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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Streaming: FOX

Michigan +4½ -110 over Oklahoma 

12:00 PM EST. If there was a stock exchange for college football teams, Michigan would have been halted for trading last Saturday. The Wolverines were dreadful against Western Michigan, needed a bizarre ending to escape 13-12 and celebrated a victory that probably felt more like surviving a car accident. Oklahoma, meanwhile, did exactly the opposite, destroying UTEP 51-0 and looking every bit like a team capable of making serious noise this season. One week later, Oklahoma is laying 4½ points in Ann Arbor. That is one hell of a Week 1 adjustment.

Before anybody saw a snap this season, Michigan was actually the favorite in this matchup in the early markets. Now Oklahoma is favored by more than a field goal. What changed? We watched Michigan play one terrible football game and Oklahoma play one nearly perfect one. That's it. Maybe those performances revealed everything we need to know about both teams, but that's not usually how this works. The market has taken 60 minutes of football and dramatically repriced two major programs. We'll happily bet against that reaction.

Michigan's offense was undeniably awful, and Bryce Underwood has to be much better. We're not going to dress that up. But lost in all the hysteria was a Wolverines defense that kept them alive despite spending an eternity on the field. Western Michigan managed only 12 points. That's important here because we're not asking Michigan to suddenly become an offensive juggernaut. We're getting 4½ points at the Big House in a game that figures to put enormous importance on every possession. If Michigan's defense keeps this thing close, those points become extremely valuable.

Oklahoma may turn out to be outstanding, but we're not paying full retail immediately after a 51-0 victory over UTEP. That's precisely when everyone wants to buy. Michigan just produced one of the ugliest wins you'll ever see, and that's precisely when nobody wants anything to do with them. Buy low, sell high. It isn't complicated. The spread is the great equalizer, and one miserable Saturday has transformed Michigan from the team laying points into a sizable home dog. We'll take the discount and gladly accept the 4½.

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