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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Washington +120 over Baltimore

Andrew Alvarez (LHP – WSH, 3.34 ERA) vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP – BAL, 5.30 ERA)

7:05 PM EST. Washington offers value as a road dog and is worth a look,  in getting  behind Andrew Alvarez, who has quietly impressed since joining the Nationals' rotation. Through 32.1 innings, Alvarez owns a 3.34 ERA with an outstanding 2.73 FIP and 2.72 xFIP, suggesting his production is backed by legitimate underlying metrics. He's striking out 10.30 batters per nine innings while allowing just 0.56 home runs per nine, and his 56.8% ground-ball rate has helped limit damaging contact. Although he has yet to pitch beyond five innings in any start, he's allowed just five earned runs across his last four outings while posting a strong 17.8% strikeout-to-walk differential.

Trevor Rogers has struggled to find consistency for Baltimore despite flashes of quality stuff. The left-hander enters with a 5.30 ERA over 73.0 innings, although his 4.21 xERA and 4.25 FIP indicate he has pitched somewhat better than the surface numbers suggest. Rogers is averaging only 6.66 strikeouts per nine innings with a 62.9% strand rate, leaving little margin for error when runners reach base. Washington has handled left-handed pitching well enough to manufacture offense, while Baltimore's lineup has hit just .255 against southpaws over the past month and has struck out 25.7% of the time, a favorable matchup for Alvarez's swing-and-miss arsenal.

The edge for Washington lies in the value attached to the price. Alvarez has been the more effective pitcher in recent weeks, owns significantly stronger run-prevention indicators than Rogers, and has demonstrated an ability to keep the ball on the ground while missing bats. If the Nationals can get five solid innings from their rookie before turning it over to the bullpen, they have every opportunity to steal this game. With Baltimore's offense prone to strikeouts against left-handed pitching and Rogers still searching for consistency, Washington is a live road dogamd is more than  capable of pulling off the upset.

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