Pinnacle    +5½  -110     BET365  +5½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +5½ -110  888port  +5½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Chicago +5½ over Washington FedEx Field – Landover, MD

8:15 PM ET. It’s funny how short the market’s memory is. Twelve months ago, these same two teams met on a Monday night that turned into one of the cruelest gut-punches in recent Bears history. Chicago led with 25 seconds left, only to lose on a Hail Mary that will live forever in blooper reels. Fast forward to now, and we’re right back in the same spot — only the market wants to pretend last year’s collapse means something today. It doesn’t.

Washington opened as a four-point favorite, but the number has crept up, meaning the betting public is once again convinced the Commanders are a legitimate NFC force. Why? Because they beat the Chargers? Because Jayden Daniels is “back”? The hype train is already out of control. The Commanders’ win in L.A. was fine, not impressive — the Chargers look broken, and Washington still produced fewer than 350 yards of offense against a defense that can’t stop anyone.

We’re not denying that Washington is better coached and structurally improved under Dan Quinn, but laying nearly a touchdown with this roster is rich. Deebo Samuel’s banged up, Terry McLaurin is still out, and the offensive line is one injury away from crisis mode. When you strip away the noise, this is still a middle-of-the-pack team built on the illusion of defensive pressure and a quarterback who’s yet to face sustained adversity.

Chicago, meanwhile, comes off a bye, rested, and under the radar. The new regime has this group playing disciplined football — they’re 2-2 with both wins coming on the road — and Caleb Williams is showing poise that doesn’t show up in box scores. The Bears’ defense is still a work in progress, but they’re getting healthier, with Kyler Gordon returning and the secondary finally resembling something coherent.

This line suggests the Commanders are comfortably better. They’re not. Chicago’s offense isn’t efficient yet, but they can hang in games, especially against a team like Washington that’s more reputation than result. Caleb Williams has the arm talent to exploit a vulnerable secondary and extend plays against a blitz-heavy front that tends to overcommit.

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