BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cincinnati -1½ +195 over Baltimore

Brady Singer (RHP - CIN, 5.12 ERA)Trevor Rogers (LHP - BAL, 4.99 ERA)

7:10 PM EST. The Reds are an appealing reverse run line (-1.5) play at home tonight. Brady Singer has been pitching far better than his season ERA suggests. While his overall numbers sit at a 5.12 ERA, Singer has found his rhythm recently, posting a 2.33 ERA with 25 strikeouts over his last five starts. His season line includes 77.1 innings, 7.56 strikeouts per nine innings, and 2.91 walks per nine, and although the 2.21 HR/9 has inflated his ERA, his recent command and ability to miss barrels have been much improved. Cincinnati has played its best baseball when Singer is working efficiently early, allowing its athletic lineup to dictate the pace of the game rather than having to play from behind.

Baltimore counters with Trevor Rogers, who enters with a 4.99 ERA over 79.1 innings. His underlying numbers are somewhat stronger (4.06 xERA and 3.99 FIP), but he has still allowed consistent traffic on the bases with a .293 BABIP while striking out just 6.92 batters per nine innings. Rogers has generally done a respectable job limiting home runs (1.02 HR/9), but facing Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park presents a much different challenge. The Reds have built their offense around speed, power, and aggressive baserunning, and they have the ability to pressure left-handed pitching by creating scoring opportunities both on the bases and with extra-base hits.

This is a spot where Cincinnati offers value to win by multiple runs. Singer's recent form is significantly better than his season ERA indicates, and if he continues to pitch the way he has over the past month, the Reds hold the edge in the starting pitching matchup. Cincinnati's offense is well-suited to its home park, where one swing can quickly change the complexion of a game, while Baltimore's lineup has been inconsistent on the road against quality right-handed pitching. With Singer carrying momentum into this start and the Reds capable of generating crooked numbers offensively, Cincinnati is a worthwhile plus-money position, especially with the market over-valuing Baltimore on the road and still pricing Singer based on his season-long ERA rather than his current form.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play:

BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +165 over New York

Mike Paredes (RHP - MIN, 4.26 ERA)Gerrit Cole (RHP - NYY, 4.06 ERA)

7:05 PM EST. The Twins are full of value today on the road ,the gap between the two starting pitchers is much smaller than the betting line suggests. Mike Paredes has a 4.26 ERA over 25.1 innings, and while his underlying numbers (5.42 xERA, 5.44 FIP, 5.35 xFIP) indicate there is room for improvement, he has shown the ability to keep Minnesota competitive. Paredes has allowed just a .232 opponents' batting average, and his 3.20 BB/9 shows respectable command for a young starter. Minnesota has also been one of the more dangerous offensive clubs against right-handed pitching this season, with a lineup built around power and run production that is capable of providing early support on the road.

The Yankees counter with Gerrit Cole, but this version of the former Cy Young winner has not been nearly as dominant as bettors are accustomed to seeing. Cole enters with a 4.06 ERA across 37.2 innings, along with an 8.12 K/9, 2.39 BB/9, and 1.67 HR/9. His 3.60 xERA suggests he's pitched somewhat better than his ERA, but the elevated home run rate has been a concern and has prevented him from consistently working deep into games. While Cole still possesses elite swing-and-miss ability, Minnesota's lineup has enough power to capitalize if he falls behind in counts or leaves pitches over the middle of the plate.

This matchup is considerably more even than the odds imply, making Minnesota an attractive dog tonight. Cole still carries the reputation of an ace, but his current production has been far closer to league average than dominant, while Paredes has shown enough flashes to keep games close. When comparing the starters, there simply isn't a wide enough statistical gap to justify a heavily inflated price on New York. Minnesota has the offensive firepower to challenge any pitching staff, and if Paredes delivers a quality start, the Twins have every opportunity to pull off the upset. This is the type of matchup where backing the dog tonight is justified,  because the market appears to be pricing reputation rather than current performance

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Play: