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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +195 over Baltimore

Brady Singer (RHP - CIN, 5.12 ERA)Trevor Rogers (LHP - BAL, 4.99 ERA)

7:10 PM EST. The Reds are an appealing reverse run line (-1.5) play at home tonight. Brady Singer has been pitching far better than his season ERA suggests. While his overall numbers sit at a 5.12 ERA, Singer has found his rhythm recently, posting a 2.33 ERA with 25 strikeouts over his last five starts. His season line includes 77.1 innings, 7.56 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.91 walks per nine, and although the 2.21 HR/9 has inflated his ERA, his recent command and ability to miss barrels have been much improved. Cincinnati has played its best baseball when Singer is working efficiently early, allowing its athletic lineup to dictate the pace of the game rather than having to play from behind.

Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers, who enters with a 4.99 ERA over 79.1 innings. His underlying numbers are somewhat stronger (4.06 xERA and 3.99 FIP), but he has still allowed consistent traffic on the bases with a .293 BABIP while striking out just 6.92 batters per nine innings. Rogers has generally done a respectable job limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9), but facing Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park presents a much different challenge. The Reds have built their offense around speed, power, and aggressive baserunning, and they have the ability to pressure left-handed pitching by creating scoring opportunities both on the bases and with extra-base hits.

This is a spot where Cincinnati offers value to win by multiple runs. Singer's recent form is significantly better than his season ERA indicates, and if he continues to pitch the way he has over the past month, the Reds hold the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Cincinnati's offense is well-suited to its home park, where one swing can quickly change the complexion of a game, while Baltimore's lineup has been inconsistent on the road against quality right-handed pitching. With Singer carrying momentum into this start and the Reds capable of generating crooked numbers offensively, Cincinnati is a worthwhile plus-money position, especially with the market over-valuing Baltimore on the road and still pricing Singer based on his season-long ERA rather than his current form.

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