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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Streaming: CW

Montana St. -3½ -110 over Nevada

10:30 PM EST. Let's start with the number because it's impossible to ignore. Montana State is an FCS program going into Reno and laying 3½ points against an FBS team. If your immediate reaction is that Nevada has to be the play, you're certainly not alone. After all, Nevada just ran for 323 yards in an impressive season-opening victory over Western Kentucky, while Montana State has spent its first two games beating up on FCS competition. Nevada getting more than a field goal at home looks almost too generous. Our response is simple: oddsmakers aren't giving away money. If Nevada were really the obvious side here, why in the world is Montana State favored?

The mistake is treating Montana State like some ordinary FCS team simply because of the label attached to it. This is an established powerhouse coming off a national championship, and the Bobcats have legitimate talent throughout the roster. Justin Lamson accounted for more than 3,900 yards and 42 touchdowns last season, and he's surrounded by experienced weapons in Taco Dowler, Dane Steel and Adam Jones. Montana State also has an outstanding secondary, experienced linebackers and dangerous special teams. The difference between these two rosters isn't remotely as large as the letters FBS and FCS beside their names would lead casual bettors to believe.

Nevada's opening performance is also doing plenty of work here. The Wolf Pack looked physical, ran all over Western Kentucky and suddenly appear to be a team headed in the right direction. Maybe they are. But that's one game. We're not going to dramatically upgrade Nevada after 60 good minutes any more than we'd bury a team after one terrible afternoon. Jeff Choate's familiarity with Montana State makes for a nice storyline, but familiarity doesn't magically create the better roster. If anything, all the obvious arguments point toward taking Nevada and the points, yet the market continues to ask us to lay more than a field goal with the FCS team on the road. That gets our attention.

Sometimes a number is uncomfortable because it's wrong. Other times it's uncomfortable because it's telling you something. We believe this is the latter. Montana State isn't sneaking up on anybody, Nevada knows exactly what is coming, and the bookmakers still decided the Bobcats should be road favorites. We're not going to outsmart the number just because the letters FCS make -3½ look strange. Montana State may simply be the better football team, and we'll trust the market's original assessment rather than grabbing points with Nevada because it feels safer.

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