Pinnacle    +3½ -105     BET365  +3½ -105   Sportsinteraction  +3½ -105  888port  +3½ -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Atlanta +3½ -105 over Buffalo

Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, GA

7:15 PM ET. Buffalo’s been sitting atop the power rankings for weeks now, but if you’ve watched closely, the cracks are starting to show. Last week’s 23–20 loss to New England wasn’t some fluke — it was a red flag. The Patriots out-physicaled the Bills at the line of scrimmage, controlled time of possession, and made Josh Allen look mortal. It was Buffalo’s first loss of the year, but the way it happened speaks volumes. Now the market expects an instant bounce-back on Monday night. We’re not buying it.

The Bills haven’t lost back-to-back games in over a year, so naturally, the knee-jerk reaction is that “they won’t lose two in a row.” That’s the kind of logic that sportsbooks love. The truth is, Buffalo’s margin for error is shrinking. The injuries are piling up — Matt Milano, Dalton Kincaid, Damar Hamlin, and multiple pieces of their defensive rotation are either ruled out or banged up — and they’re running into a rested, confident Falcons team that does all the little things right.

Atlanta quietly leads the NFL in total defense. Yes, you read that correctly. They’re physical, well-coached, and have a front seven that gets home without having to blitz. Head coach Raheem Morris has this group playing fast, tackling soundly, and dictating pace. That’s a formula that travels — and plays especially well at home in primetime.

Offensively, the Falcons’ young backfield tandem of Bijan Robinson and Michael Penix Jr. gives them balance and unpredictability. Penix doesn’t have to be Superman; he just has to protect the ball and move the chains. That’s exactly the kind of approach that frustrates Buffalo, who want a track meet, not a grind.

The market is pricing this like Buffalo will flip the switch and roll. That’s wishful thinking. The Bills are the public side, the shiny toy everyone’s rushing to back after one off week. Atlanta, meanwhile, is coming off a bye, sitting at home with two weeks to prepare for this exact opponent. That’s a massive situational edge.

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