Posted Friday at 2:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 12

NY Jets +7 over Denver

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England

9:30 PM. There’s a universal truth in this racket: when a team looks “too easy,” it almost never is. That’s where we are with the Denver Broncos, who are fresh off their Super Bowl–sized scalp over Philadelphia and now being asked to lay a converted touchdown overseas against the winless New York Jets. If that doesn’t set off alarms, it should.

 

Public perception is doing all the heavy lifting here. Denver’s stock couldn’t be higher — back-to-back wins, a rookie quarterback everyone suddenly loves, and a feel-good storyline about “momentum” and “turning the corner.” It’s the type of narrative that gets priced in, and we can see that in neon lights with this inflated number. Bo Nix is being asked to travel across the Atlantic, give up seven points, and play his third straight emotionally charged game. That’s a lot to ask of a first-year signal caller who threw for just 60 yards last week on 25 attempts.

 

The Broncos’ win over Philadelphia was deserved but fluky — the product of turnovers, short fields, and a defense playing out of its mind for 60 minutes. Now they’re in a completely different situation: early morning start time, neutral site, and a desperate opponent who has been close in multiple games. The Jets are 0–5, but two of those losses came by a combined four points. They’ve been competitive; they just haven’t finished.

 

Let’s not forget the trend that matters most: since 2000, winless teams playing as road underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time. Why? Because desperation is a hell of an equalizer. The Jets aren’t mailing this one in — they’re staring down a season-defining opportunity to quiet the noise, away from the New York media circus, in an environment where they can finally breathe.

 

Justin Fields has quietly been serviceable despite the chaos around him. He threw for 283 yards and two scores last week against Dallas while Breece Hall ripped off 113 on the ground. The Jets moved the ball; they just made killer mistakes in key moments. Clean those up even marginally, and this line is absurd.

 

Meanwhile, Denver’s been living off a defense that’s due for correction. They’ve forced turnovers at an unsustainable rate, and regression on that side of the ball is lurking. Combine that with a jet-lagged rookie QB, a bloated spread, and a classic letdown setup after an emotional high, and we’ve got the perfect storm. Recommendation: NY Jets +7

 

 

Seattle over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. The Jaguars are 4-1, and everyone suddenly wants to believe. They’ve won three in a row, beat the Chiefs on Monday night, and have a quarterback saying all the right things about “handling success.” That’s cute, but it’s also the setup for a letdown.

 

Jacksonville is playing on a short week after an emotional, high-variance win in prime time. They needed a defensive touchdown, a circus pick-six from Devin Lloyd, and a last-second scramble TD from Trevor Lawrence just to get past Kansas City. Now, with one less day to prepare and a cluster of injuries to key contributors—Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten, Dyami Brown, Travon Walker—this outfit is being asked to flip the emotional switch and do it again against a physical, veteran opponent.

 

Seattle, meanwhile, just lost a gut-punch game in Tampa where everything went right until it didn’t. The Seahawks put up 35, Darnold threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and they controlled long stretches of that game. One fluke deflection off a lineman’s helmet was the difference between heartbreak and a 4-1 start. That’s variance, not form.

 

The Seahawks’ front seven remains elite against the run—third in the league, allowing just 83 yards per game—and that’s exactly the kind of profile that gives Jacksonville trouble. Lawrence has already turned the ball over six times this season, and now he’s missing his safety blanket tight end against a defense that thrives on pressure.

 

Seattle has already proven it can travel east and handle business, having won in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Darnold’s growing comfort with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is no small thing either—the duo has been nearly unstoppable, and they now face a Jags secondary ranked 27th against the pass.

 

This is a bad spot for Jacksonville and a perfect one for Seattle. The Jags are fat and happy after a primetime upset, the public is fully on board, and the Seahawks come in as the steadier, more battle-tested side with every reason to be furious. Recommendation: Seattle over Jacksonville

 

L.A. Chargers -4 over Miami

1:00 PM ET. This is a great setup for the Chargers to get right and a terrible one for Miami to stop the bleeding. These two teams may have been linked forever by the 2020 draft, but right now they’re worlds apart in identity, discipline, and direction.

 

Miami blew a 17-0 lead last week to Carolina and has now lost four of five. That’s not a blip—it’s a team unraveling. They can’t run (19 rushing yards last week), they can’t stop the run (allowed 206 on the ground), and their injury list reads like a preseason depth chart. Tyreek Hill is done for the year, Tua’s dealing with hip and thumb issues, and the defense can’t get off the field. There’s no balance, no rhythm, and no sign that Mike McDaniel has an answer.

 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles just ran into two brick walls in a row and got smacked in the mouth. That’s fine—it happens. What matters is that this is a Harbaugh team that doesn’t stay down long. The penalties, the protection issues, the drive-killing mistakes—they’re all fixable. What isn’t fixable is soft, and Miami is soft. The Chargers rank top five in yards per drive, Herbert’s still completing 70% of his passes despite chaos around him, and Harbaugh’s 13-5 against the spread as a favorite with Herbert under center. That’s not luck—that’s structure.

 

Even with the backfield banged up, the Chargers’ offensive design is built around quick reads, misdirection, and high-efficiency passing. Herbert will be fine here. Miami’s secondary is a mess, its linebackers can’t cover, and its front seven gets bullied when asked to defend north-south football.

 

Tua will always give you flash, but right now, the Dolphins are running on fumes. They’ve lost their identity as a track team, and without Hill, they’re forced to play between the numbers—something they’ve never been comfortable doing.

 

The Chargers might not have the shine of September anymore, but this number is short because of a perception dip, not reality. Harbaugh’s team is physical, angry, and much better equipped for a bounce-back than Miami is to stop the slide. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers -4

 

Cincinnati +15 over Green Bay

4:25 PM ET. There are blowouts, and then there are overreactions. This is the latter. The Packers are a fine football team with a fresh coat of paint, a bye week to rest, and a head coach who can scheme it up. What they are not is the type of team that should be spotting two touchdowns and a hook to anyone in this league, let alone a Bengals team that still has NFL talent across the board.

 

Joe Flacco steps in, and while the memes will write themselves, the veteran isn’t some washed-up arm dragged off a couch. He was Comeback Player of the Year not even two seasons ago. The man can still read a defense, throw a deep out, and manage a game. He’s also facing a Packers defense that looked gassed before the bye—blown coverages, missed tackles, and 436 yards allowed to Dallas before stumbling into overtime. Rest helps, sure, but this isn’t the ‘85 Bears we’re talking about.

 

Meanwhile, Zac Taylor’s Bengals have been the league’s punching bag for three weeks running, and that’s exactly why we’re here. The market has completely written them off. Nobody wants them. You think the locker room doesn’t know that? Cincinnati has been flat-out embarrassed, and teams that have been dragged through the mud for three straight weeks often show up with a little venom in their veins. That’s especially true when a veteran QB like Flacco walks in—someone who’s seen everything, doesn’t panic, and instantly commands a room.

 

Green Bay’s offense is efficient but hardly explosive. Jordan Love has looked sharp in stretches, but the Packers still lean on a patchwork offensive line and a running game that’s averaging just 3.3 yards a carry. Now they’re supposed to win by more than two touchdowns? They couldn’t even close out Cleveland a few weeks ago, or Dallas for that matter.

 

This is a classic “too many points” game. The Bengals are a wreck, yes, but NFL teams rarely stay down forever. Flacco gives them a baseline of competence, and that’s all it takes to hang inside this inflated number. Recommendation: Cincinnati +15

 

San Francisco +3 over Tampa Bay

4:25 PM ET. San Francisco is a team defined by grit and depth, not glamour. The 49ers enter this one banged up at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy sidelined yet again and Mac Jones nursing both knee and oblique injuries. On paper, that screams “lay the points to Tampa Bay,” especially with the Buccaneers riding high off a thrilling 38-35 win over Seattle. Baker Mayfield threw for 379 yards and two touchdowns in that game, looking every bit like an MVP candidate and pairing seamlessly with rookie star Emeka Egbuka.

 

That’s the story the market is buying. The sharp money sees something different. San Francisco has been quietly dominant on the road, now 3-0 with three close wins under their belt. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is adaptable and patient; Kendrick Bourne carved up the Rams last week for 142 yards with Jones playing through pain. That chemistry is real, and it matters when matchups are tight. The 49ers can win in multiple ways—control the clock with the run, take smart shots downfield, and let a disciplined defense keep Tampa Bay in check.

 

Yes, the Bucs’ passing attack is prolific, especially without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in action. But San Francisco’s defense has a blueprint for this offense, holding Tampa Bay to 215 total yards in their last meeting without Evans and Godwin. The overreaction from the market is palpable—the public is focused on Mayfield’s heroics, not the 49ers’ resilience. The last four meetings have gone San Francisco’s way, with the Bucs covering only twice. These are tight contests, and points in this spread are firmly on the table.

 

The 49ers are a team built for adversity. Injuries, travel, and tough matchups don’t flinch them—they find ways to win. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s four victories have been by a combined nine points, signaling vulnerability despite the stats. Recommendation: San Francisco +3