in suggesting that Ullmark is the most capable netminder in the organization. But that likely won't be enough for the Sabres to hang with a team as professional about their business as the Predators. If you can get out of the wager, I would strongly recommend you do.
Chris G.
Duly noted Chris but I do not always bet the Sabres. I do however, know that they are way underpriced here or the Preds are way overpriced and that's all that matters to me. I can cancel my wager, as BET365 allows it but I will not so do so. If I lose, so be it but my expectations are to win. Thanks for writing a well-thought out message, as it gave me a chuckle and I know there were no bad intentions on your part. Good luck, always.
Mar 14, 2018 19:45:36
The 2018 CFL Grey Cup LINES are out . I am going to put X # of $ s on the Toronto Argos ( for the X # of months ) . Here is hoping its a value bet ( 7 to 1 ).. As usual thanks for all your daily work Brian .. Your Silent Follower ....
Mr. Baxter
Thank you Mr. B. Always good to hear from you and hope you're doing well.
Mar 12, 2018 21:38:54
Everything you wrote up about the Rangers/Hurricanes tilt comes true right to a tee. Wow.
Scary, huh? Just kiddin.....The teams aren't unpredictable but the final scores are.
Mar 12, 2018 03:05:35
Hey Brian! March Madness is coming up this week. Any bracket predictions just like last year?
I will post a link to my bracket(s) on Wednesday morning.
Mar 9, 2018 16:53:35
Are you doing March Madness and/or MLB pools this year?
d martin
No March Madness. I'm undecided regarding MLB pool. If I do MLB, I'll have details up by Wednesday.
Mar 7, 2018 10:50:16
Non-gambling comment. I see you have posted on Twitter multiple times that "Hard not to root for Mickelson. Dude is relentlessly amazing and determined. An absolute wizard out there almost every week." Yes Phil is a great golfer, however, in my opinion, not a great person. Google Phil and Dean Foods and Billy Walters. Or read the Golf DIgest June 27, 2017 article about Phil and insider training. I can easily root against Phil.
Thanks Daryl. That's really interesting and I will. I recall some gambling issues, as he was linked to some dude that was seriously busted for scamming some big gambler out of money. He was subpoenaed too I believe. Nonetheless, you have alerted some to do some research and I will do that for sure. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Mar 2, 2018 17:44:39
Very nice call on the Coyotes last night Bryan. Keep up the great selections. Your input is much appreciated.
Eddie R.
Thanks Eddie.
Feb 26, 2018 17:27:17
Check your math with the Honda open results. You lost more than you noted.
You're right Bob. I had a 1.26 units net loss when in fact it should be 1.8 units. My mistake was I counted the 0.2 units (x3) loss on each golfer to win as .02 instead of .20. It's been corrected.
Feb 20, 2018 16:19:43
great questions by reid & paul, i was thinking the same on both. great answer by yourself as well. i get good info from you & your followers here. thanks again for providing great information & insight! also, i appreciate posting all comments & giving it back to the trolls!
Thanks Jimmy
Feb 16, 2018 19:44:15
Before I make the bet wanted to see if you have an opinion on the LA Angels over 83.5 wins this season. Last year they finished 80-82 with Trout missing 40 games. This year they signed Japanese superstar Ohtani which could be a monster addition once he adjusts, re-signed Justin Upton who they picked up last year, and went out and got Kinsler and Cozart to shore up the infield. They also get their top starter Garrett Richards back after missing most of last season, as well as adding Ohtani to the starting rotation. I think this team can take the weak west division and with the new additions I don't see why they can't add 4 wins to their total from last season if they can stay healthy. Am I missing something here??
Reid, I think you make some excellent observations and it all makes sense to me. However, I am an under player in totals because of all the inevitable injuries that will occur. Indeed, if the Halos stay healthy, the number looks beatable but Richards has never been able to stay healthy for an extended period. Every spring, a temptation arises to declare the onrushing season The Year. This will be The Year that the Angels break through and make good on the fact that they have Mike Trout. Ohtani reinforces the team at its weakest position (starting pitcher), gives them a viable option at designated hitter when he's not pitching and finally gives Trout a running buddy with a performance level that can potentially come within sniffing distance of his own. It looks good for sur, it has my endorsement and I hope it wins for you but it won't be making my board only because my focus is on unders. GOOD LUCK!!!
Feb 16, 2018 12:19:58
Hi Brian! I've heard you say numerous times in your podcasts that you should never pay to buy an extra 1/2 point or extra point on spread bets which makes perfect sense. I'm with you when you say that if you feel you need of buying that extra point or half point "why even bother betting that game". I would just like to know your thoughts on the flip side of that. Pinnacle also give you the option of selling a half point or point taking back a price. Is this something that you have ever done or considered doing since when you bet a game you feel good enough about it that you expect it to win and cover easily? Thanks again for everything that you do and for helping to teach us to be better sports bettors.
I always add points and take back a bigger price for that exact reason Paul. For anyone not sure what we're referring to here......Let's say Butler is a 6-point fav over DePaul...instead of lowering it to 5.5 and paying moire juice (buying a half point), one can sell points also and move the number to let's say -7.5 and take back +160.....That is something I do ALL the time Paul, expecially in parlays. Great to see you are "on the ball" and it's something I'll discuss in my next podcast. Incidentally, you can find this option in the "Alternative point-spread" sections".
Feb 11, 2018 09:35:20
I took the Coyotes at +115 yesterday on Bet365. As the game went into a shootout, Bet365 offered a cashout option for me for $29. If I would have let it ride, the potential payout would have been $35. I decided to cash out as I felt it was a good deal at $29 for a $16 wager. They usually lowball quite a bit on cashouts and Iwas expecting something around $22. My question is do you ever recommend using cashout for bets going into O/T or shootout?
RV: I think you absolutely made the right call because the payout offer was so close to the winning amount. You caught them napping a bit. If I like the offer, I'll take it but like you said, the offers are usually lowball ones. In this rare instance it was not and you made the right call. If you like the payout going into a SHOOTOUT or OT and won't regret it should you're team win, yes, take it but DO NOT TAKE LOWBALL OFFERS of less than 75% of your actual win amount. That won't pay off over time.
Feb 7, 2018 19:17:08
Hi Brian Great write up for Pebble Beach. Windiest forecast is for 8-10 mph Saturday pm. So although not bad conditions, a slight edge to those playing Spyglass on Saturday. Is it just coincidence that 5 of your 7 picks are playing there? Just Hossler and Reed not there. FMI, the cut is after 3 rounds? Do you think DJ playing with Gretzky will help him? Regards Barryt
Thanks Barry. The cut is indeed after 3 rounds and it is complete coincidence that 5 out of 7 play there on Saturday. Don't know if DJ need any help but we shall see. Enjoy and thanks for writing.
Feb 4, 2018 13:12:59
When the line originally opened Philly +6 I was interested in the Eagles.. But after watching that vsin website all week and hearing all these Vegas sportsbook managers taking massive bets on the Eagles (Jay Rood at MGM took a 3 million bet on Eagles!!) and seeing that line come down almost 2 points I just can't bring myself to do it. Jimmy Vaccarro at Southpoint has been saying all week 3 out of every 5 bets on Eagles as well as 70% of all parlays tied to the over, most Vegas books will definitely be needing Pats and the under here. He just moved the line down to 4 a few minutes ago. I think you're on the right side here, I played a small bet on Pats moneyline myself but look forward to doing some in game wagering more than anything...goodluck
Jan 31, 2018 23:02:59
I've often thought that the reason I lose so many of my hockey bets in shootouts is that I am usually on the dog and the better team has an advantage in the skills competition because they have better forwards and/or goaltending. Is there a database which would have the records of favorites in shootouts since it was introduced?
No, there is not Joel --- that I know of. However, I can assure you with ALMOST 100% certainty that your reasoning is way off. There is no explanation for losing a lot of OT games. I have a really good friend that I've known for 40 years that only bets dogs too and he wins a ton of them (true story). Dude has that luck thing working. Last night I had Sharks. They scored the first two shots in OT and Detroit only scored once with one shot left. San Jose became the first team in the last 170 shootouts to score in its first two attempts and lose when the other team did not also score in first two shots. It's all luck. 7 OT shooters later and I lost that one too. I feel your pain.
Jan 30, 2018 22:36:46
Dear Brian : For a bettor , to bet value, & profit, briefly , what are the major areas to study (e.g.: bookmakers lines, schedules, injuries , weather in football, etc, etc) Nice to hear of your 2017 Results. As always thanks for your every day work...Best wishes for a profitable 2018 . Your Silent Follower >> Mr. Baxter . ps Go Argos Go
Mr. Baxter
Hello Mr B and nice to hear from you again. First off, you can forget injuries and weather (in football) because they are figured into the line anyway. Focus on the market and where the over and under reactions are occuring. Take the Super Bowl for instance....Nobody gave Philadelphia much of a chance against Atlanta and or/Minnesota with Nick Foles. They were a +3 and +3½ dog at home to both teams and now they're priced almost the same on a neutral field against the best team in football. That's an overreaction to its last two wins. That's the market telling us which way to go. We're not predicting New England, we're playing the value and you can apply that to every sport. The market dictates the value my friend. Good luck sir and best always.
Jan 30, 2018 18:08:01
And now Pinnacle too?
No. Pinny is fine. You should see them.
Jan 30, 2018 15:36:00
LOVE the Devils tonight. The ice is going to look tilted. You are so right about that sieve Robin Lehner. I'm on the game, regulation time and alternative puck lines up to -2.5 (i wish 365 offered more!). The gambling gods couldn't have served up a better opponent to take advantage of Buffalo than the desperate Devils. Absolute SLAM DUNK. NJ is going to skate circles around the Sabres. 6 - 1 Devils final.
Chris G.
Jan 27, 2018 10:50:45
Was interested in knowing IF/When you play Fanduel, do you get into the NBA,/NHL if so, which pools do you usually enter (50/50, tournaments, ect)? Thanks
Will, I will cover this in an upcoming podcast. The 50/50's are not worth it so play tournaments instead and I'll cover why in said podcast. Good luck.
Jan 18, 2018 19:07:51
Hey Brian, what happened to Bet365? No more odds or ads on your site?
I received an email from BET365 about a month ago that I will share online with everyone sometime over the next few days. Essentially, they terminated almost all of their Canadian affiliates and asked that we remove all banners and links. That said, they still come highly recommended so there are no worrries in that regard.
Jan 16, 2018 13:58:53
Short, sweet and simply - thank you for sharing not only selections, but your unique perspective in extremely thoughtful write-ups. I hope everyone who stops by understands and appreciates what this site offers. To a great 2018. Cheers!
Thank you so much Scully.
Jan 16, 2018 12:17:47
Hello Sherwood, glad that you will again be doing golf picks. I am thinking of doing a golf bet this week but am confused when my pick odds showed "each way 1/4 1-2-3-4-5" can you explain what this means?
Hi Roland: No need to worry about the 1/4 1-2-3-4-5. When you click on the golfer to win, it will also give you the option to bet a "top 5 finish for a quarter of the odds. Just ignore that or don't "check" that box unless of course you want to bet that. If you do check it and bet it, it will be twice the bet you entered. For instance, if you bet $10 on Golfer A to win and check the box, you will then have two, $10 bets working for a total wager of $20. The first bet is to win at the odds shown and the second bet will be for your golfer to finish in the TOP-5 at 1/4 the odds of his winning odds. I never play TOP-5 because if he's in TOP-5, the cashout option is available and I want more than 1/4 of the odds anyway. Best of luck and I hope this explains it for you.
Jan 12, 2018 14:44:36
Hey Brian, I took Chicago -0.5 in regulation. I know you are taking them on the regulation MoneyLine, but do you not see the value in taking them -0.5 +154? Seems to be some great value there. Thanks and keep up the good work!
There is value in -½ +154 for sure. I just chose to play Chic straight up because it is GREAT value. Both are good bets RV and I probably should have split them up for 1 unit on each.
Jan 12, 2018 12:51:08
Hi Sherwood, Read you every day and appreciate your work. It is simply the best! Looking forward to resumption of Golf picks. Keep up the good work!!
R. Lynch
Thanks so much RL. Golf picks coming next week again.
Jan 12, 2018 01:29:47
Well done Sir. Another solid day. Sweet call on the Loyola +165. I heard / saw your name somewhere several days ago, did the old google search, and walla SPORTSWAGERS.CA. I listened to your podcast that responded to some rather harsh criticism of yourself and all I can say is, you are a man of high moral character. If the world had a few more men in it such as yourself it would be a much better place. As for me, I started betting football then baseball last year, if it were poker I would be playing micro stakes. It is a hobby I have fun with. Looking forward to fallowing you. Keep up the good fight n keep on cashin’
Thanks so much Richard for the kind words and for taking the time to send them. You have a good approach to what you're doing and we wish you the best of luck, always. Welcome and stay in touch.
Jan 11, 2018 11:57:29
Jackets -0.5 +125 and -1.5 +220. EASY MONEY. Sabres fighting internally, have tuned out their coach AND are starting an AHL goalie. CBus ROLLS.
Chris G.
Never easy. Although you gave us an easy winner with Winnipeg over Buffalo before this one.
Jan 11, 2018 10:19:30
Any PGA picks this week?
No Jon but keep an eye out. We'll have more soon.
Jan 9, 2018 23:49:22
Another great podcast Sherwood, keep up the great work
Thanks much Mike.
Jan 8, 2018 17:15:28
Sherwood, long time since I have written as it has been a tumultuous year. Just read your UGA/Bama write-up. As always thanks for the thoughtful considering and great information. You wrote "There is nothing suggesting this is going to be a shootout and much more suggesting that it’s going to be a grind it out, 13-10 like game." Why not put out a play on the UNDER? In advance, thank you, and good luck.
Not a bad bet at all Scully but I rarely bet totals, as sides provide more value and I'll stick to that here. Best of luck and thanks for writing again.
Jan 8, 2018 15:15:08
Smart is a big reason for Saban's records versus assistants? That's hilarious you bum
Is that your writeup? If so, best of luck.
Jan 8, 2018 12:24:01
Here is a future bet Oprah at 12-1 for president in 2020.
Barry M
It's not bad.
Jan 7, 2018 21:08:04
You need to start betting regulation time draw on your NHL picks. At roughly +325 odds, you'd be cleaning up big time. Hang in there Brian, the puck has to bounce your way soon in these OT games
Dave with 20% of NHL games tying over a 20-year sample size and thousands of games, that's a 5-1 shot of it tying, therefore taking back 3-1 or so would not be profitable. Ever.
Jan 6, 2018 15:51:44
Happy New Year Brian! Great new podcast. I wanted to add some research I did for anyone wondering about how many games are going into O/T in the NHL so far this season. There have been 633 games played thus far, with 154 of them going to OT or a shootout. That is a percentage of 24.32%. So basically one out of every four games will go to extra time.
Thanks RV but that's this year so far. Take the past 25 years and it's much closer to 20%. Thanks for sharing this info though, as it is important and even consistent to what we're preaching.
Dec 31, 2017 00:31:34
Sherwood, first of all HAPPY NEW YEAR! Next why are you not on radio getting paid, I'm gonna personally keep bugging Fan 960 Calgary, the morning show with Boomer would love you. Fan 590 Toronto needs you, their problem, Your insights are incredible, thank you. Last, I continue to read what you have to say about our Calgary Flames, what in your opinion should happen, changes or no changes should be made? Thank you again Sir for great insights at no cost to us the readers, have your usual success in 2018. And hey, some more CFL because you rock and Momma likes new shoes!
LOL, thanks for the kind words Tom and Happy Hew Year to you too. As for the Flames, they have an egomaniac in Brian Burke having too much say. I like their coach, I like their defense and I like the top-6 but depth up front is an issue they may not be able to overcome.
Dec 30, 2017 11:30:27
Have to side with Penn State on this one. PAC 12 teams haven't had the greatest showing so far whatsoever...Also, Penn State has played the tougher schedule by far. Sure their last 3 games were against puffs and their running game might be stuffed today but look at the points they put up against these defences - OHIO STATE 38 - MICHIGAN 42 - MICHIGAN STATE - 24. You can't overlook that. Gotta side with Penn State. Should be a close game regardless. Good Luck Brian!
It's not unusual to see two sports bettors disagree. It happens all the time. Your points are duly noted Adam and I wish you the best of luck too (except in this game of course)!
Dec 30, 2017 09:31:17
Louisville, Memphis and Miami are the plays in the NCAA today.
I hope you go 2-1 Joel.
Dec 29, 2017 09:11:01
I'm on Texas A & M today. Superior athletes on both sides of the ball, more battle-tested AND the senior class has yet to win a bowl game. Star receiver Christian Kirk says the Aggies have a "chip on their shoulder" going into this one. Look out Demon Deacs!
Not sure I agree that A&M is more battle tested but I like the play Joel nonetheless. I believe you're getting some great value with A&M but it'snot going to make my board because I like other games better. Good luck and happy NEW YEAR.
Dec 27, 2017 22:54:04
Nice call on Purdue.Rich Rod's brand of football didn't fair so well when he was coaching there with more talented teams.
Thanks Tim, although you were a little premature on that, as the Boilers needed a late TD to win it. It's never that easy, is it? (Tim sent this message at halftime with Purdue leading 31-14).
Dec 27, 2017 15:54:00
Very nice hitting all your NFL Futures! Good luck in 2018
Thanks DH. I appreciate that very much.
Dec 26, 2017 09:09:17
Happy holidays Brian. If your selections are made, would you mind posting bowl games days in advance? I would like to parlay your picks and don't want to be on the wrong side in upcoming games.
Thanks Joel. I will do my best but one of the criteria I use is seeing where the late money goes and although that isn't everything, it really does matter in these Bowl games because so many casual bettors get influenced by what they are reading. I will try and post a few in advance but I can't make any promises. Best of luck!
Dec 25, 2017 17:08:42
Merry Christmas.
Barry M
Thank you Barry. Same to you.
Dec 23, 2017 21:55:27
Just read your Rams future post. Man you were on it EARLY in the season!! Impressive as hell. Also, Go Panthers!! Look at the lineup of wins this season. Great value to make a run in the postseason. Cam has been fantastic at the exact right times all year.
Thanks JA. With all due respect, I have a hard time getting on board with the Panthers. Cam isn't fantastic, especially between the ears where it counts most come playoff time. Newton has the body, arm strength and mobility but the brain doesn't match the body. You sound like a fan though and if so, I hope your team goes as far as you want because I could not care less who wins and who loses. Thanks for writing.
Dec 21, 2017 00:57:52
Is it worth having a Tennessee/Seattle money line parlay this week to hedge against the Rams division win bet? Current odds around +900.
Absolutely Ben and a great and smart suggestion by you. Thanks for sharing, as I'll post that up as an official play this weekend.
Dec 19, 2017 15:58:07
Hi Brian. Any concerns that the Islanders and their fans might be extra amped up for tonight's game following the announcement that they will be staying in NY and getting a new arena? Also, the Bruins at -127 looks too good to be true. They should steamroll the Sabres.
Not going to deter me Joel. Islanders have to score five times to win usually. Bruins do look easy tonight.
Dec 19, 2017 15:44:20
Brian, Thanks for all that you do. Love the analysis of hockey. Yours is my favorite betting site. But you have got to quit betting against the Predators. The analysis sounds good, but by my count you are 2-6 betting against them. Yes, they are a lucky team. But I'm sure you have heard the old saying, "I'd rather be lucky than good". Keep up the good work.
Thank you Michael. I appreciate the kind words! Regarding the Preds, DULY NOTED but no promises.
Dec 19, 2017 12:06:22
Sherwood Happy Holidays to you and your family. Congratulations on another great year. What you do day in and day out is remarkable. No one I know can believe that anyone can show a profit while winning 46% of your wagers with over 1400 plays. Just goes to show the value of VALUE. Your approach to sports wagering has helped me immensely. I don't always win but I know when I play I have the best value. Thanks again.
Greg, thank you so much for the well wishes and for taking the time to write. Your message made my day, as it is gratifying to know that we helped you become a better sports bettor. Happy Holidays to you too. Keep up the good fight!
Dec 19, 2017 10:01:46
Great sweep of the board last night Brian! I added Colorado over Pittsburgh at home as well and went 4 for 4! :) Happy Holidays to you and your family!
Thanks RV. Nice add in there! Best wishes to you and your famioly as well and I really appreciate the time you took to write.
Dec 15, 2017 13:30:55
Hi Sherwood, Wanted to know you're thoughts on tonights Leafs vs Wings NHL game? I really like the RedWings tonight?? Toronto has played a lot of games recently and RedWings off that bad loss to boston ? Any insights? Thanks
Sorry I didn't get to this on time Mike. Hope you played it.
Dec 14, 2017 14:01:59
i'm wondering if playing in that deep snow may have a positive effect on the team speed of the Colts ... from 6-8 inches of heavy snow to the fast track at home under cover .
We're going to find out. Personally, I like Brissett very much and I think the Colts will smash an uninterested team like this one. Good point though Rae.
Dec 13, 2017 22:50:36
Sherwood I have the same issue as Shane. 5dimes does withdrawal of 7500 max cia bank wire and 3000 max per cheque. One cheque per week and only 6 times a year for wire withdrawal. There western union is only 380 and there fee is 40 each time. If I have 50000 in the account I’ll be there all year trying to get my money.
Craig: You can use Bitcoin to withdraw all your money and it's not difficult. If you're not familiar with BITCOIN, read up on it, open an account and then it becomes almost like an email-money transfer. It's that easy. I believe you can withdraw 10K every 48 hours with Bitcoin so it's worth it for you to take the time to learn how it works. I hope this helps. Let me know how you make out.
Dec 12, 2017 15:38:34
Texas still a good pick tonight with Andrew Jones (G), leading scorer out with broken wrist?
Yes Dave, there is a bit of an overreaction to Jones being out.
Dec 9, 2017 14:05:44
time to start fading the canucks with horvat out, he is the stick the stirs their drink!
You might be right.
Dec 8, 2017 10:05:32
Sherwood I have recently went on a run ( thanks to your onsite and some of my own) my account at one of your books is over 60000 and I’m having a difficult time retrieving my cash as they will put limits on withdrawl amounts. Why is this and is gambling on sports with these sites illegal in Canada?
Shane, please email me at if you are still having issues and I'll do my best to help you out. Getting your winnings should not be difficult. Gambling in Canada is NOT ILLEGAL on any site.
Dec 7, 2017 15:04:15
Eric Comrie will be in net for the Winnipeg Jets tonight's vs Florida
Interesting. Thank you. I still like Winnipeg though
Dec 6, 2017 04:01:52
Another great night in college hoops. How did you miss Creighton for the all Nebraska trifecta? Just kidding keep up the great work. Still waiting for a Quinnipac or UC Davis recommendation.
An all Nebraska trifecta should have been on the menu! Thank you Greg. We dig deep every day to try and find something of great value and my colleague @matthewfinnie helps a lot with that process. Onto today.
Dec 4, 2017 20:49:49
Following up on Steve’s comments..I am in my 50’s and I must also state that you are the most insightful person I have ever read in regards to sports betting..I don’t always agree but I always read..Thanks again for the free insight!
I love that you wrote, "I don't always agree but I always read". That made my day too. Thanks for taking the time to write Douglas.
Dec 4, 2017 09:29:03
Hey Sherwood, I just wanted to comment on the recent exchange or attack on you by Andy and Rob. The funny thing is that I had never heard about you until they started posting stuff on you and subsequently came at you with an unprovoked attack. I was following both Andy and Rob when they started but then I started to read your stuff, not just in hockey, and thought to myself that those guys are deranged to come at someone like you that is providing free picks and posting such quality stuff. As an adult in my 40’s and as a sports bettor for over 20 years, I can honestly say that I have rarely read such strong and well thought out analysis on so many levels that is far and above anything by anyone I have read before when it comes to betting. I actually owe you an apology for liking something that one of them said before I investigated on my own, which was not smart on my part. I have since stopped following Andy and Rob and am now one of your many followers. Sherwood, thanks for your hard work in every sport, not just hockey and by the way, you showed a lot more class than those two also.
Steve S
Steve, thanks so much for the kind words and support. Your message made my day and I thank you for taking the time to send it.
Dec 3, 2017 18:02:30
Great pick on Houston under 8-. Next year I'll be all over the Texans. Division, conference, and Super Bowl. I believe Deshawn Watson will be the MVP next year, any thoughts?
Barry M
He's the real deal without question but his stock actually went up afer he was injured because of how bad the Texans have been without him. Odds on Texans next year will be interesting but probably not a lot of value. I'll be betting on SAN FRAN and Jimmy G. Good luck Barry!
Dec 1, 2017 12:22:20
Great calls, again last night.....Seton Hall, Michigan State and LA Kings....3 'easy' wins diagnosed perfectly.....I know you mostly hear about your bad nights, so I wanted you to know that I appreciate you sharing your hard work, every single day....Keep up the great work!
Thanks so much Jeff. I truly the appreciate the time you took to write.
Nov 30, 2017 11:49:05
Morning Brian, are you still betting in play on 365 in the later parts of the third for the team who is up to score an empty netter? I'm noticing I hit a few of them here and there but they are really good value because you usually get +200 or more with 6 minutes left to play.
Absolutely Chris. It's a great bet that pays off frequently. If the dog is up, the take-back is even higher at 3-1 so I prefer that the underdog or road team is winning.
Nov 27, 2017 18:06:09
Hi Brian, I can't seem to find the 1st Quarter lines for LAL on 365. Please advise. Thanks as usual for all you do!
Click on NBA lines. Once all of the lines are displayed, at the very top, there are links to 1st Q, 2nd Q, 1st half, etc.
Nov 27, 2017 13:52:50
Im not sure about the credibility of these stats, i was hoping you could shed some light on whether these are legit stats or not but according to the Jets are taking back 88% of ML bets despite the line movement heading the opposite direction. Do you ever follow that site and do you know where they get their numbers from?
I do not follow VegasInsider or any other of those sites that claim they have that data. The proof that it's all bull is that every site has different data for the exact same games. The line movement tells me where the money is going and that's what I use. I also like to use Covers consensus because those are real people making contest picks but it's the best representation that I've found of the real market.
Nov 23, 2017 15:56:45
I'm loving this contest - Thanks for holding it.
Nov 22, 2017 19:41:35
Nice to see you having finally come around to fading the Sabres. EASY money!
Chris G.
Yeah, easy! Never sweated a bead....LOL Keep it rolling Chris!
Nov 16, 2017 18:35:14
Question about Pitts and Elm - half a puck. Doesn't that have to be regulation only ?
Yes. Reg only
Nov 16, 2017 12:08:54
Hey Brian, Nice webcast on live betting with great advice. The discussion focused on basketball and football, and not so much on hockey. But I'm curious whether you consider the NHL to be equally good for live betting? It seems you can get fairly decent live betting opportunities in situations where heavily favoured teams in hockey are down by a goal or two against an inferior opponent. Especially when this occurs in the first period (and thus sufficient time remaining for a comeback) This scenario results in an opportunity to grab a heavily favoured team at even or plus money...and it seems more often than not, they come back and win the game. I know this approach is in contrast to your in-game strategy in the NBA, where you prefer to grab a dog that is getting significantly more points than the pre-game offering. Thoughts? And great job by the way, your generosity in giving your time and experience to others is admirable! Thanks! Cheers Smitty
Thanks for the kind words Smitty. Yes, hockey is an entirely different animal than football and basketball and there is absolute value in playing the way you mention but you have to be very selective. Teams' that score the first goal win a high % of games because goals are so hard to come by but there are also comebacks almost every night so there is a window of opportunity. A good team taking back 4½-1 down 1 in the third and that is playing well is another opportunity that I've seen many times also.
Nov 16, 2017 06:27:14
Another great podcast Brian. Does the increased juice in live betting make it difficult to overcome in the long run?
Thanks Mike. Great question that I should've covered in podcast. The edge is so great if you play my theories that the juice absolutely can be overcome. I've been hitting at around a 68% clip since I started playing point-spread LIVE LINES.
Nov 15, 2017 19:01:03
no games listed on the site.....not sure what EOG thread is but would like to pick NYR & BOST tonight if possible....thanks
Done. Those plays are officially in
Nov 14, 2017 21:54:58
Sabres and Coyotes have 7 wins combined in 38 games. And 1 of those came when they played each other. Loser lose. That’s just what they do.
Chris G
Nov 14, 2017 21:52:59
Sabres and Coyotes have combined for 7 wins in 38 games. And 1 of those is from when they played. Losers lose.
Chris G.
With all due respect Chris, you're wrong. Losers lose, yes but they also win games and both Buffalo and Arizona are playing well enough to win as many games as a bunch of other teams in this league. If losers lose, fade Arizona and Buffalo every game. Under your logic, you are bound to make a bundle. Chances are you'll get killed because you will pay a bundle to fade those teams.
Nov 8, 2017 18:44:10
Hey, me again! Been monitoring NYG / SF line, and, for no reason I can see, it's gone from pk to -2.5 Giants. I have no idea why, possibly the "Public team" factor for New York? Would be interested in SF if it gets to 3 or more. Am I missing something obvious here? To me these teams are equally as awful, and there's no way I'd lay points on the road with either, in this case NY. Any insight? UK greg.
There was speculation that Garoppolo would be starting for SF. When Kyle Shanahan said Breathard was starting again, the line moved in Giants favor. Eli Manning at least has won some games in this league and had pedigree but I'm with you Greg, G-men favored on road is VERY unappealing. San Fran may make our board by Sunday on the money line.
Nov 8, 2017 15:44:03
Why is the MNF game bet loser on GB +2.5, not graded ?
Because it was not an official play. We clearly said it was a recommendation only and NOT an OFFICIAL PLAY.
Nov 7, 2017 18:42:38
Hey, hope you're all good! Just been taking a look at the early lines for week 10, not much really catches my eye with the exception of the Colts / Steelers game. 10 seems generous to me. The Colts aren't great but have a tendency to hang around in games, and Brissett isn't all that bad. Also, from my experience dealing with the Steelers, they're a different proposition on the road, with a tendency to "play down" to the level of their opponent. Just can't see a 10pt spread being covered, would love to get your thoughts! Thanks, UK Greg.
Greg, I personally think you are right on the money. Steelers are always vulnerable against weak teams because of their propensity to play down to their opponents and this game will very likely make our board this week. Good luck man!
Nov 3, 2017 22:19:19
I have been doing this a long time and have never seen that Its plays like that that make you wonder
For those not sure of what this is referring to, it is the safety that FAU coach Lane Kiffin executed or called for at the end of the FAU/Marshall game that turned a winning bet into a losing bet. It's been called one of the worst bad beats in football betting history.
Nov 3, 2017 21:22:44
No returners back for Marshall, quick punt and the clock runs out as the ball rolls. Stupid Kiffin.
It was indeed maddening.
Nov 3, 2017 17:38:13
Any idea why Devils have gone from opening as a +138 dog vs Oilers to +173 as of 5:30pm. I realize Johansson is out with concussion, but don't see why that deserves a 40cent line movement. Unless I'm missing something, isn't there great value on the Devils at this price?
The truth is that Edm is playing very well without the results and Devils are greatly overachieving. The market is expecting a correction
Nov 2, 2017 13:49:36
Following this great site for over 2 years now, all the way from the UK. Any thoughts on the Bills @ Jets tonight? -3 seems soft to me, would be looking to play that, despite the Thursday night factor etc. your thoughts? Great site guys keep up the awesome work! Thanks
It does seem soft Greg, which is why we had a close look at the Jets. It's posted. Thanks so much for the kind words and taking the time to write them.
Nov 2, 2017 13:39:10
Boom thanks for the bailout last nighy
LOL, you're welcome Alex.
Nov 1, 2017 19:10:05
Are you posting pga tour picks this week?
Sorry Jon, no PGA this week.
Oct 25, 2017 09:52:18
Was wondering why the Senators/Kings result is not showing up ? Thanks..
Mineo, there is just a bug in the programming that is being worked on. It will be graded properly once it is fixed.
Oct 23, 2017 08:41:19
Hey Sherwood Nice buy-back with the Vikings. What is a good source or sight that you use to see where the money is going? How were you aware that the money was coming in on Baltimore. It is not always just line movements thanks ahead. Good week again
Alex, there are plenty of sites available that profess to inform you where the money is going but frankly, I trust none of them. I simply follow the lines all week, especially on game day, 2 to 3 hours before game time. For football, between Monday and Friday morning, I put far less emphasis on line movements because it is the adjustment period before the line settles. Game day is when the heavy action pours in and that gives me a strong sense of where the money is going. This is something I will discuss on my next podcast. Thanks for bringing it up and for taking the time to write.
Oct 22, 2017 07:03:00
Is it possible to see the picks made publicly? Thanks
Kings: Indeed. If you go to <P> You can then click on "today's picks". You can also click on any name in the standings to see their picks also.
Oct 20, 2017 18:50:41
Pinnacle unreachable for almost 3 hours now (Friday, Oct 20, 6:50 p.m.) Any info?
Sounds like it was ,ore of a problem on your end Dave. Was reachable for me all day.
Oct 20, 2017 10:50:54
Brian, Thanks for all the info on all sports. Please check the math on the hockey bets from last night. The tally shows +.80 for NJ and +.22 for Carolina. If the bets were split, then you had 1 unit on the money line, which would have paid 1.4 and 1.11 respectively. The puck line bets lost, so net would be +.4 and +.11. Thanks again. I'm a Preds fan. I'm sure that P. Rinne is not as good as our fans think he is (pitched a shutout last nite against Philly), but he is a little better than you think. Most Nashville fans will say he runs hot and cold. That is what makes the world go around as you say.
Done. Thanks for heads up. My bad
Oct 20, 2017 01:57:55
Hey Brian......what is the -5 to 6.5 favorites mentioned in your Tweeter? Why are the bad? Thanks!!!
I'm going to cover it in our next podcast Dave. It's too long a discussion of this forum. Thanks for bringing it up.
Oct 15, 2017 16:11:59
Despite the reservations, still went with Atlanta for the Survivor pick choice. Oh so close. Thought we were on the way for the W with the nice 17-0 halftime lead. Goes to show that anything can happen in a game. All the unknown variables that make sportsbetting unpredictable. At least the +13 came true as seen on the Week 6 preview page. Texans and Vikings took the wins today. Looking for the Rams, KC and the Giants (+11) to get us through the day. Thanks again!
Oct 14, 2017 18:32:50
Posting my picks here since my "Make pick" pages isn't showing any games 10/14/17 Blue Jackets vs Wild OVER 5.5 10/14/17 Capitals vs Flyers OVER 5.5 Thanks You
Oct 13, 2017 20:35:34
Thanks again for all the analysis and tips put out on this site. They are really helpful in making decisions on whìch team to bet on. I do have a question. How come for the week 6 survivor pick the choice is on atlanta but on the week 6 preview its miami +13? Was a little worried about the dolphins catching the falcons flatfooted coming off the bye week, as well as the falcons looking ahead for the game against new england. Is an upset possible? Or just that the spread is just too much for the falcons? Thanks again for all the insight! Also love the podcasts!
APB, I do my Survivor Pick on Thursday because many people have informed me that their pick has to be in on that day and I do my NFL picks on Friday. On Friday, I have a more in depth look into the games and my opinion on Atlanta verus Miami camghed somewhat. I still like Atlanta to win outright but it could be a trouble spot for them. In any case, that's my bad and from here on in, I'll have a closer look on Thursday in preparation for Friday.
Oct 10, 2017 21:53:13
Hey guys. Needles here, just wanted to introduce myself, new here and loving it so far. Hope everyone is having a good year. Quick question, any of you who use these site advertised here live in the US? Is this allowed in the US or depends strictly on the state you live in. Thanks in advance, and thanks for the work you put into the site and the information you provide!
Thanks for the kind words Needles and welcome! The sportsbooks advertised here do not accept U.S. Players except for 5DIMES.
Oct 10, 2017 13:53:21
Hi guys, there's something messed up with the standings on the actual host as it's showing me having made only 2 plays (the ones from last night) when I had already made 4 before then as per the results showing on this page. Looks like the standings might be messed up for eveyone? Sorry - wasn't sure where else to post about it.
Oct 8, 2017 15:49:16
joenunz you are all set to start making picks. Good luck.
Oct 8, 2017 00:16:34
Great call on the over Calgary/Winnipeg NHL my friend. And great insight on being ahead of a trend of overs in the NHL. I've said it before, while I may not always agree with your picks I find your indepth analysis fantastic and I don't know of any other site that does this kind of work. Really appreciate your efforts and hey, put in some CFL buddy, your pretty good with that league!
Oct 6, 2017 21:03:58
SIA now has your Rams bet a available!
Oct 5, 2017 10:00:58
Very nice calls on the NHL last night Brian. Your insight is very much appreciated.
Eddie R.
Oct 4, 2017 00:19:42
Looks good Brian. Can't wait!
Thank you,
Oct 2, 2017 14:06:40
Hey Brian, love what you do for us! Only have sports action in Canada. What online site would you suggest, easiest payouts, safest, fair lines etc. Your advise will be appreciated as usual!
All three of the sportsbooks advertised on my site, Pinnacle, Sportsinteraction and BET365 are solid and you'll never have a problem with any of them. Best of luck Jim
Oct 2, 2017 10:56:14
Hi Brian, Just a quick comment on your Jacksonville vs Jets write up. The 2016 Colts played the Jaguars in a London game and didn't have a bye the following week. Colts played the Bears and covered the spread. Prior to this year, its the only time a team didn't have a bye week after a London game .
Dave O
Thanks for heads up Dave.
Oct 2, 2017 09:57:10
Excellent picks this weekend Brian!...parlayed Houston ad the Jets straight up for a handsome return!....looking forward to next weekend for more logical and in-depth analysis.... Kudos to you!
Thank you Andy.
Oct 1, 2017 22:30:18
Our buddy Larry Ness 60 bucks guaranteed or non guaranteed 36 bucks Twins/Yankees. One game series. wow.
Our Buddy, Larry Ness is a piece of shit. low-life, cockroach that deserves to get spit on and thrown in a dumpster. He should rot.
Oct 1, 2017 10:37:19
Hi Brian just wanted you thank you your analysis and pick on Fresno st. You had 8 college picks and I took what I read was the strongest picks Fresno. Strange thing when I checked at around 9 PM the line went from - 91/2 to - 7 1/2 so I doubled down. Whet do you do when you see a significant line change like that?
Sep 30, 2017 11:44:26
Brian, I am taking a look at the LAD@COL game tonight. Kershaw VS Marquez. I was thinking of taking the Rockies -1.5 +335 at Bet365 using your Colorado -1.5 underdog strategy. Rockies want to clinch. I would like to know if you would go with -1.5 +335 or +167 on the ML as it is Kershaw on the mound. Thanks.
The must win angle holds no weight with me but for Kershaw, this is more of a warm up for the postseason. He may only go four or five frames so I think you have a great position. That's a good bet.
Sep 27, 2017 09:56:24
In game variance in the TB@NYY game. Tampa would have been up 4-0 in the 1st if it wasnt for that beautiful catch in the outfield.
In-game variance was a major factor again. That one play in the first inning changed the entire landscape of that game (momentum shift big time) but at the end of the year, it's just another loss.
Sep 26, 2017 13:32:18
Solid NFL picks this weekend sir. Unfortunately I am stuck with the nonesensical OLG Proline for the time being. Will be opening an online account soon! Keep up the good picks!
Thank you Andy. When the government is the house, you have no chance. Get an account online.
Sep 26, 2017 08:51:00
Bet 365 had Dallas at 2-. Do you still bet with them?
Barry M
Yes, I use BET365 every day,
Sep 19, 2017 15:32:39
September 18 oak at Detroit how do you get a tie? or was it a no play
Angelo, LISTED PITCHERS DID NOT GO. In other words, Jharel Cotton, Oakland's listed pitcher was a late scratch and did not start. Therefore, anyone that bet that game, win or lose, had their bets refunded as a no-play.
Sep 17, 2017 08:51:57
Kudos on a beauty of a Saturday for College Football.
Sep 16, 2017 03:05:49
Hi Brian, another great podcast. Sorry to hear you aren't going to be doing them once a week anymore but it's understandable. Is live betting more profitable in the long run for you? Thanks
For NBA and NFL, I would say it's more profitable but not so much for MLB, NHL or college sports. We'll still be doing lots of podcast Mike and we appreciate the support.
Sep 15, 2017 14:25:04
100 percent solid play tonight on Saskatchewan, Sherwood. Piling on
Let's hope it works out!
Sep 15, 2017 10:54:52
This message is a response to Farf. Nothing personal against you but either option is not ideal. You should bet like 15 to 20 game maximum with a 400 dollar bank roll. You're best to keep your 400 bucks and not bet sports.... because whether you turn it into 4 bets of 1 bet in game variance is too severe for you to have a genuine chance at being profitable while betting such a high percent of your bankroll on each game. Personally my worst losing streak was 17 games in a row a few years back. Its hard to believe but a bad losing streak is inevitable. My advice.... save your money and dont bet sports at this point.
Sep 14, 2017 13:19:33
Good afternoon Sherwood! I'm heading down to Michigan for a bucket list visit to the Big House, and was hoping to get an experts angle on a line/total that is quite dramatic. Currently the Wolverines are favoured by 24 points, with a total at 48. Simple math puts the books at 36-12 Michigan... Is there anything relevant from Air Force's 62-0 win over Virginia Military? Anything about AF to make you believe they can hang tight, or post more than a couple of converted TD's at Michigan? Or is the best angle on this to ride the chalk in a low scoring blowout? Any advice or opinion on this one would be greatly appreciated by myself and few buddies! Thanks
I would absolutely take the points and sit quietly and root for AF. Michigan has bigger fish to fry and while they've looked very good, when a team can score and use clock like Air Force can, they always have a punchers chance of hanging around and/or coming in through the back door. As a blue blood, Wolverines are almost always overpriced and that's the case here too. Enjoy the game and I hope you're on the right side.
Sep 13, 2017 13:20:39
Sherwood= As far best return If you had $ 400 to bet. Would you look to make one x $400 bet or four X $ 100 bets thanks
Farf: If I had 400.00 and was given those two options, I would absolutely, 100% make one bet for 400. If I was allowed to continue to bet after either bet, I would play four games for 100 each and try to build my bankroll.
Sep 12, 2017 07:33:28
Hey Brian, I noticed Pinnacle cancelled my futures bet of Central Florida under 7.5 wins. I'm assuming this is because of Hurricane Irma?
That's exactly right RV. All bets are cancelled because they won't reschedule against Memphis and therefore won't play the required amount of games for the bet to be considered action. Might be a good thing to, as I may have underestimated them.
Sep 8, 2017 19:46:33
Sorry about the mistakes. U want Atlanta or Chicago? I have been reading the article u wrote in the Sun and some of the picks are different? Which one do you want us to play? Thanks mike
Mike: I do not write those articles in the Sun. Those are done by Randall the Handle.
Sep 8, 2017 19:23:17
Please clarify Sherwood, do u mean Detroit +6?
Sep 8, 2017 04:08:08
Hi Brian, some exciting news for you. Paul Maurice of the Jets signs a extension lol. What do you think of that?
Dysfunctional franchise. All that talent going to waste. Should be interesting.
Sep 7, 2017 16:43:14
Hi Brian Just want to let you know that I read your column religiously and I do not make a pick without checking with you first. If you pick something that to counter to my pick I will just simply not bet . I ve been doing a lot of second half betting lately what do you think of this strategy ?
Thanks so much BQ. I think it's a great strategy, especially for playing middles. We wish you all the success in the world. We even have an article in our Betting Advice section regarding halftime wagering and here is the link:
Sep 7, 2017 14:12:12
Nice pick on the Tigers. You were spot on.
Barry M
Thanks Barry! (BTW, he's referring to our season win total on Detroit to go well under)
Sep 7, 2017 09:30:45
Looks like Pinnacle is about a half point below Bet365 in the NYJ@BUF game and a full point below on the PIT@CLE game. Interesting.
Always pay attention to Pinny!
Sep 7, 2017 07:43:39
Never met you Brian personally, but I always follow your picks and educational podcasts. In my 40 years of sports betting I never met someone that is willing to put so many hours so other bettors can benefit from it with picks you can win and lose but to educate bettors is always a win-win situation and I just hope they will follow your educational podcast. For years, sports bettors have had a bad name (gamblers, selling picks, etc) but you're really changing that and showing that yes, you can be a sports bettor but also a human being, create a bankroll slowly (not trying to be a millionaire in a week) and have fun. Good luck and well done.
Drorz: Thank you so much for the kind words and taking the time to write. Your email made my day.
Sep 7, 2017 03:34:48
Tell us how you really feel,about trends Brian! Lol.😜😜😜
Drives me crazy when people bet a game because of them!
Sep 3, 2017 18:58:30
Brian, Been following for about a year now and love your angles and your write ups. It's helped me better decipher info and find value where I can. (Diamondbacks doing us nice this series:) Just a quick question...What is the reasoning behind why you never, or rarely, pick Over Unders in any sport? As an amateur gambler I am genuinely curious. P.s. Also, love when you pick me to win a PGA Tour event ;) "Jay"
Jay: First, thanks for the kind words. Glad to have you as a reader that is benefitting from the info we provide. Regarding totals....I get asked that frequently and there are two reasons why I rarely play totals. 1). I find there is much more value on sides and 2), Totals have never been good to me so I focus more on sides. I am always aware of the total, however, because there is information within the number that could sometimes help with picking a side. Best of luck!
Sep 3, 2017 13:24:40
Hey Sherwood love the parlay strategy, I was wondering I'm in the USA so I don't have access pinnacle or bet365 which other book can I use to utilize the strategy. Regards
Any book that deals reverse run lines in baseball. I know that 5Dimes and I'm pretty sure most other books do too. Best of luck!
Sep 2, 2017 14:20:32
Kent state absolutely destroying Clemson through the air. Holley on fire. Already thrown for 1 yard and we're only just about to finish the 3rd quarter. 😂🤣
Brutal display. Just brutal
Aug 28, 2017 17:13:20
Hey Brian, looking at the Red Sox @ Jays game tonight, BOS +104. Pomeranz vs Stroman, any thoughts?
Small lean to Boston but I think it's priced about right. Good luck RV
Aug 26, 2017 12:15:57
Brian, You are absolutely on the right side with BC today. I'm from Ottawa and a season ticket holder and our DB's are severely overmatched in this one. BC gets Burnham and Moore back and they stir the drink and make their overall 4 receivers (Williams and Arceneaux) too much for Ottawa to handle. Williams will be playing his former team for the first time and you'll know will want to have a big game. I played BC over 26.5 points on team total as it gives me a bit of safety in case Ottawa prevails in a high scoring battle. The strength with Ottawa remains their offence as they are starting to get guys back from injury.
Aug 16, 2017 18:16:40
Hey Brian, I am new to Bet365 and the cash out golf option. I am wondering when to take an opportunity to cash out as I am not a golf expert by any means. Will you be posting your cash outs on twitter? Just curious if there is a rule of thumb to go by for cashing out, and also if you use the automatic set cash out option they offer? Thanks and keep up the good work!
RV, I almost always post my cash-outs on Twitter. For more info on cash out, we discuss it on PODCAST 42 at about the 10:45 mark. Here is the link that will answer your question about any rules of thumb. Incidentally, I do not use the auto-set. Best of luck and welcome to golf betting. It's a lot of fun.
Aug 11, 2017 12:28:49
Good call by Joel on the Eskimos last night. It took everything in my power not to take the red blacks. An undefeated team at +2 against a team with one win screamed trap bet at me. This might open the door to get Ottawa at a deflated price next week.
Aug 10, 2017 11:18:01
Eskimos are a lock tonight getting points in Ottawa. Redblacks are in complete disarray and were called out for lack of leadership this week. Campbell is a terrible coach who inspires no confidence whatsoever. Reilly will have a field day against a beleaguered secondary. Edmonton outright.
Aug 3, 2017 10:13:06
Hit 5/10 Baseball ML parlays last night including a push in the Cleveland game. This totalled being up 13 units for the night on the parlays! If anyone reading this site hasn't checked out the baseball parlay strategy video, I would highly encourage you to send Brian an e-mail and get the link. It's truly a great strategy and has hit many times for me this season!
You forgot to mention how fun it is too RV. Small risk, big reward and loads of fun following most games. Thanks so much and so glad you are benefiting. Keep it rolling!
Jul 31, 2017 11:09:15
Took yesterday's 3 BB games straight up for a nice round robin ! Good stuff Man , look forward to your post every day keep it up buddy 👍
Thanks Seosamh
Jul 24, 2017 17:44:09
Thanks as usual for another great job. Enjoy your write ups and your thinking on the baseball games. Keep up the good work.
Thanks very much Rob.
Jul 23, 2017 12:22:15
Hello Sherwood, do you see any value in taking the Braves +309 on the ML? Kershaw isn't God and he's eventually bound to have a bad outing.
RV..I'm not a believer in the "due to win or lose theory" but I'm a big believer in anything can happen. L.A. could figure that all they have to do is show up here and get caught napping. Maybe Newcombe throws a gem and/or the Dodgers bats are cold today. So, yes, at 3-1 or more for a baseball game, that's very good value.
Jul 21, 2017 11:43:38
Matt and Brian, Listened for the first time yesterday to episode 43 podcast. I always try to learn something new everyday regarding sports betting. Your discussion about never buying the 1/2 pt was very informative. Have you done a previous episode covering teaser bets and when or if you should use them?
No Name
Thanks very much. We have not done any segments on teasers but we are going to do devote an entire show on teasers before the start of the NFL season so stay tuned.
Jul 16, 2017 20:44:26
Glad to see you are having a good year once again after a tough 2016, the world is back to normal, keep up the great work, we appreciate it
Thanks for the taking the time to send that Tom.
Jul 15, 2017 12:20:08
Very nice call on the Als last night Brian. Looking forward to reading more of your posts.
Eddie R.
Thanks so much Eddie.
Jul 7, 2017 22:59:52
Mike O'Shea might be the CFL's worst coach. Doesn't challenge anything, won't go on 3rd down despite his defence being carved up by Bo Levi and made no adjustments to counter Dickinson. Brutal. Just brutal. Fade the Bombers.
CFL's worst coach is complementary. The planet's worst coach is more like it.
Jul 7, 2017 12:36:49
Congratulations on an amazing baseball season Brian. You are killing it this year. Want to know your thoughts on my Winnipeg Jets picking up Steve Mason. I would have been happy with either Brian Elliott or Steve Mason. I think all the pieces are now in place for this franchise to take the next step. Bet365 is offering 50-1 Stanley Cup odds. Have sprinkled some already on them. Waiting on Pinnacle's odds. All the talk before the season already is Edmonton or Toronto and maybe Calgary as Canada's best chance at the Cup. Lots of value on the the Jets i feel. If Nashville can get to the finals with a sieve like Pekka Rinne why not us? Again continued success remainder of the year.
Thanks for the message Puck. Unfortunately, I'm not onside with the Jets. Don't get me wrong, as I absolutely love the talent on that team and have said so many times but until they correct the intangibles, I'm not interested. That means, losing Paul Maurice and never letting him in the building again. That means showing more discipline and not leading the league in penalties every year. That means sticking with one goaltender and letting him get hot. As soon as Mason inevitably has some bad games, Maurice will start the revolving door again. Incidentally, Mason has never done anything except have one outstanding year. He's another Connor Hellebucyk/Pavelec/Hutch and I highly doubt he's the answer. Again, I love the talent but not the culture. That said, I would never discourage anyone from making a bet that they like unless the value was awful. The value on the Jets at 50-1....It's likely worth it with all that talent. Best of luck.
Jul 7, 2017 02:36:52
Brian, I've been a successful sports bettor for a little over a decade, I've worked both sides of the counter. I've also been a capper charging a significant commission amount off the winnings of my clients. You are the sharpest mind I've ever seen in this industry. Just when I thought i knew it all, you've shown me even more to add to the arsenal. I never take anyone's advice on what or when to wager but you're the exception to my rule. Thank you for all your hard work & dedication. It is greatly appreciated. If ever I'm in your area I def owe you at least supper, drinks & a Jays or Leafs game. Cheers bud
Thanks so much Dave for taking the time to write. All I can say is you're welcome and that your message made my day! I'll take dinner anytime you're in the area! Thanks again and best of luck, always.
Jul 4, 2017 20:57:12
We were lucky to get out of that TB@CHC game with the W. I don't know why Kevin Cash kept Archer in that long. Should have yanked him at the 6-2 point with 2 outs in the 5th. Cubbies went on to make it 6-3 and he still didn't yank him. Archer pitched a great game striking out 8 through 6 innings, but you know that feeling you were mentioning in your podcast where you feel things are going south? I was getting that feeling watching Archer stay in the game and then go onto pitch over 112 pitches...Don't even get me started on Colome...the Baseball Gods were good to us today even with Kevin Cash's bad management.
At that point, when it was 6-2, BET365 was offering Cubbies +3.5 runs +1.25 and that was the perfect opportunity to buy back based on instincts. I felt it too RV and it is exactly what I was talking about. You are right in that we were fortunate to hold on but once again it comes down to playing value and letting the chips fall where they may!
Jun 29, 2017 21:29:13
Hey Brian, I liked your podcast especially regarding the money management part. Right now, I'm doing something like this and would like to hear your opinion on it. $1,000 bankroll, $10/Unit, usually betting $20 per game. If I get up to $1,250...I change my unit size to $12.50/Unit or $25 per game. Once I get to $1500 or more I cash out the profit and go back to $1,000.00. When I go on a losing skid, and I go down to $750.00 I start betting $15.00 per game. If it's really bad and I go down to $500, I will start betting $10.00 per game. Anyway, I was wondering how you see this bankroll management method? Also, perhaps you could include in an upcoming podcast about cash outs and when you recommend players take their cash? Best Wishes Buddy!
Jun 29, 2017 09:58:51
Wow great job -- you're on fire and great analysis also
It's nice to get some bounces. Thank you JP.
Jun 29, 2017 03:09:54
Nice round robin tonight, thank you buddy!!
Get it while it's going good! Thanks Seosamh, we're glad you cashed some tickets.
Jun 28, 2017 18:40:16
Evening Brian, do you see any value taking the O's over the Jays tonight at +192 on the Moneyline?
Chris, I didn't get this message in time but trust me when I tell you that I look at every game and if it's not on my slate, I'm not interested. That doesn't mean there isn't value. One could find value in many different games but I seek out the best value of the day and post it. Baltimore was a great price last night and of course they could have won so if you see value, by all means bet it and trust yourself. The better info to seek out would be to ask to give you a brief rundown on the starting pitchers, which I would have been glad to do, time permitting. Hope you passed on it. Best of luck.
Jun 27, 2017 08:34:27
Sherwood, I was introduced to your website about four years ago and this is my first time writing because I felt compelled to do so. After 15 years of betting on sports, I actually thought that I knew a few things about sports betting but I was wrong. I knew nothing. You are innovative with your strategies, incredibly insightful with your analysis and even more incredibly generous with your time. I have gone from being a 15-time (year) loser to a winning player all because I have embraced your philosophies. I can’t thank you enough for all that you do and for the time you spend educating guys like me. Usually when things are free, there is a catch but you ask for nothing in return. Class act you are.
Thanks Jeremy for the very kind words. We'll keep trying to spread the good word over here. Best of luck always and thanks so much for taking the time to write.
Jun 26, 2017 10:36:30
Loving the baseball parlays. Cashed in 3 tickets last night, two 16-1 tickets & one 13-1 ticket. If the Rockies would have won would have cashed in on a few more. Truly a great strategy!
Keep it going RV and thanks for taking the time to let us know. Damn Rockies!
Jun 26, 2017 08:26:05
Hi, i watched your parlay tutorial and liked it. Would you be able to post or show what your daily parlays are?
Sorry Jon, that would be too difficult because I play anywhere between 10 and 30 parlays a day and posting all of them is too time consuming. I have provided you with the tools to create high paying parlays/selections and I always use the picks I have posted on this site. Best of luck.
Jun 25, 2017 07:31:38
Very impressive Quadfecta of picks you handed everybody yesterday. Everyone, please give this man a big round of applause as he unselfishly gives our betting public quality picks day in and day out. Much respect Woody, keep up the great work!!
Thanks Dawg
Jun 20, 2017 17:06:44
I just needed to clear the air in respond to the some of the rhetoric that may be targeted at this site. I have said it personally but I will say it now publicly. In a world where integrity is considered a joke by many, this man is transparent. I never met a more honest and stand-up person in this industry. Needless to say Brian is one of the most stand-up people I know, period. Any implications about the banners on this site, I can tell you right now. This man wants you to win and he is an absolute genius at what he does. You will never meet someone like Brian and its a blessing to know him and call him a friend.
You're too kind but thanks so much for vote of confidence and support.
Jun 18, 2017 22:27:38
Cannot access your site off Google Chrome, is it just me?
It's just you Tom. Seems to be working just fine.
Jun 18, 2017 19:35:40
What a call on the golf 🏌, I never heard of the guy but looks like he got it ! Congrats my man
Thanks Seosamh
Jun 13, 2017 01:52:37
KaBoom!! Great night. Your continuing to hammer home the "Betting for Value" strategy has been bankroll changing for me. Thanks Sherwood
Thanks Paul. Great to hear you're turning it around and embracing a different strategy. Keep it going!
Jun 10, 2017 11:58:14
Hi Sherwood... just looking at the lines and today it looks like the Cubs are the play of the day. They've lost three straight and get the Rockies without their full lineup. Thoughts? Best of luck as always.
Cubs play of the day
Money pouring in on Cubbies, which is rarely a good sign. Prefer Rocks.
Jun 8, 2017 18:18:54
Hi Sherwood - I don't get how Pinny NHL OT puck lines work with 1.25. 4.75 etc...Thx as Usual.
I think your problem is that you are on "Decimal Odds" instead of "American Odds". At the very top of the page, even higher than your balance....and on the left, there is a drop down menu. Set it to American odds and then everything else will be clear to you. Good luck Rob and lemme know if that was the issue.
Jun 8, 2017 11:56:32
Hey Brian, can you recommend any decent websites where you find the "under the hood" stats on pitchers like XERA, swing and miss % , etc... Besides betting purposes, would like to use these for DFS as far as finding undervalued pitchers, Thanks, Reid
Yes Reid, go to Fangraphs and then click the "Scores" tab and then click probable pitchers. That will give you a list of today's pitchers. Make sure you set it to 2017 once you get there. You can also look up any player, team, etc. For real in-depth look at any pitcher or player, click on their name. That will give you their pitch mix and many other useful statistics.
Jun 7, 2017 08:17:09
Hi Brian! What are your thoughts on the Nationals/Dodgers game today. Washington currently at +152 with Strasburg going in against Kershaw. Might be worth a bet?
Paul R
Jun 6, 2017 10:30:41
Waiting to see the series price to come out for Pittsburgh vs Nashville. Hoping there is a huge market overreaction to the Game 4 Nashville win.
It's out. Pittsburgh is -130. Two games ago, they were -450.
Jun 6, 2017 08:25:44
When Pekka Rinne hoists the Conn Smythe trophy this weekend will you finally accept that the dude is really a darn good goalie and one of the league's elite netminders?
Chris G.
Have it your way Chris. He's great. That's the beautiful thing about sports, two people can watch the exact same game and see two entirely different things. To me, Rinne is pure rat shit.
Jun 6, 2017 05:02:24
On fire my friend in baseball. It's like reading tomorrow's newspaper today!! Keep up the great work.
Thank you Paul. We'll hope it continues!
Jun 5, 2017 21:56:48
Good luck on your series bet in game 7. These frauds aren't sniffing a victory in Nashville.
Frauds? That's a little harsh. They've been playing hockey for almost 730 consecutive days and the key guys have had about 4½ weeks off during that stretch. One has to appreciate how talented, determined and resilient they are and I'm not a fan.
Jun 4, 2017 14:23:09
Hey Brian. I know you always play value but for the life of me I can't figure out why you're so high on the Pens. You preached about how lucky they were throughout the first two series. They barely beat Ottawa (albeit the Pens were the far better team) and now they've been outplayed every game in the finals. Yet you still see value in them and they're the favourite. To me it seems very contrary to the usual handicapping that I see you use and win year after year. I suppose my question is why do you see Value on the Pens? The only thing I can see is Murray vs Rinne and to be completely honest, that alone might be enough...
Right on Cam. The biggest factor that determines games is goaltending and that is why Pitt will win. It's like having a bad QB in football. To me, the goaltending match-up is like Aaron Rodgers v Jay Cutler.
Jun 4, 2017 12:18:45
The Steelers and Penguins aren't playing today so you have been hacked LOL
Wish they were all that easy. Had to do it!
Jun 4, 2017 09:02:46
It's not too late to hedge on the Penguins. +220 isn't the +425 being offered yesterday, but it remains a value play given how dominant they have been throughout most of the series. The Penguins are gassed and their defenses have been exposed. I'll go out on a limb and suggest the next win for the Penguins will be in October.
Overreaction. We'll be on Pittsburgh next game out.
Jun 3, 2017 08:40:19
Is Ty Blach this year's Marco Estrada? A pitcher who uses smoke & mirrors to grind his way to improbable wins?
May 30, 2017 17:22:32
Hi - I'm thinking about season long wins in the NFL and wondering if you plan on putting out any recommendations. They've been rock solid moneymakers in years past, you can't stop now. Hah. Thanks
We'll definitely have some recommendations Mick. I have two very high on my radar right now so look for them sometime around mid-August.
May 30, 2017 08:06:14
I remember what you said about guys getting maybe 10 grand to fight and those are the fights that might be rigged.....Here's the vid.......
That's great. You guys that listen to the podcast are awesome and we appreciate it so much. Thanks for sharing this. VERY COOL and you guys should watch it.
May 29, 2017 20:59:32
Hey Sherwood, just got home from work. I hoped to post this pregame, but I think you are really selling the Preds short here. The Senators took the Penguins the distance and beyond and Nashville is 10x the team Ottawa is. I'm expecting Nashville to dominate this series and win in 5. Great work on the diamond lately, BTW.
I've sold teams short before Joel, so we shall see. You're not alone in thinking the Preds have a great chance. Best of luck in every other game you bet!
May 27, 2017 17:18:37
Excellent work Sherwood! Smoking hot! I feel like I owe You some money? Killing it Sherwood ! Keep up the great work. Any MLB teams on your fade or buy radar?
Thanks much Mike. My buy targets are Seattle and KC and Miami and my sell targets are Baltimore and Washington
May 27, 2017 03:02:44
Had a great night last night, thanks to you ! Great picks
Really glad you cashed some tickets Joe and thanks for letting us know.
May 25, 2017 18:45:29
Took that Ottawa +491 pick for one unit and decided to hedge my bet today. I highly doubt Ottawa wins in Pittsburgh. The Penguins have been great against them at home. Anyway, if Pittsburgh wins I am up 3.6 units, and if Ottawa pulls off the upset I get a push. Matt Murray and Sidney Crosby on home ice made me do this lol. Great new podcast btw.
Thank you RV
May 24, 2017 11:53:10
Hey Sherwood, I'm trying to figure out the best option (value wise) for getting money down on Nashville to win the cup. I'm having trouble determining if its best to bet them now (+100) or to wait until pitts and Ottawa are done. I picture the line going to a +120ish for Nash if pitts wins game 7. But if Ottawa wins Nash will probably be around the -200 range. I feel like it's smartest to bet now and hope Ottawa wins (not even to mention our series bet 😁) but if you have a spare moment would like to hear any insight you may have.
You are right on the money Cam with your assessment and probable lines for the two possible match-ups. I would buy Nashville now for sure. You get a huge bargain if Ottawa happens to win and if Pitt wins, the Preds will be a very small dog against Pitt. I think you are too generous on the Nash v Pitt match-up in suggesting the Preds will be +120. My guess would be less but even so, you are not off by much at all. Buy it now and best of luck!
May 24, 2017 10:02:38
Further to RV, I took the extra unit at 5-1 on Ottawa last night. Now I have 3 units on Ottawa for a profit of 10.1 units. If I did the math right, I want to freeroll on Ottawa for the original 5.1 wager, I need Pitt -167 or better. 5 units x 1.6 multiplier = 8 units (3 unit profit) 1/(1.6-1) = -167. Maybe this is a bad idea, we'll know when Sherwood puts up a write-up on Game 7. I'm also wondering whether we should bet Pitt to win it all at +125, may be our only chance to get them as a +. Thanks for your advice Brian.
Dave M.
The math looks pretty damn close to me Dave so you put yourself in a good position. I also like the idea of buying Pitt @ +125 to win Cup NOW. If Ottawa beats em, great but if not, you have a great bet in the Cup finals. Best of luck whatever you do but it looks like it's all profit from here. Nice job.
May 23, 2017 09:27:19
Morning Brian, just looking at the lines at I think there has been an overreaction to the 7-0 blowout for the Penguins in Game 5. Ottawa are +124 dogs at home tonight. I believe that the Sens will show up tonight after that kind of an embarrassing game. However, the real value lies in the series price. Ottawa is now +491 to win the series. +491 to win two games with one being at home? Looks like tremendous value. Thoughts?
RV, if you think there is value and an overreaction, by all means bet it. No question there is value on the Sens at this price to win 2 games. The question is can they do it....We shall see but I don't like their chances because they had their foot on the Pens throat once and didn't finish them off. You usually don't get a second chance against a team like Pitt. 2) The Penguins are getting better and healthier with each passing game. 3). Pittsburgh looks too good with Murray in goal. He gives up nothing while MAF was a compete wild card. Those are my thoughts but I could be wrong.
May 22, 2017 11:04:38
Sherwood you always preach about how it is impossible to predict games so you have to bet value. If you keep winning like this it will be hard to think you're not clairvoyant! Keep up the great work.
Thank you so much Cam
May 22, 2017 10:16:30
Nice 5-0 Sunday and very solid bounce back year so far! With all of your codified winning years, your strategy of finding value in underpriced dogs clearly works but wouldn't you be even further ahead if you mixed in a few favourites from time to time? Hope your sweet roll continues!
Thank you Scott. I do play favs, only I play them -1½ taking back juice and in the NHL, I play em -½. In football, we have our fair share of favs too. It's not that I refuse to play favs, I refuse to lay more than 10 cents on a game (except totals or golf) so I'll play them on the run or puck line.
May 20, 2017 11:48:54
Any Preakness selections? Looking at Lee was a great call on derby with a wet track
Ed v
Sorry Ed, no Preakness picks, as I did not have a good look. I will though for the Belmont
May 18, 2017 19:38:40
Great in-depth analysis and pick on today's Pittsburgh Washington game all these so-called experts were screaming Washington in unison but Pittsburgh was the right call! Time to heat it up!
May 17, 2017 17:44:44
Hey sherwood, no love for the sens tonight? underdogs at home.
I really hated their strategy last game Chris. Instead of attacking with a 1-0 series lead, they laid back the entire game and let Pittsburgh without two key players (injured early) dictate pace. No killer instinct and it scares me off them tonight. If they employ same strategy, they'll lose tonight. I really hope they come out and play the way they did in the first two series. I need Ottawa for Series so I'll be rooting for them big time again.
May 17, 2017 12:32:13
Hi Brian! Are there any particular sites that you can share where you can find in depth pitching stats xERA, GB/FB/LD rates, pitch selection and usage ect... Thanks!
Paul R
Yes, I use fangraphs, That site will provide you with all the stats you mention. They use xFIP, which is essentially the same as xERA.
May 17, 2017 11:20:32
What site do you use for xERA or do you calculate it yourself? I can't find any. Thanks
I use fangraphs Michael. They use a stat called xFIP, which is the same as xERA and stands for Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. Good luck man.
May 16, 2017 13:00:12
How come you aren't fading Estrada today?
Estrada's underlying numbers are much better this year so I passed. Also, Garcia's numbers are really bad.
May 16, 2017 09:35:22
Would you mind if in your writeups, you put in a rank of which game would be your key game to do your parlay work? For me to do 10 games for each game you post here, makes me overlap a lot of games and I've had a bit of frustration. I'll watch the video again, maybe I missed something. Keep up the great work BS!
Dave M.
Dave. I do not want to rank my games. I think it's important for you to pick your best game(s) and key it. I usually pick two keys a day, If other games overlap or if you are using the same team twice in add-ones, it's fine. Stick with it and fine tune it. I posted another tutorial on same page so there are two video's to watch now or two different days. Keep us posted. Best of luck.
May 15, 2017 11:37:40
First post - I think you mean you had the Senators...
Thanks Greg
May 13, 2017 11:29:28
Morning Brian, Loving the baseball ML parlays, cashed in on a few tickets already. In terms of picking the third game on the Alternate runline, I started looking at taking all visitors because if the game goes to extras, you still have a great shot of hitting 2+ runs as the visitor in the top of the inning. As the home team, you have to hope for a HR with runners on base. Do you see that as a good strategy? Also, any thoughts on buying a unit on Anaheim to win the series at +222?
It's a good strategy for sure RV and one that I employ often. I'm always looking at the away team for add-ons before the home team for that exact same reason. Glad it's working out for you man. Keep cashing!!!
May 9, 2017 23:11:17
Hello Brian, long time fan, and first time poster. I wanted to ask you if you see sports betting online as being a potential full time job? I handicap now to supplement my income, but I was wondering if there are people out there who bet full time on sites like Pinnacle? I don't think I could handle the swings but just wanted to get your views on it.
Hi Chris: There are certainly a handful of people that bet sports full time professionally. To do so, you need an abundance of patience and discipline. People also "arbitrage" and make a living and play betting exchanges and make a living too. It's a tough grind to be sure but it can be done.
May 9, 2017 15:01:03
Hi Brian, I noticed that Pinnacle removed Game 2 (CHI @ COL) from the Alternate Runlines. Do you think they will put it back up or should I just take the Rockies on the ML? - Thanks.
They are likely to put it up once they get the lineup of both teams or confirm starters. Wait until an hour or so before game time and bet accordingly.
May 9, 2017 10:31:27
Hi Brian - I noticed a typo in your Washington East your write up it indicates 3 units but the footer shows 2 units.
May 8, 2017 18:59:10
Outstanding work with the golf! Doesn't look like the Yanks are resting anyone tonight. They must not want to mess with what is working. I can't see Rookie Davis cooling off those bats.
May 8, 2017 15:01:54
Hey Sherwood, I'm thinking about taking the Penguins at home in regulation tonight. -0.5 is +149 on Pinny. Any thoughts on value there?
I would never take you off a bet SB. There is great value on that wager. Should be a great game and we'll see what the Caps are made of. Wash is the better team on paper, as Pitt looks very beatable these days but no game was ever played on paper and Washington plays "NOT TO LOSE" far too often instead of "playing to win". That said, the 3rd period of the last game was the Caps best period all playoffs and if they play like that, they'll win. I have my doubts they'll play like that though....BEST OF LUCK!
May 8, 2017 12:05:38
When it comes to cashing out on Bet365 do you have any rules to follow? Last night middle of 9th Yanks up 4-1 with Chapman coming in I could have cashed out only losing $.85. Didn't and sweated it out. Last weekend cashed out of a 4 gamer (first 3 were winners) for 3-1 odds in middle of 9th with Colo losing by 2. They score 3 to win 6-5. Made $20 but didn't make $190. Almost yacked. Your professional opinion would be greatly appreciated!!
That is really tough because there are no set rules. That said, I never recommend buying out of what appears to be a losing bet to try and save a few bucks. If the bet loses, so be it. Just remember that if the book is offering it, it is to their benefit and not yours. The best advice I can give you Jimmy is to "TRUST your INSTINCTS" because they are usually right. If you feel a game slipping away, sell before the price gets too low. I much prefer to buy IN GAME than sell. In other words, give me a t3eam that is down two runs at an inflated price and I would much rather do that. Selling In-game is not to your benefit. Actually, that's a great topic for the podcast that we'll cover this week. Best of luck!
May 8, 2017 10:03:42
Beauty PGA picks this week with the winner and 2 others right there Sunday!! Didn't think in game variance occurred in golf but when he pulled out the fairway metal on 18 it almost did. It worked out obviously but that was a terrible decision. My wife wondered what was going on while trying to bbq and win 90-1 money at the same time LOL.
Thanks so much Jimmy. I'm sure that BBQ tasted as sweet as the victory. Thanks for writing.
May 7, 2017 15:59:37
Good job on your Jays pick Sherwood. Very tight game, Darwin Barney of all ppl was the difference.
We got lucky.
May 7, 2017 12:43:24
Good afternoon Sherwood. Not sure I am in agreement with your write up on the Jays-Rays game. Biagini is only expected to throw 60 pitches/work four innings. Jays pen is a disaster and Grilli threw 39 pitches last night and will likely not be used today. Save your money and take the Rays. I'm also on the Brewers today, not sure how many Pitt will be able to score. Enjoy your write ups as usual. All the best!
That's why they play the games. Nice pick on Milwaukee too, Ryan. Both picks were solid and it's obvious you do your homework. Continued success my friend.
May 7, 2017 10:13:47
Thanks for the Kentucky Derby picks. I'm not a big horse racing bettor, but threw some fun bets on both your picks to SHOW. Looking at Lee coming in second more than covered the cost of both bets. Also made watching the race much more fun having a little action on the line. Thanks Brian!
Dave O
You're welcome Dave and I'm really happy you picked up something. Thanks for letting us know. Best of luck, always.
May 6, 2017 14:19:01
Afternoon Sherwood, I have found a free site for the "Air Density Index"..Go to the Neely Scale..Enter in the zip code of the stadium or location and presto, you have your reading...Luv your site..BOL to all..Remember, no one can predict the outcome of games..🙂
May 6, 2017 11:50:15
I've taken a break for a few weeks and saw all those W's. Decided to jump on last night. Only me, sorry for the mush. Stick me in the bathroom!
I hear ya Joe. Sometimes it feels that way. Hang in Bro, It'll get better
May 5, 2017 10:34:23
Hi Brian! Have you ever played or have you ever considered playing an alternate run line game played in Colorado as your "key play" or 2nd game on the parlay strategy or would you just use those games strictly as "addons"? Good job on this week's podcast by the way!
Paul R
Absolutely Paul. I always key the dog in Colorado because most games are won by 2 runs and the dog has just as good a shot as the fav. It's a great play as a key or "second game". Good question and good luck!
May 4, 2017 13:30:10
Hey Sherwood, do you see any value in taking the Sens or the Preds on the road tonight?
Preds are tomorrow Sportsbettor but I do see value on the Sens tonight for sure. They can win and the only reason I'm not on it is because if they lose, they go to being a dog again 9in SERIES and I already have them in SERIES. It's a close series and Sens will very likely be better tonight than they were on Monday
May 3, 2017 17:38:16
Hi, I really like your innovative approach to playing the MLB total....I have checked weather/wind for years but this Air Density Index is interesting....I have used "DailyBaseballData' for my weather reports, and they have listed the ADI (as provided by Baseball VMI)...but ever since you mentioned this, they have removed this info and provide it only for premium accounts. Can you say where you obtain this ADI information every day?
Yes, Jeff, I have a premium account at so I pay for the info. That info you were getting wasn't always accurate at DailyBaseballData. I pay for a service at VMI that allows me to gather information at the exact location or any address in the world for that matter. It's fascinating stuff.
May 3, 2017 00:03:49
Longtime reader, first time poster. Huge props to all the hard work and research you do everyday. Also, your podcast has made my commute more enjoyable and educational. I'd love to hear more about your baseball parlays. Please email the link to me at xxxxxxx
Thanks so much for the kind words Stew. I have sent the link to the parlay tutorial to your email.
May 2, 2017 18:33:46
Hey Brian, any ideas of how to bet tonight's Nashville game? I would never lay -160 on a moneyline period let alone in playoffs. I'm also hesitant to bet 3 way since you never really know and Allen can steal a game like he did game 3... I feel like the best option is to pass since we already have the series but at the same time Nashville should be 7 - 0 and have been getting better every game... so I don't want to pass up on them. Thanks in advance
There's nothing wrong with passing on a game and since you have Nashville in series, you have a strong rooting interest. My gut says the Blue Notes are going to be difficult tonight so I passed too. All of your points are valid so no need to force a bet on a game you don't LOVE. If Nashville wins, you didn't miss out on anything. Best of luck Cam.
May 2, 2017 13:42:16
Hey Sherwood, Great work and write-ups as per usual! My day doesn't officially start until i read your selections. Love the podcast and really enjoying the logic/theory behind your daily baseball total. When you have a moment, can you send me the link to the baseball moneyline parlay tutorial-much appreciated. Keep up the GREAT work! Cheers,
Thanks so much Gianni. I truly appreciate the time you took to write. I have sent you the link to your email.
May 2, 2017 09:46:00
Yesterday was my 4th day playing your parlay strategy and I've cashed in 2 of 4 days so far. Really loving this so far. Thanks again for sharing!
Paul R
Very cool Paul. Thanks for taking the time to let us know and continued good luck. It is a lot of fun to play too!
Apr 30, 2017 18:18:19
Hey Brian, in terms of selecting the third game in the parlays. I've done a combination of about 70% Alternate runline picks and about 30% favourites -1.5 where it pays at least +150. I'm just wondering does it make sense to throw in a few favourites in there for the third game? Thanks.
The idea is to get the true odds and take away the house edge. Adding in the fav takes that away. You can do anything you like but if I play favorites, I always play them -1½ runs and plus money. Use that third spot to pick prices to jack up payout. Good luck RV.
Apr 28, 2017 19:41:49
Great baseball parlay presentation Brian. It really makes so much sense. Thank you so much for sharing.
You are welcome RV.
Apr 28, 2017 10:10:16
Another great podcast Brian. Keep up the good work.
Thanks so much Mike. I really appreciate the time you take to say so.
Apr 28, 2017 09:35:43
Notice you have no takes on Ducks/Oilers so far, any interest going forward?
We didn't see any value in Game 1 Mike or in the series but that changes today. Expect to see something for sure as early as today and perhaps more throughout the series.
Apr 25, 2017 15:42:02
hey sherman, love the write ups! a daily read for me even when i dont bet. can you please forward me the link for moneyline baseball parlays to keep up the great work & i love the "colorado effect", i really think its gonna work!
jimmy mclean
Apr 24, 2017 16:57:18
Hey Sherwood, please send me the link for moneyline baseball parlays. Thanks for all the great picks!
Sent to your e-mail Jimmy.
Apr 24, 2017 13:54:39
Hey Sherwood, please send me the link for moneyline baseball parlays.
Info sent to your email Cam
Apr 24, 2017 12:19:53
Hi Brian...great work on the 1st rounds NHL series picks!! Please send the MLB parlay tutorial. My email is Keep up the great work!!
Thank you Jimmy. Info sent to your email
Apr 23, 2017 20:59:20
Brian : Have you considered trying then Rockies angle on Cubs home games with similarly high totals on days when the wind is blowing out. CUBS will usually be a big fab at home, so nice possibility of really big payoffs there.
Won't work for Cubs games for several reasons. One, the wind is only blowing out hard on rare occasions....Two, the wind or weather reports are unreliable and not at game time. Three, the Cubs are a monster at home and therefore don't lose a lot of games. Arizona's Chase Field and Texas' Globe Life Park are the other two parks you can try this at. Both teams will be around .500 and both parks are huge hitting venues.
Apr 23, 2017 11:43:11
I follow your site every day. Always tidbits of pertinent info win or lose . Kindly send info on money line parlays too. Thanks and keep up the great work .
patrick smith
Thank you Patrick. Info sent to your email
Apr 23, 2017 11:35:48
Hi Brian. I would lIke to get the link for the baseball parlay tutorial. Thanks and keep up the great work!!
You're welcome Jason. Info has been sent to email you provided.
Apr 22, 2017 17:02:00
Brian: A couple of thoughts on the Rockies game Sat. Hard to call a definite dog in this game. The RL and alt RL are both nearly +175. At $100 a bet I would never bet both of them Because a one run game loses $200 but a non One run game only wins $75. Now since these bets are mechanically produced It seems both plays should be +EV, BUT I doubt They are. I suggest that you have a cut off point to eliminate These lower paying plays and perhaps not play it Unless perhaps +250 or whatever.
These are good suggestions Manny that I will absolutely consider. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Apr 20, 2017 23:52:15
Great podcast this week guys. Keep up the good work.
Dave O
Thanks so much Dave
Apr 20, 2017 17:00:20
Name: Hi Brian ... On Bet 365 I can\'t see where I can play Nashville -1/2. If I go to 3 way betting I can see them @ -1. Is this the same thing?
J Stevens
Hi there: No, -1 is not the same thing.....On the 3-way, the very last column...(there are 3 columns) is the -0.5 column. It says money line but it means the same thing. If the game ends in a tie after regulation, it's a loss. So on BET365...3 way lines...there are 3 columns and the third column is -0.5 but it says money line. GOOD LUCK!
Apr 20, 2017 16:46:56
Brian, Big fan of your work, appreciate all you do in educating the sports bettor. Would love to hear your podcast on money line parlays. Please forward link to xxxxxxxx Best, Mike
Thanks has been forwarded.
Apr 20, 2017 16:19:01
Wow Brian, just to touch on Cam's comment below, talk about in game variance this afternoon at the Dome. Scoreless all the way to the ninth, Estrada and Sale were locked in the whole game. Boston goes up 1-0 to end the top of the ninth. Looks pretty bleak for our BOS -1.5 bet, but then the Jays hit a solo homer and tie it. Now we got a ball game but we still need to win by 2. So many different things could have happened, Jays could have hit a 2 run shot. Boston could have won 1-0, who knows. No one could have predicted that kind of a 9th inning...Good call on the game.
Apr 19, 2017 12:41:39
In terms of Game 4 tonight, oh boy does that +128 TOR ML line reek of trap or what? Toronto up 2-1 in the series, they are at home, AND they are a +128 dog on the ML? Come on. The Bruins are down 2-1 and they are -156 at home? Lol. Stay away from the Leafs on the ML tonight...BTW any views on taking St. Louis at home tonight, or you not liking the line? Thanks Brian, and keep up the good work!
I disagree RV. It's not a sucker bet at all. You can't compare Boston/Ottawa to Tor/Wash. Washington was a -350 fav to win series. They rarely lose three in a row, yet alone 3 in a row to same team. People will view the Caps as a cheap price tonight and probably play them. St. L and Minn is tight. It figures to be close and it's priced right.
Apr 18, 2017 11:32:13
Great hockey picks yesterday. It was the perfect example of in game variance you always talk about. Every game went to OT and we could just as easily have gone 0-4. As you say, its all about value and letting the chips fall. Thanks for your insight everyday.
That is exactly right Cam. Kuznetsov clearly had Andersen beat with four minutes left in the third that he rang off the post. Had he buried that shot, Leafs would be down 2-1 in series. That's just one example of in-game variance that allowed us to go 4-0. It is exactly as you describe in that we could have easily gone 0-4 too. Thanks for taking the time to write Cam. You get it.
Apr 17, 2017 16:41:37
Gotta play the Leafs in Games 3 & 4. They are +135 tonight and will be at least that much, maybe more, in Game 4. If we believe they are going to win the series, these 2 bets are no-brainers. A split can make us a tidy profit and if they don't split, they aren't coming back from 3-1.
That's actually some very good logic Joel. Thanks for writing and sharing.
Apr 16, 2017 12:27:09
Very nice call on the Leafs Brian. Keep up the great analysis.
Thank you Eddie.
Apr 15, 2017 19:40:43
Hey Sherwood, I'm looking at taking the preds vs hawks game Under 5 goals +122. Any views on value there? Thanks.
You'll never hear me suggest taking under 5 in a hockey game, ever. If you like it, bet it but if both teams score twice, you cannot win.
Apr 15, 2017 11:32:42
I don't mean to hijack your comment wall Brian :) but I feel I have to comment on this WAS/TOR series again. Great write up for the game tonight, and I 100% agree. Again, Pinnacle likes the Leafs tonight. The proof is in the lines. The Leafs are down 1-0 in the series, which has ballooned the odds for them to win the series from +326 to +604. But wait a second, the ML for them to win tonight is currently sitting at +200. They lost Game 1 but the odds for them to win Game 2 is in the same ballpark as it was in Game 1?! The series price balloons +278 but the ML game odds stay the same? Clearly Pinnacle really likes the Leafs tonight.
Apr 14, 2017 16:42:03
Well Brian, I was wrong. I will admit it, however, I believe my analysis was correct. It all came down to in game variance. The Leafs were fully capable of winning that game, and Pinnacle was on their side.
Apr 13, 2017 14:57:39
Interesting how the Leafs are +326 to win the series on Pinnacle but only +205 on the ML tonight for Game 1. You compare that to NAS VS CHI where the series price is +152 for Nashville to win the series, and +150 ML to win Game 1. With those lines and as the Leafs are bigger underdogs on paper, they should be closer to +250 to +275 on the ML tonight. With all of the Washington hype of running over the Leafs, this line makes no sense. This kind of line tells me Pinnacle likes the Leafs tonight, and anyone betting on Washington should do so with real caution.
Apr 12, 2017 14:11:02
Hey Brian, any thoughts about taking the Sens at home tonight? +118 OT Included seems like good value for the home team.
The Sens offer great value Chris but I would much rather bet them @ +160 for series than much a lesser amount in GAME1. Both are good though. My lean is series plays and updated series play. If Sens win, the series bet instantly has even more great value. If Sens lose, I'm still alive in the series bet and could even add a unit at probably +280 or so. If they look good in losing, that's a great option. Series bets gives us better options throughout so we'll see how it all plays out. Good luck.
Apr 11, 2017 15:39:01
Hi Brain, when are you doing the baseball seminar. Thnaks
I'll have it posted by next week at the latest Mike.
Apr 11, 2017 03:48:54
Great call on the Padres! Or should I say on your new intuitive, innovation and out of the box thinking concerning the Rockies and Coor's Field! Great idea, and it worked Monday for a nice payday! I am wondering what you will do with your 'buddy' Jered Weaver pitching for the Padres on Tuesday?!? Interesting conundrum for you! Keep up the great work!
Thanks so much Jeff. As hard as it is for me to back Jered Weaver, it must be done because there is no thinking involved. You can't pick and choose. We'll have to plug our noses and hope for the best.
Apr 10, 2017 19:32:20
Brian: Have you backtested this Colo alt. runtime angle over a large sample?
Good question Manny and you'll have to be the judge yourself. I bet it all of last season as a tester and profited nearly 48 units on the year. Is that a small or large sample size? I would have to say small but large enough to put it out there this year and allow readers to make their own decision.
Apr 7, 2017 12:45:54
Any love for TB as a dog today. I think you backed Andriese many times last year with his great offspeed pitches. Tor loved to swing and miss last year. Thoughts?
There is no question that Tampa has a good chance to win today. It was very close to making my board. It's good value for sure and the only reason I didn't post it was because I liked my other 3 slightly better.
Apr 7, 2017 03:56:48
Dang, you know golf! I gained much knowledge from your informative Master's post. Thanks! I didn't get a chance to watch today but plan to this weekend. Just wondering after Day 1, do you have any new leans? You rock, man.
Thanks Brutus, I think Henley is worth a bet at odds of 35-1 or thereabouts. Enjoy the rest of the event and best of luck!
Apr 4, 2017 16:35:59
Is betfair back up and running for Canadian customers?
No. Curious as to why you would ask that. Did you see or read something?
Apr 3, 2017 14:20:46
I'm surprised you aren't on the Orioles with Estrada pitching. Go Orioles
Orioles were favored and I didn't want to spot a price. I also knew that the air density levels were high meaning a heavy air and balls would not carry. I'll be targeting Estrada when the time is right.
Apr 2, 2017 21:58:41
Keep the pga tour picks coming. Great work breaking them down.
Thanks Jon
Apr 2, 2017 17:58:55
The RH pick was awesome but the tweets were even better...informative an hilarious..."vicious gash smash down the middle" ...CLASSIC. Thanx for a profitable and fun Sunday afternoon!
Thanks Jimmy. It was a fun afternoon for sure and I enjoyed tweeting out the "play by play"!!
Apr 2, 2017 15:25:17
Love the podcast t helps me in the winter when everyone I know is betting basketball ball while I bet hockey. Is there a possible time table for the MLB parlay webinar? Thanks for the hard work you do for all of us for free. Never pay for picks.... but sell 'em if you can!
TC in TX
I will have the MLB baseball parlay tutorial this week for sure TC. Best of luck and thanks for the kind words.
Apr 1, 2017 07:35:21
Thanks for posting the season total of Detroit Tigers Under Season Wins. I know you said there might be more to come. Since the season starts on Sunday, do you know if you will have anymore? If so, can you tell me so I can play them? I am a huge fan of your season totals in all sports.
There are a couple more that I like but not as much as the Tigers so I am not posting them. I prefer unders as oppose to going over a number but if you don't mind playing overs, I think KC is being sold a little short at 76.5 (depending on where you play) as that number is too low. The Phillies at 72.5 is also too low while the Dodgers may be a bit too high. I will post the Royals unofficially on my facebook page and provide a link to it on TWITTER but it will not be an official play. Just something else to read and consider. Good luck John and thanks for the kind words.
Mar 27, 2017 10:13:04
Hi Brian, big shoutout to you and all of the hard work you put in each and every day for FREE! I would like to ask you a question regarding bankroll. I have a bankroll of $1,000, betting usually 2 units each game which is $20 per game, and 2% of my bankroll. I am wondering, if let's say I go up to $1,200.00, do I start betting $24 per game, and likewise if I go down to say $700 would I start betting $14 per game? I am wondering at what point do you raise your unit betting, lower it, or ride it through at the same $20 wager? Wins and losses and fluctuate so much. Thanks - Rick.
Rick: Sorry I didn't respond earlier. What you should do is calculate your bankroll each day and then bet 2% of it on each play. If you are winning, the amount with increase on its own each day and if your bankroll is decreasing (losing). your bets will decrease on their own.
Mar 23, 2017 20:19:07
NHL futures looking great. Will uu have some MLB ones
Yes Michael, they will be posted this week beginning today (March 27).
Mar 22, 2017 12:01:09
Can you explain your logic for passing on TCU last night when the line moved from -7.5 to -8? I know I risk like sounding like a Monday morning QB but I don't see the risk in laying an extra half point if you've already done the investigation/research and came to the conclusion that TCU at -7.5 was the right play. When making a wager I would assume the diff between what you're perceiving vs. the actual line is greater than .5 point, and at worst you are pushing if it ends on 8. If you weren't going to wager unless it got to -7 that's another story, but seems silly to me to write all that up, only to pass over a half a point. For what it's worth I took TCU and thank you for the recommendation, keep it up!
Sure Mike.....It's not the half point that bothers me. It's that I missed the best number earlier in the day when I could have gotten it and that is the only reason I passed. I rarely play a bad number when I can help it and when I anticipate the line moving the opposite way. Glad you cashed and I hope this clarifies my position.
Mar 22, 2017 09:24:45
Sherwood, I have one word to describe you INTEGRITY! Over the years you post your analysis and win, lose or tie publish the results. What people don't realize is that on some of your selections when you post you may be laying 10 points. However things change and later the line has changed to 9 1/2 or even 9. This happened with Purdue twice this past month where you layed a number on your website and the line changed in your favor both times. However because you have INTEGRITY and both games ended on the number you posted you counted them as ties. There have been other occasions where you have counted a game as a loss when the posted number on your website is different than the number later in the day and the game has been a winner. Nobody does that and I appreciate your honesty and integrity. Again last night you didn't like the way the line was moving on the TCU game so you cancelled your pick. Even though they won and covered you won't count it as a win. You are first class and keep up the good work.
Thank You GREG! I appreciate the kind words very much and the time you took to write them. What all the frauds (touts) never understand is that the only way to change the game is to be 100% honest about what you're doing but they NEED money to survive and therefore lie to get it
Mar 20, 2017 21:07:30
Sherwood, it came down to the wire, that was a great pick (UCF). Great value as usual - that may be one of your top value picks in the last month. Any Dell match play picks coming? Jon
Thanks so much Jon. Dell Match Play picks will be posted on Wednesday.
Mar 19, 2017 20:48:28
yes, that was the article... thanks for the link! When I first started betting I was your typical sports fan who liked to bet on the better teams that I knew, typically the favourites. But coming across that article 5 years ago turned the light on and completely changed my philosophy and I can't even begin to describe what a difference it has made for me! I'm now about 80% dogs in NHL and MLB, any faves I do play on are done at -1 or -1.5 to bring the odds into my plus money zone... Just wanted to say thanks for writing that and would highly recommend it to any new bettors...
Thank you Reid. Your message made my day. Best of luck friend.
Mar 19, 2017 15:09:02
Hey Brian, I'm trying to remember if it was you that wrote an article about 10 years ago or so on the value of playing underdogs. It was something to the effect of if you bet 1000 games a year and were able to go 50/50 on those games with average line of +110, then you finish +50 units on the year... +120 = 100 units profit...etc.. Great picking and goodluck with the rest of the tourney
Of course that article is in the "Betting advice" section titled Money Line Dogs are a Must Play". Here is the link to that article:
Mar 19, 2017 11:04:37
To say that you're zoned in on these tournament games is an understatement. Yesterday's games went almost as though you had scripted them. Congrats.
Thanks Bubba
Mar 19, 2017 01:25:06
Hey Woody, just wanted to take a moment to pump your tires and congratulate you on your Super Trifecta picks yesterday. You are literally crushing it with this seasons Hoops Madness picks! It was really nice outcomes to see and it couldn't have happened to a better guy who unselfishly gives so much to the betting public. Keep up the great work!
Thanks so much for the kind words. They are greatly appreciated Dawg.
Mar 15, 2017 15:22:55
Hi Brian ... great work on here! Are you still sticking with the Flames tonight after Elliot ruled out? Thx
Indeed Jimmy. Johnson has been adequate for sure and Rask is sitting for Boston. It'll be Khodubin for the B's tonight.
Mar 12, 2017 18:22:21
Sherwood, been following your golf picks for the past month and you have been so close in three of four weeks. It's incredible how u break it down and find one longshot every week that is in the hunt. It's been exciting to watch, great fun to bet and you nailed it this week with Hadwin. Thanks for sharing and for the time you put into doing the research. It is greatly appreciated. i had $15 to win on Hadwin and couldn't be happier. Thanks again.
You are welcome Rick. Thanks for letting me know and for taking the time to send a note.
Mar 12, 2017 18:09:55
Only my third time watching golf and I took your pick for 1000 bucks. Thank you sir. Incredible game!
Nice hit Carlos and you're welcome. So glad you won.
Mar 11, 2017 21:48:44
Win or lose tomorrow, great pick on Hadwin.
Barry M
Thank you Barry.
Mar 8, 2017 20:22:54
Hey guys, Been following for years and can't thank you enough for the great work. You honesty and professionalism is second to none and I've made a crapload of money with your picks (especially NCAA) over the years. Your latest PGA picks have made golf fun again and if I hit a big one I'll split it with you. ;) Anyone with negative comments here should shop at the pay sites. Cheers
Thanks so much for the kind words Jason. Personally, I'm enjoying golf so much as well and hopefully we'll finish the deal with one of our picks soon. Thanks again friend and best of luck always.
Mar 7, 2017 12:56:31
TB now 80-1 betcris/bookmaker/DSI. And after dominating Rags...
Gotta hope they get in and then anything can happen, especially with their goaltending and if Stamkos comes back strong. Thanks for heads up MBJ.
Mar 6, 2017 11:22:09
hi Brian. This might be a basic question, but i hope you can explain things to me. On Sunday you had an NHL pick of CALGARY -½ OT included +122. Isn't this the same as betting Calgary on the moneyline? Calgary was the favorite, so how did you get a line over +100? I hope this question makes sense.
Dave O
No Dave, it is just an oversight on my part. -½ +122 should have been written as a REGULATION BET ONLY because when you are spotting a half puck, regulation is the only option. It was just a mistake on my part. Your question makes complete sense. Sorry about the misunderstanding
Mar 5, 2017 13:07:14
Brian what is your opinion on fading the Avalanche every game for the remainder of the season? They have what maybe three wins left in their system. Seems like dollar signs to me.
If it were only that easy. Looks like a great idea but it means spotting heavy juice almost every game and praying that they stay just as cold. If I were to take that approach, I would be spotting a half puck every game instead of the heavy juice. Personally, I wouldn't do it but don't let that stop you from betting what you trust will be a profitable angle. The risk is too great for a value bettor like myself and you may have missed the boat on that angle. Whatever you do, I hope it works out.
Mar 1, 2017 15:32:27
Nice heads up on the TBBolts. 2 places have them 55: Just picked up Streit for Flipuoff!
Marc Bryan Jacob
Feb 28, 2017 18:59:47
Hi Brian, thanks for the ingame tutorial blog. Any other strategies other than pointspreads?. Totals, moneylines stuff like that
You are welcome Mike and I will be running other tutorials on totals and ML betting in the near future so stay tuned.
Feb 28, 2017 18:31:19
Why did you abandon going against teams coming off their rest week ??
Many teams last week were not flat. Columbus, Chicago, and some others too. I think that angle was so well documented that players and coaches started preparing better for it in anticipation of a lethargic effort. I wanted to see how teams' did this week before continuing the attack.
Feb 27, 2017 12:02:07
I know he didn't win, but Bryan made a good run @ it. I enjoyed the tourney, wouldn't have turned it on w/o that bet..... Thanks!
Feb 24, 2017 08:55:37
Question about money management during streaks. Do you press a little when you are in a hot streak like you are now? Likewise do you back off a bit when in a cold streak? Streaks happen and once you recognize you are in one it pays to take advantage of the good and save a little when it's bad. Thanks for all your hard work and I enjoy your insights every day.
Yes Greg, I do. That is smart money management and comes highly recommended. I keep it simple on my site to avoid numerous emails asking why I'm up to 2.4 units for instance or down to 1.6 units....Both winning and losing streaks are inevitable. Thanks for the kind words and support too.
Feb 19, 2017 23:37:47
You almost sweeped! Good calls tonight. You think your bye week theory is over?
The "bye week" theory became a hot topic of conversation in the media as this past week wore on because teams coming off it had lost 12 in a row. What that did was prompt coaches and players to be aware of it. It's a new thing and much like when 3 on 3 started, teams will make adjustments on how to prepare better. It's still a small sample size so we'll see how it plays out and we'll act accordingly. There were a bunch of teams that came off it this past weekend that were not flat but simply lost so adjustments have already started.
Feb 19, 2017 07:33:59
You just made me $35,000!!!! Parlayed NHL teams coming off they\'re bi weeks. Big Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You rock! (I forgive you for the super bowl pick) Keep it up;)
Nice David but I didn't make you anything. You pulled the trigger and put up the cash while all I did was recommend some plays but I understand what you're saying. ENJOY friend and thanks for letting me know.
Feb 18, 2017 23:10:38
Great NHL picks tonight Brian. You really nailed it. I took it a step further and put together a 5 team parlay fading all the teams coming off the bye. It paid out at odds close to +5000. Great night. Thanks again.
Dave O
Very cool Dave. Great hit. Thanks for letting us know. Keep it going
Feb 17, 2017 18:29:15
Nice call on Arizona last night
Thanks man
Feb 17, 2017 09:51:48
Great angle Teams off the bye week. Zona no sweat win +200. do you think books will wise up. Tonight colorado is +200 over carolina.
It's still a very small sample size Michael so the books need not adjust just yet. If it carries on for the remainder of this year and into next year, you may see a slight adjustment. Go Avs!
Feb 16, 2017 08:36:34
The math behind all of the hockey plays make sense, people just need to actually read what is happening and not freak out like children when they think have caught their publisher in a lie. There is no conspiracy, and youre not brilliant for finding a flaw in the system. With that being said: the theory that laying -1.5 in hockey is extraordinary value is completely false. There have been pucklines out for decades, and they remain out there and appear 'inflated'... yet the odds always reamin extra appealing. Your record on these by two or mores is brutal, and the idea that there is value there is an idea which misleads the masses. If it was such a great betting angle, the books would adjust them to change the profitability of the bettor. As the season wears down, the games get tighter, and we see more 3 point games in March the any other month. The idea that sticking to these will yield returns is ridiculous. You may get lucky and hit a streak, but the odds are stacked against you, and that hole is much more likely to get bigger. In a podcast earlier on, you daid these two sentences in the same topic: "Stick to what you do and trust the process, dont change your angle becuase of a few bad results", followed closely by: " Einstein defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results". Its been very bad year+, maybe its time to listen to your second statement. Please continue with the fantastic podcasts/webinars/and betting coloumns, they are truly part of my everyday life. Lets turn this around! Your friend,
Tom: Thanks for some constructive criticism that makes a lot of sense. Games being tighter in late February and March are some great points among others that you pointed out and I appreciate you taking the time to write and remind me of that. Best of luck to you too and I will certainly take what you said into consideration.
Feb 15, 2017 21:59:09
Sorry an example I'll use is the leafs are 1 unit for 382 and 1 unit for 152 to me that's a two unit total play for a win of 544 units. I don't know how own you get 7 plus unit return on that play.
Steve, forget what the writeup says it pays. That is figuring it in as a two unit play @ -1½ +382. It's an automated system of which I have no control over. Pay more attention to the results afterward, as I update it to reflect the true bet of 1 unit each way.
Feb 15, 2017 15:58:48
Sherwood your numbers on return are way off on your hockey plays. It makes 0 sense. You pride yourself on honesty and integrity and your letting your fans down. Fix the returns on your plays because there's way to much of a return.
Can you be specific? Where are my numbers off. Incidentally, when they are off or an error is made, I get numerous emails pointing it out but yours is the only one I have received regarding this the last few days. Thanks Steve.
Feb 14, 2017 12:01:19
Hey Brian. Great job on the Coyotes pick. You are really on to something with teams coming off the bye. Thanks for have the foresight to know this would be a HUGE factor this NHL season. Dave O
Thanks Dave.
Feb 14, 2017 08:05:10
Keep fudging the numbers Sherwood, you need it! Arizona for 6 plus units come on.
Yeah, cause I have nothing better to do and have suddenly after 16 years of posting plays decided that yesterday would be the perfect time to "fudge" numbers. Read the write-up fool.
Feb 14, 2017 00:23:16
Bravo on the Coyotes pick! I've been riding the 'bye' train along with you thanks to your spot on analysis of the angle. Been a daily reader for nearly 7 years. Much, much respect. Keep doing what you do brother!
Mark H.
Thanks so much Mark.
Feb 12, 2017 10:56:01
How did you not lose units on SD pick?
I did lose units and updated it. No need to freak out, it was just an oversight.
Feb 9, 2017 01:54:51
The Patriots offence scored 4 unanswered TDs and went from being a Brady protection nightmare to marching up and down the field at will in the 4th quarter. I know it might be tough to wrap your head around as an ATL backer, but this game has much to do with the hoodies 2nd half adjustments as the Falcons throwing up on themselves.
If that's the way you see it, I'm not going to dispute it. Perception is reality and ours differ. That's what makes for good conversation. What I saw was three stooges (Quinn, Ryan and Shanahan) making a series of the worst decisions in the history of sports. 49,999 coaches would have had that game locked up but these three idiots decide to pass instead of running it three times, killing clock and hitting a FG to make it an 11-point lead with 4 minutes left. The Hoodies adjustments had nothing to do with that.
Feb 9, 2017 01:40:27
Another great podcast Brian, keep the good work.
Thank you Mike.
Feb 1, 2017 23:18:28
Thanks again for putting on the webinar. It was time well spent. Can`t wait for the next one!
Kelly in Calgary
You're welcome Kelly. Glad you could make it and I appreciate the time you took to write. See you next time!
Feb 1, 2017 13:08:10
I won't be able to attend the live webinar tonight. Are you planning on posting the webinar on sportswagers after the fact like you did with the NBA Betfair ones last year? That would be great if you could since I'm sure a lot of us would like to access the informaion if we missed the live webinar.
Jason: I was planning on recording it and posting it but unfortunately I forgot to record it. It went well with a good turnout so I will be running another one really soon and I'll record it and post it.
Feb 1, 2017 12:33:19
I'm interested in doing the Webinar tonight. May I do it on my iPad? Thanks, Marh
I'm not sure, please let me know if you were able to.
Jan 25, 2017 02:04:06
Bucks are a -11 1/2 favorite against 76ers tonight at Pinny. Sixers are 7 out of last 10 and were a 8.5 dog a couple games back at the Bucks and won straight up. Sixers came back last night after being down 19 to the Clips Seems odd after that they are 3 points higher tonight. Are Sixers a trap? Thanks Sherwood
I do not know if that's a trap David but all I can say is to trust your instincts. You make some valid points so always go with your gut when you're not sure. Best of luck man. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Jan 24, 2017 16:47:09
Really looking forward to the Webinar. Thanks for putting it together. Much appreciated
You are very welcome Dave. I look forward to seeing you there.
Jan 22, 2017 14:56:07
I thought Packers moneyline at +205 was great value and played it. The game is pretty much a pick em in my mind. Best of luck and......Go Pats!
As it turns out Magus, the Packers were a disaster waiting to happen. We failed to pick up on that too.
Jan 20, 2017 23:04:56
Another great podcast Brian, look forward to the webinar.
Thanks for saying so Mike
Jan 20, 2017 10:45:11
I was wondering if you wager 1 unit in your "in game" plays (football, hockey, etc) or do you cut back to half a unit? On another note, I have followed you since back when you first started this site. I absolutely love the podcasts and you give a wealth of free information. Keep up the great work and THANK YOU for your years of SPORTS WAGERING contributions!
You're welcome Jason. Thank you for the kind words and the time you took to send a message. I don't have a standard wager when it comes to in-game wagering. I'll cover all of that in my upcoming webinar and in this week's podcast. There are variables always at work so it's all a matter of what you are comfortable with and what opportunities the market presents us with. Again, I'll cover all that in this week's podcast and in next week's webinar. Cheers.
Jan 17, 2017 11:37:00
Pinnacle is a great resource/sportsbook, however they do not accept players from the USA, same with BET365. Is there anyway around that pretty large hurdle?
Unfortunately Dan, there is no way around it that I know of. Perhaps an agent (someone you know) in Canada could open an account for you and you make the bets. You would have to get a Canadian IP address but that's easy enough to do. The other issues with that are all withdrawals and deposits have to go through your agent. It's not the best solution but if you know someone well enough in Canada (or Europe), it can be done. Best of luck.
Jan 15, 2017 11:12:15
Awesome jobs recently in college hoops. I always check your picks out. Thanks.
You are welcome Mark. Thanks for writing.
Jan 12, 2017 17:18:18
Thanks Brian, that is indeed unusual and have been looking for those situations but only for about 3 weeks. I am indeed going with the Canes small to see how plays out. Going with that trend for the mentioned 3 weeks has had an unbelievable winning %. I will also play Colorado small in cbb which falls under the same reasoning/system/logic. Finding the % of bets vs the % of dollars however has been my biggest challenge. If you know of somewhere they are posted for free please let me know. Lets see if this has been pure luck or if there is something there to look at. I will conitnue monitoring this kind of info for sure in the meantime. Thanks
Jan 12, 2017 16:20:33
Hey Brian, as reading the lines is a huge part of betting, I would like to have your take on the example here: #TheU is receiving 38% of bets but 60% of dollars. Miami has moved from -2.5 to -4.5 vs #NotreDame. What does this tell you and which way would you lean if you had to not taking any other factors but the line itself. Thanks, enjoy reading your write ups every single day.
Thanks JR. The example you provided is a an unusual one because Notre Dame is taking more action in bets but the Hurricanes are taking the serious money. I am always weary when the "market" is leaning towards a dog because that, too is rare so therefore I would be taking Miami -4.5 if I had to. Hope this helps and now I'll be interested to see what happens. If you do step in, please let me know which way you went. Peace.
Jan 11, 2017 23:41:42
What a disgusting display Winnipeg put on tonight against Montreal. The coach needs to go, players are not responding to him.
I paid the price for backing Winnipeg too Mike. They can't be bet when they're favored, as their goaltending is unstable and Maurice won't commit to one guy. That team remains an enigma.
Jan 8, 2017 21:06:58
Puck unluck...Love your pod casts...Betting value more...Hope you guys the best in 2017 and baseball can't come soon enough...
Thanks so much Jason
Jan 8, 2017 12:32:29
Raptors may not have legs to shoot or defend late in the game today, so thinking of laying the 2.5 with Houston. OT game last night and 6PM start today doesn't hurt the cause either.
Jan 6, 2017 16:46:20
Hello, Brian. How come your NBA picks are so few and far between? On the other hand, you keep picking NHL games on daily basis, although you say hockey is a game in which luck has the most influence on the final outcome. Don't you get sick when luck doesn't go your way so many times? Just trying to understand you better, love reading your NFL blog!
It's rather simple Serbian....After years of trying, I have never had success in the NBA while having great success in the other sports. I do bet NBA LIVE and will run a webinar on that soon. The NHL on the other hand is a sport I have had great success in and that "puck Luck" and parity means frequent winners taking back prices. I appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Jan 6, 2017 13:01:44
Another great podcast Brian. Keep up the good work.
Thank you Mike
Dec 27, 2016 10:19:57
Am I crazy trying to make sense of why Minnesota is a 6 pt fav to mich at at home tonight? I get mich St is not the powerhouse they normally are, but have still played much tougher competition with minn playing a bunch of cupcakes and Florida st, their only loss which I remember being a gross backdoor cover. Please tell me mich St is a play outright tonight?
You are not crazy Mike. We've faded Minnesota a bunch of times this year. State holds tremendous value so trust your instincts! Go MSU!
Dec 22, 2016 13:58:39
I'm curious and kind of surprised actually that your not all over the Wild tonight. They've won 8 straight and have been just dominant recently. The Habs are in a look ahead spot. They play in Columbus tomorrow for the first time since that disturbing 10-0 defeat and if Columbus still has their streak going how badly do you think they want to be the team to snap it. If the habs even so much as blink tonight thinking about tomorrow, the Wild will be all over them in every single area of the ice. Your better goaltender theory can't be used in this spot because dubnyk is as solid as they come. Price is the best but if he had a challenger, gotta believe this is it. 8 straight on the road in MTL in a look ahead spot for the home team, please tell me you seen something that made you pass on this especially with a decent tag.
The media is billing tonight's game, Dubnyk v. Price as a classic so there is plenty of excitement for sure. Thing is Eric, Minnesota has not been dominant at all. They are not "ALL OVER" anyone. They get badly outplayed on most nights and the only reason they're winning is because of Dubnyk. Not saying Montreal will win but I will say that Montreal will very likely outplay them. Your theory about playing in C-Bus tomorrow does have some validity though for sure. Montreal has lost just twice at home all year and therefore I want more than 15 cents to back this overvalued dog.
Dec 20, 2016 10:32:16
While it worked out last night, your Pinnacle logic is nonsensical. Nobody hits better than 55% so I wouldn't go completely opposite your opinion just because Pinny has it a half point higher. Without interviewing the bookmaker, there is no way of knowing his reasons for doing so on each game - might just be overloaded by a big whale on the other side, for example. I respect your opinion almost all of the time but this one is silly. Why not see where they are a point higher in volleyball and curling and bet that, since they are so sharp?
Duly noted Dan and you're right, without direct knowledge from the sportsbook itself, there is no way of really knowing for sure. However, RARELY is said sportsbook higher priced on a favorite. Studying lines and movements is something I've been doing for 15 years (on the internet) and I can assure you that they are usually lower and not higher on point-spread favorites. I wouldn't dismiss it as nonsensical because I take this stuff very seriously and wouldn't have mentioned it on my site or podcast if it was a small sample size. Indeed yesterday's game worked out but that was just one game. Follow it for a year and we'll revisit the topic then. I appreciate your feedback and the time you took to write.
Dec 18, 2016 11:59:39
Hello Brian, Do you see any value in taking Chicago at home tonight over San Jose? Chicago as a dog at home against anyone strikes me as an odd move. Is this where one does not go against Pinnacle? Best, - John.
I think you hit the nail on the head John...not to go against Pinnacle. The Sharkies have a great history over the past few years too on these extended road trips. Most importantly, I don't go against Pinny if I can help it. Good eye there and trust your instincts, always.....Best of luck!
Dec 13, 2016 11:38:07
All week I was thinking of playing the Ravens.....I'm happy that I read your write-up beforehand. At -6, the Pats were the play if you were to play it atl all, and they should have won by much more than 7 as well. I had a decent 2-teamer with that Pens PL walk-over game that brightened up my Lost Wages vacation. I pick my spots when betting and your insight is one more tool I use when deciding if I play or pass on a day of wagers. Thanks for your continued work.
You're welcome Magus and thank you for taking the time to let me know. Happy Holidays!
Dec 11, 2016 00:41:58
Figured I'd let you know how my day went on the college hardwood, i lost the Bonnie's ML to a buzzer beater fade away jumper with the defender all up in Ingram's grill & then in a battle of titans between Rider & Pacific, I lost due in large part to a 5 mins scoreless drought but somehow just needed one point & Rider missed the back end of a one & one with no time left. So basically if the made & miss shots would of been reversed I would of had a perfect 4-0 day instead 2-2. I made one mistake and that's I didn't get the o138.5 I waited it out & settled for o139.5 which just goes to show having the best of the # just adds one more plus on getting that edge we grind day in and day out for. In game variance sometime will never be able to predict, back at it tomorrow. Let's grade those wagers on the grid iron. Your a class act, kudos Sherwood
Your day can be repeated by almost every single bettor out there. Just change the teams and 90% of all games come down to in-game variance, which is why I'll stress playing value until the day I die. It was gracious of you to take the time to write and I really appreciate the kind words. Let's find some clear cut winners today! Best of luck, -110.
Dec 8, 2016 16:53:25
Hey guys, if you have the time can you shed some light on the Flyers tonight? I'm curious as to what you think about their current run and if you see any value backing them at home tonight perhaps In regulation only. They're kinda confusing at times but overall to me, they appear to be a team that has it all coming together. But twice on this streak they were brutally outshot and outplayed but found a way to win. The other 4 wins came as a result of strong play and the shots were either equal or favoring Philly. They have wins over Chicago, Nashville, Calgary, Boston, Ottawa and Florida. Impressive to say the least. With McDavid in town tonight I can't see them taking the Oilers lightly like they probably did against the Panthers. What do you think? Is this line too good to be true?
E.....I never like to take anyone off of a game. If you think it's a good line in your favor, bet it. Personally, I would not give the Oilers a half puck because they are actually better at everything than the Flyers and they're probably in a foul mood after blowing the last game. In my opinion, the game is priced right but I have a slight lean to the Oilers. I also don't trust Mason, although he's hot right now. That bubble of his could burst at any time and I don't want to be stuck spotting a half goal or a price on Philly when it inevitably does burst.
Dec 7, 2016 16:45:21
Great call on New Jersey Tech yesterday. Simply beautiful brother. Keep up the great work and appreciate when you find hidden gems like NJ Tech or more importantly, statistical imposters like Minnesota. Awesome job
Thanks so much Sarb for the kind words and taking the time to send them.
Dec 7, 2016 11:27:29
Hi Brian, just wondering why you don't play the NBA more? No value?
Albert Einstein said insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. The NBA has been a sport I have never been able to beat despite using the same strategies as I do for college hoops or any other sport. It is for that reason that we're being very selective Mike. It's a process and while we're confident in the games we bet, we're taking it slow before stepping it up. There is of course value in every sport if you do your homework and find an edge in the number.
Dec 6, 2016 23:24:46
Great pick on Flames, lookout for this team. After a slow start under a new coach and a complete change of style of playing, they will be good, and Chad Johnson is the real deal, check out his record in Buffalo.. All you stats guys will fall over him
Thanks Tom. Calgary has to be thrilled they picked Johnson up to back up Brian Elliott. As it turns out, Elliott is now the backup and it's completed warranted. These Flames with good goaltending are rock solid.
Dec 3, 2016 19:00:37
I have to ask, this is coming just before puck drop so I know you won't be able to respond prior to Game time but the odds on leafs and canucks game are mind boggling to me. At least one sports book has the Leafs at -160 on the road where they are 2-6-4 against a team out seeking revenge. That is a little high no??? I understand the Leafs being favored in this spot but slight favorites at best! That is absurd. Does this not point to these books suggesting they believe the Leafs are going to win and want Canucks money or is there just that money coming in on the Leafs?
Dec 2, 2016 06:34:56
I am mostly interested in the nfl, i read all your posts and your conments are almost Always on the money. Great pick on minny last nite.dave
I appreciate that Dave. Thanks
Dec 1, 2016 17:55:41
Looks like the Vikings starting center is out and the head coach had last minute eye surgery. I liked the Vikings, but now a little cautious. Let's see if line moves.
Dec 1, 2016 10:44:26
Great work Brian. UP a few units this year based on your analysis
Thank you Andy. I love to hear about people winning money and I'm thrilled that some of our strategies have worked out for you. Besides, money won is so much sweeter than money earned.
Dec 1, 2016 09:18:33
Another great podcast Brian, keep up the good work
Thank you so much Mike. I appreciate the support and the time you took to write.
Nov 28, 2016 16:37:11
Long time reader Sherwood,,,,,thanks for keeping this site free and never asking for anything in return. Anyone that doesn't learn something from all your experience and great information is a fool. I don't follow you blindly but your site has been an important part of my daily routine for years and I just wanted to take a moment to let you know how much I appreciate your site and the time you put into it.
Thank you for acknowledging the work and time I put into it Kaz. Your message made my day.
Nov 28, 2016 16:01:30
Hey Brian, kudos for your sweep on the college grid iron as well as a solid performance on the pro one as well ! Other than myself, your the only other person I look to for advice. All these touts & services are just like you say pure scum. All you really need is to take time to dig deeper than surface stats & make sure you always get the best of the #. I am a big believer in metrics & analytics and use them thoroughly to make my wager official. I find they work mostly on the college side, pro sports tend to be a lot more precise. The one sport I cannot stand though is hockey, I'll tail you from time to time & have noticed that regardless the metrics, the edge in nets or the situational spot a team may be in, the right side doesn't grade the wager. I'm thinking of just abandoning it as a whole, with college fball & cbk as well as MLB that pretty much covers action year round ! Thoughts ? As always great work here, your a class act & I appreciate the time & passion you put forth !
Hey, thanks so much for the kind words. I really appreciate the time you took to write..... It's funny, I was just talking to my podcast partner Matt about the NHL and said it's the most frustrating sport to bet on because you get plenty of games every week where a team dominates and loses outright because of goaltending. It is without question the most luck-driven sport out there but that also means we can use it to our advantage by playing undervalued dogs at great prices. You just have to keep going with "the best of it". Still, if you are not profiting and it's hurting your bottom line, by all means abandon it completely. I wish you the best of luck and again, I truly do appreciate the kind words.....Peace!
Nov 27, 2016 11:48:45
Morning Brian, Just wanted to say great College Football picks last night, especially hitting that Vanderbilt game!!! I just read your blog post about the TEN@CHI game. The line has since moved to CHI +6 (-106 Pinnacle). Do you see any value in taking Chicago since the line has moved up 1.5 points since your blog? Also wanted to say, I really enjoy your podcast. It is truly nice to see that you take time out of your personal life to do these podcasts and these daily write ups. Sending good karma your way bud! Thank You.
I do think there is great value on the Bears SB. Lots of talk about how the Bears have quit has also influenced this number. Tennessee is just not good enough to be favored on the road in this range. Best of luck and thanks so much for the kind words and support.
Nov 20, 2016 10:26:23
Hey Brian, just thought I would share my NHL pick for today, as I see real value here. Columbus @ Washington. Pick: Columbus OT Included Moneyline +171 (Pinnacle) The Jackets are 7-2-1 in their last 10 and are riding a 3 game winning streak. Those victories were against the Blues, Caps, and Rangers. They are a talented team, and recently defeated the Rangers this week. The Jackets have been underrated and have been flying under the radar. Bobrovsky is having a great season so far: 9-4-1 with a 2.20 GAA and a .932 Save %. Columbus' defense has been super stingy this year allowing an average of 2.33 goals against per game. The offense is also a bright point scoring an average of 3.40 goals per game. Columbus played these same Caps at home last week and edged out a 2-1 OT victory. Although the goalies are not confirmed at the time of this write up, it is probable that it will be Holtby vs Bobrovsky. Although Washington is a tough team to beat at home, Columbus is decent on the road posting a 2-2-2 record. I feel the value here is too good to pass up, and this should be a good close game.
Very nice SB.
Nov 16, 2016 14:01:09
Hey Brian, I just noticed what appears to be an overreaction on the Penguins @ Capitals game. Before Matt Murray was confirmed to start, the line was PIT +105 WAS -115 OT included ML. Now the line has moved to PIT -110, WAS -100. Holtby vs Murray should be a good battle, but when was the last time we saw Washington in this position at home? I would argue that Holtby is still the better goalie. Although the Caps played last night on the road, I still believe this is an overreaction. Also WAS in regulation on the ML is listed at +101. Any thoughts? Thanks.
You're right, the Caps at home should not be a dog to Pittsburgh even though they always have trouble with them. Indeed, there may be an overreaction but if so, it is a very slight one. Puck line says Caps will not lose in regulation so If I was betting it, I would play Caps in regulation only. It's a tough game to call.
Nov 16, 2016 13:53:40
Hi! First of all, gratz on last nights picks. Secondly I would like to ask you about the line for the Saints@Panthers game. If I remeber good the Saints were +6.5 @Chiefs. The Chiefs were+3 @Panthers Now the Saints are+3(but opened as +4)@Panthers. I see a big difference here. What is more, earlier in the season the Panthers were a -3 fav @NO. Could you please give any comment about this lines? Thanks a lot! Big fan of your picks Bart!
Thank you OvO. Things change from week to week in the NFL. Carolina's stock was very high to begin the year so you can't compare Week 2 Carolina to Week 10 Carolina. This line suggests that the Chiefs and Saints are about equal and frankly, that assessment is not too far off. The line, Carolina -3½ over New Orleans for Thursday seems about right to me.
Nov 16, 2016 09:17:35
Kudos to a perfect 8 for 8 last night! Here is to hoping this is the start of the turn around after a rough year. Cheers!
Thanks very much SB
Nov 16, 2016 07:06:15
Thanks! Just came back from Vegas and won $5000 on your NHL picks. Did all 5 of your NHL picks on a parlay Tuesday night and won $7200 on a $100 bet. You rock!
You're welcome. I always love hearing about big wins and I'm so happy you were able to cash. Thanks for writing man.
Nov 10, 2016 13:43:33
In reference to your Hurricanes write up, do you believe that sharp price on the Ducks may be mostly due to the Ducks playing a back to back and going the distance in overtime last night? I know the market puts a lot of emphasis on that stuff. I liked the Canes today as well but I'm a bit skeptical as to whether that line is encouraging Ducks money or is just due to the Ducks on a back to back.
Eric, back-to-backs influence the number for sure. We see it with the Jackets tonight and we see examples of it all the time. However, this one is more about Pinnacle's position in that they were/are staying higher than everyone else. To me, that's telling so this is a wager based on Pinny's position.
Nov 9, 2016 19:17:52
I was on Vancouver for games 3 thru 9 of their 9 game losing streak because of the value as underdogs, they were still playing hard, outshooting teams and losing a lot of close games, of course I finally lay off them as +275 dogs to the Rangers and they win that one... go figure, been one of those years for me. Did you ever find another exchange for NBA games? I sure miss that, made the NBA so much more entertaining to follow lol..
I agree Wade, exchange betting is exciting and profitable. Hopefully, an exchange will be available to Americans and Canadians soon.
Nov 8, 2016 13:52:10
Hey Brian, Do you see any value in taking the Oilers tonight +188 @ PIT?
Chris, I had the Oilers all written up...... Edmonton +165 over PITTSBURGH OT included. There is no question that the Penguins are the class of the league right now and there is also no question that Sidney Crosby is not quite ready to pass over the proverbial torch to Connor McDavid just yet. One has to figure that the arena will lively in anticipation of a Crosby/McDavid showdown. However, the Penguins return home from a four-game trip that ended with the last three games being on the West Coast. Pittsburgh won three of four on said trip and scored five goals in each victory. However, the Pens only managed 27, 23 and 25 shots on net in three of the four games and were outshot by the Flyers 42-27. The Penguins are winning but it’s not as impressive as the record suggests. The Penguins are still a great team but they have nothing to prove and in a Tuesday night game in November, they’re overpriced against a team that has plenty to prove. Pittsburgh will also feature the second best goaltender when Marc Andre Fleury and his .903 save % squares off against Cam Talbot’s .925 save %. In this league, when you have the superior goaltender, you always have a chance to win. Edmonton is no longer an easy out. Here’s a team with one of the best records in the league at 9-3-1 that is taking back a rather serious price tag. Only Toronto and Philadelphia have recorded more shots on net than the Oilers. The Oilers have won back-to-back games after a three game losing streak and they conclude their five-game trip here. They were exhausted when they played Detroit on Sunday afternoon but with a full days’ rest and the opportunity to play the Penguins, expect Edmonton to be recharged and ready to go. When a price like this is being offered on the dangerous Oil, we are going to bite often and make no exceptions here......But then I saw Murray was in goal and he's 2-0 with one goal allowed. Pitt has outscored opposition 10-1 when Murray is in goal so I passed....That said, I don't want to take you off a game you like. If your gut and instincts say play it, by all means do....Best of luck...
Nov 6, 2016 20:45:29
Just wanted to say that despite the brutal year you are having, you are honest and display the record for all to see. Unlike all the Lock of the day touts. Maybe Sherwood, you should run for the Presidency of the USA. I know your slump will end and things will turn around
I appreciate the kind words Tom. The only way to remain credible is to be 100% honest about this business and not ask for anything. My platform is transparent and free and will remain so for as long as I keep doing this.
Nov 4, 2016 15:12:57
Hi sher, u like any ponies at the breeders cup,. All the best JB
I haven't had a good look yet JB. If I have any ponies tomorrow, I will tweet them out..... @sportswagers3
Nov 3, 2016 19:44:36
Listened to your latest podcast, great job Brian. Keep them coming.
Thanks very much for the support.
Nov 2, 2016 23:23:42
Brian, you know how you mention "in game variance" ? Well I just watched none other than Rajai Davis smack one into left field to tie the game. This isn't on Chapman, if the Cubs lose this series, this is on Maddon period. Chapman is beyond gassed and you bring him in, in the 8th inning? Idiot. Anyway, back to in game variance, this is a great example of how anything can happen. I'm afraid that after tonight, Joe Maddon will be the most hated guy in Chicago, and Steve Bartman will be able to emerge into society once again.
Joe Maddon dodged a serious bullet for the way he managed the last two games of that series. Boy, did he get lucky.
Nov 1, 2016 14:04:44
Very interesting write up on the Leafs game, as I saw value in taking Edmonton. However, your points make perfect sense, curious to see how this game turns out. Something is definitely up with the Leafs being a -115 favourite against a team like Edmonton...
And there you have it.
Oct 30, 2016 11:32:09
Great call on the Wyoming Cowboys! They win outright (as you predicted) on a late safety! I was busy preparing to get to a wedding, and I wasn't going to bet at all....but I read your write-up, and you convinced me to back Wyoming with a few units....I blindly followed you (which I never have done before), and we went directly to the cashiers window! Thanks, and great call.....Keep up the great work!
Thank you Jeff.
Oct 29, 2016 20:05:01
Great play at +750 for Esks to win grey cup, Championship team and if they cross over or not, it is possible for sure. Interesting stat with Calgary, they went 15 and 3, three years and did not win the grey cup. All time record holder was the 89 Eskimos, who went 16 and 2, and they also did not win the grey cup.
Thanks Tom. I'm really hoping the Eskies crossover and then the wager has SO much value. But like you said, it has value either way with such a short path to the Championship game.
Oct 24, 2016 09:19:08
Hi Sherwood. Nice to see this weekend treated us better in terms of being in the black and in game variance. Look at that Buffalo Miami game. I would like to share my pick for tonight, as I believe there is good value on this game. Calgary Flames @ Chicago Blackhawks. OVER 5.5 TOTAL -100 (Pinnacle) Chicago is tied for 1st for the most goals for in the league, and they have the firepower to pot quite a few in, especially against a Calgary team, which leads the league in goals against. Brian Elliott has not yet found his groove, and having said that, the Blackhawks, are also letting in a lot of goals this year. The Blackhawks are right behind the Flames for Goals against. Corey Crawford and Scott Darling have been nothing special to start this season. Calgary also has the ability to score a few goals, as they have a talented number of players. This sounds like a perfect recipe for a shootout, run and gun type of game.
Thanks SB-159. You make some good points.
Oct 23, 2016 22:08:39
Great job nailing 3 out of 4 on your NFL card. Opting for the + money instead of laying taking the points. Just goes to show how irrelevant the point spread is 75% of the time ! Keep up the good work,
Thanks Karl. Hopefully that will jump start things around here. It's been a rough few months but we just have to stick with it and the results will follow. Thanks so much for writing!
Oct 21, 2016 12:30:59
Oregon down to -1 may have pulled the trigger a little too early on Cal minus the FG !
I didn't see that coming Karl and while it's always best to get the best number, some things are unforeseen. That said, with a total of 89½ on the game, It is highly unlikely that those two points will make a difference. GO CAL!
Oct 20, 2016 19:03:18
You find anything comparable to Betfair's Exchange betting?
No Jazz. I would assume that a "sports exchange" will be inevitably available in Canada at some point by somebody. It may be a year or two or three but it's coming.
Oct 19, 2016 14:02:18
I'm curious to know why your not jumping all over the Leafs tonight with decent value on them. Winnipeg is in a look ahead spot to the heritage classic on Sunday, and the Leafs are coming into this well rested and full of excitement. This seems as good a spot as ever to back to the Leafs, no?
It's a good spot Eric and you're probably right in that the Maple Leafs are live but Winnipeg may not be a good matchup for Toronto. I wanted to see Toronto compete against a big physical team on the road before recommending them. Best of luck!
Oct 16, 2016 12:42:39
Hi Sherwood, I would like to share my pick for today and get your thoughts on it. Btw, I loved your NHL Preview, keep it up! Buffalo Sabres @ Edmonton Oilers OVER 5.5 Goals +115 (Pinnacle) I know Eichel & Kane are banged up, however, I see value as these are average goalies facing off against each other. The Oilers have also potted 12 goals in 2 games. The Oilers have a ton of talent up front, and Buffalo, banged up as they are, still have the potential to pot in a few goals. Also, Kyle Okposo is probable for this game, but not yet confirmed. Thanks for your time, and all the best! Keep up the awesome work.
Oct 14, 2016 13:45:17
Hi Sherwood, not sure playing Cleveland now is the best way to hedge your bet. This series is different in that the home team is favoured to win the first game yet is the dog in the series which means if Cleveland wins the first game, as expected, the odds on the series won’t change much. Say Cleveland does win tonight, then series price on Cleveland prob even money or at most -110, not huge diff from +130 and can hedge then. But if Toronto wins tonight, (then series is over!) the odds on Cleveland in the series will jump to at least +180, prob +200. I also have Toronto to win the World Series at 12-1 but will sit out game one, won’t hedge until Cleveland wins a game and hopefully won’t need to waste any hedge money till next round. Does this make sense?? Appreciate all your write-ups and Good Luck!
Hi +1200...You're argument is valid but it's based on not wasting any hedge money (a good idea), but it's also flawed in that Cleveland can go up 2-0 and then you'll be in trouble unless Toronto ties it 2-2. I do not disagree with you, as your reasoning is sound but I am taking nothing for granted. It Toronto wins Game 1,I am happy with my bet on the WS. Your approach makes sense too, as the worst that could happen is that you lose your WS future. Toronto does indeed have a chance to go up 1-0 and then you will be in much better shape then me. Good luck and thanks for writing and acknowledging the write-ups.
Oct 12, 2016 13:57:26
Good luck in therx hockey pool this year, except when you play me! How do you feel about the Canucks over 66 points this year? I feel like Vegas dropped the ball on this line. Last year was a disaster with key injuries and they still managed 75 points. This season they finally add a top line winger to play with the Sedins in Louie Erikkson, a much needed big and tough top 4 defenceman in Gudbranson, get back a healthy Brandon Sutter (missed almost all last season) to center the second line and take some pressure off Horvat, and add some scoring help with Swedish Elite League MVP Anton Rodin. There only losses were spare part forwards Higgins and McCann, as well as Yanik Weber and Matt Bartowski (those last two are additions by subtraction on the defensive end). Also two decent goalies in Miller and Markstrom. What am I missing here, this is not a 30th place club if healthy. Thanks
Thanks Reid....I never like to dissuade anyone from a bet they like. If you think it is low and you like it, trust yourself. If the Canucks are as good as you believe, they will soar over that number. You make some very valid points Reid and I wish you all the luck in the world!
Oct 9, 2016 14:16:06
Hi Brian, Do you see any value taking the Texas Rangers tonight at +182 on the Money Line? I truly think the oddsmakers have boosted Toronto's value based on the first two games, and especially Game 1. Texas played well here last year in the Postseason. These teams stack up well against each other, I am just curious if you see the value as well? Thank you.
I never like to take anyone off a game SB. If you think there is value, bet it. Personally, I think Colby Lewis should be getting 3-1 every time he pitches because he's so hittable and that's why I left Texas off my slate today. BEST OF LUCK!
Oct 9, 2016 10:15:16
BROWNS straight up ! Keep up the great work, your one of the few class acts this industry possesses. PROPS
Thank you so much! I appreciate the kind words
Oct 1, 2016 13:11:18
Im I missing something? Why the hell is Wisky +11 vs the Wolverines? I know they are good but the Badgers Will just pound the rock And they have a crazy good LB core. I think they Can win this game outright but Will gladly take 11 points. Whats your take Sherwood?
Sep 30, 2016 12:25:32
Hey Sherwood, I know you are against Pro Line, but do you feel there is value when they over inflate the lines for the favourite? Take this three team parlay for example. DET@CHI: CHI +3.5 DEN@TB: TB +4.5 DAL@SF: SF +3.0 Pinnacle is offering the following: DET +2.5, TB +3, SF +2. I understand the parlay payout is not nearly as good, but OLG has inflated the line by at least one point in those games. Does that not constitute value? Thank You.
Absolutely not. It would be value if you played them on their own, or flat bet each game on their own but when you put them all together, the chances of the point-spread making a difference in all three is next to 0%. Hell, you can play a 6-point three team teaser and the odds are still not in your favor. Trust me when I say that pro-line is a complete ripoff. They are crooks with a license to steal.
Sep 27, 2016 16:00:57
Any way Cubs don't win the world series at +200?
October baseball is a lot different than the regular season and while the Cubbies can certainly win it, they are no way a cinch and I would want at least 3½-1 to bet them to win it all. Of course they can be beat. How would you like to face Kershaw, Hill and Maeda in succession? That's better than any 3 the Cubs can roll out (Arrieta, Hendricks and Lester).
Sep 25, 2016 17:38:40
Brian, what is wrong with the Arizona Cardinals? They were supposed to be a favourite to win the Super Bowl this season. They lost to the Bills 33-18 today, and they have not looked good so far this season, is Carson Palmer the problem or will the Cardinals manage to snap out of the funk they are in?
It's still a bit early to write off the Cardinals. Yesterday's line (-3.5) said they were in danger of losing. They were flat in Week 1 but blew out TB in Week 2. Injuries and other factors have played a role but Arizona will be just fine, Well coached with talent throughout, they'll be there at the end when the dust settles. Palmer is fine too. Be patient, as they are an upper echelon squad.
Sep 25, 2016 07:53:11
I have learned a lot about sports gambling from following this site over the past several years. Included in that education is that stretches like the one we are currently in can happen to anyone, including those who are prepared and knowledgeable. Keep plugging away Brian, your track record suggests that a massive correction is in order.
Thanks so very much Joel. It is so damn frustrating to be on such a bad streak for almost a full year so words alone cannot express my gratitude for the encouraging words and the time you took to write them. Here's to that major correction! C'MON ALREADY!
Sep 24, 2016 10:48:17
I like the idea of in game betting but have avoided it because of the excessive vig. Bet365 is 15% to 20%. There is not a man alive who can beat this kind of juice. Any thoughts?
Barry M
There is not a man alive is correct Barry. In-game betting at those prices is a losing proposition, therefore one must find a better option if one is going to play it. PINNACLE, BETFAIR (through an agent).
Sep 23, 2016 22:36:04
Hi Sherwood, I am writing you to enquire about the current NFL history column on your unit tracker. I have been following your NFL picks since the pre season and cant understand where you are getting the 9 wins from. According to my memory and your log, you should be 7-10, and in the negative roughly 6 units. I assume a man of your integrity wouldn't skew the numbers, and I have been looking at this ever since week 1, so I guess you could say that this an instance of curiosity on my part.
Terry, thanks for bringing this to my attention. My software does all the calculating on its own so I'll have to look back week by week, including the preseason and get back to you on this. I will post my findings in this thread later in the week so check back and we'll get to the bottom of it. Thank you again.
Sep 22, 2016 14:41:48
Hi Brian, heard your latest podcast and it is right on the money with that bullshit with sharps, public etc. What are thoughts on in game betting? Any strategies you use for them? Maybe a podcast of that. Thanks
Thanks so much Mike. I am fully engaged with "in-game betting" and your suggestion to do a podcast on it is a great one. I have several strategies that I employ that are too long a discussion to have on here but we will ABSOLUTELY feature it in an upcoming podcast. Thanks again for the great suggestion.
Sep 20, 2016 15:34:21
Hi Brian, any thoughts on the USA/Canada game tonight? I see USA is +246 OT Included. I know this Canada team is a powerhouse, and Carey Price is a wall in net, however, I see value at that price tag seeing as the US have a really good team as well, and this line seems to be overblown due to the USA's 3-0 loss to Team Europe Any input would be appreciated. Thanks.
Lot of moving parts in this game RV (and Cam). The Americans are messed up and under a ton of pressure. That said, they still have a ton of great players and obviously can beat anyone. There is value for sure but since I have them to win the event, I'll pass on tonight's game.
Sep 20, 2016 14:06:20
Any insight on the WCH games today? U.S. at a +250 seems almost too good.
See above
Sep 17, 2016 17:33:57
Just thinking over your take on the Browns/Ravens game tomorrow. I always appreciate your analysis and insights. One thing though: the Ravens consider themselves a contender. They will view the Buffalo win as an under-performance. In all categories they will come out tomorrow to carve better stats. The Browns seem to be a structurally dysfunctional team. Aspiring to execute plays seems to be a challenge for them. It's not inconceivable that your prediction is on the money (the Browns are at home) but neither is it inconceivable that the Ravens win by 10. Best of luck!
No doubt the Ravens can win by 10, 20 or even 30 points Dave. Would not surprise me one bit if they did but I'm not in this to predict winners. I strictly look for value and that's it. This is simply a value play. I'll hope for the best. Thanks for writing Dave and making some sense too!
Sep 17, 2016 12:40:53
Hey Brian, I listened to your podcast exposing the tout at VIP Las Vegas. So I dug a little deeper and found the Reality TV show from CNBC called "Money Talks" featuring this Steve Stevens guy. What a scam artist this guy is! I can't believe CNBC would even show this, but I guess anything for ratings...He has no system. Period. Cut and dried. He gets his clients to bet big favourites, and when they lose, they double or even triple down on their bet. Anyway, the whole season is on YouTube. I watched Episode 1 where a guy was chasing his losses. Funny thing about Stevens is, this guy is making $$$ hand over fist. He gets a 50% cut from his whale clients without laying down the cash. He also has the VIP Sports call centre which reminds me of the movie "Boiler Room". It's all a pitch, and there is nothing of quality offered, the end goal is getting the credit card number. The sad thing is, is that people buy into this guy. Makes me sick. This is actually worse than telemarketing.
It is sick Andrew. SO SICK. Thanks for commenting,
Sep 16, 2016 10:14:17
Hey Sherwood, see any value in taking Seattle -1.5 +170 over Houston tonight? Thanks.
Chris: I don't like to take anyone off a game they like. Obviously Seattle is very hot at the moment and could easily win by 2 or more. If you like it, play it. That game won't make my slate but Houston is a very beatable team indeed. Best of LUCK!!
Sep 14, 2016 21:18:54
WOW! Thanks for the heads up on World Cup Hockey value picks, with the CFL, NFL and MLB going on, no one outside of Toronto is really paying any attention, yet. I think you are right on and with that value who cares, USA or under 23, great odds, thank you, win or lose I would suggest the value is to good to pass up. Great stuff once again, from the best FREE tout that I use!
Sep 14, 2016 07:35:34
Just want to say great call on the MLB season win picks. Another 2-0 on top of the NHL 2-0 season picks. I enjoy them as well, as it keeps you interested all year. On a side note are you Fading Estrada today for the sweep?
Thank you Michael and of course I'm fading Estrada at prices like this!!
Sep 13, 2016 19:24:44
Seems confusing to hear constant lectures regarding value, but then at some point that turns into "The books are trlling us they have no chance to win"? With all do respect, whats the threshold number where value is no longer, and it turns into a "no chance of winning"? Or are you making that up as you go along? Great work with the site and podcast, always an entertaining read and listen, with some excellent handicapping tips sprinkled in there too! Thanks for the years of free advice and picks
Terry: it's always a challenge to pick winners no matter what approach you use. There is always risk but if you play value, stick with it and use good money management skills, you will always give yourself a better chance of ending up in the black at the end of your gambling career. Thanks so much for the kind words.
Sep 11, 2016 13:30:18
Brian, I took a year off from betting and have returned. It is nice to see you are still offering free picks with great analysis. I love the new podcast as well. I like the portion about laying your bets before watching pre game shows. It is true that these so called analysts can influence your decision, and from what I have noticed it's usually picking huge favourites. Best of luck today, and keep up the good work!
Welcome back RV, best of luck and thanks so much for the kind words.
Sep 7, 2016 15:53:24
Little off topic . I would like your opinion on the odds at Pinnacle Sports on up coming Presidential elections .Are these numbers skewed or are just trying too balance the vig .
Patrick Smith
Trump has no shot according to Pinny. Don't bet against Pinnacle. Besides that, I don't discuss religion or politics.
Sep 6, 2016 20:17:08
Hi Sherwood, With respect to your NFL Survivor pool, if we already follow you on Twitter, how do we get an free entry? Tx Rob.
Rob V
Rob, go to the "Pools": page. There are several ways to get an entry or two.
Sep 6, 2016 11:50:44
Hey Brian, I tip my hat to you for ploughing through what has surely been a tough season of betting for many baseball bettors. Hang in there bud, and know that there's no better victory than giving your time and efforts to try and benefit others. And of course you're thinking, yeah that's nice, but I need some wins right now!..LOL.....All gamblers think alike!! Hopefully the NFL and NHL seasons bring you better fortunes! Speaking of the NFL, I came across the following info that seems to support some good UNDER bets in Week 1 (I'm not a fan of totals, but this info seems pretty solid): WEEK ONE NON-DIVISION ROAD FAVORITES HAVE GONE UNDER THE TOTAL 74 PERCENT OF THE TIME SINCE 1997. Last season their were 5 of these games opening week of which four went under (80%) Miami/Washington (W) Carolina/Jacksonville (W) Cincinnati/Oakland (L) Philadelphia/Atlanta (W) Minnesota/San Francisco (W) The UNDERS in Week 1 (2016) that deserve a look in accordance with the above criteria are: Thursday Carolina Denver Under 42 Sunday Minnesota Tennessee Under 41 Cincinnati NY Jets Under 41.5 Green Bay Jacksonville Under 48* Monday Pittsburgh Washington Under 50* Take care Brian and good luck!
Smitty, thanks so very much for the encouraging words and for sharing your findings in Week 1 for the NFL. You have always shared good info with us and we appreciate it. Wishing you the best of luck in the upcoming seasons as well. Peace Brother.
Sep 3, 2016 13:16:39
Hi Sherwood Thanks for your latest UFC write ups. I'm an avid wrestling fan who has been thinking of watching more UFC as its become more available in the UK, having a little bet on the matches also give me more incentive to watch it. Hope the results go your way, Also looking forward to the start of the NHL (your write ups are awesome for that as well). Thanks for your hard work Freddie
Thank you so much Freddie and best of luck always.
Sep 3, 2016 00:41:37
Hey Sherwood. Next time in cooperate into your handicapping that Stanford can play rugby in their end zone and not get called for pass interference. I've never seen so many missed PI calls in my life. But at least I have money management which you always preached so can't be too mad. Just waiting to see how long that zebra crew is suspended for after missing 3 huge ones.
Sep 1, 2016 11:40:37
F.Y.I. Re: Washington over 7.5. At Bet365 it's even money. The Under is -130
Thanks for the heads up and taking the time to send this Greg on behalf of everyone that is looking for the best number.
Aug 31, 2016 17:20:45
No Golf this week? :'(
The fields are tough Chris in the playoffs so we're going to take a three or four week break.
Aug 31, 2016 11:20:44
Well said Cam. DITTO!!!
Barry M
Aug 31, 2016 06:58:24
Your reply to Jason is a thing of beauty!!!
Thank you Jimmy!!
Aug 30, 2016 18:28:53
Sherwood don't let that idiot get to you, like at all please. If I found a bookie who would let me bet the day after a game I wouldn't have to follow your site for all your in depth analysis. Even an idiot can understand Estrada is a good fade. Well most idiots. Apparently there is one idiot who can't. But that not makes your website the best place for picks. It also makes it entertaining. I read all your comments. Most people appreciate the good and hard work you do but you can never please everyone. Please don't cut him off. I want to hear his bullshit over the next few weeks and watch him turtle into a hole as he has done all year. My only recommendation is don't even give these fucking clowns the time of day. When we win (and we win a lot following you) we barely ever say good job. But if you lose we jump on your back and say what thinking. So don't listen to these small minded my mommy didn't kiss me good night idiots. 90% of us cherish you and.your insight. Let this fucking clown post all he wants because almost everyone who reads this website will laugh at him.
Thank you Cam. It bothers me not one bit but from time to time I like to give these losers a little space until the next one shows up. I do get a ton of positive feedback and for that I am grateful. Guys like yourself mean a lot more. I appreciate the kind words and the time you took to write. PEACE.
Aug 30, 2016 12:03:27
Ho hum, another Estrada fade and another 2 units in the loss column. Keep fading. The metrics say so.
Ho hum, another troll with nothing better to do. But since you brought that up Troll, let's look at that. Toronto is 13-10 in games Estrada has started this year. He has been a dog once, against Boston and David Price, a game they Jays would lose. Estrada has also lost as a -195 fav, a -200 fav (twice), a -150 or better fav three times and the list goes on. If you bet Estrada every game this year, you would be stuck over 4 units. So troll, since you have nothing better to do than wait for Estrada to get lucky and win, the past month must have been a long one for you. You have written me in the past about us being wrong about Gallardo, the NY Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, CC Sabathia, Colby Lewis and others and every single time you look like an idiot and disappear for a few weeks before re-emerging. You will NEVER get more space on this forum, as I rarely give time to anyone without sense anyway. Now go back to your mother's basement, where you live and get high on another joint before you fall asleep on the couch wishing you had a bet on ANY game. Fucking loser. Poof......BE GONE!!
Aug 30, 2016 11:37:15
Let me quickly sum this up. Amazing write ups, you are a stand up guy, handle criticism extremely well, and now a podcast that will quickly become my favourite one. Keep up the terrific work sir! (Way to expose those touts!)
Thank you so much Brandon. We appreciate the support very much.
Aug 29, 2016 23:08:50
Excited for football season. You are one of the main cappers I follow. Love the insight. Especially when you line up with Skyblue picks football. It is MONEY!
Thank you Jeremy.
Aug 26, 2016 13:24:48
Four excellent write-ups on Wednesday. Just a half run short of perfection, but still great angles. Looking forward to the upcoming hot streak! Keep up that hard work!
Thank you Dingle. It's a long swim back to respectability this year but it's one day at a time.
Aug 26, 2016 11:29:46
Great call on the Atlanta/Miami game going under. You were dead on.
Mark Daloisio
Thank you Mark
Aug 23, 2016 13:56:52
Wow, Reds, Angels and Marlins today!...I got the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Royals!...Something has to give!
Aug 22, 2016 14:59:24
I'm a big fan Sherwood. I'm curious if you've ever had an issue chasing losses. I'm a plus ROI player but I give it all back on those few days a year where I increase my wager and chase the losses to a big daily hit. How do you control yourself and keep your discipline?
Thank you Don. There is no real answer to that. Discipline is something you either have or do not. It's the same as bad eating habits. You have to make a decision to not chase, not press and stay within your boundaries and stick to it. It's difficult, especially when you see a game that looks good. Discipline is something you need an abundance of but it's also something you can train yourself into having. It truly is mind over matter. If it doesn't work this time, keep trying and it'll come. Best of luck
Aug 22, 2016 12:42:27
Hey Sherwood, I am heading out to the desert soon was just curious if you had any positions on college football win total? You gave me some great advice on Diamondbacks under. Thanks Bruce
Bruce, win totals in NCAAF are very difficult to play because they are limited to power conferences mainly and because the are now posting 30, 40 and 50 cent lines. In other words, you may see -170 on a win total to go over with only +130 on the under. That makes the house edge or hold very difficult to overcome and therefore it is not worth the wager. Instead, we posted a play to win the DIVISION that is now posted. Good luck in Vegas.
Aug 20, 2016 23:32:41
Glover? REALLY? Man, you must be confused. Time to give up on UFC. Worst. Pick. Ever.
Said the genius after the fight was over. Danny, I have a great bet for you....Bet McGregor to win by decision over Diaz and let me know how that turns out. What an idiot. Now buzz off and go bet the Reds to beat the Dodgers yesterday. Stupidest. Comment. Ever.
Aug 20, 2016 00:03:55
Damn, you are getting your butt kicked this year by MLB! But I see the last three seasons you made some good money. I for the life of me cannot win at baseball, seems like there is so many factors. I notice you put a strong emphasis on starting pitching. And I notice early in the year you bet a lot on 5 innings, so my question is why not stick with that all season? Hope you find success soon
The reason I don't play the five innings anymore is because the lines are usually much shorter. By playing full game, it gives us the option or ability to buy out of liability if we have a lead after 5 frames. Furthermore, we have other options with live betting if we have the lead. If that lead is four or five runs, we can wait until the 6th or 7th inning and the odds increase significantly on the team trailing. Just so many more options available in this day and age in the full game bet Tom and it's for that reason, we play full games. For instance, we have a loss posted on the White Sox and Mets on Thursday but I was able to buy SAN FRAN at 6½-1 when they were down 4-0 and was able to buy Cleveland at 2½-1 when they were down 3-2 in the 8th. That gave me free-rolls on both games with no possibility of losing. We urge everyone to utilize the in-game betting that all books offer now.
Aug 13, 2016 21:12:39
Hey Sherwood. It's the top of the 6th of the Redsox game and we are down 4-3. Even if we don't end up making the comeback,this was an amazing call... Arizonaès pitcher was glorious. Buchholz was awful. Got a couple lucky double plays to not look so terrible. Then that home run by an inch and error giving the Redsox 3 runs. I'm sure when most people comment mid game it's to tell you how stupid your bet was. But I'm still on board. Great call.
Thank you's so true. From game to game the luck variance in baseball is so large. Even Boston's fourth run was a one hopper over the third baseman's head. That ball bounces an inch lower or if the third baseman is playing a step back, it's an easy out. That routine fly-ball to second base changed everything too. It changed Bradley's mindset and was the turning point for sure. That's a 5.4 unit swing. The Reds blowing a 4-run 9th inning lead last week was another 5.4 unit swing. There is such a fine line between winning and losing in almost every game, which is why I insist on playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. Thanks so much for the support Cam. You get it.
Aug 13, 2016 19:32:35
Nice write up on that Weaver kid! You would've nailed it had you went with it. Tough to do it either way but damn that would've been a nice hit for you. However as tempting as it was, he did almost lose it in the 2nd inning, I think once he got out of that he calmed the nerves a bit and did his stuff but Reyes was the focal point of that win. That kid is the real deal, Reyes, it seems. Love to see him start a game.
Thank you Eric. I think you'll be seeing Reyes start soon. Those first timers can have great value despite the risks. Had Weaver been up against any other team or at home, I probably would have pulled the trigger. DAMN IT!!
Aug 11, 2016 17:29:56
Sherwood, do you know the percentage of games that have a run scored in the 1st inning or an idea of where I can find past records, say 2013-2016? Thank you Sir!
Scully, a reader was kind enough to chip in and said you can find what you are looking for here:
Aug 11, 2016 12:45:07
The Yankees the best pitch staff in the AL East ????????? The only one worth anything is Tanaka. Pineda and Eovaldi are nothing but under achievers. And CC ?????? Really ?? He needs to retire with A Rod. Spin the wheel for your fifth starter to play scrub roulette.
I didn't say best starting staff, I said best pitching staff. Eovaldi and Pineda are nothing alike. Pineda is on the verge of elite while Eovaldi is not. C.C. won't be around next year and will not pitch if games mean something in Sept. They'll give Adam Warren starts instead. Whose staff is better? Boston? No chance...Balt, gimme a break..Toronto..Estrada and Happ are on borrowed time with Sanchez and Stroman being the only reliable starters.
Aug 10, 2016 13:48:34
I know you bet mostly dogs but you can still estimate the juice between favorites and dogs. The House gets it both ways.
Barry M
True Barry but I can't be sure how much juice I pay a year.
Aug 9, 2016 13:27:00
Just wanted to point out I think you're assessment on the Rockies ahead of today's game is narrow minded and not something I would use as a reason to bet heavily against. Not only is Dahl playing but was Parra the reason the Rangers scored 3 in the 9th to lose yesterday? You even said it yourself that he's a decent player, and I would expect him to improve as he comes off of injury. I think you're severely overthinking this, and I hope I'm wrong. Just wanted to give my 2 cents - now let's finish the season strong!!
With all due respect George, if the Rocks lose today, a series of factors will determine it. I am merely pointing out that the Rocks "broke" up their momentum. Why not let Parra pinch hit or wait until they lose a game before instilling him in. The reason is because they would rather lose than pay a guy 9M per to sit. I am not saying that Parra will be the reason should the Rocks lose today. I am suggesting that the decision to break up the lineup breaks the momentum and cohesiveness of a unit that was going good. We'll see what happens. Personally, I think the timing was bad. Wait for a loss then get him in. In any event, I appreciate the comments and/or another point of view. Best of luck,
Aug 7, 2016 11:18:50
Sherwood, any idea how much juice you pay over the course of a year?
Barry M
No, I really don't have any idea Barry. It's very likely less than most, however, cause I do not bet a lot of favorites, I bet a lot of ML dogs and I don't bet many point-spreads in basketball.
Aug 6, 2016 08:35:29
Hey Sherwood, MMA or UFC or whatever that crap is called is not a sport-please stop betting on it. I grew up, same as you when boxing was a real sport-this is not - so stop ...please. Rough stretch...but nobody, I mean nobody offers your analysis for all to see and posts the outcome. For instance Morency - loves sports but what a joke. Hoping for better times.
M: With all due respect, whether it's a sport or not is irrelevant. There is far less luck in UFC because there are no fumbles, no hot goaltenders, no bloop singles and no errors among other things. The value is tremendous and while I appreciate the kind words and the support, I have to disagree with you in your suggestion to stop betting UFC. WE LOVE IT OVER HERE! Again, thanks for the support and kind words M! Best of luck always.
Jul 25, 2016 12:36:32
I feel your pain, brother, could not believe losing that Edmonton game, i could just see it coming in the second half, to top it off, I checked out the buy out option on 365 before I went to the track, I looked at how many people were ahead of Vegas and decided to cash out, I got 3-1 on my bet, better than nothing, just about crapped when I got home and saw that Vegas had won....had him at 110-1.....I wasn't even going to check before I left...... I had to laugh....that's gambling, but I did keep my top 5 finish for Vegas, cashed that one, good pick on him.
Spoken like a true to the track and checking bets before. I love it! Thanks Kooner for taking the time to write and glad you cashed something!
Jul 25, 2016 12:15:21
Hey Sherwood, I have never bet golf but by am I kicking myself for not putting 20 bucks or even 5 bucks down on Vegas lol. Do you have any thoughts on the argos game tonight? I know nothing about the CFL and don't even want to pretend to. Thanks
Golf is a great sport to bet because of the low-risk/high reward payouts that go with it. There are big longshots all season long that hit frequently and it's so worth it to play it, even if it's just for a couple of bucks Cam. My CFL writeup on tonight's Argos game will be posted very shortly.
Jul 24, 2016 23:29:10
When I saw no one had said one thing about your amazing, yet insightful, prediction on the Canadian Open I realized probably no one played Vegas. That is Jhonattan Vegas at 110-1. Giddy What Up my friend. Nice call....big bucks! A round four -8 to come from 14th position. Get real. As always, thanks for sharing.
Thank you Scully.
Jul 22, 2016 14:26:27
Love your pick of the Phillies tonight. The Pirates are the second to last team vs the slider and Eflin is almost exclusively fastball-slider. This will obviously lead to trouble vs. lefties but which Pirates leftiies really scare us. Keep up the good work
Thank you Darryl. Good points too!
Jul 22, 2016 12:52:25
Being from Ottawa, I was hoping you wouldn't make the mistake of being on Sask cuz it's truly likely to look like that once the game is over. Durant out is huge and while Gale looked good early on last week (only 4 points in 2nd half though), the Redblacks now have recent game film on him. Sask also lost an OL(Labatt) and a WR (Chambers) while Redblacks get 2 returning DB's to the line-up. Chris Jones only knows 1 way to play defence and that's to all out blitz. BC killed him in the 2nd half last week with 50+yd TD's where the receivers were wide open. Enter Redblacks with a better QB and better set of receivers than BC and it will all be the same. Harris has a quick release and the blitz won't matter yet Sask will blitz and leave their DB's on an island. Most confident CFL bet of the year. Ott -6 and also Ottawa double result to lead at half and at the end at -110.
You might be right Paul and I especially give you props for sending this before the game starts. You make some very good and valid points but my position is the same, which is to not try and predict outcomes and just play value.
Jul 19, 2016 12:22:18
What are your thoughts on Milone v Sanchez this evening? I was expecting you to be on the Twins given your previous positions on the pitchers involved.
Was very close to taking Milone Joel. Sanchez is weak but Minnesota didn't score yesterday and Milone is a career minor-leaguer mostly. Milone always gets chances, performs well for a game or two or three and then gets whacked for eight games in a row and sent back down....I got two good starts out of Milone when backing him the past two games so I think the opportunity on him has passed. That said, I would not want to take you off a game you like. Milone and the Twins absolutely have a good chance of winning tonight.
Jul 18, 2016 15:09:50
My uncle once told me that only degenerates bet on baseball! You are down 39.22 units on baseball and I think you struggled last year with it as well. "Baseball been berry, berry good to me" is not in your vocabulary recently. Have you ever considered easing up on baseball and just feasting on the fall sports like you did last year? Just curious.
Your uncle would be misinformed Scott. Some would argue that only degenerates bet on football. Back before the internet, Las Vegas books feared the baseball season more than any other season. The "old" pros would bet nothing but baseball. So, no, I would never ease up on baseball. It is my favourite sport to bet along with hockey because of the money lines. The great equalizer (the point spread) is not a factor.
Jul 11, 2016 06:45:56
Once again, fantastic results yesterday! To go out on the contrary limb and back these huge underdogs is really paying off. But after reading your writeups filled with great underlying stats that are missed by 95%+ of bettors, there is only confidence on my part and not a feeling of throwing away money on these big dogs for a shot in the dark. I'd further say that after reading your writeups it feels like the underdog should be priced as the heavy fav and even if the lines were reversed, I'd srill want no part of the other team and their inferior pitching.
Thank you Paul. I'm a big believer in metrics (hockey and MLB) because they have proven to me to be the most accurate predictor of future performances. I dig down deep every day to try and find prices that are off. Thanks so much for taking the time to write. I appreciate the support and kind words more than you know.
Jul 10, 2016 20:55:13
Looking forward to some more of your golf picks - with the "Open" in a few days. I'm hoping for a Sergio win - currently at 30-1. Would even consider a a top 5.
Thanks Jon. I will definitely have some sleeper picks and head to head match-ups for the British Open. Stay tuned and best of luck with Sergio.
Jul 9, 2016 17:00:37
Listening to Yanks Indians and they said Danny Salazar has the highest exit velo off bats of all American League pitchers. With Nathan Eovaldi second I can see that as not a category to be leading in because Evo sucks. Salazar must be strong in other areas. Your thoughts as a metrics guy.
Interesting Adam. Although I have heard broadcasters comment on "exit velocity" I have never seen any stats regarded it. I would have to see if the names change from year to year as to who is the best and worst to determine if it's a luck driven stat or one that consistently has the same names at the top and bottom of the lists. Salazar most definitely has some good skills but perhaps, like Eovaldi, his fastball comes in flat a high percentage of the time. Interesting for sure but not enough info on it to know if it's relevant or not. I'll have to do some research and if it is relevant, I will include it in my criterion.
Jul 9, 2016 11:18:49
damn that Redblacks' fumble on the one yard line with under 2 minutes to play!
Damn is right Scott but the missed interception in OT was actually worse. An 8-year-old girl could've caught that ball and I'm not kidding. Luck plays a part in many outcomes.
Jul 8, 2016 14:26:13
Good pick on Derrick Lewis last night! Made some decent money on that one! He out-struck Nelson and was the aggressor for most of the fight, so I had no doubt in the judges outcome. Nelson's takedowns meant nothing when all he did was lay there until Lewis easily got up.
Good points. Thanks Harold.
Jul 8, 2016 14:14:37
Lucky Indeed. That Lewis/Nelson result was shocking. However it also is an amazing show of change from the UFC judges. If this fight happened five years ago, we would have seen a 30-27, 29-28,29-28 unanimous decison from Big Country. FINALLY the industry have put less weight on takedowns and top control that doesnt include an offensive output whatsoever. Seeing the Significant strikes around 40-5 for Lewis at the end of the fight won him the match rightfully so in the entire scope of the fight, however he clearly lost two rounds by the old standard. Rewarding a fighter for dominating the actual offense, and not for laying and praying for a decison is so great to see. Added bonus: The underdog selected cashed, not as expected, but a winner is a winner.
Thank you Dingle. That's educating. Good info
Jul 8, 2016 12:05:28
After having a good chuckle at the banged up Online and humidity comment I just wanted to say I think we got lucky last night with the Derrick Lewis pick. He came out flying and we were set but tired out. He obviously won the first round. Obviously lost the second as he was on his back the whole time. When it came to the decision I was worried but once again you were on the right side. Good pick man. Thanks for everything.
You are very welcome Cam. I watched the fight too and was shocked when the decision came in. I think the "Black Beast" was even more shocked. Indeed we got lucky but at the end of the day, nobody cares about luck, just results. Thanks for writing!
Jul 7, 2016 21:51:01
Hey Sherwood, love your upset picks Thursday, wanted to give you a heads up on Calgary. The O line is very banged up going into a very humid place this time of year. If I was Stamps GM the first thing I would lobby for with scheduling is a game out west during the Stampede. Ottawa gonna win big!
I don't really understand the correlation between a banged up offensive line and humidity but thanks nonetheless Tom. We'll see how it plays out. Best of luck!
Jul 3, 2016 07:52:55
Great call on the Mets Friday night Sherwood. Your quote: Hammel is a ticking time bomb" was dead on the money. Your reads on other pitchers are usually dead on too. Thanks for posting every day for free. As you would put it, you are the straight goods!
Thanks very much for taking the time to send a message Will. I try hard and dig deep.
Jul 3, 2016 06:06:03
Props to you Sherwood, your a class act ! I make a living betting sports but I must say I never pick my final spots until I've consulted your website. You are world class good sir
Thank you so much -110. I appreciate you saying so.
Jun 30, 2016 00:01:03
Great CFL picks on Saturday Sherwood, very, very cool, great job. Now I will get rich just following you on CFL and fading you on Estrada! Just kidding! Good solid work on both dawgs, thanks
You are welcome Tom. Hopefully we'll keep it going this week.
Jun 28, 2016 06:10:56
The definition of insanity-doing the same thing over and over and not learning from your mistakes. Just move on from your personal vendetta on Estrada. You make insightful points but your beating a dead horse and taking a beating yourself. Good luck with your picks
Mike D
Actually, the quote is...and it's from Einstein is, "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results". Thing is Mike, I don't expect different results. I play value and Estrada should not be favored in Colorado. He should not have been favored -190 over Arizona and the list goes on. He's not elite but he's often priced like he is. As long as he's overpriced, I'll keep betting against him, just like I do against Sabathia, Colby Lewis, Iwakuma and a few others. So call me insane. By the way, the beautiful thing about baseball is that you can't kill the clock. You have to throw the ball over the plate until 9 innings are complete. NOTE: This message came in when the Jays were up 4-0 in the sixth inning but would go on to lose 9-5.
Jun 27, 2016 17:31:36
Hi Sherwood! I'm on board with Your Rockies pick Tonight! This could be the spot for regression. It would almost have to be. If not, Estrada may simply be a magician. lol. Always appreciate Your hard work Sir. Much respect.
Thank you so much Jordan
Jun 27, 2016 09:16:43
Estrada's flyball tendencies won't play well at Coors. Rockies and Rockies team total over are the plays today.
It's encouraging to know that I'm not the only one that doesn't believe in Estrada. Good luck Joel
Jun 26, 2016 15:06:30
Gonna help you out by saying no way you finish up this year after this start......which means you probably will! Good luck, I mean judgement!
Ha-ha....Thank you Scott
Jun 26, 2016 10:21:17
What's so good about your site Sherwood is that you are honest and have integrity. How many people in the sportsbetting business would let others see them lose 80 units in month!? How about none. You never ask for anything, not even a signup and that, too, shows you are genuine. Sherwood, I wish people understood the work that goes into your well-researched analysis. Not only are the picks solid and consistent but you always provide a laugh or two almost daily. Keep up the great work you do. I'm a fan.
Thanks so much Rex. There is no benefit to being dishonest with my results. Win, lose or draw, the games will be here tomorrow but I may not. Keeping it real man. Thanks again for taking the time to write...your message brightened up my day.
Jun 26, 2016 10:15:32
Sherwood, Well done on CFL opening weekend, 4-0! I wish I took the time to have a look but was working all weekend, hope you have a similar showing next week. Take care, -
Thank you Chris.
Jun 26, 2016 01:14:23
You swept the CFL weekend! Awesome and congrats!
Thanks Mike. Still a long swim back for us after digging a deep hole but we'll stick with it.
Jun 24, 2016 14:39:59
Hey Sherwood, you have nerves of steel to post your plays every day. By doing so, you expose yourself to some abuse. Nonetheless, I just want to say how much I have personally learned about sportsbetting by simply reading your analysis and hearing your reasoning for your bets. This free service you provide is invaluable to so many and I just want to say how much I appreciate your site. It has become part of my routine going on eight years. Keep up the great work!
Thanks Ben. You made my day.
Jun 22, 2016 19:30:04
Sherwood - wanted to get your opinion of Andrew Loupe as a PGA pick this week at 175-1? 4 top 10s this year (including quail hollow in May), and the guy can hit it a mile which helps on the long Congressional track. At 175-1 I realize it's a crapshoot, but odds this long for a field this week are generally reserved for absolute no hopers. Thoughts?
There is no way that I would take you off a 175\1 shot Mike. I think you found a pretty sweet overlay there and I wish you the best of luck. I will play it too. Thanks for sharing.
Jun 22, 2016 15:58:45
Estrada tied some kind of record yesterday and the Jays still find a way to lose the game; at home to boot. I also believe that Barker would be proud of your overall record. As for the idiot who suggested that a $100 dollar bettor would've lost $8000 dollars that day obviously hasn't read your advice about staking no more than 2% of your bankroll on each bet. 9 winning years. Keep up the overall good work you and your staff do.
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian. It is a day-to-day grind that I wouldn't change for anything. I appreciate the support very much.
Jun 22, 2016 14:03:10
Well Sherwood! The soccer Gods Taketh, and than they Giveth back generously. Iceland managing to not only hold on to a draw but score in the final seconds of added time helps erase some of the bad luck you suffered last week with Ronaldo missing a penalty kick! I smell the turn around brewing! Excellent night in baseball last night!
Thank you Dingle.
Jun 22, 2016 10:28:23
I've been a professional gambler for 50 years and could not agree more with Brents comments. Even Barker would be proud of your record. Tough times will ultimately define your true character. I'm betting on you Sherwood.
Barry M
Thank you so much for that vote of confidence Barry. It really means a lot that someone with so much experience and knowledge would take the time to send that. Here's to better results in the near future!
Jun 21, 2016 16:35:20
In the early 80s I was just a young kid in Vegas at a little shop called Little Caesars it is now where The Paris hotel and casino is located I was talking to an older gentleman who I did not know and for about 45 minutes I listen to every word he had to say and the gentleman's name was lem banker at the time I did not know who he was as it turned out he was one of the few people that made a living betting on sports The thing he told me and I should never forget when you go on a losing streak and it happens to everybody don't push plays take a few days even a week a couple weeks off and come back fresh. Take some time off you work very hard at this but the harder you try to get out of the quicksand the faster you sink. Please for all of your followers take a break and come back fresh good luck
Thank you Brent.
Jun 21, 2016 15:04:05
Happy Eric Estrada day !
His name is Marco. Eric (spelled Erik) was an actor that played on a hit TV series called CHIPS. And if you play poker and bet on Estrada, you will be out of chips real fast.
Jun 21, 2016 14:17:37
Thanks for all your MLB picks...I told you I'll be back...Don't stop doing what you're doing...
Thank You Vinnie. I'm in a deep hole and it's a long swim back.
Jun 21, 2016 13:00:08
Texas/Toronto parlay (2 to win 2.82) Keep trying to convince yourself that the Estrada implosion is coming. And good luck stepping in front of the freight train that is Texas .
If you make this parlay and lose, you're a fool and if you make this parlay and win, you are still a fool. Back in the day, people who made these types of money-line parlays on big favorites in Vegas would get comped front row tickets to see Tony Bennett.
Jun 20, 2016 22:14:43
Truly an unbelievable stretch. Perhaps this is a cautionary tale on the perils of sports gambling. Even someone with a long history of success can lose a heckuva lot of money in a hurry. I will make an observation on your 2016 baseball season. You seem to be relying on analytics more than I can recall. When I first started following you, I don't think these advanced stats were even available. Maybe it's time to go back to basics. Kick it old school. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. And you weren't broke going into this season.
You are right in that analytics were not widely available back when I started many years ago Joel. However, we MUST use the tools that are available to us that gives us an edge. Not using them would be akin to the NFL not using replays because the game was just fine "back then". This is indeed a horrible stretch but it's also an incredibly unusual year in baseball, which I have elaborated on in today's Texas/Cincinnati writeup. I am confident in my ability to find underpriced/overpriced teams and pitchers and will fight like hell to turn this thing around soon. Thanks for writing Joel.
Jun 19, 2016 22:07:13
Don't listen to Steve? How can someone say that after you go 0-3 on your soccer picks so far and 0-1 in the UFC. Your write ups are good? Ya and that doesn't mean you should continue to pick losers even though they have a good write up to them. Sounds like something a politician would do. Talk the talk but won't walk the walk but yet still lie to the people! Don't listen to Steve? Lolol keep listening Harold and throw your money down the drain. That is if anyone has any left. Even a 100 dollar player is down 8000 dollars in the last thirty days. Nobody can afford to keep going, and if they can then they would be higher then a 100 dollar player and be broke anyway because there 100 bet would be 500 or 1000 per play. Sherwood focus!!!! And enough with those who follow me know. At the end there will be a profit yet how long can one sustain losing.
With all due respect those four picks should be 3-1 and not 0-4. However, at the end of the day, a loss is a loss is a loss....Still, if I see value in something, I will post it whether it's soccer, baseball, or anything else. Things will turn for the better soon.
Jun 19, 2016 21:45:29
Sherwood you are an excellent capper and your site is always a must read, cannot thank you enough for your advice over the last ten years. That being said my friend, get off the Estrada thing, the guy has no speed but can pitch, Dan Shulman pointed out that after a season and half this is no fluke. Your a good man but sometimes a wee bit set on a idea, but hey we all do this time to time. Love the conviction but its time to come off the ledge, hey do it for your kids, it is Fathers Day! Smarten up Sherwood and keep up the good work
Since Dan Shulman said it, it must be true. Anyway, I post what I wager on and it's up to you if you want to play it too. These are my bets and suggestions. Obviously you can listen to Dan Shulman or anyone else and make your decisions based on everything. All I know is that metrics do not lie, they have never lied and Estrada's lack of skills will catch up to him.
Jun 19, 2016 20:00:03
I have to agree with Harold. Croatia and Portugal both let you down brutally. Soccer picks are a great read. Was hoping to see one for today. but site maintenance when I checked in. BOL looking ahead, and lookin for an England Slovakia pick for Monday!
Thank you Kev. We will be providing soccer picks throughout the tourney. If I didn't think there was some value in them, I wouldn't post any.
Jun 18, 2016 22:17:45
Don't listen to Steve, these soccer write-ups are great. That Portugal game today was probably the worst luck any team has EVER had in the history of the Euro. Austria had no business being in that game, and let's not even mention Ronaldo missed a PK in the 79th minute. Keep it up Sherwood, your hard work will pay off.
Thanks Harold. Boy, it's been a tough stretch for us, unlike anything I've ever been through before. Back to drawing board on Sunday with a fresh slate and more determination than ever.
Jun 18, 2016 14:20:59
Sherwood stop the bleeding. Stick to your favorite sport. BASEBALL. feel as though people have influenced you into going outside your comfort zone with soccer and now UFC picks. Please don't say tennis is next!
Jun 17, 2016 17:47:42
Brian: surprised you have not been on Cole hamels lately, especially since Texas has been the dog the last few times he has pitched.
Jun 16, 2016 10:38:31
Congrats on finally coming to your senses and saving another two unit loss by not fading Estrada yesterday.
I didn't come to my senses Sam but thank you nonetheless. I didn't like Hellickson against Toronto although Estrada had another good outing ON PAPER. His day is coming and it's not going to be just one day either. It'll be a series of blowups once the floodgates open up. Look up Eric Surkamp....pitcher for Oakland A's....that's Marco Estrada's double.
Jun 14, 2016 16:29:17
Spot on with your analysis yesterday including the Cincy pick which looks like it never went in for you but it did for me :-) Each of those 4 games you pointed out the weakness in the staring pitching and all 4 of those teams gave up crooked numbers! It was like reading tommorow's newspaper today. Very impressed and keep it up man!
Thanks very much for saying so Paul and for taking the time to write.
Jun 14, 2016 11:10:37
I agree with Kevin on wanting to see some Euro picks on here. There's something special about the Euro and World Cups where even a novice soccer fan can get involved.
Good point Harold and we are working on it for this weekend.
Jun 14, 2016 07:14:13
Great pick on Philly yesterday. You're the only one I read/heard that went with the dog, and man, you didn't disappoint!
Thank you man. It was all about value, nothing more. R.A. Dickey cannot be priced in that range because he does not win enough games.
Jun 12, 2016 15:34:48
Hi...I'm a regular and avid reader, and I appreciate your hard work and solid analysis every single day.....I have noticed a nice 'middle' available which I am all over....involving San Diego at Colorado.....Sports Interaction has the over at 10.5 @2.11, and Pinnacle has under 12.0 @2.15 ...we don't see this every day!
Jun 12, 2016 07:48:39
Don't you think you're overdoing it a bit with the -1.5 picks this season? Maybe i'm mistaken but i can never remember you making this number of picks on the runline as you have this season. Wouldn't it have been wise to just go safer with the Angels ML last night?. It seems like you're shifting in policy. Anyway thanks for the winning seasons over the last 3 years. This bad start i'm sure will turnaround.
Jun 11, 2016 10:38:03
No picks for the Euro tournament? There's some great value on over 2.50 goals in the England / Russia match later today.
No Kevin. I have nobody to do the selections. Personally, I would rather go to a quilt festival than watch a soccer game so I therefore have no interest in it whatsoever.
Jun 10, 2016 12:39:24
Every 5 days has become a must read. The Estrada angle is fantastic and I cant agree with you more on what you are saying about him.... However, I don't think you need to bet against every single start until he starts to show the inevitable regression. You're not going to miss the boat after he has a bad start, the value will still be there. Carrying a no hitter into the 8th inning at Fenway vs. the top offense in baseball isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for the betting angle you are going with today. I'm in your corner, and support your write-ups for the most part, but -50 units in 30 days.... Really feels like you're chasing. When it's this bad, why not take a few days and then come back with a clear mental state. Good luck with O's tonight... With Estrada's good fortunes, you're going to need it. Take care Pal
Thank you Dingle. You are a reasonable person and I will take everything you said into consideration. Thanks for writing.
Jun 10, 2016 11:49:17
You will be getting an Estrada e mail before the game. Estrada on the mound and you on the Os is EZ $$$$$.
Oh, for sure it's easy money. They are giving it away.
Jun 10, 2016 10:30:20
Hang in there Sherwood! Better times are ahead.
Thank you Harold.
Jun 10, 2016 09:18:54
Can you please pick the Pens next two games. I'm sitting on a Sharks future.
I hear ya AJ. It's incredible how everything I have pick over the past 30 days has been torturous.
Jun 8, 2016 19:11:19
I liked your writeup on the St. Louis / Cincy game tonight, but just can't bring myself to pull the trigger on Simon - he's awful. I opted instead to take Cincy Over 3.5 -118 at Pinny - I've found team totals to be a good way to play Dogs with hot bats. Good luck for tonight (lots of action!) and thanks for your ongoing efforts.
Good post Brent. Thank you. It's another way to benefit from information and to remind others that there are more than 1 way to bet on games.
Jun 8, 2016 06:10:25
Halt your baseball selections. Your metrics and subtext statistics are money burners.
Money burners for the past 30 days, yes, but proven over the past 30 years (15 on paper)...but in your world, 30 days takes precedence over 30 years.
Jun 7, 2016 17:58:32
Taking the braves and the Phillies over the Cubs tonight to break a slump? Don't do it!!!
My model is a proven one Scott. Most people try and predict outcomes. I play value and let the chips fall where they may. Padres scored two in ninth to win 4-3 otherwise we go 2-0 in those games. Chips didn't fall our way in that one.
Jun 6, 2016 21:33:28
Interesting Stanley Cup final. Though I am rooting for the Pens, it seems the Sharks are just gutless which is shocking after their earlier rounds. Their lack of urgency and offensive agression is rather pathetic to watch. They push hard in the last few minutes when behind but it's usually too late. Thornton is hockey's Dan Marino I guess.
Absolutely true Magus, Personally, I didn't see that coming. Either the Sharks simply ran out of gas or they are being outclassed by a much better team. Either way, it's not going to end well for San Jose.
Jun 5, 2016 10:44:58
Sherwood, I wonder if any of your readers are on the Red Sox over bandwagon? Barry M
Probably so Barry. Red Sox are lighting it up at home and frankly, so are their opponents.
Jun 3, 2016 10:13:33
Hang in the Sherwood-good times are ahead! Your approach of playing value and making quality selections is tried, tested and true. Short term variance is bound to happen. Here's to a profitable weekend!
Thank you Gianni for the words of encouragement. It means a lot to me during one of these rough variances. Here's to a great weekend is RIGHT! Thanks again friend.
Jun 2, 2016 22:07:16
Where was Wade Davis tonight? Joakim Soria??? I can't believe the run of bad luck we are having.
It can be frustrating Joel but we'll have some bounces our way soon. Hang in there.
Jun 2, 2016 17:58:49
Maybe just a cheap price on Greinke afterall? Pinpointing when the books are pricing games to trap publuc money must be one of the most difficult angles to play. I understand that the books dont often make mistakes, and they always want bettors to accept the gift horse, but as the betting public myself, when you draw up so many positives on one side in your write up on this particular game, I was surprised to see the trigger pulled on Hou-1.5. As someone that has tailed you on these before (usually college sports, not professional as much), I will always be excited to see the next big trap and fade it along your side. Good days are forthcoming my friend, keep up the great research.
It's really good of you to send me a message like this when I'm running bad Dingle. It is greatly appreciated and means more to to me than you know so thanks very much for taking the time.
May 31, 2016 20:54:43
Do you have any experience working with brokers? I see there are some that offer Canadian accounts for the Betfair Exchange.
Alex: Yes, I use a broker called BET-IBC for the exchange and have had no problems whatsoever. The only issue is sending and receiving money in terms of avenues to get it there and back but once you figure that out, it is clear sailing. That said, I can't vouch for anyone else but if you send me the broker you are thinking of dealing with, I will thoroughly check them out and get back to you, as I have tremendous sources to check out credibility. Good question & Best of luck.
May 30, 2016 21:17:18
Estrada starting to remind me of Greg Maddux . He's got sneaky good stuff with a good sample size .
Patrick Smith
Seriously Patrick? Don't embarrass yourself by comparing Estrada to Maddux. Maddux was a first ballot hall of famer with filthy stuff, great control and was one of the best sequencer of pitches in the history of this game. Estrada will not get one vote for the Hall of Fame, he's always behind in the count and he was well below average in his surface stats for 7 years in Milwaukee. Hell, when he came to Toronto, he didn't even crack the rotation. He was forced into action because of injuries and has been riding a string of extreme fortune ever since. STOP IT ALREADY with the Estrada is great emails.
May 30, 2016 20:19:46
Look like you will be 0-8 on your last 8 MLB can't be this bad...LOL...which book are you working for?
I'm working for all of them Vinnie. I'm trying to give out losers so fade me and let me know how it works out for ya. Now go troll and find someone else on a cold streak.
May 27, 2016 01:46:47
Thanks for the Pitt pick. I also have 4 units on Sharks to win at +360. I'll wait for your pick. I'll probably just let them ride. I have a feeling Sharks win.
You are welcome Michael. Good to hear that you're in great shape for the final. My CUP pick will be posted sometime over the weekend.
May 24, 2016 20:26:31
Penguins = Frauds !
Disagree Jason. Sometimes things don't bounce your way. It's not always a breeze but Pittsburgh has dominated play, they have lost Daley, their coach panicked by using Fleury in Game 5 and Malkin isn't doing much at all. For the Lightning, losing Bishop was a blessing too. The Penguins have had the Bolts down by 2 goals twice and lost the game and they also had a lead with 3½ mins to go in Game 5 and lost. In Game 6, they held the Bolts to 11 shots on net going to the third. With some luck, a few better bounces, the series would have ended two games ago. Adversity reveals character and the Penguins have shown GREAT character and a strong will to win. Not frauds.
May 22, 2016 14:15:21
Terrible break, literally and figuratively, losing Trevor Daley. Not wild about the return of MA Fleury to the Pens crease either. This is on top of the Lightning getting a good break, in my opinion, losing Bishop and replacing him with the steadier Vasilevsky. I think this best of 3 might come down to coaching and Cooper is better than Sullivan. The Fleury move is going to backfire on the Pens.
I don't like it either Joel but I didn't like the Blues going with Jake Allen either so what we think matters not. Time will tell if it's a good move but what we know for sure is that Fleury has played in these pressure filled pivotal games before while Murray has not, as the Penguins breezed through the first two series. Like you, I'll keep my fingers crossed and hope that the Pens can win Game 5.
May 22, 2016 13:02:01
I love your site, and I read every day....I appreciate your hard work, and free insights and advice....I notice you often 'buy back' a bet you made....some days you offer a brief explanation, but today you got away from 2 baseball bets, with no explanation....(to me, Seattle looks like a very good bet)...Don't you lose money doing this? Also, can you please explain why you do this (particularly Seattle today), and how you identify when to do this?
Kevin: There are times that I may eat a small loss (0.01 to 0.05 units) but I only do it when there is "late money" on the team I bet. For instance, Tampa Bay went from a +112 dog to a -104 pick em in the last hour before game time. That puts me on the same side as the heavy late action, which is a side I don't want to be on. It's a heavy "public" side and I try and avoid those. That is the only reason for the buy back. Thanks for the kind words and taking the time to write.
May 21, 2016 17:11:39
Hello sherwood! I have been reading your analyzes about two years now. They have been mostly very analytic and deep in knowledge. Your latest writeup regarding sharkies against blues is what bothers me. It has some very good points and I totally agree with sharks psychological edge, Hitchcocks poor judgement when he decides to put Allen as starting goalkeeper, and sharks wanting the cup more and being the better team. What i dont agree is that its clear as day that Ken has issues with Elliot. Why is it clear as day? I think that its more about desperation when things arent going your way than fight between two very focused and experienced puckheads. With respect, Perttu from finland !
May 16, 2016 16:18:56
The Penguins might not be in trouble yet, but our series handicap wager certainly is. Tampa Bay is 9-2 in the post season. It's unrealistic to expect them to suddenly drop 4 of 5, which we now need to happen. Would you recommend a series bet at this point (-130) to recover some of the expected loss from the handicap wager. Or would that be an example of throwing good money after bad?
Joel: Personally, I have Pittsburgh too many ways to invest more so I'm not playing them at -130. However, you do get a discounted price on them down 0-1 so it's not a bad bet at all. What is most telling to me is that the Penguins are a huge price tonight for Game 2 (-214). In the updated series price, Pinny had them at -140 to open while everyone else had them at -130. Pinny got their wish (the market bought up Tampa Bay @ +120) and the number has been bet down to -123 in the series. This is all good news for us, as Pinnacle (regarded as the sharpest book out there) did not buy that Game 1 loss. The updated series price and the line tonight (for Game 2) says the Penguins are going to be very strong the rest of the way. Personally, I completely trust them to win 4 of the next 5. You will see a different Penguins tonight.
May 15, 2016 22:29:12
Hi Sherwood, I noticed that the Betting Advice section on your site hasn\'t been updated since 2012...Would love to see some new content. I really enjoyed reading the advice. Thanks,
Thank you Rob: Go to the blog section and you'll find a lot of new content.
May 14, 2016 08:12:25
Vasilevsky is better than Bishop. Our Penguins wager is in trouble.
I agree that he's better than Bishop Joel but I don't agree about the Pens being in trouble. Pittsburgh had an off night, it happens....They'll bounce back.
May 13, 2016 21:48:03
Somebody tell the Penguins the next series started. Fn joke.
It's unreasonable to expect a team to play great every single game. Pitt will regroup and come back strong.
May 13, 2016 17:43:26
Hey Sherwood, I know it happens every year but with the struggles of so many budding aces (Archer, Price, Gray, Wainwright, Keuchel) to name a few. What can you chalk up there struggles too? Bad luck or loss of skills?
Strange you would ask that since I have covered all these pitchers in my daily write-ups Shane. Anyway, you can look at my previous results and click on the DAY on the left side of the result in question and read all about these pitchers and whether or not it's bad luck or a skills decline.
May 6, 2016 15:28:34
I love your unorthodoxy. For years I have heard it preached about never betting against streaks or taking home teams to win by 1.5 in baseball. And for years I have been losing consistently. You have opened my eyes. Value is value. Thanks!
Chris G.
Thank you Chris.
Apr 30, 2016 19:24:44
Hi Sherwood! I'm a first-time writer and highly value your opinions and been following you for a few months now. I would like to know why bet365 and all baseball alternative run lines are so low now for -4.5 dogs and -5.5 favs. In the past few years they used to be mostly in the 10 to 14 to 1 odds and now it's hard to find even one above 10 to 1 mostly now they are 7.5 to 9.5 to 1? Yout thoughts?
Rob V
Rob: I'm not sure why but my educated or logical guess would be that the books were either losing money on these bets or not making enough to make it worth their while. They offer "exotic" bets for their benefit and not the player, just like every casino in the world does. Thanks for the kind words and support Rob.
Apr 27, 2016 14:53:03
I've been betting the under in all championship games and Game 7s for years. Thoughts?
If it's been working for you, by all means go for it Jason. Personally, I never bet NHL games under 5 because you can't feel good about any score going to the third unless it's 0-0 or 1-0. It it happens to be 3-1 o 3-2, you have to overcome an empty net too. I don't want to take you off any games but that's the reason you NEVER see me bet under in the NHL. I like the strategy for all other sports, however.
Apr 22, 2016 15:11:39
Highly recommend a series bet on Rays (-105) vs Yanks, As you mentioned , the Yanks struggles against lefties is nothing new and feel it will continue this weekend. Totally agree on Moore still flying under the radar. Would not surprise me if his name is thrown around as comeback player of the year. An added surprise is we now see highly touted rookie Blake Snell getting the call up tomorrow , and yes he throws lefty. Yanks also seem to struggle against first timers throwing against them. Then on Sunday they see another quality lefty in Smyly who's record does not reflect his numbers. I'm pretty high on the Rays this year and they are playing to script so far getting quality pitching and struggling with the bats. I think this is a perfect time to go on a nice little run coming off yesterday's mini offensive outburst.
Apr 21, 2016 22:20:50
I suggested the Jays might be a worthy fade target before the season started, and while it hasn't quite worked out, I think there is still an opportunity. The magic that carried them to the post season in 2015 is gone. There are glaring holes in the lineup and the bullpen. The overachieving rotation is the only reason the Jays aren't several games under .500. That will correct itself soon enough and the seat will get very warm beneath John Gibbons. Eric Wedge might be managing this team by July.
Not sure I agree with all that Joel. Jays have not been hitting well yet. They will and once they do, the wins will follow. Every team has holes. Jays do too but I wouldn't call them glaring. They have two very good starters and Happ is a solid mid-rotation guy. Gibby is a decent manager too and I highly doubt he'll be fired unless things really fall apart. I don't see that happening. It's a little early but time will indeed tell us a little bit more. The Jays stock is dropping so there will be opportunities to buy them at decent prices. Not saying you are wrong, just that your assessment might be a little premature. Again, time will tell. Best of luck Joel.
Apr 21, 2016 20:45:36
What an absolute piss poor first two periods by Tampa Bay. No killer instinct what so ever.
Apr 20, 2016 17:48:44
Respectfully disagree with your assessment of the Flyers tonight. You open by saying "Are the Capitals really motivated to win this game tonight? I think the real question should be, are the Flyers going to be motivated for this game? Flyers to me, looked beaten down. I see two teams going in different directions. Good teams aren't silly enough to take the foot off the gas pedal. I think its a 4 game sweep. And here's to me the telling thing, I was so SURPRISED and DISAPPOINTED by how little the Flyers took advantage of the crowd and the Snider factor. They went up quickly 1-0 within the 1st minute, and then boom.....the Caps took over. I just expected much more of an emotional charge from Philly. Its over tonight.
We shall soon find out Brian. My position is that the Caps haven't been so dominating. Philly has been frustrated by not scoring and at times in the third have looked beaten down. With the realization that an upset is not going to happen for them in the series, I trust Philly has one more really good game in them and it's tonight providing the bounces are equal. You'll notice we didn't play them in Game 3....Thanks for writing.
Apr 11, 2016 20:47:52
Good luck this year in NHL playoffs. Do you have a lot of picks like last year?
Apr 11, 2016 19:03:27
Thanks for the Cabrera over Na pick! I actually got that at +125, so a nice win. Not sure I understand the +0.28 you scored yourself on the Masters...or maybe you just haven't updated it yet.
You're welcome Joe. I scored the Masters as follows: I won 2 head-to-head matches for 4 units. I lost 2.12 on the third head-to-head and also lost 1.6 units on 4 golfers (0.4 units each) to win outright. Therefore, 3.72 units in losers and 4 units in winners adds up to +0.28 units.
Apr 9, 2016 11:40:47
I noticed you like bet on value. I don't see many parlay you make them? Thanks and good luck, Brad
I do wager on parlays and they will be posted in my just added parlay section in the coming days.
Apr 9, 2016 11:37:37
Hi Sherwood, how do you feel about taking all three must win hockey games - Det, Bos, Phi? Rangers going with back up goalie and missing a few key players and you have to believe Pitt sits key players and not risk injury to them. As for Ott game, they're banged up and Bos in must win situation.
My position on must win games remains the same. You pay a premium to bet these teams and while they may win today, the price on all of them is way too high. That said, I don't like to take anyone off of plays so if you like it, bet it. For me, there are far better options in my opinion.
Apr 6, 2016 12:15:12
Long time follower, first time poster and appreciate all the insight and write-ups, even if I disagree or don't use them. My question is two fold: first, I think you've mentioned in the past that this is your full time job and that you use your own money, is this true? If so, how much are you wagering each game? If you are making 40-50 units a year like last year, are you wagering 1k/unit? I can't imagine you betting anything less per unit and even so, a 40k salary is hardly a wage that one can live on. Secondly, if you are wagering that much, how do you sustain losing 10s of thousands of dollars on a bad run and not let that totally stress you out, like the current downswing you are on. Not trying to pry, I trying to see how it's truly feasible for someone whose tired of working 9-5
Steve: While I won`t reveal how much I wager on a game, I will reveal that the games that I post, I absolutely, 100% wager on. However, there is so much more that I do also that cannot be posted daily because it`s too time consuming. I bet line-movements with a few minutes to go until game time. I`ll often bet halftime lines in basketball and football or even bet in-game to take away liability on some wagers. It`s really a process that has me very involved daily during games. It`s not just a unit or 2 wager and seeing the results
Apr 5, 2016 15:02:02
Good afternoon Woody! Hopefully, everything has been treating you well? Only a few more games left as the NHL regular season winds down but no shortage of value in underdog picks to choose from. I've selected what I feel are four solid underdog pooches with value at the rink tonight: NYI +162 **1 unit Isles will be playing for their playoff lives tonight against an uninspired Caps team with nothing more to play for until this regular season ends and the playoffs begin. SJ +104 **2 units Like yourself, i like the Sharks in this matchup. The Sharks have absolutely been playing in beast mode on the road this year and i expect nothing less tonight as they've been 7-2-0-1 during their last 10 games as road warriors. Wild have been reeling as of late and the Sharks will be their undoing. CGY +132 **1 unit Flames offer some solid value here as LA has gone 0-5 on their last five road games and will be playing their second game in as many nights against a very 'loose' team with no pressure and wanting to perform well in front of their fans in the sea of red tonight. MTL +117 **1unit I am also leaning towards selecting a Habs win tonight vs a Florida team in what i think may very well be a trap game for the Cats after clinching their playoff spot in beating the Leafs last night. As usual, i luv your insight Mr. Sherwood. Best of luck with your picks. Cheers!
Apr 4, 2016 18:44:19
Can you please explain how I am able to get Arizona under 82.5 (+135) after the Pollock injury ? I grabbed some at +110 yesterday and thought the books were sleeping at the wheel. Is this guy worth nothing in terms of win totals when he was like a 7 WAR last year? This is a total head scratcher. I feel like I'm the sucker now. What gives ?
I don't believe you got suckered Kyle. The D-Backs had a good preseason and many people were betting them to go over that number. The books can't adjust that number much with no time left until the opener because it exposes them to a middle. I think you made a pretty sweet wager Kyle.
Apr 2, 2016 13:13:27
This isn't likely to be a popular opinion in these parts, but I would look to fade the Blue Jays at the start of the MLB season. There is a tremendous amount of hype surrounding the team which should translate to generous lines being offered for their opponents. There are enough red flags to suggest that the Jays might stumble out of the gates. #7, #8, #9, & #1 in the batting order aren't likely to get on base at a high percentage, which will prevent Donaldson from repeating his RBI prowess from 2015 and that should trickle down throughout the lineup. The failure to close on the Jay Bruce trade leaves a predominantly RH hitting order. EE didn't have much of a spring thanks to injury and of course there are the contract issues with Joey Batts & EE that hang like a black cloud over the franchise. Middle relief could be a weakness, which is bad news for a team where all 5 of the starters could have difficulty pitching deep into ball games, for different reasons. Additionally, Estrada is dealing with a bad back and neither JA Happ nor RA Dickey inspire much confidence going up against the big bats of the American League. The Jays will play solid D and hit a lot of home runs, but I don't think the magic of August/September of 2015 will be recaptured. At least not in April and May.
You make some very good points Joel about the Jays being over-hyped here in Canada. Will certainly be watching closely. Best of luck man!
Apr 2, 2016 13:03:18
Good morning 'Woody'. Great day for some pooch picks at the rink today. I'm siding with you on both your BUF +182, CLB +120 selections but i'm also picking DAL +120 & CGY +120. I was initially leaning towards the Leafs as well but after reading your terrific insight with today's TOR/DET match up I have decided to back away on that one. As a side note, I'm taking the points with both doggies in today's NCAAB match ups. Again, great analysis as usual and best of luck to you this weekend. Cheers!
Thank you Dawg. The very best of luck to you too!
Mar 30, 2016 18:21:30
Was wondering if you and team follow golf and if so, would you consider posting some picks for the 4 Majors? Looking forward to the unofficial start to the season next week and the Masters. Thanks Jon.
Yes Jon, we will have some picks for the Masters and other Majors.
Mar 30, 2016 12:33:29
Sherwood, Nice capping yesterday! It's what I call a 3 Dog Night. Keep up your good work.
Rob D
Thank you for writing Rob...The Show Must Go On and once again there is Joy To the World.
Mar 29, 2016 23:20:17
Nice 3-0 night in the NHL for you. Keep up the good work. I am looking forward to your baseball picks .
Thank you Tim. It took the sting out of a 0-5 the night before. I'm looking forward to baseball too. Best of luck and thanks for taking the time to send me a message.
Mar 29, 2016 23:18:30
Excellent picks last night Woody, 3 for 3! I too was fortunate enough to side with you on both your MON and TOR selections but just couldn't bring myself to pull the handle on your STL -1.5 pick but kudos to you to making that play. Tomorrow, I am leaning heavy towards making two solid picks in ANA -250 & WPG -122. I'm interested in hearing your take on the PHI/WSH game as I feel this might be a trap game for WSH. What do you think, is there any value on taking the Flyers at home in this one? As always, keep up the great work & analysis! Cheers!!
Thank You Dawg....Lemme just say that you are playing with fire in spotting 2½-1 with Anaheim or any team and I would take those bets out of your toolbox because they are simply not worth it. You risk too much to win too little whether they are flat bets or in parlays. You like the Ducks that much spotting -1½ goals is the much better play. Risk less, win more and if you lose, that means the game was so close that you do not want to be in that position when spotting 2½-1. Flyers may offer some value against Washington but I'll have a closer look and it may be on our slate. Best of luck Dawg
Mar 28, 2016 23:44:21
Hi Sherwood, Hope You had a good Easter. Pure Garbage Pekka Rinne Just brought me back to reality. I am so in Pain. You've been saying it all Year but nobody is listenning (Nashville Management). Thanks For all Your Input On the hurricanes, I value that team a lot, been following them all year But cannot take anymore pounding. Please stay away. Everytime You take them they let u down, You bet against them they burn you. Holla at me when U figure them out. Your big fan Jordan
Mar 26, 2016 17:41:28
Do you like the Raptors as 8.5 favourites tonight against the Pelicans? Back to back losses against the Celtics and Rockets, the double-ejection of Lowry and DeRozan last night seems to call for a response. I normally bet against the Raps when the spread is substantial. and tremble at the thought of betting them in the playoffs, but tonight? Maybe?
Your angle is very reasonable Dave. I don't like to take anyone off of a game so if you like, it, bet it. Trust your instincts and best of luck if you decide to bet it.
Mar 25, 2016 16:47:52
Good Afternoon 'Woody'! Once again I'm onside with your take and analysis on the NJD/WSH game and have the Devils +160 down for a couple of units. I just feel that the Caps are playing disinterested hockey at the moment and that the Devils should be able to catch them napping tonight. Another live pooch I like tonight is the NYI +165. Some may argue that the Isles play as of late doesn't warrant a look here but they have had success against the Bolts this season winning all previous meetings. With all the teams nipping at their heels I feel this is a good spot for Greiss and the Isles to respond & step up their game against a familiar foe who may be caught in a potential trap game in looking ahead to their weekend showdown with Florida. Anyways, let the chips fall as they may. As always, keep up the great work & best of luck Woody. Dawg_Bets
You make a good point about the Islanders. They are in a good "buy-low" situation tonight. Line is too high and in terms of value, I think you hit the nail on the head with them. Best of luck Dawg!
Mar 21, 2016 15:32:46
I agree it is not good strategy to look to play the Rangers as they are overpriced. However, this game last week they were a pretty signficant dog against the Ducks so it wasn't a typical situation. Rangers have been horrible but we know they're dangerous and they have way too many talented players to not be considered somewhat of a threat. They are likely headed to a match up with Pittsburgh in the 1st round and thanks to Pittsburgh's play they'll be a dog in that series. From your tone, I know you want to get at the Rangers but I'd have no interest laying anything with Pittsburgh against the Rangers. Perhaps the Rangers are heading to an implosion but I think it is more likely they will be a tough out in the playoffs. I think it will set up that value bettors will be on the Rangers.
When the playoffs roll around, it'll be time to re-evaluate each team depending and look at the matchups too. Seems to be quite a bit of interest in the Rangers these days, both for and against, Good luck Skeeter
Mar 21, 2016 14:03:03
Good morning 'Woody'. I wholeheartedly agree with your takes on tonight's match ups. Time to pounce, as i predict a lot of Dawgs will be barking at the rink tonight: FLA +123 PHI +119 CGY +105 LA +104 Cheers!
Good luck Dawg. Personally, I think that L.A and Calgary, especially L.A. might be a bit too enticing (trap)
Mar 20, 2016 03:37:58
LoL @ Henrik the Rangers supporter. I couldn't have worded it any better myself Sherwood. Anyone willing to lay juice on a below average team at best such as the Rangers deserves to be taken to the cleaners. i'd rather pick my spots and take my chance on the teams with betting value that are under the radar. Nice picks this month so far, keep up the great work and analysis!!
Thanks Dawg...The Rangers have not played well all year but dude thinks because they are much over .500 that they have. Usually I can have a discussion about it but his tone is rude in more than 1 email.
Mar 19, 2016 09:51:03
Recently got paid on your Carolina team wins over and Vancouver under total. Thanks for those, it made the first part of the season quite interesting.
That's cool Trent. Not sure who you're dealing with but whoever it is, they are rather liberal, as I have not been paid yet and never get paid on these bets until the the end of the year after the required amount of games are played for the bet to qualify. Anyway, I'm glad you won and I appreciate the time you took to write to let me know. UPDATE: Another reader said they were paid BY SIA so that's good.
Mar 19, 2016 09:29:36
I don't often disagree with you, but I see value in playing Miami as an underdog today. Wichita is certainly a strong team, but they are taking a big step up in class going against an ACC power as opposed to squaring off against bubble team Vanderbilt and a less-than-impressive Arizona squad. The performance of Pac 12 teams thus far raises a red flag for me in assessing the Shockers win on Thursday. Having said this, I think all of these games are really difficult to handicap and you have done an outstanding job being in the black the past couple days. Looking forward to the rest of your plays.
Thank you Joel. Good observation on the Hurricanes.
Mar 17, 2016 20:04:54
NY Rangers 70 40 23 7 87 A .500 team ? Corsi says so LOLOL !
You think I give a rat's ass about W/L records? That's why you are going to pay extra on the Rangers and lose a fortune. But I was wrong about them being a .500 team. They are actually worse than that. Now go grab a six-pack and lay -160 on the Rangers.
Mar 17, 2016 11:00:05
Hi Sherwood, just need to post to you again that you have incorrect information about Purdue. I'm an alum and have followed this team closely. They DID beat Michigan State and Maryland at home, therefore, they were actually 2-4 against ranked team not 1-4. As a matter of fact, they were 2-2 against teams that were ranked in the Top 10 when they played! I do agree that double digits might be too many to cover, I just want a SU W! Good luck!
Thanks Daryl. I appreciate the heads up. ENJOY!
Mar 14, 2016 12:56:17
Sherwood, I've been a loyal reader/follower of your picks for a few years now. You've been a big aide to me and look forward to your Madness picks. To the fools who bash you, don't ever let those clowns get to you. You're providing a free service (a knowledgable one at that) and I for one am grateful that you take the time to do so. Keep up the good work and let's make some money on the madness...I need some spending money for my Mexican vacation!
Thank you Sarb! Those "clowns" don't get me down. I know the hard work and effort that I put into this site is appreciated and acknowledged by many. I love what I do and it's messages like yours that keep me motivated. Thanks for taking the time to write. You'll love Mexico so travel safe, enjoy and let's get that Madness money!
Mar 14, 2016 12:50:09
Hi Sherwood can you post a few more MLB win totals? Heading to Vegas in a week and would really love to hear a few of your thoughts before I head out. Appreciate all the work you put into the website
Your wish is my command Bruce. Will have one more posted today and will try and get up another one later in the week. Good Luck in Vegas!
Mar 14, 2016 09:13:59
Sherwood, yesterday's NHL write-up on the New York Rangers/Pittsburgh game is exactly the reason why so many check your site before making a wager. That's just one example but you saved me a bet and turned what would have been a losing bet into a winning one. It's not the first time either. Thanks man and good luck in the upcoming tourney.
Thanks for saying so Enzo. Best of luck to you too.
Mar 10, 2016 12:34:04
C'mon Sherwood, massive day off college ball, its rainy, amd Im home for work. Who we betting on this afternoon!?!? ND at home perhaps??? Checking in frequently, hope to see some afternoon action! Lots of Love
Ha ha, thanks Dingle. I'm cautious this time of year because it's difficult to get a true sense of each teams' state of mind. Come Tournament time, I'll have a ton of selections because I know all teams are in the same state of or go home. That said, I do have a couple of games posted today and hopefully that afternoon pick will start things off right. Enjoy your day off!
Mar 8, 2016 17:05:37
Sherwood, I always appreciate your articles on handicapping games, you are a great talent in a tough industry. I want to point out in your FDU/Wagner write up, you incorrectly stated that the prior game was a OT victory by FDU. That game was February 4. On February 18, Wagner went to FDU and won by 20, 94-74. Look closer to the box score, Wagner had a 24-8 edge on offensive rebounds. Wagner outshot FDU by 15. I am with you on the FDU play. Too good an offense to get almost double digit points. Good luck!
Daryl J
Thank you Daryl
Mar 4, 2016 19:07:03
Ok sherwood I need your opinion. This Utah @ Memphis game is as sketchy as they get. The Jazz are a -1.5 favorite currently on the road against a resilient group that is 12 games above .500. Strange. Mainly because tomorrow the jazz opened up as a +1 on the road against the Pelicans who is what 14 games under .500?. What am I missing is this the books trying to get people to bite on the grizz tonight or what?
It sure looks like that way Eric. Grizz could be the sucker play of the day for sure. Props to you for recognizing it. Trust your instincts. Should be interesting to see what happpens. I might play the Jazz myself. Best of luck!
Feb 29, 2016 11:01:07
Sherwood, now your just showing-off. Barry M
Feb 29, 2016 01:28:36
Sherwood, Like Yanny I always look forward to your baseball analysis. You seem to be a step-ahead in finding pitchers under the radar and when to fade the ones with declining skills. Lets get some totals so even though we may not be betting on or against a given team that day we still have a rooting interest. Congratulations on a great Saturday and Sunday. You consistently win over the long haul keep up the good work.
Thanks Greg. I will definitely have MLB season win totals posted and have already found one that I will post this week. Will be looking for more too because it really is one of my favorite types of wagers.
Feb 28, 2016 17:09:07
Sherwood, I've been reading your write-ups for 12 years every day. Your detailed baseball writeups are second to none. Anyone that doesn't appreciate or complains about what you give out and ask nothing for in return is a complete fool. I may not agree with your selections but I get great information and that allows me to make my own decision on whether to wager on the games you recommended, lay off or even fade. Forget what I've bet, you have saved me hundreds and hundreds of bets over the years on games I would have bet but didn't after reading your stuff. Anyone that I know of that visits your site instantly becomes a reader of it for life because the info is so well researched and valuable. Win, lose or draw Sherwood, in my books you are one of the good guys out there and one of the most knowledgeable sports handicappers I have ever come across in 40 years of betting on sports. Looking forward to another baseball season and reading your stuff. Thank to you for this site Sherwood!
Yanny, thank you so much for taking the time to send these kind words of support. Your message made my day.
Feb 28, 2016 14:53:15
WOW!!! Thank you Keep knocking Pal. Barry M
Thank you Barry.
Feb 28, 2016 11:11:41
Is 5-0 good enough Robert? I guess that means you went 0-5 on the Sherwood fade. Once you drag yourself out of depression from getting rocked yesterday, itd be great to here from ya... but guys like you shutup pretty quickly.... guess youre just another tout. All the best Sherwood, keep knockin down them winners!
One think I've learned is to just keep grinding. My partner will tell you that I'm the same even keeled guy every day, win or lose. She can never tell by my mood whether I went 5-0 or 0-5. We just keep looking for value, playing it and letting the chips fall where they may. Just keep grinding.....Thank you Dingle.
Feb 28, 2016 08:11:18
Great day yesterday, solid analysis as always. Time for a long overdue good run. Not always easy for people to remember but there is a lot of variance in sports betting. As you are aware variance breaks even in the long run and solid analysis wins.
Thank you Ian. A lot of variance is about the best way to put it and it's why I stress playing value. In the long run, it wins out, despite the variance. I was looking over my OT and shootout record in the NHL and I'm 12 games under .500 in those. That's a great example of variance. Take 4 of those losses and turn them into wins and it's a difference of roughly 4.2 units per game (lose 2 units instead of winning 2.2) or 16.8 units overall on my season record. That's just one example of how variance plays a part. Anyway, I appreciate you taking the time to write in Ian and send some encouraging words.
Feb 28, 2016 07:48:42
Keep those negative comments coming Robert. They only seem to sharpen Sherwood's focus. How is that fade going? Tough day for you yesterday.
Feb 27, 2016 14:31:16
Jordan was correct that a great man stated, "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds". The quote is courtesy of one Albert Einstein. I simply wanted to give notice to one of the most intelligent men to ever walk our Earth. And speaking of great men, at least in basketball IQ and talent, how about Kyle Lowry willing Sherwood's followers to victory last evening. Nice call.
Feb 27, 2016 12:09:39
Very nice call on the Sabres and Raptors last night Sherwood. Your insight is very helpful and very much appreciated by myself and many others. All the best to you.
Eddie R.
Thank you ER.
Feb 26, 2016 18:19:49
Scully, Keith, I echo the same sentiments about Sherwood! A great man said: Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds. You never take any rest, Holidays, week ends, It does not matter we can always count on you. In sherwood, we trust
Thank you Jordan. "Great spirits have always encountered violent opposition from mediocre minds". That is a great line. Thanks for taking the time to write and acknowledging the hard work I put into this site.
Feb 26, 2016 15:24:38
Sherwood, as always thank you for Sportswagers. As Keith stated, the information and knowledge you share willingly to all each and every day is invaluable to most readers. As Barry said in so many words, the best way to eradicate negative posters, ignore them. I do understand it is easier said than done. Approximately six months ago I wrote to you on this topic, but here we go again. I suspect I will repeat again in another six months as the roaches always return. Losing streaks are inevitable, it is unfortunate but true. However, if you are consistent in using a logical approach and have discipline with your money management, one will survive and succeed long-term. For those who have never had an extended losing streak, it is most likely because they burned through their bankroll chasing. Breaking down the board each day is an arduous task and unfortunately winners are not found each day. It amazes me that people come here seeking your professional opinion for free and then complain when games lose. Here is a thought for those individuals, cap the games yourself, do not blindly follow anyone, and stop betting more money than you can afford to lose. And if Sherwood comes to your residence, places a gun to your head and makes you play his games, as soon as he leaves call the police. Those who are too lazy, immature, economically challenged, and or not educated enough, please move on and find someone who gives 100% winners each day so you will be happy. This site will survive without these individuals and their negative comments. Your point to Robert was extraordinary. Robert, if you are indeed fading and cleaning up cash from your man, why would you ever complain or gloat? Most people who actually win, keep to themselves, collect and ride the gravy train. Again, thank you for your site, most of us find it as a useful tool on a daily basis. Be well my friend.
Thank you Scully. It is messages and comments from people like yourself that keep me motivated, focused and intent on giving my best each day. Thank you for taking the time to write. Could not have said it better myself.
Feb 26, 2016 13:28:13
To Robert, I say this and to anyone else who doubts this man, the information and knowledge Sherwood possesses cannot be paralleled. When it comes to hockey, he is a walking encyclopedia, when it comes to general strategy he has an abundance of practical expertise. When value is stressed its for a reason, I've seen it with my own eyes, its not always going to the way you want it to, but the fact of the matter of remains he knows how to win because he strives to be the best at what he does. Anyone who doubts that, I just can't but help but laugh at the thought of that.
Thank-you Keith.
Feb 26, 2016 13:26:38
Sherwood I think the majority of your readers understand the physic of a gambler. You let Robert (the idiot) trigger your ego. When you address "The Knockers" they win and you"ve allowed them to bring down the collective consciousness of your site. Fuck "em! Barry M
Barry M
You are right Barry. Thank-you.
Feb 26, 2016 09:30:25
It gets awfully quiet around here during these cold spells. You are on quite a run. Betting against Nashville every night has proven to be a good strategy for you . I will continue to fade you. You are just another tout. Regards
I personally keep a record of how I do with each team and in Nashville games, we're up 12 units on the season. Secondly, I usually don't respond to these type of messages but every once in a while I will to show people what type of losers troll the internet just waiting to write in. Anyone that bets on anything goes through losing streaks, It's inevitable. I expose myself to criticism because of my transparent model. At the end of the year, however, we'll be up again, just like always and you'll be broke, just like always. I don't believe for a second that you fade anyone because if you were making money fading me, you would not write in and "complain". Instead, you would collect the cash and be happy. A tout....that's amusing....All we do is give out well-researched, strong information with an opinion. I personally bet on every game I post too. Idiot.
Feb 24, 2016 19:24:30
Hi Sherwood, looking for some insights .... at time of writing, Buffalo is +217 at Pinny including OT, but is +247 in regulation. That extra $0.30 was too much for me to leave on the table, so I went regulation. I was surprised, as I generally view OT as a bit of a coin toss. I'd appreciate the benefit of your thoughts ....
It is a coin toss Brent and that's why the OT price is lower than the regulation price. In other words, if it gets to OT, Buffalo's chances of winning increase. If indeed OT is a 50/50 proposition then playing the dog in OT would be the prudent move. If you are playing favs, then playing them in regulation only at Pinnacle would be smarter because over time, one can expect to lose money with favs in games that go into OT.
Feb 20, 2016 14:11:59
I'm grateful to get the push on Louisville but did they really miss 3 free throws in a row or we would have won....
Yes, that's exactly what happened
Feb 18, 2016 09:27:26
Disappointing how long term followers can't join the baseball pool due to already having made accounts at all your sponsers. Thought you'd be more dedicated to your long time followers.
That's a good point Eric so I have revived the baseball pool page and will be running a second pool for all long time followers. I appreciate my long time followers very much, so thanks for writing and pointing that out.
Feb 17, 2016 21:22:24
How is the exchange treating you Sherwood? Regards, Barry M
Uh, Betfair and all other exchanges made Canada a restricted region at the end of December so all Canadians are now unwelcome. Cannot play there anymore Barry....where have you been?
Feb 17, 2016 11:28:24
Enjoy following and playing your picks Sherwood. Lots of insight and thought on your part. Like the picks tonight just a little worried about the Av's returning home from their road trip. But I guess it is Montreal:) Take care and keep up the good work!!
Thank you Steve. I did look at Colorado returning home (I try and look at everything) but it does not concern me. For one, it was a brief, 3-game trip and secondly, it was not a difficult trip in terms of travel with games in Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo. Go Avs!
Feb 16, 2016 11:29:13
Sherwood, Just wanted to say a quick hello and thank you for all your hard work. The write-ups are not only educational, but a great read in general. Also love listening to you on the podcast. With baseball season around the corner, are you expecting to have any season win totals up? Gianni
Thank you so much Gianni. I will absolutely have MLB season win totals posted this year, as there are several I am working on now and digging even deeper to find something good. I really appreciate the time you to took to write.
Feb 13, 2016 00:26:50
What's up Sherwood! Great call on Ohio NCAAB, They Breezed Through Buffalo, No contest. I truly treasure your pick. Man Oh man, Can You Please tell me what's going on with my team the Minnesota Wild? I am beyond perplexed now. Thank You. In sherwood we trust
Thanks for the kind words Jordan. Truth be told, the Wild are just ordinary that don't do anything at all extraordinary.
Feb 12, 2016 23:49:16
Forget that Florida game. I'm impressed, 4/5 last 2 days in hockey is pretty darn good. The 2 day sweep on the kings games were down right dirty, tough games to pick little bit of luck but nicely done man. Let's keep this little roll Goin.
Thank you Eric.
Feb 11, 2016 17:55:49
Love the one pick today man. I think getting back on track starts with something like this by far the best selection of the day in a huge list of games. There's a few other games that catch my eye today too. KINGS, OILERS REG., WILD, SHARKS REG.
Flames got very lucky. We got lucky. Great game to watch though in terms of entertainment.
Feb 10, 2016 18:38:09
Good evening Sherwood. I think St Joe's should be on our dance card tonight. Frankly, I see them winning outright but would gladly take the 4.5 points that can be found at pinnacle. They are a superior team to GW and like you pointed out a while back, this is the time of year when the goodship Colonial begins to take on water. I think they will spring a big leak tonight.
They did indeed spring a big leak. Good call Joel.
Feb 9, 2016 19:58:16
Reports today that Bob Hartley is benching Monahan, Gaudreau and Bouma for disciplinary reasons, fan 950 Calgary the Flames flagship radio station reporting
Feb 9, 2016 13:44:11
I mean no disrespect Sherrod as I appreciate the free picks you give on a daily basis and expert analysis. But sometimes I really feel you get way too caught up in losing and it harshly effects the results of your picks. Just my opinion man to man, bettor to bettor, but where you see value now is starting to look vastly different than when you seen it a few months ago. But again I know you'll snap out of it and continue to give nice value picks day in and day out but I'm sorry I don't think today is your day. With that said, my opinion of course, the leafs are a minor league team at best without their captain clearly in FULL TANK MODE and in no business should anyone in their right mind be putting money on them to win at any point especially on the road. When management clearly doesn't care about their record why should I place my hard earned dollars on that. Calgary in regulation is much more valuable but for your sake I hope I'm wrong. As for Montreal teams snap out of these funks all the time and it usually ends up in streak of the opposite kind as you taught me several times. The value is on the other side man, seriously. The caps, no argument there, but somethings telling me Vegas wants caps money there. Oilers, Canucks you got some decent insight there I wish you luck. Sorry about the rant man I'm just trying to make sense of some of your recent selections.
No offense taken whatsoever Eric. I appreciate constructive criticism, as we are all in this thing for the same reason. Your points are duly noted and I especially respect that you sent me this before the games started last night. Eric, the intent of your message was to point out some things to help, as you see me getting off track a bit, which could happen to anyone from time to time and so I appreciate the time you took to write. That said, I don't think I was off last night. Leafs outshot Calgary 33-22 and TB outshot Montreal 39-27. Scrivens outplayed Bishop and Hiller outplayed Reimer. Go figure. Like I always say, give me the goaltender that plays better, and I'll give you a lot more winners than losers.
Feb 6, 2016 10:18:01
I meant no disrespect by the Canes/Jets comment. I just was surprised that you passed on the Canes, who you have been bullish about, in that spot at plus money. Sorry if you took my comment the wrong way.
No offense taken Joel. My point was that you had the option to message me long before the game started to ask why or suggest that the 'Canes were a great bet. I look at every game closely. I didn't like Cam Ward in net coming off a long layoff at that price. I didn't see any value in the 'Canes and I was actually not far off, as the Jets still scored three times and had they not fallen behind 3-0 on the first eight shots, the game would have been much different. I respect everyone's opinion but what I don't respect is someone suggesting something to me when the game has been all but decided. I appreciate the time you took to follow up. Now let's cash some tickets today!
Feb 5, 2016 20:18:25
Easy for me to say when it's 3-0 five minutes in, but I can't believe you weren't on the Canes tonight and fading the Jets again.
Please let me know who you like in the Super Bowl if a team goes up 3 TD's cause I'd be really interested.
Feb 5, 2016 01:49:40
Great calls in the NCAAB on Thursday! 3 for 3 'easy' wins, even though Morehead State was close (I am kidding of course when I say 'easy', but I think you know what I mean). I really appreciate your awesome research digging out these gems! Keep up the excellent work! I just want you to know that there are many of us that really appreciate your daily, thankless work...
Thank you Jeff, your message made my day this morning so thanks for taking the time to write it.
Feb 2, 2016 01:05:08
Hey Sherwood, Thanks for the site. As a Preds fan, I have to agree that PR in goal just ain't what he used to be. We need a top notch goal tender! But for the big game props, how about Manning rushing more than 1.5 times for +160 on 5 Dimes. Hell, he will get sacked at least once, don't you think? I believe that a sack counts as a rushing attempt. Keep up to good analysis, I love reading your stuff even if I'm not betting.
Michael A.
Thank you regards to the Super Bowl prop....Manning is going to get rid of that ball instantly. I like him to throw two picks more than getting sacked twice.
Jan 28, 2016 23:55:32
Seeing the King of the Underdog hit the chalk instantly in the Super Bowl, confirms what everyone suspects, a blowout.
Let's hit it.
Jan 27, 2016 09:45:08
Hi Sherwood, guess I wasn't so wrong being Sponge Bob last week. See anything for prop bets this year for the big game, and if so, will you post here? Hockey is going well for you, hope it keeps coming. I was wondering what number would it be before you go for a middle on the big game, Carolina -7.5? Following your write up, I'm in for 3 units, but I'm wondering with the loss of Thomas Davis, how much the line may be affected or how effective the offense of Denver may now be. Thanks again my friend.
David: I haven't looked at the prop bets yet but I will and If I see anything I will post them. I usually don't indulge in props but I will post if I do. As for a middle, I can assure you that the line will not go to -7½. There is a good chance, however, that it will go to -6. At that point, I will decide what to do. I would definitely consider a middle at -6 but that would take away the value from -4. Chances are better that I'll stick with my original wager and roll the dice with Carolina. Frankly, I'm not a believer in the Broncs and trust the Panthers to out them away. The loss of Davis absolutely hurts but guys step in in the absence of others and Carolina has the depth and desire to compensate somewhat. Manning and the Broncs got very lucky in two playoff wins. Manning is simply not effective anymore.
Jan 26, 2016 14:36:07
Hey Sherwood. Any value in the Leafs tonight? Also what is going on with the Vancouver / Nashville line. It opened as a +100 for the Canucks nw a +130. I may have no choice to hop on the Canucks unless you steer me clear with your clairvoyant knowledge of these things. Thanks in advance
Nothing is going on other than money coming in on the Preds. Make no mistake, the Preds are a GREAT team and if they limit the opponents shots, they are usually going to win despite Rinne.
Jan 26, 2016 12:52:25
Why are you not on Nashville tonight!? Is your attack on Rinne that bad? Canucks are coming home for one game after 6 game road trip only to be off for the all star break tomorrow. Preds finally stringing wins together on this Canadian trip just like every other mediocre team in the league seems to be doing these days. The Preds with Glen Healy in net could beat these Canucks no matter how hard they play. You see value?
Two reasons for sure....first, they're favored on the road and secondly, Rinne is in net. I don't bet Rinne as a favorite. EVER. That's just my policy.
Jan 25, 2016 13:00:55
Sherwood, I have a question about a middle. A couple of weeks ago I wagered on the NFC -2 to win the Superbowl. I thought that the teams in the NFC were better particularly Carolina. They have now opened as a 4 point favorite and will probably go higher this week as the public always bets the eye test early. Since the magic number 3 is involved should I middle any or all of this wager? I still like the NFC but 20-1 is tempting.
Jan 24, 2016 14:14:14
Ok you have me scratching my head about your New England pick ,I have all the respect for your knowledge in the sports betting world for I don\'t know many people that can pic as many games as you do day after day and be a winner at the end of the year but I think your are reversing your strategy in this game, a lot of your write ups I have read specifically mention value in your wager(buying low selling high) now tell me how Denver is not getting value here at home at +3, when is the last time Denver was a home dog with Manning, everyone saw how bad Denver looked last week and the odds makers are on to this knowing that Joe public is going to bang New England right now public is backing New England at a %75 rate and odds makers are not moving the line at most places not only that but if this game was during the season the line would favor Denver at -2 or 3, good luck with your bets but Denver all day for me
Thank-you TG. You are 100% right about stressing value, as it is a strategy I employ daily and am always on the lookout for. That said, I can't imagine for a second that Roger Goddell and the NFL will allow a Denver/Arizona SB. A Newton/Brady SB will attract twice the viewership and maybe more so and over the years, I have learned that the NFL always gets what it wants. ALWAYS. I'm not saying it is fixed but don't be surprised to see both NE and Carolina get some calls go their way if the game is not going their way. Here is one of my blogs from last year that explains it more;
Jan 24, 2016 12:26:11
Great site! I think Denver +3.5 had value & 25% ML ...and Air +4.5 at start I see Den Car SB but GL as always..
Jan 23, 2016 19:15:29
Nice work on the Louisville/ Georgia Tech game. Thanks, I always follow you and have that feeling your about to go on a roll, believe your nfl picks are bang on, best of luck and again thanks for your insights, very helpful.
Thank you TOM and you are very welcome!
Jan 21, 2016 18:33:45
Hey Sherwood. I see the play on Arkansas is gone. +2.5 not enough value I take it?
Exactly Cam. I tweeted out that we're coming off that game, as I didn't like the way the line movement went.
Jan 19, 2016 11:10:07
Hi Sherwood, Really interested to see your analysis for the NFL this weekend. Since I'm Sponge Bob Square Pants, I feel like it's NE -3 and Car -3.5 based on recent history. I think you're going to go the opposite and believe that the Arizona D can play even better and that Palmer won't make as many dumb throws as he did against GB. The hail mary's that allowed GB to come back into the game worry me, and the poor coaching decision to throw to Fitz before the 2 minute warning that even allowed all the drama last game concerns me. Carolina has shown they are ready to win, especially beating a team like Seattle who has been to the Super Bowl the last 2 years. Denver...oh man, I realize they have the superior D and run game compared to NE, but when Brady is clicking, honestly I feel like there is no stopping them. Against KC, it's fools gold to think NE doesn't have holes on D, but I feel they'll make enough plays on Peyton to get him off his game, as Bellicheck has done in the past. So I believe in NE and Car to go to the big game, but I won't bet until I read a more detailed analysis from someone like you before I pull the trigger. Keep up the great work, and let us know about any new sites for playing the exchange.
Jan 16, 2016 09:23:09
I felt like I was wearing square pants when I made my NFL picks for the first 3 games this weekend, but seeing you are also on the first 2 favourites re asserts my confidence in my plays this weekend. Excellent write up, and I cant agree with you more with the NE/KC game. No matter how it plays out, taking rested better prepared BB/Brady over Reid/Smith is a must play under a TD. Everyone forgets to acknowledge the Patriots Defense as well... Its all about what they can do on offense in the publics eyes, but I am willing to say that this game will probably turn on the play of NE's Defense. Best of luck this weekend, and I cant wait to see your stance on Sunday's action!
Sometimes there is value in playing chalk and I believe we both found some here. You make a great point about NE's defense Dingle. Best of luck to you too this weekend and always
Jan 15, 2016 13:56:12
See any value in the Pens tonight? Tampa is coming off four game trip to western Canada, as well as a final stop in Denver. Span of 13 days, where things finally started to click but I'm not so sure about them "coming together" yet until they win at home. Pens final game of their road trip and have had 2 days off in between each of their last 3 games. That's pretty nice and they've been playing much better. Not to mention they have tampas number big time. 11-1-0 last 12. I'm sure you have good reasons to stay away but if you had to Choose where would you go on this one?
I do Eric. I was close to posting the Pens. I like the returning home from a trip angle and the days off angle but something prevented me. I like Vasilevskiy better than Bishop. The "kid line" has had four games back together and they're going to go off anytime now. Also, Pittsburgh has been off for a few days as well. I might have wanted a better price on the Pens but you're certainly not off the tracks by betting them. No result would surprise me here but hold a gun to my head and I'm with you because we're really not sure if the Bolts have got right-sided yet. Tonight will be a good test. Best of luck
Jan 14, 2016 22:51:36
Good call not taking Winnipeg. Slop show on both sides of the puck. I bet them and cashed but you were absolutely right to lay off. Our man Rinne strikes again!
Rinne is brutal and Jets are going to be a good fade down the stretch.
Jan 14, 2016 17:00:27
Why aren't we fading the Preds tonight?
Can't stand the way the Jets are playing....undisciplined, sloppy and very beatable almost every game.
Jan 14, 2016 13:45:58
Keep up the great work with college basketball!
Thank you Jason
Jan 14, 2016 10:17:07
Why no fade on the Panthers last night against Calgary?
Jason: It's easy to play results. I had Calgary written up and posted but it was contingent upon Karri Ramo in goal and not Jonas Hiller. When Hiller was announced, we took that game down. We called for the Panthers to be flat and they were but we're all about value so when Hiller starts, we want more than +103 on the team he plays for because he wins a game for his team every leap year. Yeah, we wish we would have bet it but we wish we would have bet Columbus too. One cannot play results unless one is playing with monopoly money.
Jan 13, 2016 02:24:29
Whatever happened to the guy that used to post NBA picks about 2-3 years ago. He was very good. Where can we get his picks? Thanks
In 2011, we had a winning record in the NBA. the 'guy" that did those picks was me. The year after and the year before, we lost 66 and 50 units respectively in the NBA and that too, was me. It's just a sport that I've always had difficulties with and although I follow it closely, I will only make the occasional wager on it and when I do, I will post it Kevin.
Jan 12, 2016 22:22:13
Hi Sherwood...some time back I emailed you to ask for your help in navigating the Bet365 website to find regulation-only ice hockey bets. You replied promptly and helpfully. Afterwards I still could not find bets where I could get half a goal in regulation time and I felt stupid following up with you, so I sent them a mail today. I used your example of tonight's Black Hawks game. Here is how they replied: "I am sorry to hear about the confusion you are having when trying to place your hockey bets. What I will do is go through your points and explain what we offer. Firstly as you correctly stated 3 way betting is regulation time only this is because there is the option for the tie so for example if we use the Blackhawks on the money line you can choose (Blackhawks win , Tie , Predators) so at the end of regulation time one of the 3 options will be a winner. We do not offer 3 way betting with .5 options as there is no possibility for a tie with any bet that includes .5 as you are unable to score "half a goal", this means all bets that are .5 will be 2 Way markets and include Overtime. As for the odds the 3 Way will again not include Overtime , the odds are calculated by our traders based on what they believe the outcome will be. I hope this offers a full explanation to your query." Forgive my ignorance Sherwood, but I still don't see how I can bet regulation spotting half a puck with Bet365, yet you have odds for just such a wager. Can you give me a "slow-learner's review"? Appreciatively, Dave
Dave: Technically, BET365 does not offer -½ puck-lines. However, what they do offer is 3-way lines. A 3-way line technically means that whichever team you are taking you will be spotting -½ puck in regulation. Think about that for a second. Whichever team you wager on when betting a 3-way line means that you have to win the bet in regulation, which is EXACTLY the same as spotting -½. If the game ties in regulation you lose your bet because you are -½. If the team you bet wins in regulation, you win the bet. It's that simple. On the BET365 menu, go to 3-way lines and on the far right, you will NOT see -½ but you will see a money line. Whichever team you bet, you are betting that team to win in regulation, thus -½... YOU CANNOT take +½ at BET365 because they don't offer that. They offer -½ on both the underdog and the favorite. Don't even think of it as -½ (although it's the same thing). Think of it as betting a team to win in regulation. OT is excluded so all ties lose. Don't feel foolish if you don't understand Dave. I would be happy to take you through it again if you still do not understand. Best of Luck
Jan 10, 2016 10:20:47
Just curious reading your +38 units for 9th straight winning year' post on the home page. your 2015 totals in your historical section tally -39.... just curious what Im missing here... but that's a 77 unit discrepancy
Valid inquiry Dingle and what you are missing is that my year tally goes from January 1 to Decemeber 31 while the historical section covers each season of that year. Therefore, any season that crosses over from December to January (NHL, NBA, College hoops, etc) may have different season results than the overall tally of the calendar year. Hope this helps explain.....
Jan 9, 2016 14:28:51
Steelers and Chiefs, moneyline, Bank it!
Jan 9, 2016 13:30:29
The more and more I hear about everyone and their dogs liking the Chiefs the more I like the Houston bet
Jan 9, 2016 10:37:00
My concern with the Texans is that the strongest opponent they have faced lately was New England and they did not look good in that game. And the Pats were not great in the final stretch of the season. To be honest, I don't like either team. However, I think the Chiefs defence might rule the day.
Jan 9, 2016 10:08:55
Think there is value in parlaying all the home teams on the moneyline..pays about 30 to 1. Any NCAAB today.
Yes, I think there is always value when parlaying money line dogs Kevin. 30-1 for four teams that have a good chance to win is great value. As for college hoops on Saturday, yes, I will have games posted soon or by 11:30 AM EST. Best of luck.
Jan 7, 2016 22:10:11
Enjoyed reading your article on KC/Houston, but I must say I totally disagree, KC defense best in AFC, save your money Sherwood! Best of luck, you can't win them all !
Jan 3, 2016 09:13:34
Almost had it with the Arizona bet. The one shocker is how they didn't go for two with 4 minutes left and instead kicked the extra point to go up by 6.... of course they ended up losing by 1. Was it typical football and the coaches just had no idea what was going on or is there some strategy to going up by 6 that I am not aware of? The strangest thing is that not even the commentators mentioned it. I am already aware they are borderline incapable of comprehending the game themselves as everything they say when "analyzing" the game comes after something has already happened. Summarizing is always easier than predicting. Hindsight is 20/20 and they make a lot of money by doing it. But even when Arizona lost by one they didn't bring up not going for two. I'm still confused...
Makes no sense to me either but then again, I'm not surprised Cam. These idiot coaches (and commentators) have no clue when or not to go for 2. I seriously believe every team needs a football bettor on the sidelines telling them when to go for 2 and how to manage the clock because we are nine steps ahead of them all the time. I'm still confused too.
Jan 2, 2016 23:49:52
Cashing on the TCU bet... good for you Sherwood...! Now I hope you cash the Arizona State bet.. Happy New Year and looking forward to a profitable year, from a new reader
Thank you Joe.
Jan 2, 2016 23:09:16
Outstanding work on TCU. Proof positive that you are the best in the business. Very gutsy to stick with the pick. Props.
Thanks Joel, however, I can't take a lot of credit for that because I posted that play when TCU's QB was not suspended and expected to play. My hands were tied with TCU at a pick-em because there was no way I could play Oregon -7 with the possibility of losing both bets. As fate would have it, Oregon's QB was injured for the second half and the rest is history.
Dec 31, 2015 17:11:33
I assume you will be taking another look at TCU now or get out altogether? thx
Mike, I can't get out becauase I played it already at a pick. I'll update my position before game time
Dec 31, 2015 13:36:47
Good afternoon and Happy New Years! The best game of the bowl season is happening tonight between MSU and Alabama... I was pretty set on MSU, but am 2nd guessing myself not seeing it on your board. The line is at 10 now and the total is down to 44.5. With 2 of the top Defenses in the NCAA and an edge at QB, I would have expected to see the Spartans +9.5 /+10 on your board. What are your thoughts on this game, and why dont you see any value on the dog?
I do think there is value on Sparty but I didn't like the line. I thought it was too high and when I see something that looks too good to be true, I don't like to get involved. That's the only reason for me laying off.
Dec 31, 2015 09:17:48
Are you still on Clemson given the suspension to 3 players - the kicker, tight end and wide receiver?
Absolutely Jon. The media blows everything out of proportion and all it does is inflate the line a little bit more.
Dec 30, 2015 22:38:38
Sherwood, all the best during the holiday season to you and your family, Clemson vs the Sooners, I'm loving the over, any thoughts? I know you don't usually like totals but noticed you recently played one in NHL
Thanks for the well-wishes Tom. All the best to you and your family too. As for the Tigers/Sooners over the number, my lean would also be over but I'm not crazy about it, as it's a big number, teams have been off for a month and intensity is very high in a big game. That said, I don't like to talk anyone off a bet so if you're feeling strong about it, by all means bet it.
Dec 30, 2015 17:58:11
I'm sure you are aware of this by now but just in case you are not, you will probably wanna buy back on the maple leafs ASAP. Bernier is confirmed, which means this will probably be an epic disaster no matter how good the leafs play. Bernier has to be the worst goalie to ever have on your side right now. The guy is terrible plain and simple. No idea why he's starting, hopefully Reims didn't tweet something last night.
Thanks for the heads up Eric but I was not going to buy back the Maple Leafs at a loss. As soon as Bernier was announced, Pitt went to -175, a ludicrous number considering how beatable they have been. Had Pitt come down to below the price I bought Toronto on, I would have bought it back but that didn't happen.
Dec 29, 2015 18:04:22
Bold selection on Baylor. Pretty difficult to win without a QB. Hope you know something the rest of us don't.
Chris G.
Not really Chris....I just did what I always do and that's play the value or the market overreaction. It worked out well and hopefully you cashed a ticket.
Dec 29, 2015 17:55:40
Just finished watching the AF/Cal Bowl game. Great analysis and handicap on the game... some bad luck early on by the Air Force Offense, and Jared Goff went off to try and reclaim the top QB entering this years NFL draft. A performance like that may have done just done that at our wallets expense! Im very nervous backing Baylor this afternoon with their horrid Defense, but Ill trust in Da Bears offense and tag along on the +3.5. Good luck and Go Bears!
UNC was exposed again, which comes as no surprise but more importantly, the value was with the dog and fortunately it worked out. Best of luck to you too Dingle and thanks for taking the time to write.
Dec 28, 2015 16:29:13
Just following up on Gianni's note from the 24th...Your dedication and hard work is appreciated...Your methodology and insights are priceless...Happy Holidays..Started following you on Twitter as well..Be well..
Dougie Fresh
Thanks very much DF. Happy Holidays to you too.
Dec 24, 2015 11:32:50
Just wanted to wish you a fantastic holiday season. Appreciate all the hard work you put in to this site-content is second to none! Keep up the great work and here's to a very profitable 2016!! Cheers Gianni
Gianni: Thanks very much for the kind words. All the best to you too and thanks for the support.
Dec 24, 2015 11:27:29
Im Steve's world, lines never move or vary from site to site... in Scott's world, a point spread is apparently meant to be hit at an 80% clip, not the 50-50 clip. I love coming on here to see what someone with some actual knowledge on some of these lesser known games has to say, and then getting complete idiots posting random hate messages because they just don't get it. If you're going to gamble, take responsibility on the bets you make, don't be lashing out like clueless children at the guy offering his free opinion to the public... I don't care what these morons say, the info you are offering on almost all college sports is extremely valuable to me and I'm sure to many others. Look forward to continuing a profitable bowl season with you.
Thank you Dingle. Coming from a truly well-respected handicapper in this industry such as yourself, that means a lot to me. Thanks for the support and kind words.
Dec 23, 2015 20:02:47
Read your college football pick and Georgia southern. Liked what I read and went to make a wager the line is 3.5 at bet 365. Where are you getting these numbers. Is this why your up for the year with a bigtime losing record.
Seriously dude? I take great offense to that. That pick was posted on Dec 21. I always post date of pick in write-up and NEVER cheat on numbers.
Dec 22, 2015 13:07:48
I continue to enjoy your analysis and work. Have to step in and disagree with the analysis on the Utah St. game although I have no opinion on it. I think Utah St. is the better team so this isn't an even game. Akron has that elite run D but overall I think the Utah St. D is better anyway. Keaton hasn't played well for a few years compared to his earlier career so actually if the other guy plays Utah St. might be in better shape so that is a wild card. Apparently and I am quoting another source finishing strong in the season is a contrary indicator to performance in a bowl game. I like your rationale but the numbers don't support it. Is it something that will regress to mean or is there a factor that explains I don't know. The line is 7.5 now and has gone up. I recognize sometimes you like that to fade the steam of games so you may be even more encouraged to be on Akron but that is something I don't agree with especially on college football games. I only like your theory there on extreme public betting events which are some NFL games and college games. Honestly don't like it for a meaningless bowl game which by the way I also think both teams are aware this is so I say crapshoot to who is more motivated.
Props for writing in before the game starts Skeeter. Respect. We have a difference of opinion and that's all but the point-spread is the great equalizer in all of this. Apparently the oddsmakers agree with you that it's not a fair fight. We shall find out soon enough. Happy Holidays.
Dec 21, 2015 14:40:01
bulls over hilltoppers, I don't think so! Another sherwood special, Mr. Contrary!...congrats on being UP for the year!
Dec 18, 2015 17:57:53
I understand it is tough to be on a downturn, however it is below you to make up teams to play, I mean come on Incarnate Word. That was the best you could come up with? I feel a very nice night coming our way. Thanks for all of the hard work you do for the rest of us. Happy Holidays!
Ha ha...Thanks Scully. Happy Holidays to you too,
Dec 18, 2015 14:51:33
Hey Sherwood...I saw a clip on TV last night featuring Steph Curry saying that the Warriors were a little disenchanted with Milwaukee's reaction to their recent win over his team. The spread in the rematch tonight is 18 to the Warriors. How much does emotion factor into setting a line like that, in your opinion?
Dave, I saw the same thing and I know for sure that the Warriors want to stick it to the Bucks. There are even T-shirts going around in Milwaukee that say "24-1". I would lay the points so fast, it's not even funny. 18½. Milwaukee acted like a bunch of goons in their win over GS and they are getting paid back tonight.
Dec 17, 2015 12:36:05
You can't be 93 games under .500 and still be in the black unless you are real good at finding value wagers. Most years Sherwood has been a lot closer to .500 and when he is, the profits follow. Looking forward to 2016!
Thank you Joel
Dec 15, 2015 22:24:37
This man is the best handicapper on the planet, I will not allow anyone to speak ill of this man, I have learned so much from him and today I am a trillion times better thanks to his tutelage. The NFL is nearly impossible to predict, but his Betfair methodologies on the NBA and Horse Racing and his knowledge of hockey is so comprehensive that 99% of the betting world I guarantee would learn copious amounts of information from him. If you are going to troll my friend's page, please keep it to yourself and find someone who you think is better...I guarantee you, you won't.
Thanks you Keith.
Dec 15, 2015 20:32:05
Hey sherman, luv to read your insights - I read them every day! but i am from canada where i have to play parlays. i understand the value you are chasing, but i have been doing pretty good (selectively, lately) betting against you - 4 days & counting (hopefully 5 as i bet against the canucks tonight). this is not meant to bash you as i luv the free service you supply. please keep up the good work as i find your insight excellent!! i have been following this site since randall was here & i use your info to supplement my own handicapping. it would be nice if you were to offer a daily 2 game parlay, thus avoiding the value picks we see daily. just my opinion but please keep the information coming!!!
fenway freak
Thanks Fenway but you are not forced to play parlays (I assume you are talking about pro-line), you choose to play pro-line instead on betting online. That's a big mistake because the same parlays you are hitting on pro-line pay much more at a traditional on-line sportsbook. There is no excuse whatsoever for folks to be playing pro-line when there are better options. Again, when the government is the house, you have no shot whatsoever but I do appreciate the kind words.
Dec 15, 2015 20:26:44
Your prediction of the NY Rangers being a .500 club at best will be as bad as your prediction on the Texas Rangers.
That's the best you can do Don? Really?
Dec 15, 2015 15:01:23
Vinnie, no way is sherwood the worst handicapper on the planet. The NFL is probably the hardest sports to figure out, the fact that teams only play once a week doesn't help either. Bad bounces happen, penalties, injuries, they are impossible to predict. Over the course of the season, this website has won me more games than it has lost. Who could have predicted that the Bengals and the Broncos both would lose? This week if Carolina loses, it wouldn't be a surprise. Any team can win at anytime, that is what makes it so hard. Keep plugging away Sherwood, things will turn around. thanks for all of your plays each day.
Thank you Tim.
Dec 15, 2015 10:34:01
Hands down..u r the worst NFL capper that exists on this planet..all your logics sound good but u can't seem to pick the right team..
Well Cousin Vinnie, it's not an easy sport to handicap. I'm not making excuses for this year but let me just say that I have a winning NFL record in eight of the last 11 years. To expect to beat this sport every year is unreasonable. This is a "what have you done for me lately" business so I understand your sentiments. All I can do is apply the same theories that have been working for years and let the chips fall where they may. Hands down, you have the worst understanding of this on the planet.
Dec 13, 2015 22:16:01
Shout out to Joel, good message, you will find that Sherwood gets a little stubborn now and then, and won't admit he is wrong. We should start a thread, he continually hates Henrik Lundquist, the guy is terrible etc, laugh my ass off when he starts this!. I personally enjoy it and like I say all the time, it is entertaining. Plus despite these few hiccups, which I enjoy, the guy usually knows what he talks about.
Tom, I have not said a negative thing about Queen Henrik all year. Last year, I did but not this year...yet.
Dec 12, 2015 12:11:49
I don't have a betting interest in game but honestly don't like the first paragraph of your write up on Bills game for 2 reasons. Anytime there are blocked punt TD, return TD or Interception return TD it will likely lead to the team giving up those scores outgaining the team scoring the points. When all 3 occur in the same game the difference is even more pronounced. I'm sure NE still would have outgained them by a mile but it is a pretty clear issue to consider. Secondly, not sure I agree Philly will be in a letdown spot here at all. In fact I pretty strongly disagree with it. They were a team with division expectations and although they don't have the record expected, they are in a tie for the division lead and a playoff spot is quite achievable. Buffalo is actually favoured in this game and although I like their team they haven't played well. This should be a good game and I actually hope the Bills win but I don't see any value on them in Philadelphia at this price.
Duly noted Skeeter. Philly is indeed in contention but that's by default. They are garbage. They were garbage last week and they've been garbage all year. If they don't have a letdown, they are still the inferior team here by a mile. If they do have a letdown, they'll likely lose by 4 TD's or something like that. Thanks for writing and I especially like that you checked in BEFORE the game started.
Dec 12, 2015 09:09:24
Sherwood A brilliant pick with the Charlotte Hornets on the road over Memphis Friday night. The way you broke it down it just made sense and after a lot of research I hit it big on the ML and PS. My daughter's university tuition thanks you once again! I beg you for more NBA picks on a regular basis. Keep up the great work sir!
Thank you Larry. NBA has always been a tough sport for me and that's why I stopped playing it regularly. However, over the past two years I have been paying very close attention to it and studying different approaches than the one's I was using before. I was even making "mock" wagers with moderate success (it's easy to bet with fake money). In any case, I'm more confident now and trust myself to come up with more winners than losers. You will therefore see more plays but they will be very selective. Thanks for writing and I'm so glad you were able to cash in on that game.
Dec 8, 2015 21:03:13
You are 1-7 going on 1-8 in games involving the Hurricanes the past 30 days. I have had runs like this in the past where I just can't pick a certain teams' games correct. It is just so incredibly frustrating, especially when it is sometimes for and sometimes against the same club. Will you continue to play Canes games, or start to ignore them on the schedule?
I will not ignore them Joel, the thinking that a team has your number is a little absurd if you really think about it. My model is playing value and as much as I hate to pull the trigger on the 'Canes, there is too much value not too. Hopefully, they'll give Eddie Lack a chance to start a bunch of games in a row and get this thing headed in the right direction. As long as the 'Canes remain under-priced, you will see them on my slate often. Best of luck Joel.
Dec 6, 2015 17:39:21 reports everyone on Chicago Black Hawks. The game just started so I have no idea of the outcome. But, Sherwood, thank you so much for your insights, as usual. Very impressive and although I may not take the other side, I avoided this game. Great stuff, always enjoy your articles, and it is FREE! Thank you
Nov 28, 2015 17:52:46
Sherwood... Youre an idiot... bahhhh Just kidding. Thanks for the back to back anti Rangers bets yesterday and today. I played Philly yesterday as well and hit... They seem to hold a tonne of value at this point in the season, especially since they have started to limit the GA in the past couple of weeks. I love the fade views on your NHL picks, they have helped me out a lot over the past season and a half. Keep up the great work, and please don't get discouraged by all of the mail you get regarding your knowledge on sportswagers. ...just maybe tidy up some of the language on twitter and lay of the zebras... They are what they are, and they always have been that way. Thanks again my friend!
Thanks Dingle, appreciate the feedback and I will lay off the twitter comments because you are right on the money with your assessment. It is what it is and always will be. Thanks for writing.
Nov 28, 2015 09:59:31
The Canes were the right side last night, but once again inept play in the crease cost us our ticket. More frustrating was being against Buffalo immediately on the heels of backing them for consecutive losses. I find that when I switch after backing a side for multiple losses, that is usually when they find a way to win.
When Carolina loses it does not surprise me. They are always a risk because their goaltending is so bad. That said, they are a solid team that will continue to haver value when offered a price and therefore I will continue to play them.
Nov 26, 2015 09:35:04
Sherwood : Let me guess that 80 + % of your bets would be single bets & very few parlays & if a parlay a 2 teamer: to me that would be the best way to look & bet for Value: Looking forward to your return : Many thanks for your effort: Great night last night aye! Your Silent Follower: Mr. B.
Mr. W. Baxter
You are right Mr. B in that 80% + of my wagers are flat bets. However, a two-team, three-team or any number of teams parlay all have great value as long as they are money line parlays. For instance, a two-team parlay using the point-spread has no value and you can expect to lose money by playing them over time. The same holds true for any point-spread parlays whether it's 2, 3, 4 or 6 team parlays. However, a money-line parlay, no matter how many teams you use, offers up the true value of hitting it and if you are playing undervalued teams, that parlay will actually be paying more than it should be. In general, each wager has a 50% or ½ probability of winning. If we are trying to determine the probability of hitting a parlay using the point-spread, we just multiply ½ by the number of bets we are making. The probability of hitting a two team parlay is ½ by ½ = ¼. We will win one parlay out of four. Another way to express this is to say that the fair odds are 3-1. A normal payout for a two team parlay is 13-5. Here is how the house edge is calculated: Expectation = [1/4 x (+13)] + [3/4 x (-5)]= -2/4= -0.5. Therefore the house edge is 10%. That’s something that will cost you money over the long haul. The more teams you bet in a parlay, the bigger the house edge gets. However, a two-team parlay using money line underdogs pays out the true odds plus…..Take two teams at +120 for instance for let’s say $50. You win the first game and it pays $60, add the $50 original bet and therefore you would have 60 +50 = a $110 bet onto team #2 at +120. That wins and pays $132.00. Therefore 132 +110 = 242.00 would be the payout for your 2-team parlay minus the $50 original wager. 242-50 =192. Your two team money line parlay would profit $192.00. If you lose 3 of them and win 1, you will therefore show a profit of 42.00 whereas on a point-spread parlay you would show a net loss with the same results. The point is Mr. B, never bet point-spread parlays and always bet money line parlays. In answering your question, I bet two and three game parlays frequently but they are always on money line games. Not sure if this makes any sense but it doesn't have to. Please trust me when I say to NEVER bet point-spread parlays and always bet MONEY line Parlays on underdogs. Thanks as always Mr. B.
Nov 25, 2015 22:00:40
Sherwood, you lying S.O.B., we waited all morning Sunday for your CFL picks and it ended up for not. Okay, your off the hook this week. EDMONTON in a LANDSLIDE! FREE MONEY would love for Ottawa to beat the Esks but not going to be close. Cheers
Edmonton in a landslide it is. Your pick is duly noted Tom and now on record. Best of luck.
Nov 25, 2015 13:21:46
Hey Sherwood, I'm curious to know what your stance is on the flyers as a team this season. Not just today but an overall level, is this team worthy of a value pick from time to time. I have a such a hard time reading this team, they don't come across as a rebuilding team and they have some good key players. Weak goaltending and offensively challenged on most nights, but they do compete. Just curious especially playing in the Barclays centre for the first time im trying to convince myself there's value there tonight. Thanks.
Eric: I was so damn close to playing the Flyers today and probably would have if the Islanders were coming off a couple of wins. My take on the Flyers is similar to yours. Some good forwards and a definite threat to score goals. My problem with them is on defense, where by the third period, they are usually running around in their own end. I also prefer Neuvirth to Mason and Mason is confirmed for tonight. That said, the price is juicy enough to make this a worthwhile wager because one has to give the Flyers a chance here. I may have missed the boat on this one but I did look at it trying to find a strong enough reason to back Philly. It was hard to do other than the fact that they have some good forwards. Is there value tonight? Probably so but I preferred the others. If you like them, play them, as I never try and talk someone out of a wager. Best of luck!
Nov 23, 2015 19:16:42
Hey Sherwood, It seems like you and I are the only one's who like the Pats tonight. After seeing all the public money come in on the Bills I was going to lay off. That is until I saw and read your column. Awesome as always....
Thanks David.
Nov 23, 2015 16:18:41
You're certainly a good handicapper and I love the in depth analysis. However these NCAAB picks are unreal. They seem too good to be true! Are you psychic? Talk about nailing it every time.
Ha ha...Thanks sure has been a great start so I'll ride it for as long as it lasts.
Nov 21, 2015 06:13:31
I've been a fan of you and sportswagers for a very long time, referred here by Randall the Handle. Win or lose, you have done the research that I don't have time to do every day. To that I salute you and thank you! I'm just a casual bettor, but do bet mostly for entertainment purposes. Don't get me wrong, I like winning more than losing lol.. Speaking of winning, your warming up real nice lately! Clean sweep last night which I followed and did 4 game parlay with the 3 hockey and the ncaa bb game.. Thanks again just thought I'd post for once..cheers and keep it going no matter what.
Jeff: Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Your message of acknowledgement and thanks made my day and keeps me highly motivated daily. Best of luck, always...
Nov 21, 2015 01:50:52
Nice sweep tonight brotha - you've deserved better of late!
Hey Feddz, thanks for the message. Truly.
Nov 21, 2015 00:31:36
Great job my friend, I really hesitated on MTL and CBJ. Bobrovsky looked back to his old self, can't believe that game was that easy. That line climbed to around -175 around puck drop. Something seemed off there but in our favour anyway. Montreal had ridiculous value, thanks for the great picks. I also cashed in on Calgary.
Columbus was also down two regular defensemen so they were playing with just four D-men the entire game. That had influence on line as well. The score was a bit flattering to the Jackets as well Eric, as they were outshot badly but Pekka Rinne allowed three goals on 12 shots and the Preds were in a deep hole early. Anyway, the price was right and it was a good night all around. Glad you cashed too! Gotta stick with it and grind away. Thanks for writing.
Nov 20, 2015 22:07:08
Are you going to post anything on CFL this weekend?
Tom: I will have CFL East and West finals posted on Sunday morning.
Nov 20, 2015 14:03:55
Just a couple of things I want you to touch bases on. The preds opened as a -130 and recently spiked to -165.. Does that raise any flags or is there any particular reason you can think of for that big of a rise?.. As well, the islanders being favoured here by this much scares me, I find this very similar to th Sharks @ islanders game earlier in the season where NYI was a -155, and you were all over it because of the fact the Sharks were on fire and that line made no sense. With price confirmed I imagined this line be close to even but again I'm probably wrong, just curious if you see the same things here.
When i saw Nashville jump to that price, I looked for a reason as to why and I found it. Initially, it was projected that Pekka Rinne was going to get the night off so backup Carter Hutton was projected to start. When Rinne was announced the line shot up. Rinne is considered elite but you know my position on him. I'm thrilled he is in net. As for the Habs, I don't think line is off. Islanders are still 8-2-1 at home and have won 2 straight while Price may be rusty and Montreal has dropped three of four. Montreal is also playing back-to-backs. Market doesn't like back-to-backs. Good observations Eric that I was aware of before posing and so I took extra time to look into it. BEST OF LUCK!
Nov 19, 2015 18:41:38
I noticed on the webinar you did for basketball you mentioning when a line looked off for example the Sacramento Kings vs Atlanta Hawks. Could you tell us what to look for so we can spot lines that are off? Thank you.
That's a good question and an interesting one too. A line is off or curious when it looks too easy. Atlanta was just a -3 point fav at home against Sacramento and to me that line looked short. Anyone that follows this sport would likely think the same thing. Sac is an average squad that is weak on road team while Atl was an East Power last season. When a line looks short, I call that "off". We can apply that same theory in the NFL almost weekly, as the Raiders are a -1 point favorite in Detroit. That looks like a curious line, which suggests that the Lions are a "live" dog.
Nov 19, 2015 00:39:20
Sherwood: Thanks for all your great work, as usual following you every day. Your insight and picks to. Looking for value is paying off for me: Mr. B
Mr, W, Baxter
You're welcome Mr. B. Glad to hear you are doing well. Always good to hear from you and thanks so much for taking the time to write from time to time. Stay in touch.
Nov 17, 2015 23:57:54
Rough NFL and NHL season to date. Wonder if Frank is doing any better? Write ups are nice to read but have you been thinking of going strictly exchange. Supposedly it's working better for you. But that way we can't really see how your doing. Maybe you'll enjoy less hate mail.
Rough? Even after losing 8 straight, I'm still plus in the NHL. We are six weeks into the season. NFL? Perhaps a little rough but not disastrous and there is a long way to go. I end up in the black every year. I have been ending in the black every year for 12 years straight so while the exchange has been good, traditional betting helps with the bottom line every year. I don't get hate mail Steve, I get mail from trolls with miserable lives that have nothing better to do and frankly, they can write me all they want and it bothers me not. I honestly couldn't care less. So, we'll continue to grind it out every day and look for value in the numbers and hope for the best. At the end of this year, I will be in the black again (up 49 units as of right now) just like I am every year.
Nov 17, 2015 14:25:47
Sherwood - I see your note above about the LA Kings being -0.5 +110 at Bet365 where I wager, but I cannot find that wager on the site - only -1.5 +190 for the game. They don't seem to offer a wager for anything less than a goal...what am I missing?
Dave: go to BET365 and then to hockey then to 3 way. In the 3 way section on the far right under money line you will see L.A. +105 right now. That is the same as -½ because that money line is in regulation only. If the game ties in regulation, it is a loss. At some places they call it 3-way betting. This should help.
Nov 16, 2015 18:56:05
Big canucks party Last night in Montreal au the resto where prise is part owner you can bet hausse minus the 1.5 reg easy$$$
Ll cool jp
Yep, big party only Montreal didn't show up until the 3rd period.
Nov 14, 2015 11:30:20
I'm not sure if you watched the entire Sharks/Wings game last night, but your perception on that game is way off. The Red Wings played terrible, those shots on net do not tell you they were the better team, they rarely had a high quality scoring chance and when they did they shot it right at Jones. The Sharks were sound defensively, all over the red wings when attacking. The Sharks battled for every puck, and played a solid D game. Offensively, yeah they were brutal but they forced several turnovers which almost always resulted in a good scoring chance. Detroit may have outplayed them on an overall level, but the Sharks were protecting a lead the final 2 periods, and did just that. Detroit only had what, 6 or 7 shots in the 3rd? For being down 2, and "dominating", don't you think they'd had more chances than that?
I have had this argument many times in the past Eric. Sometimes two people watching the same game see it completely differently. I respect your perception of what you saw but what I saw was a Detroit team that had the puck the entire game while San Jose was chasing them. In the end, it does not matter because San Jose won and the final score is what gets the money.
Nov 13, 2015 13:13:16
Great podcast Sherwood, you should do your own each day or weekly.
Thanks man. I appreciate that very much.
Nov 12, 2015 11:51:57
Sherwood would you have played Edmonton +160 last night if it were the only number available to you... or would you have passed?
it's easy for me to say now but yes and many people know that I'll play lower money lines if I miss the best number but will not play a bad point spread number.
Nov 11, 2015 06:45:09
I guess we should have been on the Leafs and Sabres again last night. From now on, I'll keep my suggestions to myself and let you make the calls.
Ha ha Joel. I'm mad at myself for not playing at least one of them last night but they'll be more opportunities to play them, as well as a bunch of other undervalued squads. Cool message though. I got a chuckle out of it this morning. Onto tonight.
Nov 10, 2015 22:54:42
Hey..Sherwood..just a quick note to say thanks ... I got it now...sorry i was a bit slow off the mark... You are very generous rare in this business. I feel I should offer you % or fee for your valuable knowledge?..i made a killing last night thx to you.. Just wanted you to know it was very appreciated and needed... thx again for helping launch me on my new career.. best dan As you know sick value on Buff tonight +215 my obj. line Buff -120 ~15% value.. Best dan
Dan: Thanks for the kind gesture but it is not necessary. I"m happy to see folks win money. I feel fortunate to be able to do what I do for a living and always like to help out others to get an edge or make a few extra bucks. Continued success Dan. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Nov 8, 2015 11:09:43
I really agree with your analysis of the Indy/Den game but I'll take the points offered instead of straight up. I'm also expecting a big game from the Jets D in a walkover over the Jags......Bortles will try to make things happen and inevitably turn it over (perhaps 2+ times). Fond of Philly also, but haven't played it yet. Best of luck and thanks for your dedication to this site again.
You're welcome Magus. I enjoy doing it very much. The points on Indy looked like good insurance after that comeback but in thew end, the ML won out. So did the points. The Jets, on the other hand.......well, you might have been a week early on them. This is the week that the Jets are playable. Write up forthcoming.
Nov 7, 2015 11:43:28
Love your work, but taking the Leafs and Sabres every night (and day) doesn't seem like a recipe for success.
We shall see Joel. I think it is a recipe for success because both are undervalued, especially Buffalo. Results don't always tell the true story of how a team is playing. We see it in every sport every year and Buffalo is playing well and so are the Leafs.
Nov 5, 2015 13:40:48
Nice season so far in hockey Sherwood. The only team I stayed away from as a dog is the leafs. Just cant lay money on them lol.
Nov 4, 2015 18:53:53
Hey there Sherwood. Appreciate the time you take to offer nightly selections. Am hoping you will offer up NBA selections as the season progresses. Do you network with other handicappers (particularly Randall the Handle) to come up with your selections? Keep up the good work.
Thanks David....Unfortunately, there will be very few NBA selections this year because it's a sport I have never been able to beat and I'm not about to try again. It's just not worth the risk for me. I will, however, have college basketball selections all season. As far as "networking", I correspond with some sharp and respected people in the handicapping business such as Randall, whom I speak to almost daily. There are many others I follow and correspond with on Twitter to gather the best and most info I can on all sports. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Nov 4, 2015 11:03:47
Thank you for saying so. Boy, was that a rough couple of months that had me lying awake at night on occasion but in hindsight, it was a good lesson to stick with it.
Nov 2, 2015 09:18:31
Congrats on the World Series prediction Sherwood. You nailed it, among four out of five other series picks. Very glad I wagered on the Royals thanks to your analysis which was right on the money. My first inclination was to bet the Mets with that great starting pitching they had but your breakdown changed my mind. Great pick on the Sabres last night too. It's fucking amazing to me that people try and beat you down when things aren't going so well. Idiots. As far as I'm concerned, you are gracious, generous and provide a great service for beginners or experienced bettors that have an open mind and want to learn something. It is not said enough but THANK YOU again Sherwood.
Pat from Kitchener
Thanks Pat. Your message made my day and I appreciate the time you took to write it. Those bashing fools do not phase me in the least. Eventually they all go away like all cockroaches.
Nov 1, 2015 16:16:02
I appreciated your write-up on the Bears/Vikes game today. Took a chance on the Bears, not my usual habit. Chastised myself for not giving Cutler enough credit when he threw the ball up to Jeffery in the end zone before the half. Cheered you when the Bears were up by 7 late in the fourth...then taught the lesson once again, why I shun the Bears in tight games. Let's hope no late Hallowe'en trick by Manning tonight. Thanks for your analysis, anyways...
So true Dave....The Vikes are an awfully lucky team. They pulled another rabbit out of their hat in this one. As for the Packers, they just plainly got beat up.
Oct 31, 2015 13:01:55
Being a long time fan of the Flames, I read your analysis of tonight's game between the Flames and Oilers and I could not agree more. While I love the Flames and will be proudly wearing my red jersey at the game, I won't mention to my buddies that I bet Edmonton, Hey, mama needs a new pair of shoes!
Ha ha....I can relate Tom. I sometimes go to Blue Jays games and my partner will not go with me if I bet the other team. So I tell her I bet the Blue Jays and root for them, secretly rooting for the other side. Go Oilers! Mama needs a new pair of shoes!
Oct 30, 2015 12:49:16
Nice hit on Edmonton last night
Thanks man. Nice comeback win and very entertaining game
Oct 27, 2015 21:34:04
Nice pick on the Bruins !
LL Cool JP
Thanks LL Cool. It was a good situational play that worked out perfectly.
Oct 23, 2015 19:14:28
Sherwood. You are an entertaining read. But I gotta ask..where do you pull some of this info from? Your 1st sentence is "Detroit's defense is actually pretty good. LOL. By what metric? They are a one win team that ranks 27th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. Keep up the entertaining columns, but please back up these takes with data
Thank you Mike. Your point is a valid one and I will be more aware of it by backing up statements with data as you suggested. I appreciate the time you took to write.
Oct 23, 2015 08:38:11
Sherwood: I have been a fan of since 1998 or so and continue to tune into the site on a daily basis. I must say though that I was blown away by your tutorial that you recently posted. Thank you for posting the NFL/NCAA webinar on the sportswagers site! Since I watched your webinar, I have had great profits wagering in the style you presented. I have applied the method when wagering on PINNACLE since I don\'t have a BETFAIR account. I have applied the method (for lack of a better word as you have stated) successfully to select NHL games through intermission bets and to select NBA preseason games during the end of quarters. Supposedly, PINNACLE has stated that there will be continuous NBA betting with the regular season so I hope it will be a similar scheme as BETFAIR. I can see that they key in all of this is to successfully determine evenly matched games that will flip flop in scores throughout the time period and hit the underdog lines to get out of liability. I do have a few questions though... 1. BETFARE seems to be \"unfair\" in how they apply commissions in general and on winning players. How do you feel about the commissions being charged? Since you pointed out that $200 is about a unit and a half for you that likely means that you are likely working with a $13333 bankroll or so. This means your likely are not getting \"taxed\" that heavily yet since your winnings don\'t exceed $200000. 2. When you get out of a liability for a particular matchup, do you try to then slowly split action between the games if possible or do you try to put all stake on one game, leave the other game at $0 liability, and hope for the the one game to come through and have zero loss if the other game wins? Thanks for taking the time to read this message and I would love to see another webinar when the NBA season starts with you applying this \"method\" to two or more NBA games at the same time. Keep up the good work Sherwood!
Thanks very much Jason. The commission rates applied by Betfair are fine. You usually pay 5-10% at traditional books and Betfair's rate on all winning bets is 6% or 7%. They increase if you win big but you should only hope to get in that range. About a half of 1% of their users are in that high commission rate. As soon as I get out of a liability, I continue with that game and any others that I'm playing or following. Once you get out of a liability, the profit potential keeps increasing so it would be foolish to just leave it and hope your team wins. That's on Betfair and does not apply to NHL or traditional books that close the live betting at all times except for when the play stops or during commercials. I keep switching back and forth on the dog when the lead changes until late in the game, where I make a decision to cash out or let it all ride on one team. For instance, If I'm at 250 on one team and 0 on the other, I may cash out at that point for 125 each side. I may buy back 50 on one side and leave 200 on the other so I walk away with something. Jason, I will also be running some NBA webinars early in the year and I will record and post them once I do. Thanks for the support over the years and best of luck with the "live betting". It definitely works better on BETFAIR because they are always live while traditional books are only live during commercial breaks and halftime. Thanks again for taking the time to write. I love hearing about the success. Keep in touch
Oct 19, 2015 16:38:51
Sadly, I think you might be right about the Royals. It has been a great run by the Jays, but at the end of the day the Royals are the more complete club and they are in more capable hands. I think brooms might be in order for the Jays.
Oct 18, 2015 04:41:27
You had your crystal ball out yesterday. Excellent work Sherwood. 1 close game away from an 8-0 day. (Slow clap from the gallery). I love waking up to cash in my account while vacationing in Europe :)
Clever Bowen. Love it. Thanks for taking the time to write and enjoy the rest of your vacation in beautiful Europe.
Oct 17, 2015 13:54:47
The Sharks line vs. the Islanders is intriguing but Stalock was announced to be the goalie for the Sharks not Jones is my understanding. I think the Isles are a deserving favourite of -120 or so if Jones were in goal and Couture was healthy. It just becomes more of a question whether Stalock and the injury are worth 5% or more to hurt to their chances to win. I don't know Stalock well at all so anyone's opinion welcome for me. I think these are the likely reasons for the odds in this game. Given that I don't think the linesmakers are doing anything special in this game so I'm not sure you've gone enough to think that the oddsmakers just love the Islanders and are welcoming Sharks money. If you have an angle on Stalock or the Couture injury either for or against the Sharks I think I would go with that to find value. Good luck today!
Stalock was named the starter long after the lines came out although it was presumed that Jones would get a day off. The line is still out of whack in my opinion because under normal circumstances the Islanders would be -125. Books do not want Islander money is my position. Best of luck Skeeter
Oct 16, 2015 22:49:22
Ugh........what a horrendous backdoor cover by the Bluebombers. The CFL is perhaps the most frustrating league to bet on. Horrible coaching, fluke plays, quick late scoring......I'd rather have the 20 minutes of commercials and kneel-downs in the NFL any day over such nonsense. It is what it is though.....Sunday will be better!
Such an ugly loss that should've never happened and hard to believe it did.
Oct 16, 2015 19:00:03
Sherwood- Enjoy reading your write-ups but wanted to comment on your Browns-Broncos analysis. While, you may well win this bet, I believe you are not being fair ot the Broncos. Yes, they barely covered 4 out of their 5 games with an atrocious offense due to the aging Manning and inept Kubiak but you fail to recognize how strong their defense is. The Broncos have one of the (if not the best) defense in the NFL with an astounding secondary and the two best pass rushers in the game. Meanwhile, Josh McCown is not a top NFL qb as you suggested in your write-up. He had a good game last week against a terrible Baltimore defense that made him look like Dan Marino. Additionally, the Browns are coming off a very emotional OT victory against a division rival and should face a stout defense that will limit their ability to move the ball. My comments are meant to dissuade you from your play as everyone has their own read and feel on a game but just to clarify some misconceptions I noticed in your post. BOL this week.
Dan: I've been doing this website for a long time and this might actually be the first time that I have received a comment of this nature. It's smart, it's constructive and it's a different perspective than my own. It also arrived before game time. You have made a valid argument for the Broncos. However, from where I sit, I still find the Broncos to be very overvalued. I don't believe they are close to being elite and even their very good defense can't expect to be on the field all game and thrive. We shall see what happens but more importantly, I really appreciate the time you took to write and wish you the best of luck as well. Your comments are duly noted. Sherwood
Oct 15, 2015 08:32:41
Sherwood, thanks for the MLB previews on games you are not betting. They both really helped me make a decision last night in my choices. I'm not a big bettor but I enjoy betting and watching the games, especially playoffs and the challenge of picking a winner. The previews and analysis you provide are always insightful and well thought out and above all, greatly appreciated. Thanks for your site and for keeping it free.
You're welcome Steve. Thanks for taking the time to write. Your message made my day. Best of luck friend.
Oct 13, 2015 22:47:14
Hi sherwood! First and foremost, thank You for all the the great thorough analysis every day. I hold ur picks in high regards. But damn Big man. I am off the Carolina hurricanes and LA Kings bandwagon. They burned You every F... Night. I mean why You keep rolling with the hurricanes and the kings? I am out Jordan
Thanks Jordan. I took the Kings in their home opener and they lost to the Sharks. I have not played them since. In other words, I'm not "rolling" with the Kings. WTF happened to that team? They looked awful again last night, which was probably a missed opportunity for us. As for the 'Canes, well, I still think they're a decent club. They'll get their wins as long as they stick with Eddie Lack in goal. If the price and situation is right, I'll keep playing them because I honestly trust they'll be very competitive all season with Lack in net. The advanced stats say so.
Oct 12, 2015 11:50:08
I agree with your write up on Game 4 of the Royals-Astros pick today, but you need to alter your point on Keuchel starting both of the games the Astros have won. McHugh started game 1.
The Law
Thanks Law. I have corrected that error and I thank you for taking the time to write and give me the heads up on it. Best of luck.
Oct 10, 2015 19:08:27
Two questions. Do you go into an NFL week with an eye on certain games that you think will be likely to be good in-game Betfair plays (i.e. high over/under,lots of offense)? Also what's the best live score site? Always seem to be lags on even lags when following a video stream online.Can tell because the odds move then there\'s a big play after. Haven\'t hit it big yet on inplay but was in line to have a huge cash out on Thursday before the fumble. Cheers, Derek
Yes Derek, I usually have my eye on some games but I keep an open mind because as you know, anything can happen in a game. After the games start, I keep my eye on anything that looks like it could be one of those back-and-forth shootouts. As for a live score site...I have found to be right up to the second with no lag time...
Oct 10, 2015 12:02:13
Seems to be some easy money in NHL tonite, Montreal -110 and Ottawa -130. Habs own Bruins and Boston is in rebuild, as far as the Leafs are concerned, well, enough said,
I don't know if there is such a thing as easy money. Indeed they both look good but Toronto has only been outshot in two periods this year and might not be as bad as advertised. Montreal has owned Boston and Boston was pasted on Thursday so the Habs seem like the obvious play. Thing is Tom, the entire betting world are on both Ott and Mon and that isn't usually a good sign. I'm not saying you are wrong but I'm personally staying away from both those games. GOOD LUCK!
Oct 9, 2015 18:21:45
Brilliant work with the Rangers. Tough to go against the Jays, but the value was all on Texas and you have to go with that. Oh, and I see you are back in the black for the month and year. And all the naysayers have gone back into hiding, presumably a little bit lighter in their wallets.
I honestly don't think those people fade me like they say they do. They are just miserable folks that troll the internet wishing they had money to bet with. I'm sure some fade me from time to time but those people read the writeups and make a decision and say nothing about it. Anyway, thanks Joel, I just played the value and it worked out this time.
Oct 8, 2015 14:55:43
As a Sabres seasons ticket holder I can tell you that you are going to be disappointed by the crowd if you are expecting the First Niagara Center to be the loudest building in the league. Sabres fans are taking a wait-and-see approach to the season and there are plenty of tickets still available on the secondary markets. You might be right on the selection, but I doubt the crowd will have anything to do with it.
Chris G.
Oh, well thanks very much for taking the time to write in Chris. As a season ticket holder, you would have a better sense of what's happening than I would. I assumed their was a ton of excitement and anticipation in Buffalo but you cleared that misconception up. Enjoy the game. GO SABRES!
Oct 8, 2015 13:44:16
Because I have been reading your website for years, I will bet single game hockey regularly for the first time this year. How do you feel about Boston, they are a popular public pick and are usually overpriced and I think they will be terrible this year. I'm planning to attack them often starting tonight.
We'll see Pete. I don't think Boston will be terrible, that's for sure, however, I do agree that the Jets are a live dog here. Best of luck
Oct 7, 2015 19:24:58
I am not sure I understand the minus half a goal. I am currently looking at bet365 three way an I would like to take Clgy minus a half. I see the line is minus 1 plus 215 and the money line is plus 120. The money line tie is plus 250. How do I get to minus half a puck?
Bob, the money line IS minus a half puck. It's in REGULATION ONLY. Although it is not written -½ +120, that is precisely what it is. In other words, it's a regulation bet. Your team must win in regulation or the bet loses, therefore Calgary +120 would be exactly the same as Calgary -½ +120. If Calgary would have won in regulation, the bet gets paid off.
Oct 7, 2015 13:22:56
I see your hockey picks today have Calgary minus a half goal. What is the rationale for laying a half puck when there are no ties in hockey? If so how does one lay a half a puck on bet365?
a -½ puck bet in the NHL means that the wager will be decided after regulation. In other words, if it ends in a tie after regulation, the bet loses. At BET365, you have to go to three way lines. That means you are betting either a tie, or a side (two sides) to win in regulation, therefore there are 3 possible outcomes. Either the visitor wins in regulation, the home team wins in regulation, or it ends in a tie...thus, the 3-way lines. A three way line is essentially the same thing as a laying a half puck. Hope this helps Bob.
Oct 5, 2015 12:37:25
The Pirates analysis continues to be hysterical. They might get MadBummed with Arrieta but hey, they lose as often as you win. Yankees under Rangers under Keuchel and Quintana... (who ?) equal in talent The hits keep coming, just for the other team.
What did I say that was wrong? You're going to tell me that the Pirates defense is good? That Cervelli is good? That they can hit? Tell me what is good about them. Actually, I kinda hope that Pitt beats Chicago in one game so I can attack them in the next round and make more.....and about Quintana...He had a 3.36 ERA over 206 innings pitching half his games in a huge hitter's park. Here's what one of the top pitching scouts in baseball wrote about him today..after the season. It's amazing to me how unnoticed Quintana went all season. Every time I watched him, hitters could not square up on him. His skills have 'staff anchor' written all over them and his strikeout/GB% combination with fine control create an excellent foundation moving forward.....So, you want to talk about something you know nothing about, go ahead, knock yourself out.
Oct 2, 2015 23:18:22
The bad beats just keep on coming. Hamilton player, while getting to his feet, inadvertently kicks ball out of a teammates arms as he's on his way to a possible TD. I thought I had seen everything. And on the same night that Weaver recaptures the form that made him a star. Or were the Rangers just too hungover? It's frustrating to continually feel like you are on the right side of a wager, and not get the results.
At the end of the day Joel a loss is a loss. Over time it all equals out. That said, about 20 things had to go wrong for Hamilton to lose that game. A delay of game at the end that would have at least sent the game into OT. A 2-yard punt followed that delay that put Calgary in a position to kick that winning FG. Aside from the turnover you mentioned, a play as bizarre as any, Hamilton turned it over three times in the span of about 40 seconds in the second quarter. Bounce after bounce went against them. Frustrating for sure. Right pick, wrong result but excuses do nobody any good. We just have to stick with it, play the value and the results will follow. Lots of good results are coming our way.
Oct 2, 2015 13:20:06
Hi Sherwood, I log on here everyday and enjoy reading your game to game analysis. I can see where you're coming from with your Texas pick and it makes a lot of sense, but I have the Angels tonight and here's why. Texas has been playing playoff baseball for the entire second half pretty much and clinched a playoff spot last night. I believe they will give some of their key players a breather tonight (similar to the Jays yesterday). LA still has a chance to make the post-season and will do what they can to win the game. Best bet for tonight in my opinion is a parlay. Angles, Twins, Astros. All the best and keep up the great work!! R
Thanks R. I appreciate the support and kind words. Howewver, I have to disagree with you. You see, Texas has clinched a playoff spot. That means they could still be a WILD card team and play a one and done game. One win in this series clinches the AL West and the celebration will take place once that occurs, just like the Jays and Dodgers. Big game for both tonight so Texas will not rest anyone.
Sep 29, 2015 14:53:23
Colon is pitching tonight. You've made us a lot of money fading him at high prices. Any value in Philly at a +170 at home?
I would have to think there is value Cam. However, Colon has absolutely owned the Phillies. It's a game I struggled with in deciding what to do but in the end, I decided against it mainly because Philadelphia's pitcher is brutally awful.
Sep 29, 2015 01:05:57
Sherwood, I must send you my appreciation. After reading your write-up for the MNF game I cashed in huge. I was back and forth on that game all week. Then I saw your insight and followed. Needless to say it was a big win. Thank you very much. Once again just a awesome sports wagering site
Glad you cashed in David. Not often we get a rocking chair game like that but when we do, it sure is nice. Thanks for taking the time to write in. Now it's on to Week 4!
Sep 25, 2015 15:47:30
I loved your write up on the Giants as well. I calculated a score of 24 - 16 N.Y. and was thinking of taking them at -7 nice + money at one of your sponsors' alt. point spread lines. However, I chickened out and instead settled for -4 -105.
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian. I always like to hear about peeps cashing bets!
Sep 25, 2015 12:27:57
Bang on with your write up on the Giants last night. Eli was very effective, took care of The ball and played a great game. Fairy easy cover there. Nice hit on the Rays as well, I inplayed them when they were down 2-0 in the fifth, nice pay out there. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Eric. As you know,I'm not an X and O guy so I'm always looking for a psychological or other edge because of it. Some games you see things clearly and it works out.
Sep 25, 2015 11:43:22
Sherwood , do you have a favorite site for reliable NFL injury reports?
Mike: I'm not sure if there is such a thing. The reports are updated daily and even they are not accurate. It's been said before that management doesn't provide accurate one's either. I have a paid subscription to injury reports and then I go to ESPN or ROTOworld and get the same report. I have yet to find a reliable source because I honestly don't think one exists.
Sep 23, 2015 21:31:30
Not trying to get to far ahead of ourselves, but, any thoughts which playoff matchups would be most favourable for the Jays?
I don't think the Jays have match-up problems with anyone in the AL. The only team I see them having difficulty against is New York because Yanks pitching has the potential to be great.
Sep 22, 2015 21:53:07
I enjoy reading for information, do you recommend any other neutral sites?
Phil: I check out so many every day for info. Fangraphs is great for baseball and so is
Sep 21, 2015 10:44:50
Sherwood!!! Thanks for the picks on the great day on Saturday for CFB. I hit a sick sick 8 team parlay (I know it's -EV but I still play them for excitement value.) I had 4 of your picks, didn't take Bowling Green, And had Auburn, Texas, NIU and Vtech, Can't thank you enough for those and really glad you came out of the losing streak.
Very cool Pete. So glad you hit. I have no issues whatsoever with anyone "taking a shot" for a big payout. The entertainment value alone makes them so worthwhile. Anyway, I'm really happy to see anyone win money and I'm glad you wrote to let us know.
Sep 20, 2015 13:10:56
Hi, I was just curious about the buy-back on the Dallas game. With the line movement to +7, isn't Dallas money what the books are trying to get? They may have gotten too much Philly money and needed Dallas money late to cover their ass. There are a 1000 ways to try and outsmart the books so there's no real science to it but this is just my interpretation. I'm riding Philly as it was one of the only two games I played today (along with Winnipeg). As always, keep up the good work and best of luck!
Magus: The books don't take a position. The money that is bet after the initial line comes out dictates the line movement. In the case with Dallas/Philly, Philly is a -5 point favorite on Sunday morning. Money comes in all day on Philly, thus revealing that the market is hammering the Eagles. The oddsmakers have to increase the line in an attempt to "balance the books". So yes, the books are trying to get Dallas money indeed but the fact that the "public money" was on Philly is always a red flag for me, especially when it is late money. That is the reason I came off the Eagles. Good inquiry and sorry for not answering yesterday. Thanks, and best of luck to you too.
Sep 20, 2015 11:48:01
Hi Sherwood.. I'd be interested in seeing more discussion on using betfair for the NFL. The thursday night game between KC / Denver was more proof this is probably the best way to approach these games (you had a good writeup on this one, btw). I'm not sure how to describe the ending of that game.. it was worse than a coin flip, if ever there was such a thing.
NFL is crazy stuff when it comes to wagering and so I wholeheartedly agree with you about wagering on the exchange as being the best way to bet football (and basketball). Hopefully, you'll be able to attend my next one.
Sep 19, 2015 13:14:34
I'd love to see a live broadcast of your Sunday betfair routine wheeling back and forth between all of the games. I'm getting better, but still miss a few spots here and there.
Kale: I'm going to attempt to record the next one. I have attempted this before but they are long and seldom turn out in their entirety. Hopefully, you'll be able to attend the next one too.
Sep 18, 2015 12:41:38
What's your take on these 2 picks today? Athletics and Mets. Both seem to have significant value tonight, Oakland in Houston, who is returning from a nasty trip that not only damages their division hopes but their playoff hopes as well. Oakland piled on some runs in Chicago, pitching matchup favours Houston as well as minute maid park but the value just seems real to me. The pressure may be finally getting to the Astros. As for the mets, I see value as a home dawg playing their interstate rivals. Matz is no joke. Just curious as to what you may see here? Thanks.
Eric: I was close to playing the Mets. In fact, had I put up four plays today instead of three, my next one was going to be the Mets. However, Tanaka's filthy stuff and Matz's inexperience prevented me from stepping in. That doesn't mean the Mets are a bad play. I also looked at Oakland and completely understand your sentiments. When the chips were down when it mattered most in Texas, the Astronauts were awful. That said, it should come as no surprise, as they've been very average on the road all season. At home, Houston is a different team and Felix Doubront is a pitcher that has been passed over by every team in the league, not once but twice. Houston looked frazzled in Texas but I'm not crazy about fading them at home against Doubrount. Still, I have been wrong a lot this year. If you see value and trust they have a great shot, go for it. I do not like to dissuade anyone from making a bet that they think is a good one. Whatever you decide, I hope it works out. Best of luck man.
Sep 18, 2015 11:12:15
Hi Sherwood. Missed the NFL seminar but have seen the NBA back in Feb. My question is an obvious one but I'll ask. What can one do to play in U.S.? Live in play maybe? And is there any place to play horses in U.S. to bet against that you may know? Thanks for write ups. Looking forward to the NHL....Thanks
Sep 17, 2015 14:55:09
Why not just play live Betfair NFL rather than trying to grind out 53% against the spread?
Kale: You make a great point, as I am playing the NFL on Betfair every weekend. It is the way to go. I gave up betting NBA traditionally a couple of years ago and I'm leaning that way in the NFL more and more every week. Less risk, win more and free roll in a large % of games. Exchange betting is a game changer in my opinion.
Sep 17, 2015 13:58:13
Hi Sherwood. first time posting. You may know me as Puckhandler at TheRx. Any thoughts of the Winnipeg Jets at +4300 to win Stanley Cup.IMO, as a season ticket holder I firmly Believe we are a goalie away from being serious contenders. Jast season we won the season series against Chicago and split against Tampa Bay. We beat up on the weaker teams as good teams are supposed to going undefeated against Edmonton, Buffalo and Toronto. The Ducks were the worst matchup possible for the Jets in the playoffs as we went winless against them in regular season. We should be a good team to wager on the road at +odds as the Jets are not getting any respect as usual from the experts. Good luck this season
Hey Puck, thanks for writing in. I've always enjoyed reading your opinions. Anyway, I really haven't had a good look at the Jets this year yet but I liked what i saw last year for sure. Even in the playoffs, despite losing 4-0, they were in all those games with a late lead in Anaheim in the first two. The Jets are sound, tough and talented and at 43-1, they are absolutely under-priced. They have to get good goaltending because you can't win without it but that could come via a trade or perhaps one of their guys steps it up and has a great year. In the end, I think you've found so great value there. BEST of luck and see ya soon in the forums!
Sep 17, 2015 11:40:56
Great points LJ. You must be hitting close to 100% with your in depth analysis. Why no thoughts on the win totals win the season, you know, just started? Get back to me in December and i'll give you some solid NFL win totals. FYI-Pirates have a losing record against every team in the NL Central. If you honestly believe the Pirates are anything but average, you are delusional. Find anyone else with meaningful, detailed write-ups like the ones provided for free on this site. I think the Jays RL last night is a great bet-what do you think? Sherwood-keep plugging away. You have many more followers who appreciate all your picks and analysis than you have trolls who come out when things aren't going so well. Any NHL win totals coming this year?
I will definitely have a close look at NHL futures this year John and will post them well in advance if I find something worthwhile. Thanks for the support.
Sep 17, 2015 10:59:26
No wonder why your record is what it is. Keep talking yourself into thinking the PIrates are an average team. I love metric geeks like yourself thinking your smarter than the average Joe. Add another 7+ units to the red on your ONLY 2 season win totals.
Actually you're wrong on two fronts LJ. First, you're wrong about me thinking I'm smarter than the average Joe. In fact. I don't think I'm smarter than anyone. I'm just giving my opinions based on what I observe, just like you are doing by suggesting the Pirates are good based on their W/L record or what you have observed. The second thing you are wrong about is that I think the Pirates are an average team. That's not true either. I was downplaying it a bit. Truth is, I think they're about on par with teams like Oakland, Seattle, Milwaukee and Cincinnati and even that might be a little generous. In other words, I think they're putrid. Lastly, in regards to my 2 team total plays this year that will lose, that's fine too, as the past 13 years prior to this one, my season win totals in baseball have gone 22-6. I'm not including the year I wrote up the Marlins to win the World Series at 100-1. Proof of that can be found in this old thread I located from the Rx:
Sep 16, 2015 14:03:33
Hey, I have been following you for years and would just like to thank you for all your time and effort. On another note, I was wondering what your opinion (if any) is on the weekly fantasy sites like DraftKings.
Derrick...You're very welcome and I do appreciate the support. As for Fantasy games, I've been playing DFS for about 8 months now and find it to be very enjoyable. I like that you can win a lot for a small entry fee or even nice secondary prizes if you don't finish first. You can buy in for a couple of bucks and even if you never win, for $14 a week or whatever you want to spend, you get a great run for your money every night. Of course I would like to see them take a lesser rake but it is what it is. Consider it your entertainment dollar. If you were to go the movies with a date, that would cost you between 50 and 60 bucks probably. You can play DFS for a a fraction of that and it really adds to the excitement of watching. It's also challenging. Personally, I love it and have no problem recommending it to anyone.
Sep 15, 2015 18:11:26
Great hit on the 2 Monday nighters last night
Thank BS. It's a long swim back from the past eight weeks but I'm trying hard.
Sep 15, 2015 17:52:23
Long time follower and enjoy the free resource you provide all of us each day. Had a question on hedging, in terms of when applied to parlays. Agreeing with your assessment I took ML Atl and SF in a 3 team parlay with NE @ Pickem (thought being belichick generally gives young qbs fits and the line I personally feel is only going to swing towards the public fav patriots as the game approaches, making an even more attractive hedge) that pays approx. 9-1. I'm fairly confident in NE pulling out a win in a close game, but wanted to get your opinion if I should hedge (and for how many units?)1 to brake even on a loss, 2 units, 4.5 and lock myself up a guarantee approx. 4.5 unit win? Love to get your opinion being a longtime pro.
It might seem great in at first glance (free money, right?), but it does not maximize your potential profits. You have to give yourself about a 50% chance of winning that final game of the parlay. In the long term it would be more beneficial to ride the parlay out so you don’t lose the edge you’ve gained by increasing your odds (e.g. winning the first two games of a 3-team parlay). However, because you bet a ML parlay instead of a traditional point-spread parlay, your odds are 9-1 instead of 6-1. So let's say you wagered 10 parlays at 9-1 and let it ride every time. That would return 900 x5 for a net profit of 4500.00 minus the 500 you would lose on the other 5. Net profit of 4000.00 Let's say you hedged every time for $100 (your initial investment). You hit the same 50% and instead of profiting 4500.00 you now profit just 4000 as your odds drop to 8-1. Take away the same 500 you would lose and and you would have a net of 3500. This may seem counter-intuitive at first, but when you sort it all out, the answer is pretty simple. Don’t hedge your bets on parlays if you want to maximize your profits. Now, if you want to reduce your risk and guarantee a smaller return over the chance at a bigger return, by all means, do so. If you play all the time, do not hedge parlays. In the long run you will profit more by not hedging. Best of luck Mike and good luck with the Pats.
Sep 15, 2015 17:12:50
We both have professions that involve a certain aspect of luck and a large aspect of skill. I bet on sports because it's a welcome change to the routine. I was wondering how much (if at all) you look at previous wagers to see if you missed something or maybe overvalued something. I do that and it accounts for 15% of my time, I will review specific hands and spots and see if my play and read based on the information I had available was correct. I don't do it for sports wagering because there's no serious aspect for me only fun and I don't see it as a winning proposition (unlike you). I don't do a ton of research and most of the time I have no shame in saying it but I shadow cappers I like. I'm really curious, because if I get into a 30k-50k hands losing streak I increase my studying to about 40% of the time, since being away from the virtual felt might be beneficial anyways!!!!
Pete, I always look over the previous day results and see if I may have missed or overlooked something. I'm always looking for an edge. When I'm going bad, as I have been over the past couple of months, I wake up earlier and get a head start on the days action to be sure I don't miss an opportunity. Even when you are winning, as you know being a poker player, there is no room for complacency. I always take a few hours out a week to go over tape of pitchers, games, periods in hockey to observe as much as I can. I'm sure after a winning day at the tables, you go over some hands that you could have played differently to increase your winnings even more. In the end Pete, I work hard every day and work harder when I'm losing. I'm sure you do too. Thanks for chipping in (no pun intended) and for a cool email. Best of luck
Sep 15, 2015 14:20:18
Long time follower love your work, a couple of questions, what sports books would you use and I thought you bet 10% of your bankroll no matter what your bankroll is
Rob: It all depends on what your needs are. The best sportsbook is Pinnacle in terms of pointspreads and juice (vigor). If you are an underdog player, Sportsinteraction is a GREAT choice, as the lines on the dogs are usually inflated a half point or more. If you play a lot of favs, Pinnacle is the best. You can take a your of these sportbooks on my home page on the right and make a decision based on what is best for you. In terms of betting 10% of your bankroll, that is incorrect, as I stated on this website, I was using 10% as an example to make it easy. A more practical approach would be to use 2½% of your bankroll on each wager. Best of luck Rob.
Sep 15, 2015 12:43:46
Great reply to George re your present streak . What I do is take a : Positive Mental Attitude with lots of Self Confidence from Napoleon Hill s book Think & Grow Rich . Hope this post helps everyone . : Your silent follower : Mr. W. Baxter
Mr, W, Baxter
Thanks Mr B and sorry for the delay in answering. I've had to sort through some emails. Great recommendation so thanks for sharing.
Sep 14, 2015 17:38:23
Fan of your work and I know you're going through a real tough time (one of the worst I can remember) and I apologize if my timing of this question is poor. You say and pride yourself on your 25+ record betting on sports and claim to not work another job, so how hard is it on your personal life going through such an epic losing streak. When I was younger I tried to make a profession of it as well and realized even making +80-100 units a year was not nearly enough to support myself at the amount I was wagering. Do you have significant money set aside to allow you to live off of just potential winnings or are you just wagering significant amounts of money on each unit. Reason I ask is I can't imagine going through such a streak and not having that weigh heavily on you. Best of luck tonight, you definitely need it
No need to apologize George. Your question is a good one. I absolutely do not have another job. A three-month losing streak is really nothing in the grand scheme of things. At the end of the day (this year), I'm only stuck 30 units but there are things I do that are not reflected in my overall record on this site. For instance, half time plays and buying back liabilities when I wager on the exchange are just a couple of examples that reduce my risks. In any form of gambling, losing streaks are inevitable and I have prepared myself for them. You have to. If you knew me and saw me everyday, you would have no idea whether I'm on a 10 week winning streak or a 20 day losing streak. My demeanor remains the same every single day. My moods do not change one bit based on the outcomes. When your mood changes based on that, it's time to move on, bet WAY less or find something else. I remain confident and positive and understand the ups and downs. My model has been working for me for years and years and I'm not going to change it based on a bad run. It'll come around soon but the losing streak does not weight heavily on me one bit. Don't get me wrong, it's frustrating as hell and only an idiot would not care about losing money but when the games are over, there is nothing I can do about the outcome. I can only go to bed and wake up with a positive attitude and I assure you that's precisely what I do. There isn't a single bet I make that I don't think is going to win. I put up 3 plays today and believe wholeheartedly that all three will win. Be positive, stay positive, work hard and things always work out. At least they have for me. All the best George and thanks for a good inquiry.
Sep 14, 2015 15:59:33
Sometimes you have a choice, to laugh or cry. I like that you most often choose to laugh and move forward. I am not saying one should never cry, however those who get get caught up in excessive self pity and making excuses rarely change their circumstance. On to Monday Good Sir!
Amen to that Scully. Thanks for the encouraging message. I truly appreciate all the support I've been getting from all you good folks.
Sep 14, 2015 12:00:53
not a good call on Tampa. Winston is the next JaMarcus Russell. Will be out of the league in 2 years.
Said Nick after the game was final. By the way, I don't think David Carr will play well against Cinci last Sunday and the Jets are probably a good bet against Cleveland too.
Sep 14, 2015 07:22:26
Well, I think you may have hit rock bottom with the Tampa Bay survivor pick. As I mentioned earlier in the week, I just think that pick was so out-of-character for you. In week 1 there is just no need to back such an unreliable team when you have little or no margin for error. The Sherwood I know would wait to see if the Bucs passed the proverbial eye-test before settling on them for a survivor play. We all have our struggles in this racket, I know I have had more than my share. Right now, I just think you are trying to be too contrarian and perhaps are taking too many games. It's time to take a deep breath, clear your head and get back to basics my friend.
You warned me Joel. Thanks for the input.
Sep 13, 2015 17:58:32
Hey Sherwood thanks for all the work. As strictly an observer over the last few months, I was on when it was going well and after giving back a large portion of my winnings I sat and watched. Kind of glad I did. However, I'm still a believer but I'll wait for a turn around, unfortunately I don't have the bankroll to weather the storm. I would like to make one comment however, for years my friends and I have talked about betting the opposite of what we like, surely at the end of the year we'll be winners. Honestly had I taken that advice over the last 10 yrs of pro sports betting, I can't even imagine how much I'd be up. As for your advice, do you ever think you're out smarting yourself, you talk about value here and value there, maybe sometimes it has to cost you some juice to catch a winner, sometimes the most obvious pick is the right pick. Rather than looking at other games that may have value (and potentially a winner) maybe the right play is to just pick the winner. I've never gone throughout the entire line up, I pretty much look at your plays and follow those only. I'm curious how many "sure things" I use the term loosely, but regardless, how many of them have come in? Just a thought that sometimes when your strategy isn't working, maybe going against all logic or going with logic depending how you look at it, is the right answer. Don't give it too much thought, just pick the team that should win. Just my two cents, enjoy the season looking forward to jumping back on real soon!
Thanks J. There are really no real answers to snapping out of a funk. I do understand your position and may consider it because over-analyzing games can sometimes drive one crazy. I appreciate the suggestion and support.
Sep 13, 2015 10:18:21
I know Point Spread with the OLG is a suckers game in most cases, but how about the value of the inflated lines? For example, I was looking at taking STL +5 and WAS +4.5, any thoughts?
Chris: Sorry I didn't get back to you yesterday. For my take on the OLG "edges" and just playing it in general, here is an article I wrote last year:
Sep 12, 2015 18:48:07
NCAA and NFL are back!!! Cant wait for a lovely season of write-ups and insight on football. Tough year on baseball, but baseball is the toughest thing to predict with the 162 game schedule. I look forward to riding the Sherwood train to prosperity, and in my eyes, she started today with a beauty pick and writeup on Virginia. Fantastic call, and great reasoning behind the pick. Ditch the crap shoot that is the MLB regular season, and Dial into the money maker in Football. Thanks again Buddy!
Sep 12, 2015 17:17:50
Hey Brian, Just want to say thanks again for all the picks and write-ups. It really has been my pleasure not only for the extra knowledge but for the extra units as well. Here's hoping to a great NFL season... Cheers, David
David O
Sep 12, 2015 10:29:28
It's been a rough go since mid May or so but it happens. I remember right before you hit this funk, you won 15 or so straight in a row in late April or early May. Sports betting is no different than the stock market. There will be months of losses and treading water. There will also be months of gains. You just need to adjust your bets accordingly. Keep up the good work Brian, your free picks are very appreciated. To all you bandwagon naysayers, when you criticize Brian, please post your picks for the current day as well, and let's keep a record of your picks. Also, please post your picks BEFORE game time. Posting during the game or after is no different than saying you meant to bet on Red and not Black during a roulette game. Cheers.
Thanks Chris. I have to thank you and all the rest of the readers of this forum for writing in with encouraging words during what I have to believe is the worst run I've had in 15 years. It really means a lot to me that you all took time to write in with support. THANKS A MILLION!! That said, I'm still very positive and confident. I try harder and dig down deeper every day in an order to snap out of this funk. On to today! Thanks again guys.
Sep 10, 2015 21:48:17
Anyone who has been following your picks over the years knows that better days are ahead. Having said that, you have made a curious selection for Week 1 for survivor poolies. Trusting a team who could only muster 2 wins last season to deliver a win when you have little or no margin for error seems out of character for you. Best of luck. Looking forward to your post-season baseball selections.
Joel: No matter who you take this week, it's a gamble. It's a tough week to pikc straight up winners. I would never post something that I do not play myself. I am in three Survivor Pool and have played the Bucs in two of them. Like I said, Tampa to me is a very underrated group that could have a very good year. The 2-14 record from a year ago means nothing. In football, the margin for error is thin for most teams and besides, I see the Titans as a complete disaster. If I'm willing to wager on TB at -3, I'm absolutely willing to play em as pick em in my Survivor Pool. Best of luck this weekend friend and thanks for writing in!
Sep 10, 2015 13:59:11
I also liked Pats' story and like playing the ponies as well. I keep records of my bets and only bet what I can afford to. At least this site does the same thing year in and year out. As for the jackasses and idiots that diss on a losing selection my attitude is this. Start up your own handicapping site posting your FREE picks and do better.
Brian Hayward
Sep 9, 2015 19:02:45
Keep up the good work. Always enjoy your analysis. Streaks happen good and bad. I've learned over the years when you're going bad scale back. When it turns (which it will) you will not have ruined your bankroll and you will be in position to take advantage of the turn of circumstances. the other guy makes the error, balks in a run etc..Money management is very important during the lean times.
Sep 9, 2015 13:57:29
Great story Pat. I think any seasoned player has a similar story, and for those who do not it is because they burned through their bankroll chasing during the losing streak. Sherwood, thank you for each day breaking down literally the entire sports menu while looking for valuable winners. Unfortunately, finding winners is not always easy or the end result. It is inevitable that a sports investor/gambler will have a ten game losing streak at some point; it is a reality. It amazes me that people come here seeking your professional opinion for free and then complain when games lose. Here is thought for those individuals, cap the games yourself, do not blindly follow anyone, and stop betting more money than you can afford to lose. I have never seen Sherwood go to anyone and place a gun to their head forcing them to play his picks. So to those who are too lazy, or economically challenged, and or simply not mature or educated enough, please move on and find someone who gives 100% winners so you will be happy. This site will survive without you and your negative comments.
Thanks so much for a great response Scully. Us "seasoned players" understand the peaks and valleys a lifetime of gambling will inevitably go through and I could not have said it better than you. Thanks again.
Sep 9, 2015 12:53:07
Sherwood, it strikes me as funny that losing streaks bring out the worst in people and blame you for picks they couldn't have pulled out of their ass if they had to. I've been a player for more than 25 years now and particularly play the ponies. I once went on 60 day losing streak....nosed out, DQ from win position, bad jockey ride etc. However, I stuck to my guns and continued handicapping the the way I always did...eventually snapped out and went on one of my longest winning streak ending the year positive as you said. There's a reason they call it gambling....and if you cannot stand the heat and live through losses then shut the fuck up....
Thanks Pat. Well said. I totally understand that money brings the best and worst out in people. Just go to a casino and observe at the tables and you'll see examples of it every day. I appreciate the encouraging words Pat and the time you took to write...Thanks much.
Sep 9, 2015 10:57:10
Perfect MLB day. Good to see you're hitting on all cylinders heading into NFL.
There is an old cliche that says, If you can't stand the heat, keep out of the kitchen". The messages have been coming fast and furious over the past few days telling me what a loser I am among other things. To those people I say, "I can take the heat". There is no question that I'm in the midst of a horrible run for which I have no apologies for. I work hard, I bet every game myself and I'm not going to allow an inevitable bad run alter my philosophies. Not when they have been proven over 14 years on this site and in 30 years of wagering myself. So bring it on. Like I said, I can take it. Cliches have been around for a very long time and that's because they're true. There's another one that says, Misery loves company" and in that regard, you morons that get satisfaction in others losing money are living a life of misery and get joy in others losing. That's pathetic. Let me end this by saying I have 9000 readers a day and for every one idiot that sends hate messages, there are 1500 good people that have the same goal as me. To those I say, "Thanks for the support over the years". I'm more frustrated than anyone but it does not change my mood, my confidence or my approach. We'll snap out if it, like we always do, we'll go on a huge run, like we always do, end up positive at the end of the year, like we always do and then I'll never hear from this group of haters again, just like always. Peace out.
Sep 9, 2015 01:39:02
I begin to think you're working for the books...your MLB picks are so bad...your reasonings are spot on but you are not getting the results...
Sep 9, 2015 01:13:53
the Va Tech game was not graded. I hope you get out of this slump just in time for NFL season . You went from + 45 units to + 12 but you are still on the plus side.Your record is way below .500 so some of your readers will need all the help you can give them.if anyone can pull out of this it is you. All the best pulling for you
Thanks very much Frank for the support. I really do appreciate the vote of confidence.
Sep 9, 2015 00:59:08
Is any one else loving this beating that Sherwood is taking??? He sits here and bashes people's comments and then blames "luck" for his picks. Still up on the year though. Maybe try a tout service at least they would be right 50 percent of the time if you were to call twice and they gave you opposite picks. Keep up the good work!!!
Better then morning comics
Sep 5, 2015 10:10:25
Outstanding start to the College Football season! Can't wait to see what you are going to serve up today. Surprised we aren't continuing the Weaver fade today. The Rangers certainly have a lineup that can take advantage of his struggles.
Thanks Joel. As for Weaver, I really just didn't like the way the Angels have manhandled the Rangers all year. Had the price been a little better on Holland and Texas, I may have bitten.
Sep 4, 2015 16:28:41
Might add Re MSU/WMU the Spartans also have Oregon up next week. Big 2nd half meltdown for MSU last year in that game.
Sep 3, 2015 13:04:19
Thanks for the post. I like Minn to cover in CFB tonight as well. I also like UNC to cover against SC - will be a shootout but I like their QB. best of luck on the upcoming season and great job with the write ups!
Thanks Nick and best of luck with your games too.
Sep 2, 2015 15:40:59
College Football is just around the corner. Like any games on Thursday? Thanks!
Yes Nick, I do like a bunch of games this weekend and I'll be posting them tomorrow (Thursday)
Sep 2, 2015 00:49:51
Minn Over 3.5 runs where is the loss Sherwood!! Cheat!!
Seriously Dude? Check the results. You'll see a 4+ unit loss on that game. I've been running this site for 12 years or so and have never skewed any numbers before and you think I would now over 2 units? Give your head a shake and crawl back under the rock from which you came out from.
Aug 30, 2015 16:23:42
What happened to min team total over. Don't cheat now
Aug 28, 2015 07:45:14
Hey Sherwood, a while back a fellow by the name of Frank challenged you to a head-to-head contest in the NFL this year for cash. You accepted and said you would keep us posted as to the progress. Just wondering what ever happened with that? BTW, I read your stuff every day. win or lose, you are extremely accurate in your analysis and I enjoy the insight and quality of your writeups.
That's exactly right Eric. I accepted the challenge for a $3000 wager (he said name the price) and I never heard back from him again. That was well over a month ago, maybe two.
Aug 28, 2015 07:39:40
Just sending my thanks...Analysis of the Montreal-Hamilton tilt was very impressive; So much so that I passed on the handicap and took Montreal to win outright. Thus I have you to thank for my largest win in 9 years...Talk about completely nailing it. It\'s like you wrote it up after the match. Congrats to both of us and keep up the great work.
You're welcome Paul and I really do appreciate the time you took to write.
Aug 22, 2015 18:31:33 should have said something yesterday.....adding a comment like this today, is completely meaningless......
Aug 22, 2015 00:12:07
Perhaps predicting that the ticats aren't going to keep putting up video game numbers isn't a wise way to go.
Perhaps predicting or commenting on picks after the game is final isn't the way to go. The most amazing thing is that NOBODY has ever been wrong after the game was final. NOTE: This message came in about three hours after that game was final.
Aug 19, 2015 18:34:16
Funny how you guys handicapped the Mets' Syndegaard tonight. What you said about him certainly is correct, but one ALARMING stat that worries me to do about him, is that Syndegaard is 0-5 with a 5+ ERA on the road. The Mets are 1-7 in his 8 road starts. You guys know, a lot is situational. I come to your site everyday. I like the site and hope it continues. I like to read WHY someone likes a team, and the method of analyzing the matchup. Keep up the good work.
The thing I like about Syndergaard tonight was his complete dominance against righties and that's where most of Baltimore's threats come from. Another reason we took the Mets is because Jimenez is overvalued. Your point is a valid one however, Brian. Thanks for taking the time to write and for the kind words too. BTW, this site will continue as long as I'm healthy and of sound mind, which might be another 30 years....I hope.
Aug 18, 2015 22:05:22
Keep up the good work. Do you think you'll have any NFL season win bets?
Thank you Michael. Will definitely have one or two season win totals posted 7-10 days before the openers.
Aug 18, 2015 05:57:17
Love your daily picks and write-ups. I've learned a tremendous amount reading your write-ups. Although I don't always agree, I can't thank you enough for allowing me to "see your logic/thought process".
Thanks very much Pat for the kind words and support.
Aug 15, 2015 14:52:30
Your analysis of the Jays is pretty spot on. Their offense is uneven, sporadic and will start costing them a lot of games when their pitching becomes less effective. I see Tulowitzki having good at bats, but producing almost nothing. The team is fantastic but they're not playing amazing baseball and will still lose 1/3 of their games even when they are playing their best ball. I'll definitely be watching for inflated lines against them in the next few weeks.
I think you're being a little generous Magus by suggesting they'll lose 1/3 of their games since the best teams play about .600 ball. Jays offense enjoyed a very charmed life for an extended period of time. I think Gibby needs to balance his top heavy offense a little more by batting Revere 1st, Tulo, 2nd 3rd or 4th. Donaldson 3rd or 4th and Colabello 7th instead of cleanup.
Aug 14, 2015 14:31:30
Sherwood, I know you hate road dogs, but the Argos at plus 6, come on, Bombers have no qb, and in this league that spells doom, GO ARGOS. Also love Calgary to hammer Ottawa on Saturday
Argos are -6 Tom, not +6. If they were +6 I would have taken them for sure. P.S. I don't hate road dogs, I dislike road favorites because they have a low win %.
Aug 9, 2015 02:05:30
Just a note about Jed Tedford, he had several years in the cfl as a player and coach before he went to the ncaa, hence Wally Buono turned to an old friend with cfl kmowledge
Aug 6, 2015 23:26:09
Jeff Tedford will suffer the same fate as Dan Hawkins. These experienced former NCAA coaches are too set in their ways to adapt to the Canadian game. The first half turned on the decision to receive a kickoff instead of accept a drive start at the 35 yard line following an Eskies FG. It looks like we'll have to wait at least another week to cash against overrated Edmonton.
Chris G.
Note: this was sent at half-time in Thursday's B.C./Edmonton game......I agree with you Chris about Tedford. Furthermore, Lulay looks BRUTAL. However, the game is still four quarters long so let's see what happens.
Aug 6, 2015 19:32:45
You love the contrary baseball picks! I think the jays and yanks are gonna win BiG 2 nite (it's I-0 jays already to be fair) but u got the twins and bosox winning!...I would wish u luck but it would cost me $$$$$$$$!
Aug 5, 2015 09:04:25
Do you think today might be the day the roof collapses on Taylor Jungmann? You weren't very high on his potential in your call-up section (with good reason), but he has held his own through several starts. Today he is matched up against hard-luck Ian Kennedy, who I agree is better than his statistics indicate. I'm thinking Padres and Padres -1.5 could be in play. Thoughts?
I agree Joel. Perhaps not that roof collapses on Jungmann but that Ian Kennedy is undervalued and that the Padres beat Jungmann and the Brewers today. That game will be one of our featured picks today.
Aug 4, 2015 13:30:23
I noticed you are not sold on the Pirates' hitting. Which team do you think is the strongest of the MLB wild card contenders and which favorites do you feel are overvalued?
I'm not sure which is the strongest but I assure you that nobody wants to run into the Blue Jays around playoff time. I also think that the White Sox can pose a serious threat with a rotation that includes Sale, Quintana, Samardzija and Rodon. The Twins are a complete fraud and I don't like the Orioles, Tigers or Rangers to hang around to the end of Sept either. As for overvalued favs, pencil in Pitt, Washington and the Halos. It's a wide open race that should provide us with some outstanding value down the stretch.
Aug 4, 2015 13:02:19
Hi Brian, I have a question regarding bankroll management. I know you had a tough run the last few months, my bankroll went down about halfway so I lowered my units. It happens, I understand, my question is, say a tough streak happens, should I work my way up to my original bankroll betting less or refill and bet what I used to? Thanks and keep up the great work!
Chris, My general rule is that you risk a % of your bankroll no matter what. For instance, if you are risking 2% of your bankroll every day, your bets will naturally decrease when you're losing and increase when you are winning. Just stick with a certain percentage (I recommend 2 or 2½ of your bankroll on every wager) and your bankroll will dictate the amount of the wager. It works well because your bets decrease during bad runs and increase during good runs.
Aug 4, 2015 12:22:50
Get job last night. Good thing I took your advice. Thanks very much, truly appreciated....
David O
You're welcome David. I only hope it continues or that there is more consistency than that past couple of months. BEST OF LUCK!
Aug 4, 2015 09:21:30
Nice 3-0 night for you last night. You nailed both MLB games and the CFL game as well. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Tim. Obviously I'm satisfied with a good night, as 3-0 was the goal but I'm far from satisfied with this year's baseball season or the past couple of months. Those 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1 nights have been far too infrequent recently and I'll be striving for more consistency moving forward. Thanks for taking the time to write Tim and for the support.
Aug 3, 2015 13:03:25
Oh boy, not going against the Argos again are we? They'll be up for this one and are playing too well and with too much swagger to be spotting anything more than an FG against. I'll wait until they are at home and take back some points against them. Good luck today.
Chris G.
Thanks Chris.
Aug 2, 2015 21:46:28
Reading comments every few days on this site is always interesting, and I just realized why of late we are seeing so many negative comments. People like myself recommend your site. Word of mouth is overwhelming and your site is becoming more and more popular. I know for a fact one bookmaker who anxiously awaits your super bowl pick every year. With more traffic comes more losers, so of course we get the whining, keep up the good work, thank you. Did we get screwed or what on the Stamps game! unreal, oh well
Thanks Tom. I appreciate the comments.
Aug 2, 2015 19:36:36
Averting a sweep must not have been that important to the Angels. Terrible move putting in a rookie with a 7.20 ERA to face the heart of the Dodgers order in the bottom of the 10th. Sometimes I really question the competence of these long-tenured managers like Scioscia.
I question the competence as well Joel. Very frustrating game and your points are completely valid.
Aug 2, 2015 12:44:28
Good point on the Royal's bats, but I'm just not sold on Dickey. I post my predictions before game time because I believe you lose all credibility when you predict as soon as the game starts, in the middle, or at the end. There could be a devastating injury during the first pitch, who knows. As for those guys, as the Oasis song goes " Put yer money where your mouth is, yer mama sez that you was real."
Amen John
Aug 2, 2015 11:51:52
Took the Royals +134 on the Money Line against the Jays. Dickey on 3 days rest with the roof open makes me think the value is with the Royals this afternoon.
I don't think 3 days rest will effect Dickey as much as others but that's not to say he'll have a good game. He's always a risk and you may just have a winner there John. I look closely at all games and I just don't like the way the Royals are swinging the bats over the past 2 weeks and that's the main reason I laid off that value. Jays at home are tough and the only reason they lost yesterday was because of an error by Buehrle, a play he makes 1999 times out of 2000. I wish you luck in the game John and I especially appreciate you sending this in before game time. I cannot even begin to tell you how many emails I get from clowns after the game is over telling me how I missed a pick....Here's an example of one after the Edmonton/SASK CFL game. This email came at about 1:30 AM, long after the game was over: "Edmonton has a great defense and Sask had a rookie QB going. Easy winner Sherwood but once again you missed it". Makes me laugh every time.
Aug 2, 2015 07:49:18
Well... an ending like that in the Stamps game makes me sick. When does the NFL start. What a joke the CFL is. I'm looking forward to your analysis of real football in the coming months. Keep up the good work man.
I hate to tell you this Cam but the NFL is just as bad in terms of weird stuff, bad calls by the refs and bizarre endings. My position is that football on all levels has been ruined by the various league's constant need to change the rules in an attempt to increase scoring. Scoring sells and now the refs call everything and the game has become a farce. When we see a great play in football, we don't cheer, we hold our breath for a few seconds in anticipation of those inevitable flags EVERY SINGLE TIME. In my opinion, football has become un-watchable. It's OK to watch on a Sunday afternoon with 8 games going at once but independently on Thursday, Sunday night or Monday night, NFL football is un-watchable from an entertainment standpoint. The NFL brand on the field is brutal, not because the players are bad but because the league has ruined the game. The only reason people watch it is because they wager on it and because fantasy football has become fucking HUGE. The NFL deserves an award for the way they market their product but the game itself is un-watchable and by far the least entertaining of all the major sports. It blows my mind that in October, TV ratings for am NFL Thursday night game between Jacksonville and Indianapolis will draw a higher rating than a major-league baseball playoff game. That's how good the NFL markets its product. In terms of entertainment, comparing football on TV to the NHL, MLB or NBA is like comparing Roseanne Barr to Jessica Alba.
Aug 1, 2015 16:26:11
Love your Stampeder pick today, I'm with you, go Stamps
I'm just playing the value Tom and hopefully it'll work out. Glad we're on the same side so BEST of LUCK. Go Stamps.
Jul 29, 2015 14:30:40
Hey Sherwood, i wanted to say thank you for all your hard work everyday with your countless insight and write ups on all your picks . In my book you are the man !! Where else will you get free picks everyday (MLB, NFL, CFL, you name it) with a detailed write up, keep up the good work my friend...
Thanks Dog. You really hit the nail on the head when you said, "Where else do you get free picks with detailed writeups". That's what I don't understand about folks who complain. I could understand if I was charging 100's of dollars like tout services and not delivering but I ask for nothing in return, not even a sign up. Oh well, let em complain if that makes them sleep better at night. Anyway Dog, you're very welcome and I appreciate the kind words and support.
Jul 29, 2015 12:14:55
I have been gambling a long time.I appreciate anyone who teaches me something or who can expand my thinking. Thank-you.
What a cool message Kevin, thank you for writing. I'm exactly the same way and really appreciate those I can learn anything from, not just in gambling but in any capacity. You are a wise man.
Jul 28, 2015 17:47:08
Hey Brian, What's your opinion on the Jays this year and going forward with the rest of the season. I know you're fond of Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, and even Hutch's potential in the next few years. As for this year, do the numbers say the pitching staff is in for a turnaround or are just a lost cause? You know how depressing sports can be in this town, hopefully some good luck is awaiting during the dog days of summer.
Jays starting staff isn't likely to hold up Shane but the good news is that they have a great offense and a great chance to win the AL East. Jays are also just 3 games back of Minnesota for the final Wild Card spot. Should they get into the playoffs anything can happen in a short series. Jays definitely got better with Tulowitzki and perhaps now they can trade a guy like Encarnicion or even Bautista for a legit starter. With Tulowitzki, it opens up more possibilities because a lot of teams are looking for offense, like the Mets for instance, who have an abundance of quality starters. Jays chances of getting into the playoffs are as good as any team in the East chasing a Wild Card spot, which should make for an exciting August and September. Jays are definitely a factor.
Jul 28, 2015 09:51:39
I haven't been wagering as long as you, but have been for a long time. I rarely take teams in hockey or baseball to win by 1.5 goals/runs. One rule I always adhered to was to never lay the run and a half with a home baseball side. This year, you seem to be playing these home sides often. Personally, I just hate the thought of the home team loading the bases in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game and a ball getting hit that would normally produce multiple runs, but only one of those runs would count. Was my logic flawed?
Joel: Your logic is not flawed one bit. It's not a bad rule you adhere to at all. Spotting 1½-runs with home teams in baseball brings extra risk for sure but that extra risk is figured into the line. That's the only reason I play them. The risk is higher but the reward is greater. With that, If I see value in that extra risk, I'll play it. That doesn't mean it's right or wrong, it's just one of the risks I'm willing to take from time to time.
Jul 27, 2015 18:04:43
It amazes me also that idiots write in to say ridiculous and negative things at all! You should be commended every day for your tireless, interesting and accurate picks and analysis..... and I can't express how much I appreciate seeing them every day....low self esteem idiots that jump on every loss don't realize that sometimes the best pick doesn't win! Keep up the great work, I read every day...
Thanks a million Jeff. There is nothing else I can say other then thanks for taking the time to write. It means a lot.
Jul 25, 2015 08:50:45
Arrrrrrrgosssssssss! All kidding aside, talk about a team that refuses to lose. I think that is one variable that analytics and advanced stats cannot account for. When a team has great chemistry and believes in themselves, they can accomplish anything despite whatever shortcoming they might have in terms of personnel or X's and O's. Right now, the double blue are feeling it. Proceed with caution.
Chris G.
Agreed Chris. They are playing tough football indeed, mentally and physcially
Jul 25, 2015 06:11:24
Can this epic CFL run continue? Keep the fade material coming!
It amazes me how many folks like yourself cannot wait to kick a guy when things aren't going well. Why not just fade and say nothing?
Jul 25, 2015 00:03:39
Suggestion, could u post your cfl picks in the same manner as nfl picks? Those of us in the west cannot always access them on time
Tom, unfortunately that would not be possible because a a lot of my choices depend heavily on the line movement. I will be changing my format for NFL picks too this year, posting unofficial plays on Friday but updated them on Sunday to official plays if warranted. Line movement is a key criteria for my selections.
Jul 23, 2015 11:16:46
Sherwood: What makes you so refreshing is your fearless approach to attacking pitchers or teams that most people would not dare take on. You attacked Barry Zito long before anyone else and the same can be said for Jered Weaver and now James Shields. You have constantly recognized a pitcher in trouble way before anyone else that I have ever read caught them or long before their value goes down. I couldn't give a damn about what other's think. The valuable info you provide for free every day is greatly appreciated by myself and I'm sure many others. You have conviction and confidence in what you do and anyone that comes on here and bashes you is a sorry excuse for a human being. Like you say, you ask for nothing in return and it amazes me how many people "root" for others to lose. Although I don't always agree with you, the write-ups are entertaining, well researched and worth the read for anyone with any brains whatsoever. By the Sherwood, you have saved me many bets that I would have made but did not because of your research and sharing them. Much respect sir.
Vic. You made my day. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Jul 22, 2015 19:55:59
I see from time to time that Sportswagers recommends to bet a baseball team -1. Where does one find that option on 365 Bet. They seem to offer money line or the minus or plus 1.5.
Bob: In all our -1 bets we include a link in our write-ups that simulate -1 for those that don't have a sportsbook that offers it up. Bet365, Sportsinteraction and Betfair all do not offer up this type of bet. However, you can simulate it by using this formula from the following website:
Jul 19, 2015 12:52:13
All valid points. Thank for your write ups. Im taking the over.
Joey in Bmore
Jul 19, 2015 12:30:46
Hey Sherwood, would like to know if you spend much if any time looking at a pitchers past history against certian teams. I know Felix is a better pitcher than CC but Felix stinks againts the current Yankees and CC has dominated current Mariners. Don't see the value in betting the run line with a weak hitting Seatle team on the road against a pitcher they have had no success against. And all you preach is value.
Joey in Bmore
I do look at that Joey and at times I put weight on it. That said, I do preach value and very rarely are you going to get a price like this on Felix against a stiff like C.C. Those batters stats against specific pitchers can be misleading because C.C. had success years ago against everyone and the result is skewed numbers. You look at guys like J.J. Hardy, Ron Howard, Shane Victorino and many others and they have outstanding numbers against many pitchers but it's misleading because they had success for many years. C.C's numbers against current M's or anyone else is also misleading because of his great success for a decade. Over the past two years, Sabathia's skills have dramatically declined while Hernandez is as good as ever. The true value here is Hernandez a cheap price against CC.
Jul 19, 2015 11:23:35
you put down a tie for the tampa bay/blue jay game. I thought you won that game
It was a 5-inning bet. Game was tied 1-1 after 5
Jul 19, 2015 09:34:32
Hi Sherwood, Just wanted to thank you for your ongoing analysis and free picks. I can imagine it takes quite a lot of effort and time to write up several paragraphs every morning.
It really does John and I can't thank you enough for taking the time to send some kind words this morning when I've been going bad for a couple of months. It means a lot and reflects your kind nature and spirit. All the best John.
Jul 18, 2015 22:22:49
Finally someone puts his money where his mouth is. And Frankieboy don't just spew picks. Do actual research eh? And how about you post ONE game of ANY sport that you research. If you want, I challenge you or any of the other idiots to an NHL or NCAAF season series. 3 picks a week. Any amount min 1k.
Well, he hasn't actually put his money where his mouth is yet. If he does, I'll let everyone know.
Jul 18, 2015 21:39:23
Sherwood enough is enough you dog me for making a comment and my words speak for themselves. Take away your one good month and your picks have been garbage. Setting out a challenge for the upcoming NFL season four picks a week two units a pick. You set the prize. This is taking candy from a baby. (Hence your reaction to my original comment)
That's a challenge I welcome Frank. I will set the prize at $3000 minimum, $5000 max. Your choice. That said, I will not get involved unless the money is put front up by both parties. We can get an agreed mediator to hold it and pay the winner. The mediator will also have to be sent the picks and post them at game time. That way, we can't see one another's picks until game time. The ball is in your court. If you are in agreement, you can email me directly and we can set it up.
Jul 15, 2015 23:22:44
Living in Calgary its easy to get caught up in Stamps hysteria being cup champs and all, but the truth is this team is in trouble with a offensive line in ruins. Stanley Bryant went to Winnipeg, Brett Jones went to the NFL, and now their two starting tackles both are gone long term I see they are 9 to 10 point favourites this Saturday after playing a tough game on Monday. I know where my money is going and it is not on the home side
Thanks Tom. Always good to hear from people locally because they usually have a good read going on. Thanks for taking the time to share this info and your thoughts. Best of luck.
Jul 15, 2015 14:20:14
Damn,dude, people been given you some serious beats! Thanks for putting them up on your site as it makes for very funny reading! And you are UP for the year, can you imagine if you were DOWN! Been making consistent bread on tennis and yes I know that only degenerates bet on tennis! At least I'm not going to bet on the ESPY awards! Pick On!
The funny thing is that it's actually true (that I'm up on the year). Tennis is extremely popular in Europe to bet on. Just look at Betfair's tennis markets. The liquid on events is crazy. Anyway, thanks for taking the time to write Scott and keep on making that tennis money!
Jul 15, 2015 12:51:44
Sherwood all your followers must join draft kings to qualify for the football pool this year? Doesn't seem like your style. A little disappointment for your loyal followers, as I'm not into risky business.
No Steve, you don't have to join Draft Kings to qualify. It'll be the same rules as every year with no obligations whatsoever. Sorry if I articulated it in a way to make you think that.
Jul 14, 2015 12:38:01
Its unfortunate that people like Frankie la douche feel like they need to rip on a website when they lose a bunch of money because they probably hammered one or two of your picks that didnt hit. Someone that feels it necessary to rip all of your picks after a couple missed picks obviously has quite the gambing issue and is venting for no reason other than that. Truly pathetic. But thanks for posting this on your site so we can see how dumb and teary eyed some of your angry 'followers' can be. Thanks for all of your free analysis and picks Sherwood, remember that one donkey's opinions does not reflect on the rest of us.
Thank you for that Dingle. Honestly, it bothers me not. There's an old cliche that says, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen". Money brings out the best and worst in people. I could actually understand the bitterness some feel if I charged for picks or made claims that I couldn't back up but I do neither. The good or appreciative people outweigh the bitter by a WIDE margin.
Jul 11, 2015 06:01:19
This is better then the morning paper comics section. Looking at your results each day makes me laugh. You do have loyal backers though. Seems to me that Curious is onto something so wondering why all the harsh remarks from you and your friends when since his post you've been downhill. (Could say the same prior to his post). Love your Randall the Handle comment as well. I wouldn't even name him as a handicapper. His sun predictions over the years makes me laugh as well. Just because you have a radio show, newspaper, or website doesn't make you a so called "expert". You're just a guy making predictions like the rest of the world trying to make a buck. Stick to pizza this week sherwood and leave the BBQ steaks to the winners.
Enjoy the laughs while they last Frank. Been through this 100's of times from people like yourself over the years. Literally hundreds and hundreds of times. Then I go on an eight-month run and never hear from you folks again, EVER.
Jul 10, 2015 16:49:41
C is a joke, if he would have taken the time to read that the game was accidentally deleted from the data base he would have known what happened. Like usual he would rather post stupid things than take the time to figure out what really happened .
Jul 10, 2015 11:48:55
HAHA. You just erased the loss on the Padres last night from your website? What a joke.
First off, it wasn't the Padres, it was the Angels. Now take a second and read above the write-ups on the home page for an explanation. I don't and never have skewed my results.
Jul 9, 2015 00:27:51
Looking at the Yanks and Oakland today, the over looks good, I checked the weather, 28 but feels like 29 so the humidity is ok, but I'm concerned about a few things. Managers tend to rest regulars in day games after playing the night before and daytime baseball seems to be a big advantage to pitchers. I know you are not big on playing totals, but would like your input Thks
I would lean to over too in that game but believe that there is more value on playing a side than a total. That's just me though Tom. It is true that I'm not a totals player but that doesn't mean you can't find value in them. My thoughts are that with the ALL-Star break beginning on Monday, managers will not be resting players because they'll all get plenty of rest during the 3-day break. That said, you can check this site for all lineups every day. The lineups are always posted at least an hour before game time and sometimes more. You'll never have to worry about who's in and who's not so best of luck. Here is the website:
Jul 6, 2015 21:23:08
Hey Brian, I have been playing online poker exclusively for many years and have had great success doing so. This is important because you taught me through your picks something very important in poker that also applies a lot in sports betting: variance. I was betting games and loved the chalk until I stumbled on the show Randall had on old team1200 in Ottawa. You taught me that making the right bet 45% of the time for value is much better than playing chalk and winning 57-60% of the time at best. I was amazed at your sub .500 record and was wondering wtf you were doing to be honest. But I read every breakdown of every game you posted and said WOW guy knows his stuff. You bet on every sport and you always seem to find an angle that's different from other people and for that I salute you friend. For you 300 picks is barely 3 months just as my stats for 25000 hands can be skewed. In the end though we are ahead and that's all that matters. Keep it up man. And you almost made me wager on ponies almost...
Pete: Thanks for a great message. This has to be one of my favorite messages since I've started this site. Your last sentence about the ponies made me laugh. Thanks again for taking the time to write and continued success in everything you do. We need an abundance of patience, discipline and good money management skills and it sounds like you have those three key elements down pat. Stay in touch.
Jul 5, 2015 23:14:21
I am really appalled by the comment from this so call Curious or EM. The fact of the matter is this website has helped thousands of us and we have learned a great deal from his site. It takes a great effort and time to come up with such well thought write ups and breakdowns on a daily basis, for which this I commend Sherwood for. I thought I would also share some tout handicapper experience I encountered recently . I signed up for 30 days premium picks at $147 U.S. from (a guy by the name of James Jones and his buddy. Would you believe these guys were being sponsored by a well-respected Kenny White of the syndicate. After a miserable 30-35 record, I decided to switch handicapper, then I stumble upon another company that promises to double or triple your ROI in 5 days, his name is Chris Sharp of for a whopping $187 US for 30 days. So far their record is another disappointing 30-39 record. Needless to say I did not know that these two are the same crooks but using different names. I tracked both their picks for the next 10 days and what do you know, they do makes pick on both sides of the same game !!! One side to the oddsworthbetting and the other on bookiecrusher. I was irate so I decided to send them an e mail, of which they did not reply of course . So Sherwood keep up the good work …
Unfortunately sir, these "tout" services stories are far too common. I wish you would have read my section on "Tout Services. Never pay for one, ever, dated on - Oct 1, 2011. I actually have a few articles on tout services and you can read them all here: or in my "Betting Advice" section located at the top of the page. Sorry you went through this but consider it a cheap lesson and never pay for picks again. Also, thanks for writing and sharing this.
Jul 5, 2015 20:11:41
I am going to defend Brian to the end of this one, he is one of the most thorough and sophisticated handicappers you will ever come across. His methodologies are innovative and cutting-edge, for sure if he didn't instruct so many players in his webinars, so many would have not enjoyed the success they have had. The man is brilliant and I am not the only one I know that feels that way.
Thanks a million for that Keith. I really appreciate the kind words.
Jul 5, 2015 11:56:01
With you all the way on Argos, love them being a dog against a old fading Rider team, great pick and good value. I see you have yet another whiner writing to complain. Why do these people bother? I don't like Judge Judy so I choose to not watch her. I don't write her and tell her my reasons for not liking her because I am sure she does not care. People who gamble and lose find excuses to place blame elsewhere. So it goes....
Thank you for that Tom. Great Judge Judy Judy analogy too! Man, that was close, the Argos game that is, and lucky but I'll take it.
Jul 5, 2015 09:55:43
Trolls, trolls trolls. You are a gentleman for even bothering to respond. Make no mistake 99+% of your readership appreciates and MAKES MONEY from your website.
Thank you Ralph, I appreciate that very much.
Jul 5, 2015 00:43:05
I wrote an email the other day speaking about your record over the last several months as well as your numerous sports books and how they pay you. You don't post a response to it but yet post praise for your Montreal pick. Lol great day today as well with one win.
Ok, if you insist....see below.
Jul 4, 2015 00:10:59
Sherwood, great pick on ALS, wish I had done same, kudos. I love Argos vs Riders, will watch for your say
Thanks Tom. The value was there in the 17½ point-spread swing from Week 1 to Week 2 and so it made the choice an easy one for me.
Jul 3, 2015 09:13:00
Sherwood let's just lay the cards out on the table. I've been following you for several months now and your record has been sub par. Great start to the year but the last few over 300 picks with little to no profit. Also you play (or at least list) every sports book out there for the best odds. An average player has one (maybe two) sports books so once again the best odds every time adds to the so called success. Your write ups are good and people appreciate that, but all don't be fooled free site, that the sponsors pay for. Too much credit given.
If you insist…..I usually don’t answer messages like yours because of how ridiculously ill-informed you are but first let me say that I’m not looking for your approval and couldn’t care less about it. You’ve been watching closely over the past “300 plays” or so and I’ve shown little to no profit. 300 plays, huh? If you’re looking for a get rich quick scheme, and obviously you are, you’re in the wrong place. So let’s “lay the cards” on the table, shall we? I’ve shown a profit in four of the last five MLB seasons (6 of 11 seasons overall), seven of the past nine CFL seasons, seven of 11 college football seasons including the last 7 years in a row, eight of the last 11 NFL seasons, eight of the last NHL seasons and finally six of 11 college hoops seasons. You couldn’t find a single “tout” service that people shell out thousands of dollars for that comes close to this site’s record over the past dozen or so years. There’s another difference too. This site is free, always has been and always will be. 1 month or 6 months or even a full year or season means absolutely jack you fool. Do you understand how luck plays a huge part in the outcome of these games every single day? Take yesterday for instance. I went 1-5. Cleveland lost 1-0. 1 base hit with runners in scoring position and the score is different. Same goes with St. Louis. The Mets rallied in the ninth with three runs and one more base hit and the game is tied. On Friday, Tampa blows a 3-0 lead in the eighth and a 5-3 lead in the 11th. Sometimes you miss a game on an error or a ball that lands fair or foul by a couple of inches. It goes in streaks and the same goes for football, basketball, hockey or any other sport you may wager on. Yesterday was not unique either. This stuff happens every day of every year in every sport. I look for value and play it and let the chips fall where they may. Over 12 years, you are going to go on good streaks and bad streaks. This year, I got off to a 12-1 start in MLB baseball and “LUCK” played a part, just like it does every single fucking day in every sport. Once you embrace that fact, you’ll understand that in the grand scheme of things, a month or year matters not. I’ll stick to playing value while you go ahead and look for someone to meet your expectations of getting rich quickly. The last part of your letter says, “Your write ups are good and people appreciate that, but don't be fooled by the free site that the sponsors pay for”. Once again you comment on something you know nothing about. That’s called ignorance. I bet sports for a living. I started this site out when the internet was still in its infancy stage and never expected anything. I started it because I did the research anyway and wanted to share it with those less informed and show people another way of looking at sports betting. It caught on and I’ve enjoyed doing it ever since. It connects me with people that I would have never otherwise had the opportunity to connect with. I have met hundreds of people from all over the world because of it. I have stayed in touch with plenty of them and it has enriched my life. Some I have never met but stay connected to on social media or email and I have enjoyed that correspondence as well. I have worked closely with Randall the Handle, Daniel Negreanu and a few other well-known names in the gambling industry. The income generated from my sponsors couldn’t support a baby. It covers my costs of running this site and not a lot more. I have a mortgage payment, two kids and all the expenses that the average person has so just getting out of bed everyday costs close to 2000 a month. I have betting sports professionally for the past 16 years after working for several gambling publications prior to leaving it all behind 16 years ago and doing this full time and you comment on a month of “watching closely”. I work hard and bet hard. I have the utmost confidence in what I do. I find value and over the past 16 years it has served me well by allowing me and my kids to lead a very decent life. Seriously dude, you really think I need your approval or care about your dummy comments about “watching closely for 300 plays or so. Give your head a shake.
Jul 1, 2015 11:37:33
Sherwood, I want to follow up with David O's comments from June 30th..You have shown me a different side/way to handicap games..You and your site are professional and trustworthy..Keep up the great work..Never was interested in wagering on the ponies but I do look forward to your webinar..I'm sure I can learn something..Again, thank you..Doug M.
Thanks very much Doug. I really appreciate the kind words.
Jun 30, 2015 11:26:18
You and I had a great day yesterday Brian. I thank you. I was handicapping your picks and the value was so sweet to the taste (I still believe KC was the right bet.) especially Sox game. I also sprinkled a little on Cleveland, so all in all, not a bad day. Thanks again. Your site really raises the bar in this line of work. Of course we all have our swings but this site has been nothing but honest, professional and profitable..... Thanks again, David O
David O
David: Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Your message made my day. Not many people realize how much work I put into this site and the hours I put in of research to write these games up so when I get a letter like yours, it really makes my day. Thanks again, great pick on CLEVELAND last night and continued success always. We're in this thing together.
Jun 25, 2015 15:46:02
Yes still following you daily . A big Thanks for all your effort . Looking forward to the CFL . w/ the new rules one might think of some high scoring games & O/U totals ? After about week # 3 & on ? Even bought my Argos tickets . Love the new ownership & BMO field in 2016. Your Silent Follower : Mr. W. Baxter .
Mr. W. Baxter
Thank you Mr. B. With the new rules in the CFL, I probably wouldn't wait until Week 3. If you think it'll produce more scoring, and we should see signs of it right away, I would bet over the total immediately BEFORE the oddsmmakers make major adjustments. If scoring is way up, as one might anticipate, by Week 3, the value on the totals will be gone or adjustments will have already been made. The window to take advantage would be now. I'll be watching closely tonight, just like you. I also love BMO Field for the CFL. It'll be a great atmosphere being back down on the CNE grounds. Best of luck.
Jun 22, 2015 23:04:37
Great stuff on the cfl futures, could not agree more
Thanks for saying so Tom. Let's get em!
Jun 22, 2015 12:34:24
Have you had any chance to post the horse webinar as promised .
No, sorry but I will have it up really soon. I have recorded two sessions but they did not come out well. One came out with no sound. The other one had sound for 1st 15 minutes and then it cut off. Will try again tonight and tomorrow. Hang in there, it won't be much longer.
Jun 19, 2015 11:34:11
Hey Sherwood, Any chance you'll be doing another Horse webinar? Missed the last one. Briefly caught some of the NBA one in Feb. Work 4 to 12 shift. Great site. Have always looked forward to your NHL and NFL information. GOOD SHIT!!! Thanks David
Thank you David. I'm working on a Horse Racing Webinar video that I'll post really soon that will give you everything you need to know. Watch the site for an update but I hope to have it posted sometime today (June 19). Best of luck.
Jun 18, 2015 13:05:27
I am doing really well with horse racing thanks again. I wonder if we can ever find UK race details as there is a lot more action and exchange bets happening there.
That's great to hear Michael. Keep it going. Here's s site that has U.K details with in-depth trainer stats. You can definitely use it. Click on the European "Flatstats" with trainers in parenthesis.
Jun 17, 2015 12:00:45
Thanks for the webinar yesterday, tons of information to digest ,is there such a thing as Horse betting for dummies? I need to understand the terms and acronym
You're welcome. I'm going to post a youTube video soon, very similar to the Webinar so that you'll be able to use it as a reference. Good luck man.
Jun 15, 2015 14:14:19
Sherwood-Your extensive research and analysis is impressive, but I feel compelled to comment on your regular references to "trap games". I assure you that bookmakers never do this. It's a myth. For example, today's Atlanta-Boston game is in the-170 range because sharp money poured in on Boston when the line opened in the -140's. That means the books actually need Atlanta money.
Thank you RC. Your comment is duly noted and while I don't agree with the "myth" about "traps" comment, I will most certainly keep an open mind about what you've said. My position on the Red Sox does remain the same, as it's a curious line whether it's -148 (opener) or -170 (current). I take what you said seriously and will definitely consult with some very respected "sharps" about future "traps" Thanks for taking the time to write and comment.
Jun 14, 2015 11:44:33
Sherwood am I reading this right? The jays and Redsox at 8.5 the over is too good to be true at Fenway w/ a home run pitcher of Estradas type. And w the jays Offence cooking like it is. Seems to me play of the day!!!
Looks pretty good Steve but sometimes those too good to be true lines are sucker bets. I hope it comes in for you. BEST OF LUCK MAN. Estrada is bound to blow up any time now.
Jun 13, 2015 14:33:56
I must admit I'm surprised you weren't on the blue jays today. They're up 3-0 at the moment, I didn't take them either but even still I thought for sure you guys would've taken them after last night. Either way just wanted to add my two cents about the Houston game, I think losing Altuve could be damaging to the Astros. The stats say Houston but I'd proceed with caution as Seattle could break out at any point. These struggles usually end with a rout of some sort, so I'm going with Seattle mainly because Altuve is out. Other picks I like, Texas -1.5, nationals, and Oakland. Keep up the good work guys.
R.A. Dickey is far too erratic to trust Eric. I understand that sometimes you just have to play the hot hand but I would want more than +115 on Dickey in Boston. I didn't see any value in taking him today. That jays bullpen worries me too, knowing that R.A. rarely gets past 6 innings. Best of luck
Jun 12, 2015 07:49:44
I didn't realize I needed Australia wallet to bet on the aussie horses
Michael: It's really nothing to transfer funds into your Australian wallet. Right beside your account balance there is an arrow to the right. Click on that and you'll see "main wallet" and Australian wallet. Click on transfer and a window will come up. Enter amount you want to transfer from your main wallet to Australian wallet and click enter. it literally takes 1 second and you are good to go. There is no exchange rate or anything like that. You are still wagering in Canadian money. Once you are done, you can transfer money back the same way from Australian wallet to Canadian wallet. It's easy as 1-2-3. Hope this helps. Best of luck.
Jun 11, 2015 13:57:06
Curious to see if you have any take on Cincinnati Reds today. Seems to be significant value, I know they struggle on the road, but the bats have woken up lately and after sweeping philly they may have some momentum heading out on this trip. The Cubs broke out yesterday but that was mostly due to terrible pitching by the Tigers (6 runs on 3 hits). Just wondering if there's any reason why you may not see the same value here, whether it be their road struggles or Lorenzen. Thanks.
Eric: Yeah, I looked close at that game and I would definitely have to agree with you on the Cinci value. Something held me off and I cannot recall what it was but I know I was damn close to writing it up. Wada was not sharp last time out so I would suggest you go with your first thought and play it. I actually like Lorenzen. Best of luck.
Jun 11, 2015 13:33:02
Love the LeBron comment. Wondering how you were so confident on golden state game 2 minus 7.5 and have shied away when they are minus 1 and now minus 2.5. Is this showing that you weren't playing value at minus 7.5 a six point drop is huge value and your not on it???
After Game 1 Steve, it looked to me like GS was ready to take control of the series and win going away. The line also suggested we play the fav, as a contrarian choice. However, that game revealed a lot about CLEVE. They want it more and they're playing like they need something while the Warriors want it less and they're playing like they already have something. Every loose ball and every other intangible is favoring the Cavs so I'm not betting against that home dog tonight. In fact, I much prefer Cleveland as a home dog taking back a tag. From what I've seen, Cleve should probably be up 3-0 in this series and it's surprising that they're taking back anything. Best of luck whichever way you decide to go.
Jun 10, 2015 22:17:12
I missed most of the webinars today,is there a way to watch the recorded version ?
It is not recorded but I will be running another one next week and a few more until football season.
Jun 9, 2015 15:26:14
Hello all, Absolutely love your write-ups on the two MLB games tonight. The insight was great. Just about to dial in the the two matches. Thank you...very much for the help and the time it took for your research. Just one more thing however; will you have a write-up concerning game 4 of the Finals tomorrow. I'd be very much interested in your opinion.
David O
David: Because we have a bet on the series, we're passing on Game 4 of the NHL finals. The series is so close with the dog offering value in every game so far. That said, winning both game in Chicago is a tall task for the Bolts and so is winning three straight. Of course they can win tonight but we're happy to be sitting it out and HOPING they win as oppose to expecting them to win. Thanks for the kind words and best of luck whichever way you decide to go.
Jun 8, 2015 10:54:30
Just wondering when you're cashing that ticket. You post a great day in Saturday to follow it up with a zero for 3 skid.
Actually it was a 0-2 day on Sunday, not 0-3 and K.C and Texas were tied in the eighth inning. That becomes a 50/50 proposition at that point. I'm just wondering why you're complaining about an 0-2 day when everyone on the planet that bets sports has them? Never mind. Forget I asked.
Jun 6, 2015 17:37:01
Hell of a day for you guys, great picks!! A bit of a nail biter for Milwaukee as I took them by 2, crazy way to get it. Needless to say great insight and glad the results backed up your analysis today. Here's to hoping you guys go on a bit of a run!
Thanks Eric. Would have been nice to get that last one but I'll take it, Garcia pitched a hell of a game but Kershaw, well, WOW.
Jun 3, 2015 15:14:09
I'll post before the game. You're going over in a game with Crawford, Belt, Pence and Marte sitting? No thanks I'll pass. Good luck,
Jun 1, 2015 11:07:36
Very well said, I find it hard to keep my cool when people make comments about your picks and would blast them if I were you. If they know as much as they think they know they would already be rich from their picks and would not be looking at yours. Keep up the good intel.
Mo: I try and give equal opportunity to all those that take the time to write, even those with negative comments. That said, the positive comments and encouragement from most far outweigh the haters. I've met GREAT people on here. I correspond with many on Twitter and email and it is truly an enjoyable experience. We're all here for the same reason and the support I get from this site is overwhelmingly positive. The negative comments phase me not. Thanks so much for taking the time to write. Here's to a profitable June and thanks again Mo for the support and kind words.
May 31, 2015 21:11:45
Always funny how the idiots come out during a losing streak but don't say anything when you were killing it in April. There was a point where I won 15 in a row in April, with 90% of those being your picks. May was a really rough month, but it happens. Some people have completely unrealistic expectations, and like you said you're not telling anyone to do anything. Looking forward to a profitable June! Cheers bud.
Thanks RV. I truly appreciate the support and wise comments. Here is some advanced math/sabermetrics for these folks you're referring to: Value + Patience + Discipline + Persistence = Profit. If you want that get rich quick shit try the MegaMillions, Powerball or whatever lottery is in your area with 87 million to one odds. I try and make this business respectable by portraying realistic results and posting them for everyone to see. Also, I don't just talk the talk. I wager on every game I post. All the best RV and thanks for the well wishes.
May 31, 2015 14:18:58
Keuchel not better than Quintana write up is about all I need to know about your baseball knowledge, "Keuchel is definitely a decent pitcher but he’s definitely not better than Jose Quintana". I'll limit my losses after yesterday. Done here.
Don: Whether you are "done here" or not makes no difference to me whatsoever. I don't ask anyone to wager on the games I post. The only thing I do is provide information and opinions on games. What you do with that info is up to you. As you know, luck plays a huge part in the outcome of so many games and the game you are referring to, Chicago was down 1-0 in the eighth inning. Houston's run was unearned. That's just one game but only an idiot wouldn't be able to acknowledge the VALUE in taking Chicago at +158 yesterday. Incidentally, Quintana and Keuchel came into the league at the same time and everything Quintana has done or continues to do is superior to what Keuchel has done over their four year careers. That includes ERA, strikeouts, walks, xERA, FIP and WAR. Furthermore, I do know a little about baseball. I study, watch and research these pitchers for hours a day and my record over the years is proof of the value I find in backing them. To make a comment based on one game or one week or one month is something I've gotten used to over the years and it comes from people like yourself who BLAME their losses on others. Look in the mirror.
May 31, 2015 10:21:39
A baseball winner in the near future would be nice This is bad.
Bad runs happen Nate. It's frustrating but it's only a month. Bad runs happen but in the long run, we'll make it up with interest. We always do.
May 23, 2015 13:04:31
Although Nick Martinez is off to a surprising start, I agree that his stats are a bit misleading. A few of his starts he was pulled early and had he gone another inning or 2 he would've lost and his ERA would be well above 3 most likely. However, for some reason when he pitches the Rangers have managed their bullpen extremely well, and the hitters have given him just enough or plenty of support. He's not an ace, but the guy keeps battling have to give him credit for that. Love this pick though.
May 17, 2015 14:49:12
You are correct there is not much value in my nhl totals, but I keep cashing, so I will keep hammering the under in the east and try over out west with a little more caution. Do you think the blue jays pitching woes will continue or can these pitchers come back to form?
Jays pitching staff is in trouble Tom so I doubt they'll contend this year. Buehrle is all luck and Dickey isn't far behind. However, I honestly think they're close with Sanchez, Norris, Strolman and Huthinson. Those 4 have the raw tools to be the most dominating rotation in baseball so things aren't looking bad at all. Wait one more year.
May 16, 2015 11:43:01
Was really hoping to see a pick for this afternoon's match between the Rangers and Bolts but that's okay, I love your baseball predictions, especially the Reds. Thanks for the insight on today's games. David
David: Was simply not crazy about either side today. Was not confident enough in TB and did not want so spot a half puck w/Rangers.Good game but still a tough call. I also refuse to put up a play for the sake of ACTION. Best of luck the rest of the way.
May 13, 2015 09:17:20
Well, I was wrong about the Canadiens in 7. What a brutal Game 6 performance. Anyway, good series bet on your part Brian. Cheers
You were wrong in the results RV but you were not wrong in your assessment of the series. Other than Game 6, Montreal outplayed the Bolts for the most part. Luck plays a huge part in the outcome of so many games and the series was actually as close as you called it. It could have easily gone the other way. Best of luck moving forward RV. You'll get em in the next series.
May 13, 2015 00:00:22
Rangers/Caps, game 7, you just have to love the under, this seems obvious
The problem Tom is that you have to lay -155 (or thereabouts) to play it under 5. That a bad wager with no value. Frankly, I can't stomach playing NHL games under 5. You only feel comfortable with the wager if the score is 1-0 or 0-0 heading to the third period. If both teams score a lousy two goals, it's a bet you cannot win. Personally, I would never bet under 5 in an NHL game but that's just me. Best of luck.
May 11, 2015 15:56:46
brian, are you still going to be doing some parlays. (unless i missed them,i have not seen them yet.) also, are you going to be doing horse racing again?
Paul: I did post some parlays earlier this month and will post some more as soon as I heat up. I will also be doing horse racing and will be holding a horse racing webinar soon. See section on "upcoming webinars".
May 11, 2015 11:26:24
I have a question regarding the result of last weeks LA Dodgers - Colorado MLB game. You recommended LA on the runline (-1.5) but the game was called due to rain at the end of 5 innings with LA leading 2-1. I made this bet with a popular online betting site but they regarded it as a loss whereas you tagged it as a push (T). What is the rule in this situation or is it a site-by-site?
Newbie: It is not site by site. It is a DEFINITE push on all sites and thus all bets must be returned. You need to contact the website and point it out. All run-line bets in baseball must go at least 9 full innings to be official. If you are still having problems please contact me with name of sportsbook and I promise to get the issue resolved in your favor.
May 10, 2015 11:31:35
Just want to say thanks again. I look forward to reading your insight every morning. Very impressive guys. Thanks very much. You really are to be commended. David
David O
Thank you David. I appreciate the time you took to write. It matters. Best of luck my friend.
May 8, 2015 18:00:36
Hey, another thing about those idiots like 'Miggy', is that they never post their own least before the game, that is.......they just tear down your picks despite the great research and analysis....anyways, I read you every day, and really appreciate all your hard work, and free analysis....
You are welcome Jeff. Thanks for writing
May 8, 2015 17:08:49
Miggy, why don't you post your plays here if you think you can pick games? You won't because you would rather post B.S. than post plays. This site is a great site for sportsbetting, the plays are top notch along with the analysis.
Thanks Tim. We are done with Miggy. His posts or any responses to them will not be posted from this point forward. Thanks for all the support everyone.
May 8, 2015 12:33:35
Miggy what about the 50+ units on the NHL, what about the college basketball and college football season? And better yet, how about you post your own research for free with historical records to prove you don't suck. Oh... You can't do that? Then stfu. End of story. 2nd point Brian, I have followed every minute of the Chicago/Minny series and agreed with the series bet and the 1st 2 games and thought it was tremendous value to bet the Wild to win it all @+1585. I'm a decent hockey capper, I have too many things going on to post, but I read your site everyday and love the insight. It just pisses me off when people are that much of a dbag and can't even post a comment to back up any of the BS. We're all in the same boat, we want to smash the books. Anyways keep up the good work. I got the Flames tonight Reg Only, and for the series. Book it.
Thanks Pete. No doubt that Chicago played a great series and were impressive as hell. That's the way it goes. That series is now over and so it's onto the next. I've lost before and I'll lose again but will continue to dig for value in the numbers. Thanks for the support Pete.
May 8, 2015 11:28:35
Hey Tom and Sherwood - Get ready for a major correction . The analysis on some of these write ups couldn't be more off , especially on the pitchers . Nice read on the Wild. Fade alert !!
All these guys like you Miggy end up disappearing, never to be heard from again. ALWAYS. These are the same comments I heard about Jared Weaver when he was winning and I kept fading him. I love fade alerts.
May 8, 2015 10:49:38
The complainers clearly are too immature to handle the ups and downs of sports wagering. Money management is surely a concept foreign to them. Keep up the hard work, your write-ups and selections are ALWAYS much appreciated by the vast majority.
I do know that Ralph and thanks for taking the time to write. I post everyone's messages to be fair but they do not phase me in the least.
May 8, 2015 10:49:33
LOL to the previous posts. You've done fine by me in all your plays winners or losers. I will say one thing though, I keep thinking this bad stretch has to stop at some point and the day I layoff is the day you go perfect! It wasn't too long ago that Tuesday and Wednesday that you went 9-1 and I'm still playing with that money! Not bad for 2 really good days. We've managed to get out on weekends the last couple of weeks with a fairly good win ratio and cut losses to a minimum.. I'd just like to share this with you, I have stopped making my own plays (most times, sometimes the itch is too strong) I only play your games however what i do do is I take hockey for a 1 unit on whatever you play, i put a half unit on the the same team but either on the 60 minutes or OT included, whichever you didn't pick. I also play first 5 innings on baseball games you give us for the game, again 1 unit, half unit. If I'm feeling lucky I'll parlay your plays only into 3 & 4's depending on how many plays you give for 1/10 of a unit. So far it's worked, however i was already spending the winnings, so I'm a little deflated but still a firm believer! Keep up the great work! Just wanted to share.
Thanks Joe.
May 7, 2015 23:21:41
Hey Miggy, back home we call u a wanker, but here in Canada, your just a loser. Give up gambling my friend. When it gets this bad u need help. Whining and wanking, on a site where the man gives u free picks! Go to other sites and get the special lock of the year, for 100 dollars and don't worry! They will be giving u sure fire winners all spring on the nhl/nba/mlb etc..... ahh if it was that just that easy........
Thank you Tom. Nothing more needs to be said but I have to say Miggy's first hate mail was the first one I've received in almost a year. That in itself says things have been going pretty good for a while.
May 7, 2015 16:23:53
There goes 20 units of profits pissed away with another brutal stretch.
Another brutal stretch? It's been about a year since I've had as you call it a "brutal stretch". In fact, had you followed all my picks to a tee for the past year, you would be up over 100 units. It amazes me how you haters just sit there waiting for an opportunity to chip in a worthless comment when things are not going well. Sorry Dude, I'm not going to join you in your misery. The good news is that for every one loser like yourself, there are 25 really positive and smart readers that share info and thoughts with me and appreciate the info I provide. We all have the same goal, which is to make money. Your goal is mope in misery. Let me know how that works out for you.
May 7, 2015 13:26:56
At least you are smart enough to cut your losses to an 8 unit beat down backing the Wild in this series.
Kane is pain
At least.
May 7, 2015 12:38:29
Hi Brian, how would you recommend dealing with bankroll/units when on a losing streak? Since Mid April I've gone on a bit of a losing streak and my bankroll is down to 60% of what it was 3 weeks ago. Should I continue betting the same units? Or decrease if it goes down to 50? Thanks. My concern is my bet size will become 5% of my bankroll it the streak continues and goes down to 50% of my roll.
Chris: When on an inevitable losing streak, (after two days) I would suggest you cut your unit bet between 15 and 20% and continue to drop it at that same rate every day the losing streak is extended. If you win one day, go back up at the same rate (15 or 20%) until you win 2 days in a row and then go back to your original amount. If on the third day. Also apply that same theory to winning streaks to maximize your profits. Hope this helps and I hope you snap out of it soon.
May 6, 2015 18:36:12
I haven't had much luck with games when I take them -1.5. Even when I'm on the right side I lose about half of these wagers because the winning team only wins by a run. Does that happen to you often and have you considered abandoning that type of bet? Steve
It's more risky; no question about it Steve but the payout is worth the risk a lot of the times. I think you've probably run into some bad luck because only about 30% of games are decided by one run. Therefore, when you are on the winning side of these bets you should be winning about 14 out of every 20 games. Keep with it because if you are on the winning side so often it will pay off over time. The math says so.
May 6, 2015 16:26:02
Did I miss something? When did Habs and Bolts play game three? Last time I checked the series was 2-0 Tampa Bay. I don't care how much better one team is you can't win a best of seven series in three games. Maybe you know something the rest of us don't.
Marv G
That's my bad Marv. Not sure why I thought they were up 3-0 but after reading your post and looking back on the series, obviously I thought they were up 3-0. What's even more remarkable is that you're the only one that pointed this out.
May 6, 2015 15:03:34
Anyone new to the site should be advised to check out your year-to-date results. When you are 6 games under .500 and turning a profit of 60 units with those results, you are doing something right.
Thanks Joel.
May 3, 2015 15:38:51
Anthopolous really hung the Jays out to dry with their rotation. My summer sucks before it has even begun.
I really don't blame AA Magus. Jays have run into some injuries and it's too early to truly assess the staff. Norris looks like a good one, Dickey gives them a chance to win almost every game and Hutch is very decent. The Stroman injury is very difficult to overcome. Hang in there because the AL East is so even that there's a great chance the Jays will be in the race all summer and into the fall.
May 3, 2015 12:43:53
Just wondering on your thoughts on the Anaheim game?absolutely great job on your analysis of the games,,thanks
Sorry BK, was having trouble with my feed on these messages. It seems to be fine now.
May 3, 2015 12:26:42
NHL, the money is in totals right now, Tampa/ Montreal under and Calgary /Anaheim over every game
You hit the nail right on the head Tom. Great call
May 1, 2015 15:01:27
Gonna have to say Montreal in 7, and took them +102 for the series. This is going to be a great series, and as we have seen in the previous round (OTT vs MTL) the regular season stats for W L are irrelevant. I'm going to disagree with your pick for tonight on TB based on a couple of things. This is Tampa Bay's 6th game in 11 nights with plenty of travel. Tampa is a tired team, coming off an emotional Game 7 win on Wednesday, followed by an immediate 3 hour flight to Montreal. I don't think they take Game 1, but let's look at the rest of the series. If Price is Price and is in his Hart/Vezina form, then Montreal takes it, even with the sputtering offense of the Habs. Both powerplays are struggling. Price is going to steal games in this series, but so will Bishop. Tampa is pissed from last year, and they want revenge. They have a great offense but they're running into the team that had the least amount of goals allowed in the regular season. In that situation, I take the least amount of goals allowed if I have to pick, and I take Carey Price. Bishop shut the door when needed in Game 7, as did Price. But let's not forget, this is Ben Bishop's 8th playoff game. I think Montreal jumps on a tired Tampa team here, fresh off an emotional win, but it's gonna be a roller coaster. I like that the Habs have home ice, where Tampa was the best at this year, and I like the fact that the Habs have Carey Price, who knows when to shut er down with an average at best team. Thanks for reading, Canadiens in 7.
RV: With all due respect, I don't put a lot of emphasis on fatigue in the playoffs. These are young guys in their prime so 1 days rest is plenty when we're talking about playoffs. In the regular season fatigue can be applied but it cannot in the first game of a playoff round with a hungry team like TAMPA BAY. Doesn't mean they'll win but I'm not buying the angle. Best of luck in every other series and thanks for chipping in.
May 1, 2015 08:42:19
Love the Flames story but you're dead-on when it comes to Hiller. Ramo is a better option but still not a winning one. They'll take a game but Ducks are a near sure thing. I'm thinking Tampa holds some value on road with Habs but the series is a tossup. Best, as always!
Agree Magus, Ramo has to be in net for the rest of this series but like you say, it's likely not going to matter. Ducks got a big break when Calgary defeated the Canucks. As for TB/MON, not so sure that the series is a tossup but time will tell. Best of luck to you too.
Apr 30, 2015 22:29:56
Excellent work on the Caps. They have the 2 best players in the series and we need to stay on them since we didn't make a series play. They should win in 5 or 6, and be a dog for each game, so there is plenty of profit potential. Hindsight is 20-20, but we should have stayed with your original 3 plays today. When was the last time a team was doubled-up in the NBA? What a dreadful way to end the season for the Bucks. On their home court no less. Let's keep this rolling tomorrow!
Thanks Joel
Apr 30, 2015 16:20:05
What's your take on the Flames/Ducks series/game 1. Do you think the Flames have any value on them?
Eric: Sorry I didn't answer this before the series started last night but I didn't see it until this morning. However, had I seen any value on the Flames, I would have bet them last night and/or in the series. Calgary is a nice story but all year I've had big-time concerns about Jonas Hiller. Hiller is putrid and probably won't see another start in these playoffs. Had the Canucks stayed with Lack, we wouldn't even be discussing the Flames because Calgary would have lost Game 7.
Apr 27, 2015 17:37:23
Congrats are in order for this seasons' NHL betting record to date. And as for baseball, I love the video clips you posted on the Milw/Cinci game. Just goes to show what a quality site this is
Brian Hayward
Thank you Brian.
Apr 26, 2015 14:52:12
Any thoughts on ottawa montreal tonight? Thanks
Chris: Nobody can argue that Montreal is the better team. Had Ottawa scored in OT, this series would be over. Basically it's going to come down to goaltending, as Price is going to need a monster game for the Habs to win. He's done it before and he can surely do it again. With the Sens being a slight fav, I don't see any value whatsoever in either side. Hold a gun to my head I would absolutely play Ottawa cause I'm pretty damn sure they will outplay Montreal. A better bet might be to play Ottawa in the updated series price and if they should win tonight, you have a pretty sweet bet going into Game 7. Best of luck whatever you do.
Apr 26, 2015 14:34:02
Care to share your early season starting pitcher regression candidates from what you've seen in the first month?
Shane: That's an article that would take too much time and space to address here. If there are specific pitchers you are interested in hearing about, please email me and I can update you with more info. Otherwise, in my daily selections, you will see which pitchers are projected to regress and/or improve.
Apr 25, 2015 11:55:15
Can't express how relieved I am now after reading your picks. I love all three but was a little apprehensive until I read your comments. Thanks guys. Appreciate it... David
You're welcome Dave. Thanks for taking the time to write.
Apr 24, 2015 06:12:55
I know were in a bit of a rut but it happens. There was a point this month where I won 16 picks in a row, but then the evil losing streak comes haha. Anyway keep up the good work, we will be back in the black soon
Thanks RV.
Apr 23, 2015 16:57:28
With all due to respect to what Eddie Lack has done this season, As well as your educated decision to go with the Flames, the playoffs is a whole new game. I know you don't need to hear that you already know, however, I think the Canucks choosing Miller has everything to do with experience, a guy who has been there before and knows how to win. Personally, I think Canucks win and Miller will be solid. Not to shoot down your pick there I get the value part of it but road hiller vs home miller, the value isn't as real as it seems. Canucks roll 5-0.
Apr 23, 2015 08:59:10
Nice job guys. I just do a small wagering gig in Alberta, and stumbled across your site. There needs to be more solid leads like yourselves to bet sports like you guys, and for free yet. The ads are placed nicely, and I love how you get the Daily Fantasy gigs subtly in the write-ups. The write-ups and info are really, really good too. You guys got your shit together. Well played. Will continue to visit. Best of luck.
Motown Fisher
Thanks for the kind words Motown. Glad you found us and glad you enjoyed the content. Best of luck to you too.
Apr 22, 2015 22:04:56
Placed my last hockey bet for the season. You're not seeing things too well.
Nothing wrong with laying off Oshi. It's been a good year in the NHL for us but I still feel we're seeing things fine in terms of playing value. Winnipeg blew three-third period leads and the Senators lost three games decided by one-goal with two of those in OT. So many of these games are decided by pure luck (you either get the bounces or not) and those bounces have not been going our way the past week or so.
Apr 21, 2015 10:39:23
Would love to see your thoughts on why you laid off each playoff game or series (NHL & NBA).
Jason: if I don't see value, I don't bet them. I try and find the BEST value of the night and those are the games I play.
Apr 21, 2015 09:35:35
Hi B- Was wondering if you ever place correlated bets when laying runs/pucks or with ML picks? I.e. Betting pirates both -1/2 and -1.5, or betting Blackhawks ML along with -1/2 regulation. Maybe it makes more sense for baseball, as there are more runaway games with 6+ runs scored by one team than in hockey. Just a thought, love your write ups and way of hunting down value. Thanks for everything you do.
Will: What your referring to is NOT a correlated parlay. You are just asking if I bet both the ML and point spread and there are times that I do. There is nothing correlated about that. A correlated parlay means when one event happens, the other is also likely to take place. For instance, a correlated parlay would be Chicago -1½ over Nashville parlayed onto over 5½ in that same game. That's correlated because if Chicago happens to win by 1½ goals it's very likely to go over 5½. The reverse is also true...Nashville +1½ onto Nashville under 5½ is also correlated. Correlated parlays in football would be taking the dog and the under or the favorite and the over. Most books, in fact all of them that I know of do not allow you to make these bets because they have a high probability of cashing. NO SPORTSBOOK in the world will allow you to correlate an NHL game. Try betting Chicago and over tonight in the NHL and I guarantee you your bet will be refused. Anyway, thanks for bringing this topic up Will and best of luck to you too.
Apr 17, 2015 15:51:14
Hi Sherwood Are you still thinking of posting parlay plays? Have not seen any yet. Thanks
Yes, Craig, I definitely will start posting parlays as early as next week.
Apr 15, 2015 14:10:01
Love your picks today. Here's to a profitable playoffs...
Apr 14, 2015 12:15:55
Hello Sherwood. I was wondering if you ever consider betting the 1st 5 Inning lines in Baseball wagers? I find there is value at times when a team I like may fail with their suspect Bullpen. Keep up the awesome work!
Rob, I sometimes do and did quite a bit of it last year but in the long run it has neither proved more valuable or profitable so I pretty much stopped. You may think you have an edge but I found that it costs you as many games as it helps you. Besides, I play mostly on BETFAIR exchange now, so I'm able to buy back any liability after 5 innings (or any time) if my choice is leading.
Apr 14, 2015 10:01:02
Any series predictions for the NHL playoffs where you see value? Thinking of taking the Winnipeg Jets over Anaheim +136 in the upset, and Calgary +130 over Vancouver. Thoughts?
Chris: My NHL playoff series selections will be posted today (Tuesday) and Winnipeg will be among them. As for Calgary, I'm not sure there is value there, as the price seems about right so I'm likely going to wait on that series before doing anything. We'll have 3 series plays for sure and many individual games as well. BEST OF LUCK Chris.
Apr 11, 2015 11:41:07
Hi Sherwood, Do you ever parlay at all? Just curious if you do or not and why. I personally don't, I find it hard enough to win one game let alone 2-3 consecutively. Thanks buddy, and keep up the good work.
Chris: Everything I do is based on value and there is some in parlaying money line dogs. I often parlay ML dogs in baseball and hockey and I will be posting some of those in the very near future. Stay tuned and watch out for some baseball and NHL parlays appearing in today's picks over the next few weeks. It'll give you an idea of how to profit by wagering on parlays.
Apr 10, 2015 11:28:53
Hello Brian, David from Thornhill. Just wanted to introduce myself and to express my gratitude. You are very talented. I look forward to reading your posts daily. I truly feel that you are one of the best handicappers out there. Thanks again, Brian
David: I'm glad that you stopped in and said hello. I truly appreciate the kind words and the time you took to write to express your gratitude. It's messages like this that keeps me focused and working hard. All the best David. Stay in touch.
Apr 9, 2015 18:18:52
Hi, Brian Great start in mlb back to back days sweeping the board just awesome. I forgot to wager on one of your plays today it was the Tor @ Ny game. Would you still recommend me betting on the game the line is at -130 now 5dimes account or is all the value gone on that play? It seems like your best sport is mlb followed by nhl is this true? I like the fact that you play mostly dogs and small favorites in mlb. I think this is the only way you could beat the oddsmakers and be plus units at the end of the year. Also, I like that you are very selective in making plays and not betting every game you see. These scumbag handicapping services put out 8+ games a day mostly favorites and on top of that they don't even have their own money on the games. It makes me sick to my stomach how anybody that desperate could pay for plays when there are legit sportsbettors out there very few I may say on twitter or have their own website that are researching their plays and betting on them with their hard earned money and not asking for a dime. You are one of the few out there that do it the right way you put your money where your mouth is. If you ask me it doesn't get any better than that. Keep the winners coming! Thanks again for your dedication and hard work! Dan
Dan, Sorry I didn't respond before the Jays game, as I was out and couldn't get to it fast enough. In regards to your other comments, I very much appreciate the kind words and acknowledgement of the dedication I put in. MLB and NHL are definitely my favorite sports because of the money line value in them. The other sports have the great equalizer, which is the point spread and the bookmakers are worthy adversaries. Your letter hits on some key points in regards to tout services. Thanks for taking the time to write, as your letter made my day. Peace Dan and best of luck.
Apr 9, 2015 15:36:12
Congrats on a great night last night Brian, as always great picks and analysis! Keep up the good work. Much appreciated. Funny how the haters don't comment when you're doing well, but come out of the woodwork when you're on a losing skid lol.
Haters are really just miserable people that have nothing positive to add to anything but you're right, they completely disappear and look for someone else to rag on when things are going well. Thanks for the kind words RV and you're very welcome. Best of luck.
Apr 9, 2015 14:49:54
Do you see significant value in taking the Flames tonight? Kings are playing 4th game in 6 nights and seems like fatigue may really be setting in on them. Calgary at home is sure to come out stronger than ever, Hartley has pushed these guys so hard it would just be wrong if they weren't able to clinch on home ice against the only team left possible to catch them.
Eric: If you see value, then you should bet it. I don't see it. For one, I can't stand Hiller. He's garbage. Secondly, LA coming off bad loss in EDM and will surely be better tonight. All the advanced stats say LA is a powerhouse while Calgary is a fringe playoff team or worse. Lastly, Kings coach Darryl Sutter would rather beat Flames than make playoffs, that's how much he hates that organization. I'm not interested in fading Kings with their lives on the line against a vastly inferior foe.
Apr 9, 2015 11:48:33
According to Larry Brooks, Nash, Zuccarrello, and Staal will all sit tonight. As of now Ottawa is plus money at +110. Thoughts?
I'm on it R. See write-up today
Apr 6, 2015 18:48:48
Props to you Sherwood, as I was incorrect on my Sharks analysis. Goaltending was their nemesis in their latest loss. You called it all year with that team and I guess I got a little over excited with their last run. Anyways, keep up the good work and great pick on dallas tonight. As well as Wisconsin, another solid pick of yours. Excited to see your picks in the playoffs.
Thank you Eric.
Apr 6, 2015 18:05:02
I'm a little surprised you are not on the Sabres tonight. Being asked to lay -185 with the NHLs 4th worst road team seems ludicrous. Maybe Vegas is being influenced by the "tank" talk, but anyone who has been paying attention would know the Sabres coach and players are using the local media and fans desire to finish 30th as motivation to win these remaining games. They certainly could lose, but +160 at home is good value.
You nailed it Joel.
Apr 5, 2015 18:08:32
Brian: I saw value today in taking the flyers over the penguins as home dogs. Looking back over the series so far this year, the flyers have won the previous 3 games (I know you dont like people writing in after the game is over, but I liked the flyers before the game began. I just didnthave time to write this before. You will have to trust me on this one) your comments on the game?
Paul: I saw some value too but the fact that Philly defeated Pitt every game this year made me back off. It is so difficult for one team to defeat another 6 times in a season and Philly is not the better team. Incidentally, Pitt outshot Philly 47-20 so if you did bet Philly, consider the money a gift because they Pens dominated from start to finish.
Apr 5, 2015 13:59:20
Hi Sherwood, I know you say the betting sites on your website are very reputable and I believe that, as I use one with no issues. Having said that, I only have a few hundred dollars in there. Have there been any bad stories of people not getting paid out from Pinnacle with large withdrawals? Say in the thousands? Just curious, as I'm looking to up my ante, but want security. Thanks
John: You will have no issues whatsoever with Pinnacle or any other sponsors on my site. You can win in the 10's of thousands or 20x that and not have a problem at all. I personally guarantee all my sponsors and will go on record as saying I would personally pay you all winnings if they did not. You need not be concerned. Thanks for writing and best of luck.
Apr 5, 2015 11:00:43
Hi Sherwood. How do you think Tiger Woods will do at the Masters? Is there any value on betting him to win or is he done?
Tim: Tiger Woods has no chance whatsoever. He's lost it and he's lost it badly. If he had to qualify for the event, he would not be able to do so. You have a way better chance of betting against him (to not make the final cut after two days), or head to head than you do of betting on him. Tiger Woods should be 1000-1 to win because that's about his chances. I'm serious too. Don't waster your money. The networks love that he's playing and they'll try and spruce up his chances and make it "The Tiger Show" because he attracts so many viewers and interest. Don't get caught up in it. He can't putt anymore and he can't drive with accuracy anymore either.
Apr 4, 2015 15:21:58
With all due respect, and you know I'm one of your biggest supporters, it's not the players who have embraced the tank in Arizona but rather the management and (maybe) the coaching staff. So what makes them, and the Sabres, a questionable wager at any price is the fact that the team on the ice has been assembled for the purpose of losing. So while the players will give their all, they just are so disadvantaged they really don't have a chance. If it sounded like I was saying the players are in on it, then I'm sorry for the suggestion. Best of luck going forward.
That's a different angle that makes a lot more sense Joel. It's also very true, especially so since the deadline. Best of luck to you too, Joel
Apr 4, 2015 12:42:54
Alright fair enough that commenting after the result was in was not very credible. I Watched the game and the Sharks were typical sharks. Exploded in the first period, 2 quick goals, than virtually slacked off and went to sleep. I disagree that goaltending has been an issue as Niemi most nights has done all he can to keep them in games. The team in front of him is what the issue was. I still think they've turned a corner barely and are dangerous, I just believe they went up 2-0 and got caught looking to the next one. Gotta give some credit to them as they didn't roll over so quickly despite a terrible year on and off the ice. But as for today, I love the blue jackets pick. No introductions needed with that team, pretty crazy role they're on. I think detroit has value with datsyuk a potential go but I get the risks that come with them and facing the Wild. As for a long bomb, I wouldnt be surprised to see the Leafs stun the Bruins tonight. A lot of chalk there and these guys have had a good week finally. Bruins are a shaky team despite their recent record. Long shot, but worth a shot, for what it's worth.
That's fair.
Apr 4, 2015 10:45:26
The Sabres players are trying to stick it to the "fans" who have been cheering against them at recent home games. In the past week they have been playing with more passion and enthusiasm than they demonstrated all season. Arizona's players, on the other hand, appear to have embraced the idea of 30th place. They have not won in regulation since Feb 3.
Enough already about this ridiculous conversation. Arizona hasn't won in reg since Feb 3rd because they are crap. To give you an idea of how crap they are, Keith Yandle is their leading scorer and he was traded long ago. Suggesting these guys are tanking is ludicrous because should they get a "great player" or two in the draft it would mean some of these other guys will be riding buses and playing in the minors next year. Think about that. The choice for the players is play hard and try and secure my spot on the roster next year or tank and spend the year in the minors eating peanut butter and jelly sandwiches. If they were tanking, they would not be close. What, you think they are saying, let's lose 2-1 in OT or 3-2 and make it close? Give your head and shake and think about what you are saying. It's fucking ludicrous to suggest they are losing on purpose. Seriously. CONVERSATION OVER! I will not comment on this subject again.
Apr 4, 2015 04:57:22
Just to add to that comment below, the Buffalo Sabres made it very clear last week, after their overtime loss to the Coyotes, that the players have absolutely nothing to do with "tanking". It's an annoying term, even though I wont deny that it does happen it is all based on the owners and upper management. So I would never use tanking as a reason not to take value, after all, the Sabres came right back and beat Arizona in Arizona, and came very close to beating Chicago last night. As for the Coyotes pick, although it was only one unit I still think that pick was not very good at all. Given the Sharks recent surge and their slim (but realistic) playoff hopes on the line, if they were going to lose to Arizona it would be the back half of the home and home. Agree? I think 2 units on Sharks -1.5 in this spot would've been worth more than the 'Yotes. Sharks are dangerous, they're trying to set up that finale with the Kings with as much meaning as possible and until its officially over, i'd recommend backing them till the final game.
Eric: With all due respect, I would make that same bet almost every time because of the extreme value on it. San Jose cannot be priced in that range. Incidentally, Arizona was down 2-1 with 7 minutes remaining and they also had a goal disallowed in the first. The first star of that game was Antti Niemi so anyone that laid -277 was sweating bullets, while I had a smile on my face, thinking it was going to pay off and wishing I had wagered 2 units instead of 1. Incidentally, San Jose had 6 PP opportunities in that game last night while the "Yotes had NONE. San Jose is not dangerous. They are a soft group that rarely wins when it counts most and I would not recommend backing them from here on in because of that. They also have weak goaltending on most nights. It's very easy to play results and sending me a message after the game is final is weak. Had Arizona won and they damn well could have, this message would not have been written. You have an opinion on game you want to share or comment on? Do so before it starts and not when it's over. By the way, I think Colorado was a good bet last night.
Apr 3, 2015 12:29:22
One unit sounds about right for the Coyotes wager. Having said that, they on the brink of securing a franchise player so it wouldn't be at all surprising to see them lose out the rest of the season. Their most recent effort, a decisive home defeat to Buffalo suggests they may be finished winning games this season. Looking forward to your NCAA selections. I really like both favorites.
Joel: I have to disagree about the Coyotes. No team tanks on purpose. Buffalo could have lost on purpose to Toronto this past week but they didn't. If Phoenix didn't tank against Detroit or BUFFALO last week in Buffalo, why would they tank now? They could have sealed that last place finish long ago if they were intent on tanking. That loss to Buffalo was just that, a loss. Not saying they are going to win tonight but I am saying they will be trying.
Apr 3, 2015 08:46:16
That moment where you're so used to betting 2 units (dollar amount) then you accidentaly bet 6 units thinking its 3. Ah well hoping the Yankees win less than 82 games lol.
Amen to that Rob and to Tanaka blowing out his elbow very early.
Apr 2, 2015 16:03:04
Hey Sherwood - If you could only bet one sport not based on favorite but what you feel you would make the most profit in what would it be? Nice baseball run . Looking forward to the season.
Without hesitation, I would choose baseball followed by NHL.
Apr 1, 2015 14:21:45
Just returned from The Rampart casino here in Vegas and bet the Yankees under 82.5 with juice of -110. I could have chosen 83 at -105 but didn't. I tried to bet the TX Rangers there a week ago and they had no line. Tried again today and "No line". ThePalms yesterday had the Rangers at 74 1/2. I passed.
Mick Maguire
Hmmm, why didn't you choose 83 -105? It's a better number with less juice? I'm thinking you probably wrote that wrong Mick. In any case, I'm very confident that you have a winning bet there. As for the Rangers, I had a strong inclination that number would drop because it was a bad line (hugely favorable number) at 78½ or 76½. Best of luck Mick.
Mar 31, 2015 15:15:30
Hey Sherwood, just wondering why you're not keen on Tampa -0.5, -120 tonight in Toronto vs. the Leafs with Reimer going. I know Tampa recently clinched a playoff spot by beating Montreal, but still plenty to play for as only 1 point behind Montreal and tied with the Rangers for the lead in the Eastern Conference. Tampa is resting Bishop tonight, but Vasilevskiy is 3-1 in March with a .934 save percentage, and Stamkos is always pumped to play in his hometown. Thoughts?
Brent Walter
It's not a bad wager at all Brent. Personally, I don't like the spot for Bolts after defeating Montreal again and I really don't like spotting a half puck and juice on the road. That said, I expect Tampa to win easy but that's an opinion only. No value there.
Mar 31, 2015 00:35:24
Sherwood, you are correct again on the Flames. Geez I live in Calgary and cannot put down money on this group. My mistake. Bob Hartley is an excellent coach and has his group always primed, this team plays hard every night. Great calls all year Sherwood
In your defense Tom, Calgary got lucky last night and every time I bet the Flames with Hiller in net, it takes me about two weeks to get over it. From his "mask" to his style, to the way he moves on his knees, I swear he looks like a 10-year-old kid out there sometimes. Still, the team has offered up tremendous value all year and certainly weren't lucky against Nashville on Monday. Sometimes the toughest bet is with or against the team from the city you live in and sometimes the easiest bet is for or against the team from the city you live in. Thanks for writing Tom.
Mar 30, 2015 09:22:06
I'll be watching the webinar this Wed! Only problem is I'm in Florida and Betfair doesn't seem to allow accounts from the US. Can I adapt your "free roll" techniques to work in the traditional live betting area of regular sportsbooks? If so, which one(s) do you recommend?
You can use it Dolfan but it's not as effective because the traditional sportsbooks take the games off the board during live play and put up adjusted lines during timeouts, commercials and intermissions while BETFAIR's markets are live the entire game and never come off the board. I'm really not sure which sportsbooks allow US players other than 5DIMES. They are a great sportsbook that I use but I don't use any of the traditional one's for live betting so therefore I cannot recommend any. Anyway, hope to see you Wednesday at the WEBINAR.
Mar 28, 2015 10:11:33
Going back to the end of February I think we're 1 for 7 wagering on the Flames. They were a nice story, but the season is slipping away from them and it appears the loss of Giordano has caught up to them. I think we'd be throwing good money after bad chasing them down the stretch.
Everyone keeps writing this team off and I have no idea why. If Hiller wasn't in net, I would play them today against Nashville because of value. Don't sell them short Joel. Been saying that all year. Best of luck
Mar 26, 2015 15:41:14
Quick question, for the rangers you mentioned you liked the under most of the time but last year you hit the Brewers over. Do you still look at overs or just focus on under value?
I did mention that Michael and as you recall, I had Atlanta under last year too. I mentioned that if you're going to play an over, be sure the number is favorable and that's the only reason I played Milwaukee last year. For season totals in any sport, I ALWAYS look for unders because it's much easier to find value in them. When I'm studying the unders, I also look at over the total as well but it REALLY has to stick out for me to play it over.
Mar 25, 2015 15:20:36
Thanks for posting the Notre Dame pick early. If you have already decided, would you mind posting your picks for Friday before the first tip tomorrow. I might want to parlay your selections for this round of games if there are going to be multiple selections.
No promises Joel but I will do my best to post all games before Thursday's tip-off. Best of luck.
Mar 25, 2015 08:42:21
Sherwood: I can't thank you enough for your generosity of your time in running the NBA webinars. Last night, I started with a $9 bet on Milwaukee to beat Miami. I put your strategy to work and was free rolling very early. Anyway to make a long story short, at one point, after "switching" several times I was free rolling for $28 on Miami and Milwaukee went to 12-1. As per your strategy, I wagered the full $28 on Milwaukee and wouldn't you know it, they hit a shot at the buzzer to win it 89-88 and I cashed out $336 for a $6 bet. Your strategy is brilliant and it has worked for me on many other games as well. Thanks again Sherwood.
Thanks for taking the time to let me know Chazz. Seems like a few people did very well on that game. More importantly, stick with it and learn it and you'll do well every week in basketball and football. Your message made my day. Keep it going!
Mar 23, 2015 12:13:32
Hey Sherwood, I usually agree with you and have done very well shadowing your bets while researching mine, but today I have to strongly disagree with the analysis of the Ottawa-San Jose game. First, lets be real, the Sharks are dead, they are a very average group of forwards with a decent defense corps and a terrible goalie. They have 3 better teams then them to leapfrog and 6 points to make up. Ottawa is a top 10 offensive team in the NHL for the season. Living in Ottawa, I follow them very closely for betting purposes, and yes they have been erratic in goal the last 3 games but they still find ways. Hammond is a flash in the pan, he may be an average #1 goalie but he's no superstar. Ottawa's +19 in goal differential and that includes the terrible stretch from November to January under Paul McClean. There is little value in betting an ice cold team who is only coasting to the offseason vs a team as battle tested as the Senators. But you are right, the Sens in this game are overvalued and I wouldn't lay a half puck to get close to even money. This is a one goal game brewing. Sorry for the long winded answer and keep up the fantastic work.
Thank you Pete. I always respect those that comment before a game as oppose to after it. Living in Ottawa, I'm sure you have a better feel for the Sens than I do (unless you're a fan of course) so I have to appreciate what you said. However, judging by their play of late, I don't agree that the Sharks have quit and at the very worst, they surely want to make life miserable for a team trying to get in. We shall see soon enough. Thanks very much for the message, the kind words and the support.
Mar 23, 2015 06:52:14
Great work on Louisville yesterday. I heard a "vegas insider" on the radio yesterday call for a Northern Iowa win, and remembered that you have been telling us all year that the Panthers were overrated. Sure enough, an hour or so later the L'Ville pick was up on the site. Looking forward to continued success in the Sweet 16 and beyond.
Thanks Joel. Still reeling/steamed a bit about Saturday but yesterday was a decent bounce back day. Should have had Duke yesterday as well but I missed it. Anyway, thanks for writing and best of luck to you too Joel.
Mar 21, 2015 11:26:45
Hi, I've been doing live betting since you let us know about it and I know you're looking at situations where an early lead can be bet against at high odds. Smart. Just wondering if you ever do this at lower odds. I played Cleveland at home after Brooklyn got up 13 points very early. I got 1.44 and it just seemed like free money. It's worked a few other times as well. Am I being stupid? Derek
Derek: There are several ways of approaching that live betting market and if that works for you I would urge you to continue doing what your doing. If you're making money, you are definitely not being stupid but you'll have to see if your model works over a longer period before it can be classified as being profitable. Let me know from time to time how you're doing Derek. I think your model can work too because when favorites fall behind they always go on a run to take a lead and once they take a small lead, you are in good position.
Mar 20, 2015 17:26:41
Hi Sherwood, I have participated in a couple of your online tutorials for Betfair, and have opened an account. I\'m having trouble finding the site you were using to get the most up to date scores .... I thought it was \"flashscore\", but that doesn\'t seem to be it. Please advise when you get a chance. Thanks in advance, Brent
Here's the link Brent: Best of luck and let me know how you're making out.
Mar 16, 2015 17:11:29
Love your write-ups that are quite compelling and love to pound em . Now for the Mayweather , Pacquiao fight . Pinny -200 ,Bet 365 -200 . Because the big juice I'am now Parlaying my bets to Mayweather . Your thoughts would be appreciated .
patrick smith
Patrick: Mayweather might be the most arrogant athlete in the history of pro sports. He never takes a fight that he is 100% sure he's going to win. This fight should have happened 6 years ago but Mayweather wasn't 100% sure he could win 6 years ago so he didn't sign. Now it's nothing more than a big spectacle and a cash grab. It's more hype than substance but I would have to agree that Mayweather is quicker and in much better form. Dude hasn't been hit in 10 years while Pacquiao has been battered, bruised and hit in the head over and over during his last few fights. My guess is that Mayweather will win because he would not get in the ring if he thought he had even a 1% chance of losing.
Mar 15, 2015 22:10:53
Hey Sherwood, huge fan of your site and hard work. Gotta say this is my favorite of the time as March Madness rolls around. Just a quick note to mention that I wish you had some sort of pool or bracket contest. Keep up the good work and hope you enjoy the tourney as much as I do.
Thanks Al. I ran a brackets pool last year and the response was not very good so I skipped it this year. I suppose it's because there are literally thousands of other Bracket pools. We are however, running a free Fantasy Baseball with cash prizes and anyone interested can see the details in the "Pools" section of this site. Enjoy the Madness Al and best of luck.
Mar 14, 2015 11:01:46
Correct the red text on your St Louis/Minnesota prediction today - you're taking the Wild but it says St Louis at the top of the write-up.
Thanks Dave
Mar 14, 2015 09:49:57
We deserved better last night. A couple of tough losses on the hardwood that we were definitely on the right side of. Looking forward to those bounces evening out. Perhaps as soon as today. I was little surprised that UAB didn't make the card yesterday. I recall that you were quite bullish on them earlier this season.
Florida had two open looks on Kentucky with 4 seconds left. One of them goes down and that's a winner instead of a loser. Ditto with Tennessee and VCU. Philly goes into OT with Chicago and loses by 9 after we took 7½. These aren't isolated games. This stuff happens every night. Of those 4 games, luck was the deciding factor in all of them. We could have gone 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1 or 4-0 so any tout that says they can hit 70% is so full of crap that it's not funny. It's virtually impossible. It's like saying you can flip a coin and hit 70% tails over a million flips. It's for that reason we always stress value Joel because 80-90% of all games are nothing but pure luck. I laid off the last couple of days of college because we weren't getting the bounces. Hopefully we'll get some bounces in the tourney and some easy winners too. Thanks for writing Joel.
Mar 10, 2015 12:41:11
Just wondering why no interest in BYU tonight, SportSelect has them at +9.5?
I pay no attention to Sport Select. They are often way off on lines and it's their mistake not a mistake by Vegas oddsmakers so Sport Select line means jack. BYU just defeated the Zags recently and this time the Zags will take them a little more seriously. Last time they played, only about 2 weeks ago, BYU was getting 12 points. The value on them tonight is gone.
Mar 8, 2015 04:24:01
Brian : I had quit Betfair years ago. Last night I re joined with excellent service from them. Went thru your web site again . Looking forward to this coming Monday March 16th. Again thanks fo