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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +165 over New York

Mike Paredes (RHP - MIN, 4.26 ERA)Gerrit Cole (RHP - NYY, 4.06 ERA)

7:05 PM EST. The Twins are full of value today on the road ,the gap between the two starting pitchers is much smaller than the betting line suggests. Mike Paredes has a 4.26 ERA over 25.1 innings, and while his underlying numbers (5.42 xERA, 5.44 FIP, 5.35 xFIP) indicate there is room for improvement, he has shown the ability to keep Minnesota competitive. Paredes has allowed just a .232 opponents' batting average, and his 3.20 BB/9 shows respectable command for a young starter. Minnesota has also been one of the more dangerous offensive clubs against right-handed pitching this season, with a lineup built around power and run production that is capable of providing early support on the road.

The Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole, but this version of the former Cy Young winner has not been nearly as dominant as bettors are accustomed to seeing. Cole enters with a 4.06 ERA across 37.2 innings, along with an 8.12 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, and 1.67 HR/9. His 3.60 xERA suggests he's pitched somewhat better than his ERA, but the elevated home run rate has been a concern and has prevented him from consistently working deep into games. While Cole still possesses elite swing-and-miss ability, Minnesota's lineup has enough power to capitalize if he falls behind in counts or leaves pitches over the middle of the plate.

This matchup is considerably more even than the odds imply, making Minnesota an attractive dog tonight. Cole still carries the reputation of an ace, but his current production has been far closer to league average than dominant, while Paredes has shown enough flashes to keep games close. When comparing the starters, there simply isn't a wide enough statistical gap to justify a heavily inflated price on New York. Minnesota has the offensive firepower to challenge any pitching staff, and if Paredes delivers a quality start, the Twins have every opportunity to pull off the upset. This is the type of matchup where backing the dog tonight is justified,  because the market appears to be pricing reputation rather than current performance

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