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Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kansas City -2½ over Detroit

Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

8:20 PM ET. This is the first meeting between the Chiefs and Lions since Detroit famously crashed the Arrowhead party in Week 1 of 2023. Since then, the Lions have been a machine against the spread, going 51-21-1 (71%) in regular-season games dating back to 2021. They’ve also won-and-covered each of their last four meetings, with three of those four games flying over the total. Historically, fading a team off a big win is a profitable angle, but not with Dan Campbell’s crew — the Lions are 21-5 ATS following a victory of seven points or more.

That said, this isn’t the same Kansas City team that hoarded confidence on the back of a Super Bowl. The Chiefs entered the season 2-3, and Monday night’s 31-28 loss to Jacksonville exposed cracks across the board. Chris Jones was roasted after failing to chase down Trevor Lawrence on a key scramble, and Kansas City’s defense has looked vulnerable when it matters most. The lesson from last week: they can still get exposed.

Offensively, though, Patrick Mahomes and company are in a class of their own. The key here is their ability to absorb pressure and adjust against elite defenses. Detroit’s hot streak — 161 points over four wins, Jared Goff leading the league with 12 TD passes — is impressive, but the Chiefs have faced similar high-octane attacks before and prevailed. History also offers perspective: Detroit’s last trip to Arrowhead in 2023 ended with a 21-20 win, but that was against a rested, defending Super Bowl team. Kansas City at home in primetime is a different animal.

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