Pinnacle    +9½ -110   BET365  +9½ -110   Sportsinteraction  +9½ -110 888port  +9½ -110

Posted at 8:00AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Arizona +9½ over Indianapolis

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN

1:00 PM ET. We’ll take the points. We’ll take the chaos. And we’ll gladly step in front of the “feel-good” Colts machine that the market can’t get enough of. The narrative around Indianapolis is spotless. Daniel Jones resurrecting his career. A 4-1 record. Blowout wins. Historical scoring pace. It’s the kind of story that makes casual bettors line up to lay a touchdown and think it’s easy money.

Yet beneath the shine, this number is dripping with inflation. The Colts beat the Raiders and Panthers — two teams circling the drain — then caught Las Vegas in a flat spot and blew the doors off them. Credit where it’s due: Jones has looked competent and confident. But when everything is going right, that’s exactly when the market turns on you.

The Colts have been living clean, maybe too clean, and now they’re laying more than a converted touchdown against a team coming off a humiliating loss. That’s a dangerous combination. Arizona is an easy team to dismiss right now, which is precisely why we want them. They blew a 97.5% win probability against Tennessee, coughed up a sure touchdown at the goal line, and somehow lost 22–21. That sort of collapse burns deep. It also sharpens a locker room. You don’t lose a game like that and come out flat the next week.

Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett under center, this is still a capable Cardinals offense with weapons and experience. Brissett is not some deer-in-headlights backup — he’s a veteran who spent four years in that same Indy locker room. He knows the playbook, he knows that defense, and he knows exactly how to manage a game like this. The Colts’ stock couldn’t be higher, and the Cardinals’ couldn’t be lower. That’s the point. We’re buying Arizona at its absolute low. You can’t fake desperation, and the Cards have plenty of it. Teams coming off backbreaking losses tend to play tighter, smarter, and more controlled football the next week — especially when being spotted this kind of head start.

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