Pinnacle   +115   BET365   +115   Sportsinteraction   +115  888port   +115

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Pittsburgh +115 over Minnesota

Target Field – Minneapolis, MN

2:10 PM ET. There are pitchers who win despite mediocrity, and pitchers who lose despite quality. Mitch Keller is the latter. He’s 3–10, which scares off casual bettors in a hurry. But if you scratch the surface, you find one of the unluckiest arms in baseball—a guy doing everything right and wearing it in the L column because the Pirates’ offense is MIA half the time.

Keller’s ERA (3.58) isn’t just cosmetic. His FIP (3.40), SIERA (4.10), and xERA (3.81) all confirm he’s pitching like a legit top-half starter. He gets grounders (45%), limits walks, and misses bats. There is nothing fluky about the profile.

Stack that up against Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richardson. Sure, he’s won three in a row, but look closer—his 4.09 ERA comes with an even worse 4.68 SIERA and a puny 0.8 WAR. The biggest tell? A 30% ground-ball rate that leaves him dependent on batted-ball luck.

This is a classic mismatch dressed up by narratives. Woods Richardson’s superficial “hot streak” and the Twins’ Wild Card push are inflating the price. Meanwhile, Keller’s record and the Pirates’ reputation are suppressing it. We live for these setups—where the better pitcher is taking a plus number because nobody wants to click the button.

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Pinnacle   -1½ +160   BET365    -1½ +160   Sportsinteraction   -1½ +160  888port   -1½ +160

Posted at 10:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Yankees -1½ +160 over Chicago Cubs

Yankee Stadium – Bronx, NY

1:35 PM ET . We talk often about zig-zags in baseball, and this series is practically the instructional video on how those setups develop. Friday, the Yankees bombed the Cubs into submission in an 11–0 laugher, so the market predictably piled onto New York in Game 2, especially with Max Fried on the bump. Chicago promptly reminded everyone this is still baseball, taking an 8–5 win behind Matthew Boyd. So here we are again—sentiment swinging the other way, and that’s when we zag back.

Today’s pitching matchup is exactly the type that creates overreaction. On the surface, Chicago’s Sh?ta Imanaga and his shiny 2.80 ERA look like a massive edge over New York’s Will Warren and his bloated 4.70. The public sees that and salivates over another Cubs ticket. But baseball isn’t played on the surface, and the deeper numbers are screaming that Imanaga is running on borrowed time.

Imanaga has been living off a .201 BABIP and an 87% strand rate—both absurd outliers that inevitably normalize. His xERA is 4.20, nearly a run and a half worse than his actual mark. That’s not just a mild regression flag—that’s a full-on siren.

Warren, meanwhile, is the opposite case. A .329 BABIP and a low strand rate have been masking his true performance. His xERA sits at 3.56, nearly a run lower than what the public thinks he is. You can see why the Yankees are still favored despite the apparent “mismatch.” The oddsmakers know the luck splits here are profound.

And then there’s the matter of lineups. The Yankees are built to capitalize on regression pitchers—when contact falls in or mistakes catch too much plate, this lineup can pile up crooked numbers quickly. If Imanaga’s magic act runs out in the Bronx, the Bombers are perfectly equipped to turn this into another rout.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

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