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Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegas -4½ over Tennessee

4:05 PM EST. Tennessee is 1–4 straight up and 2–3 against the number, and last week’s road “win” in Arizona was pure smoke and mirrors. If Cardinals running back Emari Demercado doesn’t drop the ball on the goal line, the Titans are down three touchdowns and we’re talking about how Brian Callahan might not make it to Halloween. Instead, Tennessee backers are busy patting themselves on the back for cashing a ticket that had no business getting there. One lucky break doesn’t change who this team is, a thin roster, an uninspiring scheme, and a quarterback who still looks like he’s trying to find his dorm room.

Enter Cam Ward, the latest face in the revolving door of Titans quarterbacks. Ward looks like the guy who showed up at training camp because his Uber dropped him off at the wrong stadium. He’s athletic, sure, but every throw looks like a coin flip between a highlight and a hospital ball. Last week, Ward had more scrambles than completions that mattered, and somehow the scoreboard made him look heroic. That’s the magic of playing the Arizona Cardinals — everyone gets a participation ribbon.

Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t fooled anyone. They’re coming off a humiliating loss, thus, their stock has hit rock bottom. They’ve dropped four straight and failed to cover in all of them. Their offense has been a turnover magnet and their defense has been gassed since Labor Day but when a 1–4 team that can’t get out of its own way is laying 4½ points, you can bet the line isn’t about who’s better, it’s about who the public will overrate next. Vegas doesn’t hand out “free” money, and the Titans’ miracle win last week just inflated a balloon that’s ready to pop.

Pete Carroll might be the most optimistic motherf***er on the planet. The man could be down 28-3, and he’s still chewing his gum like he’s in a Juicy Fruit commercial, clapping his hands in white pants that could guide ships into port. He’ll strut into practice this week with that bounce in his step, talking about “great energy” and “building momentum” after losing by four touchdowns. That’s just Pete — eternally upbeat, even when his team looks like it needs a priest instead of a playbook.

You think we like laying points with the Raiders? We don’t. Nobody does but we like betting against teams built on illusion even less. Tennessee’s win was a fluke, their quarterback is a human wild card, and their confidence is misplaced. The Raiders are bad, but the Titans are worse and the market hasn’t caught up yet. Recommendation: Raiders -4½

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