San Diego @ Milwaukee
San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee

Posted at 12:50 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ 130 BET365 -1½ +130 Sportsinteraction -1½ +130  888Sport -1½ +135

San Diego -1½ +130 over Milwaukee

7:40 PM EST. Dylan Cease (RHP - SD) lost a mph-plus off his fastball last year and it made him just a skosh more hittable. Really, that was the only significant skills change between this and his ace-like 2022, as xERA and skills validate. It's obvious that 2022 is the outlier stat-wise (thanks, hit%/strand%) and he'll never be a WHIP monster, but if the heater cooperates, a return to 2022-23 xERA is attainable. In 16 innings this year, Cease has 20 K’s against six walks with a WHIP of 0.84. Dude is really dealing it for a San Diego team that we may have grossly underestimated before the season began and that is playing great ball. We also get to fade one of the worst starters in the game here.  

Wade Miley (LHP - MIL) did not factor into the decision in Wednesday's win over the Reds, allowing one run on one hit and two walks over four innings. Wade Miley is 37 years old. In that aforementioned win over Cinci last week, he didn’t strike out even one batter. Zero strikeouts in an era where strikeouts are plentiful even for average pitchers. Last year Miley landed on the IL twice (lat, shoulder), yet somehow posted his third straight sub-3.40 ERA despite third straight year of weak skills. Last year’s luck driven campaign was held together with extreme hit and strand rate fortune, as his swing and miss rate sunk to career lows. Wade Miley is the epitome of several blowups waiting to happen. San Diego -125 is great value but we don’t spot juice in baseball games so our play is San Diego on the run-line. 

Sherwood

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Our Pick

San Diego -1½ +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Pittsburgh @ N.Y. Mets
Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +107   BET365 +100 Sportsinteraction +100 888Sport  +100

Pittsburgh +107 over N.Y. Mets

7:10 PM EST. Jose Quintana (LHP - NYM) picked up his first win of the season in his last outing versus the Braves last Wednesday, but even a blind squirrel will find a nut every once in a while, and we’ll note the Mets also put up 16 runs in that effort. Quintana wasn’t great either, by the way, as he gave up three earned runs on five hits while walking two in 5.1 innings pitched. The free passes have been an issue so far for the 35-year-old southpaw, as he has given up eight walks in his 15.2 IP across three starts while striking out 12. Those strikeout numbers, while modest, look to be on the high side as well, as they are supported by a very weak 6.3% swing and miss rate. Quintana is walking guys, giving up hits, and not generating whiffs. Dude is playing with fire, and it’s only a matter of time until he gets burned.

Meanwhile, the Pirates will try to rebound after dropping the opener in this series yesterday, 6-3, in a game that the Bucs went up 3-0 in before giving it right back and then allowing three runs in the bottom of the eighth to drop their record to 11-6. Pittsburgh will send out Jaren Jones (RHP - PIT) for his fourth turn of the year after he was saddled with the loss in his last start last Thursday versus the Phillies. Jones was pretty good in that start where he gave up three runs over 6.1 innings while punching out eight Phillies, but the Pirates just couldn't muster many runs in that game. Jones brings a tidy 0.94 WHIP, a 25:2 strikeout-to-ball ratio, and an uber-elite 18.9% swing and miss rate into this game tonight, but he is just 1-2. Jones has looked the part of a front-line starter thus far, despite losing his last two turns, although both of those appearances were quality starts, which is another good reminder that while wins and losses are overvalued in the market, they very often do not tell the whole story. However, they do allow us to find value in pitchers such as Jones, who is so much better than Quintana that the former must be backed as an underdog to such a stiff as the latter.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Pittsburgh +107 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.14)

Cincinnati @ Seattle
Cincinnati +116 over Seattle

Posted at 10:15 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +116   BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +110 888Sport  +110

Cincinnati +116 over Seattle

9:40 PM EST. Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) took the loss in his last turn versus the Brewers, but it wasn’t a total disaster despite giving up six earned runs across his six innings pitched, as he only walked one and struck out nine. In his first two turns, Greene had not allowed more than two runs, and while it is early, his xERA clocks in at 2.53, which is lower than the 4.86 he sports on the surface. Furthermore, Greene has been a bit unlucky, as he’s on the wrong side of fortune in both his strand rate (66%) and his Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) (.308). Greene’s surface stats might scare away some in the market today, but we are not going to be deterred by sticking with him for another start, as he moves on from one of the hottest-hitting teams in baseball to one that is currently swinging a wet pool noodle at the plate.

Logan Gilbert (RHP - SEA) is among one of the best young arms in the game, and truth be told, as an underdog, he is a pitcher that we’d consider taking a long look at any time he took the mound in such a situation. However, that is not the case here, as the Mariners are favored in a range that might be a bit too spendy for a team that can’t score runs. Even if Gilbert is great, and that’s a realistic possibility, the M’s are still the second-worst team in all over baseball behind only the Twins versus right-handed pitching, as they are hitting a puny .203 thus far. The M’s put up nine runs last night to take the opener 9-3, but that is by far their largest output of runs in a single game this season, and they could only muster seven total in their three games versus the Cubs last weekend. If the Mariners hang another crooked number tonight, so be it, but the juice that must be paid to find out is not worth the squeeze.

Sherwood

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Our Pick

Cincinnati +116 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.32)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday010.00-2.00
Last 30 Days19290.00-10.20
Season to Date19290.00-10.20