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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA

UCF +7 +100 over Pittsburgh

3:30 PM EST. Pittsburgh couldn't have scripted a better opening act. Mason Heintschel threw for 453 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception in a 59-14 demolition of Miami Ohio, and suddenly the Panthers look like an offensive machine. Performances like that get everyone's attention, particularly when the quarterback puts up video-game numbers. Our question is what we're supposed to do with that information now. Are we buying Pitt after virtually everything went perfectly, or are we taking a full touchdown with UCF while everybody is still staring at last week's box score? We'll take the latter.

UCF wasn't exactly stumbling around in its opener. The Knights scored 73 points, produced 560 yards and rushed for 360 while averaging nearly 10 yards per carry. Yes, it came against Bethune-Cookman, so we're not pretending those numbers transfer directly to Pittsburgh. What matters is that UCF has speed, multiple weapons and an offense capable of making this a very uncomfortable afternoon for the Panthers. Alonza Barnett III gives the Knights another dimension at quarterback, and if UCF can establish its running game, Pitt isn't going to have the ball all afternoon to put on another offensive exhibition.

Now to the number. UCF +7½ is available, but it costs -120, and we're not interested in laying 20 cents in a football game for that extra half-point. We'll sell the hook and take UCF +7 at even money. Yes, seven is an important number, but price matters too. Paying an additional 20 cents every time we want a little extra insurance is a great way to make the bookmaker very happy over the course of a season. We'll take our chances with the full touchdown and keep the vig out of the equation.

Pitt may very well win this game. That's not what we're betting. We're betting that the Panthers' spectacular opener has their stock sitting a little too high and that UCF has enough offensive firepower to stay attached. The spread is the great equalizer. Pitt has the home field, the quarterback getting all the attention and the prettier Week 1 résumé. They can have all of it. We'll take the touchdown at a fair price and side with the team getting very little attention.

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