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Posted at 12:00 AM EST (Friday). Odds subject to change.

UFC 304

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Wager: Leon Edwards by TKO/KO (+275 at Pinnacle & SportsInteraction)

12:15 AM EST. In the wee hours of Sunday morning in Manchester, England, hometown hero Leon "Rocky" Edwards will look to defend his belt for the third time. His opponent, Belal "Remember the Name" Muhammad, is an extremely formidable contender. The 36-year old from Chicago, Illinois finally gets his shot at UFC gold, an opportunity he's long deserved. Muhammad is riding a 9-bout winning streak heading into Saturday night, a rare mark for any UFC fighter, and he's become known for wearing down his opponents, closing distance and showing little to no fear of his enemy's prowess. For the most part it's worked - he's only lost 3 fights over a 12-year professional career - but it's Belal's confidence that could make him extremely vulnerable against a champion like Leon Edwards. Belal will be noted as the better grappler, but Edwards is extremely overrated in takedown and grappling defense.

Leon Edwards is a champion's champion. The dude earned the belt after KO head-kicking one of the great UFC champions in history. Following that win, he humbly accepted a rematch against Usman and pieced him up for 5 rounds. Muhammad beat up on more than a few notable names in the UFC, guys like Gilbert Burns, Sean Brady, Vincent Luque, and Stephen Thompson, but it does not compare to Edwards. Rocky enters Saturday with a 12-fight win streak that saw him out-boxing and conquering some of the biggest names in MMA, top-tier martial artists like Colby Covington, Nate Diaz, Rafael dos Anjos, Gunnar Nelson, and Donald Cerrone (in 2018, aka Cowboy's prime). No victory was more impressive than his domination of Colby Covington. The loud-mouth American is known for his incredible gas-tank and high-volume striking, a style that mirrors Belal's in many ways, but Leon out-classed him in every category. 

Normally we look to fade any team or athlete that's getting too much hype, but that's not the case in this matchup. Individual sports demand a different kind of handicapping, and in this instance oddsmakers are not giving Edwards enough credit. He calls himself Rocky out of his love for the character, but his boxing lives up to the hype, packing two dynamic, powerful weapons that might be the best striking combo in all of the UFC. He's also smooth defensively and technically precise. The one asterisk on both fighter's resume is the "no-contest '' that occured between the two in 2021; an accidental eye-poke by Edwards ended the bout. But it's important to remember - Leon looked bigger, fully resisted Muhamma's wrestling, and he landed 11 more significant strikes in the first round. Muhammad is levels above most welterweights, but he is not above Edwards. We'll bet against Belal's overconfidence to ultimately result in disaster.

Farley

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